Baja California Sur Aquifer, Renewable Energy, and Desalination Project: Preliminary Assessment of Water Resources for Los Cabos and La Paz Municipalities

Home , Baja California Sur

By Magdalena A K Muir, Kyle Leinweber, Alfonso Rivera & Andres Arandav

A Fulbright Research Presentation and Discussion with Municipality of Los Cabos and Centro Mario Molina and SCI Energy Lab on March 24, 2014 Presentation and Discussion 1. Overview of Baja California Sur Aquifer Renewable Energy Desalination Project 2. Energy and water nexus in Baja region 3. Baja California Sur precipitation, aquifers and hydraulic sub-basins maps 4. Aquifers and other water resources and sustainability for quantity and quality 5. Presentation by Centro Mario Molina on water resource calculation methodology 6. Discussion of presentation 7. Possible next steps Energy and Water Nexus • Baja California Sur is arid region that relies on precipitation for water resources. • This precipitation becomes groundwater and is collected in different aquifers. • There is a public desalination concession in Los Cabos (2006). A second desalination concession has been proposed for Los Cabos, and an initial concession has been proposed for La Paz. • Many hotels, golf courses and marinas have private desalination and waste water treatment. • Most electricity is generated from diesel. • While water resources and desalination are required to support economic growth, renewable energy has a role in those water resources. Baja California Sur Precipitation 1971 to 2000 Baja California Sur Precipitation 2011 Baja California Sur Hydrologic Sub-basins Baja California Sur State Aquifers Baja California Sur Aquifers • Further knowledge required of capacity and dimensions of aquifers for the Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz, including issues such as whether the aquifers are connected as aquifer systems. • Sustainability of aquifer and aquifer systems can be considered for quantity factors (i.e., flow volumes, recharge, discharge, time, scale, permeability, storage, pressure). • Sustainability of the aquifers and aquifer based on quality (i.e., land-based and coastal contamination, saline intrusion, and diffusion through aquifers and possibly connected aquifer systems). Baja California Sur Study Region: Los Cabos and La Paz Municipalities Geology of Baja California Study Region Aquifers in Municipality of Los Cabos . San Jose del Cabo: Surface land use and possible contamination of San Jose Aquifer

San Jose del Cabo Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality

Los Cabos Municipality receives water from a desalination project operated under a concession. Private desalination used to meet all or part of water demand for many hotels, resorts, golf courses and marinas located in Cabos San Lucas, San Jose Del Cabos, and the tourism corridor between these two urban centers. Private Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality La Paz Basin and Elavation Map La Paz Basin Geology Model La Paz Basin Precipitation Model Las Paz Basin Distribution of Recharge Areas Aquifers in Municipality of La Paz La Paz Aquifers • La Paz Aquifer in basin to the south and south east of Municipality of La Paz. • The precipitation model shows that the heaviest precipitation occurs in higher areas away from coast. • Precipitation runoff will flow towards the lower lands near La Paz. • Best area for groundwater in basin may be in southeast fractured granite. • Vulnerability to saline intrusion in coastal areas of La Paz basin. Proposed Gold Mining Projects in Sierra De La Luna Mountains and Aquifer/Basin Implications • Estimated 1.7 million ounces of gold, worth more than $2 billion. • Argonaut Gold San Antonio mine is largest with surface area of 46,000 hectares. • Open pit heap leach mine with 7 hills tops and 200 M tonnes rock processed. • 50 M tonnes rock to be processed with cyanide, 150 M tonnes piled in exposed hills. • Naturally occurring arsenic in rock. • Water concessions from nearby ranches, or use groundwater, seawater or desalinated water. Argonaut Gold San Antonio Mining Concession San Antonio Mine and Aquifer Impacts • Historic mining and contamination in mountains and San Juan de Los Planes basin. • Size and nature of proposed gold mining operations immense. • San Juan de Los Planes is nearby agricultural region, and possible contamination risks for aquifer. • Possible risks to La Paz Aquifer? • Could it affect San Jose Aquifer? Concept San Lucas Aquifer (1) San Jose Aquifer(2) Santiago Aquifer(2) (Mm3/Yr) (Mm3/Yr) (Mm3/Yr)

