Aquifers, Renewable Energy and Desalination in Baja Sur: Integrated Energy and Water Responses to Development and Climate Changes by Andrés Aranda Martínez , Centro Mario Molina Magdalena AK Muir , Associate Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia Climate Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University; Visiting Scholar , Center for Carbon-free Power Integration and Mangone Center for Marine Policy, University of Delaware; Researcher, AINA; and Associate Professor, Aarhus University Kyle Leinweber , Engineer in Training, Calgary for IWA International Water, Energy and Climate Conference 2014 in City, May 23, 2014 This is Fulbright Research for Sur Aquifer Desalination Renewable Energy Project Jointly Implemented with IMPLAN Los Cabos, Centro Mario Molina, SCI Energy Lab and Coastal and Marine Union (EUCC). Presentation and Discussion

1. Energy and Water Nexus for 2. Baja California Sur aquifers, hydraulic sub- basins and precipitation maps 3. Aquifers within Muncipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz 4. Renewable Energy and Desalination in Public and Private Sector in Baha California Sur 5. IMPLAN Los Cabos PDU 2040: The Water Case 6. Centro Mario Molina sustainable water case for Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz 7. Suggested Next Steps for Baja California Sur Aquifer Desalination Renewable Energy Project 8. Appendix (provided separately) Energy and Water Nexus • Baja California Sur is arid region that relies on primarily on precipitation for water resources. • This precipitation becomes groundwater and is collected in aquifers and aquifer systems. • There is a public desalination concession in Los Cabos (2006). A second desalination concession has been proposed for Los Cabos, and an initial concession has been proposed for La Paz. • Many hotels, golf courses and marinas have private desalination and waste water treatment. • Most electricity is generated by diesel generation. • While water resources and desalination are required to support economic growth, renewable energy has a role for water resources. CONAGUA Baja California Sur Hydrologic Sub-basins CONAGUA Baja California Sur State Aquifers CONAGUA Baja California Sur Precipitation 1971 to 2000 CONAGUA Baja California Sur Precipitation 2011 Baja California Sur Study Region: Los Cabos and La Paz Municipalities Geology of Baja California Study Region Baja California Sur Aquifers • Sustainability of aquifer and aquifer systems can be considered for quantity factors (i.e., flow volumes, recharge, discharge, time, scale, permeability, storage and pressure). • Sustainability of the aquifers and aquifer based on quality (i.e., land-based and coastal contamination, saline intrusion, and diffusion through aquifers and connected aquifer systems). • Further knowledge required of capacity and dimensions of aquifers for the Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz, including issues such as whether the aquifers are connected in aquifer system which has quantity and quality implications. CONAGUA Aquifer Clave No CONAGUA: Estimates of Aquifer Water Availability IMPLAN Los Cabos Baja California Sur Precipitation Aquifers in Municipality of Los Cabos . Aquifer Analysis: Porosity

Porosity is the = = − fraction (or percentage) of void space within Where: the aquifer : Porosity (-) : Volume of empty space (m^3) formation. : Volume of sample or aquifer (m^3) : Density of sample or medium Water can be (kg/m^3) stored in pores. :Density of rock particles (kg/m^3) Pores can be interconnected. Aquifer Analysis: Permeability

Permeability is the Darcy’s Law: property of a porous material to transmit = fluids under a μ pressure differential. Where: Flow of a fluid in : Volumetric flow rate (m^3/s) porous media : Permeability (m^2) characterized by μ : Viscosity (kg/(m*s) ) Darcy’s Law : Pressure (kg/(m*s^2)) = ( + + ) : i, j, and k are There is no direct unit vector components with relationship between respect to the directions of x, y, porosity and and z respectfully permeability Pore Contamination Diffusion of Contaminants

Diffusion is the Fick’s 2 nd Law natural phenomenon of a substance moving = from a state of high concentration to low. Where: Concentration is the : Diffusivity constant (m^2/s) : Concentration (mol/m^3) driving force. : Distance (m) Transmits : Time (s) contaminants through pores and fractures. Graphical Illustration of Diffusion San Jose del Cabo: Surface land use and possible contamination of San Jose Aquifer

