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Measuring the Effectiveness of Special Operations for More Information on This Publication, Visit C O R P O R A T I O N LINDA ROBINSON, DANIEL EGEL, RYAN ANDREW BROWN Measuring the Effectiveness of Special Operations For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2504 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0174-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Special Operations Forces (SOF) Measures of Effec- tiveness, sponsored by U.S. Army Special Operations Command. The purpose of the project was to develop a system of metric-capture and evidence-based assessments to evaluate the success (or failure) of various special operations missions and demonstrate how Army special oper- ations forces contribute to theater and national security objectives. A companion volume—Linda Robinson, Daniel Egel, and Ryan Andrew Brown, Measuring the Effectiveness of Special Operations: Appendixes, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-2504/1-A, 2019—pro- vides the appendixes. This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and complies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementa- tion guidance set forth in DoD Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures, Tables, and Boxes .....................................................vii Summary .......................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ............................................................. xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Requirements for a SOF-Specific Operational Assessment ................... 2 Addressing General Assessment Challenges .................................... 4 Addressing SOF-Specific Assessment Challenges .............................. 8 Research Approach ................................................................10 Organization of This Report ....................................................12 CHAPTER TWO Line of Effort–Based Assessment Approach ................................13 Pillars of Capability and SOF Core Activities .................................15 Typical Special Operations Forces Lines of Effort ........................... 20 Summary ...........................................................................25 CHAPTER THREE Measures of Effectiveness for SOF Assessment............................ 27 Develop, Enable, and Employ Partner Force ................................. 30 Precision Targeting ................................................................35 Influence via MISO...............................................................39 Influence via Civil Affairs Operations ......................................... 43 v vi Measuring the Effectiveness of Special Operations CHAPTER FOUR Seven-Step Assessment Process ................................................49 Step 1. Determine Objectives ....................................................51 Step 2. Identify Activities ........................................................55 Step 3. Define MOEs .............................................................59 Step 4. Develop Indicators and Collect Data ..................................61 Step 5. Conduct LOE-Specific Analysis ........................................67 Step 6. Consolidate Analysis .....................................................75 Step 7. Commander Review .....................................................79 Implementation ....................................................................81 CHAPTER FIVE Sample Assessment ..............................................................85 Scenario: Atropia ..................................................................85 Step 1. Determine Objectives ................................................... 87 Step 2. Identify Activities ....................................................... 88 Step 3. Define MOEs ............................................................ 90 Step 4. Develop Indicators and Collect Data ................................. 92 Step 5. Conduct Analysis ........................................................ 96 Step 6: Consolidate Analysis ................................................... 101 Step 7: Review ................................................................... 102 CHAPTER SIX Final Considerations .......................................................... 105 Preparing Operational Data for Assessment ................................. 105 Emerging Data Streams—Potential and Limits of Social Media ......... 109 Emerging Technologies—Making Sense of Unstructured Data .......... 111 Steady-State and Preventive Operations ...................................... 114 Conclusion ....................................................................... 115 ONLINE APPENDIXES Available for download at www.rand.org/t/RR2504 A. Assessment Toolbox B. Criteria for Measure of Effectiveness Selection Abbreviations ................................................................... 117 References ....................................................................... 121 Figures, Tables, and Boxes Figures S.1. Seven Steps of Special Operations Forces Operational- Level Assessment .....................................................xii 4.1. Seven Steps of Special Operations Forces Operational- Level Assessment .....................................................51 4.2. Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria for Assessment Data Streams ................................................................65 4.3. Analytic Considerations for Assessment ..........................71 4.4. Expanding Sphere of Influence on Jolo Island, 2006–2007 ...75 4.5. Assessment Battle Rhythm .........................................82 5.1. Monthly Trajectory of Media Sentiment—Influence via CAO (LOE 4) ...................................................... 100 5.2. Introductory Assessment Slide, SOJTF-Atropia 2020 March–August ..................................................... 102 Tables 2.1. Four Pillars of SOF Capability .....................................17 2.2. Doctrinal SOF Core Activities .....................................18 2.3. Lines of Effort, Objectives, Value Propositions, and SOF Core Activities ........................................................21 3.1. Measures of Effectiveness for Develop, Enable, and Employ Partner Force ...............................................31 3.2. Measures of Effectiveness for Precision Targeting ...............37 vii viii Measuring the Effectiveness of Special Operations 3.3. Measures of Effectiveness for Influence via Military Information Support Operations ..................................41 3.4. Measures of Effectiveness for Influence via Civil Affairs Operations ............................................................45 4.1. Mission Tracker Requirements .................................... 56 5.1. SOJTF-Atropia Mission Tracker Spreadsheets, LOE 1 ........ 90 5.2. Monthly Media Reports Spreadsheet—Influence via MISO, LOE 3 ........................................................95 5.3. Population Direct Support, to Enemy or Friendly, Spreadsheet—Influence via MISO, LOE 3 ..................... 96 5.4. SOJTF-Atropia Mission Tracker—Influence via CAO to Support Friendly Entity, LOE 4 .................................. 98 5.5. Monthly Sentiment Toward Friendly and Enemy Entities—Influence via CAO, LOE 4 ............................ 99 6.1. Key Elements of a Standardized Weekly Situation Report for Tactical Units ......................................... 107 6.2. Headquarters Information Requirements for Operational-Level
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