Average recharge 0.5 24 24.5 Committed natural discharge 3 4.6

Volume of ground water 26.909 15.090517 concession

Volume extracted in 26.2 13.2 technical study Average available 0 0 4.809483 groundwater Deficit (5.909) 0 Future authorized 12.74* concession Future deficit (7.9)* Table re Possible Available Groundwater in Los Cabos Municipality The table is based on 1 IMPLAN LOS CABOS (May 4 th 2012) , and 2 Segunda Actualizacion del Plan Director de Desarrollo Urbano, San Jose Del Cabo y Cabo San Lucas B.C.S.2040 (Abril 2013). The table also does not address the sustainability of the aquifers, or quality issues in relation to these aquifers. * Based on previously authorized concession for Cabo Cortez resort, 35% of whose water needs were proposed to be met by the aquifer, and 65% be met by privately owned desalination. Though this resort was cancelled in 2011, a subsequent similar proposal has been made so this number is included to illustrate possible future water uses for this aquifer. Centro Mario Molina Background

• “The Mario Molina Center is a bridge of practical solutions between science and public policies on energy and the environment to foster sustainable development”

The Mario Molina Center for Strategic Studies on Energy and Environment is a non-profit independent association, constituted in 2004 to give continuity and consolidate in Mexico the activities that throughout his life, Professor Mario Molina has accomplished. Its main purpose is to find practical, realistic and in-depth solutions to problems related with protecting the environment, the use of energy and prevention of climate change, in order to foster sustainable development. Promoting sustainable The target is to achieve urban policies to boost sustainable planning and economic growth socially management of cities, urban equitable and development promoting low environmentally carbon intensity schemes, responsible. rational use of natural resources, particularly water and energy. I.2 Methodology (determination of gaps) Interpretation of results Availability calculated Availability reported (real) (theoretical) D = 34.5 Mm3/yr D = 29.29 Mm3/yr Availability calculated ≠ Availability reported

• The production (extraction) valuesreported by the OO are greater than the volumes obtained following the methodology of calculation of CONAGUA.

• Surface water is not likely to benefit in full, however, to establish a baseline was considered the theoretical value obtained from the calculation methodology.

• Even when there is no water available in the aquifer, we continue drawing water to supply the city.

Availability = Vol REPDA + D surface I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

Analysis bases (variation of water availability) With the calculated values was obtained varying the availability for each city (∆D%) considering climate change scenarios.

Changes in water availability scenario A2 Availability Year Period[yr] ∆D [Mm 3] ∆D [%] Mm 3 2013 0 42.72 ------2018 5 39.05 -3.67 -8.6% 2028 10 23.21 -15.84 -40.6% 2048 20 29.01 5.80 25.0% 2078 30 34.45 5.43 18.7% Water availability 60.00

3 40.00

Mm 20.00 0.00 2009 2010 2011 2013 2018 2028 2048 2078 Year

TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. / www.grupotaaf.com I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

Analysis bases (variation of water availability) With the calculated values was obtained varying the availability for each city (∆D%) considering climate change scenarios.

Changes in water availability scenario A2

Availability Year Period [Years] ∆D [Mm 3] ∆D theoretical (%) theoretical[Mm 3] 2013 0 34.18 ------2018 5 32.28 -1.9 -5.60% 2028 10 22.86 -9.42 -29.20% 2048 20 21.46 -1.4 -6.10% 2078 30 21.74 0.27 1.30%

Water availability [Mm 3] 40.00 34.18

30.00 22.86 21.46 21.74 32.28 20.00

10.00

0.00 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2072 2082

TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. / www.grupotaaf.com I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

Analysis bases (variation of water availability To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it was applied the theoretical ∆D% for each year to the amount of water produced by the OO in 2010. Variation of availability A1B scenario “Los Cabos” AvailabilityM Year ∆D(%) m3 Variation in the availability of scenario cc 2010 34.51* 2011 -0.8% 34.25 45 2013 0.0% 34.25 2018 10.4% 37.82 40 3 2028 8.9% 41.19 2048 -13.0% 35.84 35

Mm A2 2078 -18.2% 29.31 30 A1B Variation of availability A2 scenario “Los Cabos” 25 AvailabilityM Year ∆D(%) m3 20 2010 34.51* 2010 2011 2013 2018 2028 2048 2078 2011 -14.8% 29.40 2013 38.6% 40.75 To calculate the gap variation, it was considered 2018 -8.6% 37.25 the availability of the more adverse scenario (in 2028 -40.6% 22.14 this case A2). 2048 25.0% 27.68 2078 18.7% 32.86 *Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OOMSAPAS I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps) Basis of analysis (demand calculation)

Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per day and drinking water coverage provided by the OO Los Cabos (OOMSAPAS), it was calculated the water demand [Mm 3/year]

Year PARAMETER UNIT 2013 2018 2023 2028 Population Inhab. 253,577 280,878 311,119 344,616 Drinking water coverage % 89.90% 90.80% 91.70% 92.50% Annual production l/s 1,172 1,313 1,486 1,640 Annual production Mm 3/año 36.96 41.39 46.3 51.73 Endowment l/inhab*día 444 444 444 444 consumption l/inhab*día 282 282 282 282 Annual increase in population inhab. 5,133 5,686 6,298 6,976 Required extraction l/s 26.4 29.25 32.39 35.88 Variation of drinking water coverage % 89.86% 90.85% 91.74% 92.54% I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

Analysis bases (variation of water availability) With the calculated values was obtained varying the availability for each city (∆D%) considering climate change scenarios.