San Jose del Cabo La Paz Aquifers La Paz aquifers is in basin to the south and south east of the Municipality of La Paz. The precipitation model shows that the heaviest precipitation occurs in higher areas away from coast. Precipitation runoff will flow towards the lower lands near La Paz. Best area for groundwater in basin may be in southeast fractured granite. Vulnerability to saline intrusion in coastal areas of La Paz basin. La Paz Basin Aquifer exploitation in La Paz Basin La Paz Basin and Elavation Map La Paz Basin Geology Model La Paz Basin Precipitation Model Las Paz Basin Distribution of Recharge Areas

Proposed Gold Mining Projects in Sierra De La Luna Mountains and Aquifer/Basin Implications • Estimated 1.7 million ounces of gold, which will be worth more than $2 billion. • Argonaut Gold San Antonio mine is largest with surface area of 46,000 hectares. • Open pit heap leach mine with 7 hills tops and 200 M tonnes rock to be processed. • 50 M tonnes rock to be processed with cyanide, 150 M tonnes piled in exposed hills. • Naturally occurring arsenic in rock. • Water concessions from nearby ranches, or use groundwater, seawater or desalinated water. Argonaut Gold San Antonio Mining Concession San Antonio Mine and Aquifer Impacts • Historic mining and contamination has occurred in Sierra De La Luna Mountains and San Juan de Los Planes basin. • Size and nature of current proposed gold mining operations is immense. • San Juan de Los Planes is nearby agricultural region, and possible contamination risks for aquifer. • Important questions are possible risks of proposed San Antonio Mine and other proposed mines to aquifers in the La Paz Basin and San Jose Aquifer that Los Cabos and La Paz municipalities depend upon. IMPLAN: Los Cabos Context

North America North West Mexico Baja Peninsula San José del Baja California Sur Estate Cabo Population: • : 128,057 • San José del Cabo: 87,488 • Total: 215,545

Surface: Cabo San • Cabo San Lucas: 3,641 Ha. Lucas • San José del Cabo: 4,234 Ha. • Corridor: 1,438 Ha. • Total: 9,313 Ha

Average annual temperature: • 18 to 22 Celsius

200 mm of rain per year

Main economic activity: • (12,621 hotel rooms available in the area)

Hurracains. • 1970 to 2010 = 20 events. Desalination and Renewable Energy Public and private desalination projects underway in the Municipality of Los Cabos. receives water from a desalination project operated under a concession, and a further concession is being considered. A public desalination project operated under a concession is being considered for the Municipality of La Paz. Subject to private finance and concession, Los Cabos is considering renewable energy project. Los Cabos uses hydrocarbons to generate power. Extensive private desalination projects in Los Cabos in tourism sector due to tariffs and water shortfalls. Large and small scale examples of renewable energy and desalination briefly explored. IMPLAN : Los Cabos Desalination Concession

Built in 2007 with an investment of $30 Million, it has been financed by the Fondo de Inversión en Infraestructura (FINFRA), a credit by the Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Públicos, S.N.C. (BANOBRAS) and Risk Capital Investment by (Grupo OHL). This is the first large scale desalination plant to be constructed in Mexico, and the Los Cabos Plant has a capacity of 17,280 m3/ day, 200 lts/s, which is satisfying the needs of approximately 50,000 persons. This is a reverse osmosis plant. Private Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality

Los Cabos Municipality receives water from a desalination project operated under a municipal concession. Private desalination used to meet all or part of water demand for many hotels, resorts, golf courses and marinas located in Cabos San Lucas, San Jose Del Cabos, and the tourism corridor between these two urban centers. Private Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality Desalination: Small Portable Solar Unit Desalination: Small Scale Solar Plant in Oman . Desalination: Large Scale Solar Energy Plant in UAE Integration of Renewable Energy and Desalination