Changes in water availability scenario A2

Water availability [Mm 3] 40.00 34.18

30.00 22.86 21.46 21.74 32.28 20.00

10.00

0.00 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2072 2082

TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. / www.grupotaaf.com I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

Analysis bases (variation of water availability)

To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it was applied the theoretical ∆D% for each year to the amount of water produced by the OO in 2013. Variation of availability A1B scenario “La Paz” Variation in the availability of scenario cc Year ∆D [%] Availability[Mm 3]

2013 25.48* 31.0 2018 9.46% 27.89 29.0 2028 0.57% 28.05 27.0 2048 -6.61% 26.2 Disponibilidad 25.0 (A2)

2078 -21.09% 20.67 3 23.0

Mm Disponibilidad 21.0 (A1B) Variation of availability A2 scenario “La Paz” 19.0 17.0 3 Year ∆D [%] Availability [Mm ] 15.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2013 25.48* Año 2018 -5.60% 24.07 2028 -29.20% 17.05 To calculate the gap variation, it was considered 2048 -6.10% 16 2078 1.30% 16.21 the availability of the more adverse scenario (in this case A2). *Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OO SAPA I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps) Basis of analysis (demand calculation)

Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per day and drinking water coverage provided by the OO La Paz (SAPA), it was calculated the water demand [Mm 3/year]

Year PARAMETER UNIT 2013 2018 2023 2028 Population inhab. 235,268 273,005 316,795 367,609 Drinkingwatercoverage % 97.50% 97.90% 98.20% 98.40% Annualproduction l/s 953 1,106 1,283 1,489 Annualproduction Mm 3/año 30.06 34.88 40.47 46.96 Endowment l/inhab*day 350 350 350 350 consumption l/inhab*day 210 210 210 210 Annualincreasein population Inhab. 6,897 8,003 9,287 10,777 Requiredextraction l/s 27.94 32.42 37.62 43.66

Variation of drinking water coverage % 97.52% 97.86% 98.16% 98.41% I.2 Methodology (determination of gaps) Results

Gaps 50.0 47.0

45.0 40.5 40.0

34.9 35.0

30.1 47 63 30.0 31 % % Mm 25.5 15 % 3 25.0 % 24.1 21.26 20.0 17.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

- 2013 2018 2023 2028

Demanda anual Disponibilidad (A2) Gaps II. 1 Identifying actions (benchmarking)

Micrometering (%) National average coverage 99 99 47.4% CONAGUA 94 96 97 100 85 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 30 17 20 Información 10 PIGOO 2011 0 Puerto La Paz Celaya Mazatlán Tecate Puerto Saltillo Los Cabos Peñasco Vallarta

Expenditure on water(rate of 20 m3)

$323.80 $350.00 $300.00 $240.84 $250.00 $210.40 $177.80 $179.83 $200.00 $162.80 $150.00 $122.92 $/month $100.00 $67.50 $50.00 $0.00 Mazatlán Puerto Puerto Saltillo Celaya Tecate Los Cabos La Paz Information Vallarta Peñasco PIGOO 2011 Baja California Aquifer Renewable Energy Desalination Project: Possible Next Steps

Develop further understanding of aquifers and other water sources for Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz.

Explore desalination and waste water treatment projects, and role of renewable energy, in public and private projects in Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz. Acknowledgements for Presentation

IMPLAN Los Cabos for digital maps, data, and information.

Centro Mario Molina for slides and presentation on water resources.

“Managing Arroyos in Los Cabos” by SCI Affiliated Researcher Eric Porse, in cooperation with IMPLAN Los Cabos . For further information contact: Dr. Magdalena A K Muir ([email protected]) Associate Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia Climate Center at Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York City, Visiting Scholar, Center Carbon-free Power Integration and Mangone Center for Marine Policy, University of Delaware, Research Associate, Arctic Institute of North America Associate Professor, Aarhus University & Centre for Energy Technologies

This presentation and research supported by Fulbright Canada under the Fulbright Canada- RBC Award; the Columbia Climate Center at the Earth Institute, Columbia University; the Center for Carbon-free Power Integration and the Mangone Center for Marine Policy in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware; and Aarhus University Herning and the Center for Energy Technologies .