Two models are suggested for how renewable energy may be used in public and private desalination projects in Baja California Sur: 1) Separate renewable energy facilities can be developed for each desalination project. This is more feasible for smaller desalination projects with energy storage, which are in an isolated location, or where the desalination technologies can use intermittent renewable energy. 2) Designated renewable energy can be provided from regional or municipal electricity grids and systems. This may be more suitable for larger desalination projects which require more electricity or where the desalination technologies benefit from a more consistent electricity supply. IMPLAN Los Cabos Los Cabos’ Municipal Planning Institute

LOS CABOS WATER CASE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT PLAN (PDU 2040) IMPLAN: Water Consumption

Population growth in Los Cabos, 2010. Production of water in Los Cabos, 2010.

Average consumption of water per inhabitant in Los Cabos: 369 litres/day.

National average consumption of water per inhabitant: 279 litres/day. (CONAGUA, 2009) IMPLAN Existing key elements Water treatment and reuse Water Sources Recycled Water System

What we have: What we have: 1 Desalintaion Plant 6 Water TreatmentPlants 10 Groundwater Wells 26 Linear Km. of Recycled Water Lines In what we use it? Drinking water for 2 In what we use it? cities 10 Golf Courses . IMPLAN Los Cabos: Long term Vision PDU 2040 I The open urban space as main structuring element of the city

The urban structure maintains its natural bed features such as permeable riverbed and does not transform their conditions and directions. The aim of urban planning in Los Cabos is to integrate the environment and its characteristics in the development of urban projects. Objective: Maintain the equilibrium of aquifers’ levels. Avoid over-exploitation of aquifers, moderating the operation of each of the aquifers at levels that allow recovery and maintenance.

Strategy: The implementation of Natural Sistems such as dams and other would allow more water collection and infiltration thus a wider spectrum of water management strategies . The estimated impact of infiltration is 352.000 m3 per year in the aquifer. San José Estuary

150 Km . of Linear Parks on Streams or dry beds . Urban systems in areas of extreme aridity and sustainable water management: Case for Los Cabos and La Paz

Selected slides extracted from complete proposal, available in the appendix of the presentation. Centro Mario Molina Background

“The Mario Molina Center is a bridge of practical solutions between science and public policies on energy and the environment to foster sustainable development”

The Mario Molina Center for Strategic Studies on Energy and Environment is a non-profit independent association, constituted in 2004 to give continuity and consolidate in Mexico the activities that throughout his life, Professor Mario Molina has accomplished. Its main purpose is to find practical, realistic and in-depth solutions to problems related with protecting the environment, the use of energy and prevention of climate change, in order to foster sustainable development. Promoting sustainable The target is to achieve urban policies to boost sustainable planning and economic growth socially management of cities, urban equitable and development promoting low environmentally carbon intensity schemes, responsible. rational use of natural resources, particularly water and energy. I.2 Methodology (determination of gaps)  Interpretation of results Availability calculated Availability reported (real) (theoretical) D = 34.5 Mm3/yr D = 29.29 Mm3/yr Availability calculated ≠ Availability reported

• The production (extraction) valuesreported by the OO are greater than the volumes obtained following the methodology of calculation of CONAGUA.

• Surface water is not likely to benefit in full, however, to establish a baseline was considered the theoretical value obtained from the calculation methodology.

• Even when there is no water available in the aquifer, we continue drawing water to supply the city.

Availability = Vol REPDA + D surface I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

 Analysis bases (variation of water availability) With the calculated values was obtained varying the availability for each city (∆D%) considering climate change scenarios.

Changes in water availability scenario A2 Availability Year Period[yr] ∆D [Mm 3] ∆D [%] Mm 3 2013 0 42.72 ------2018 5 39.05 -3.67 -8.6% 2028 10 23.21 -15.84 -40.6% 2048 20 29.01 5.80 25.0% 2078 30 34.45 5.43 18.7% Water availability 60.00

3 40.00

Mm 20.00 0.00 2009 2010 2011 2013 2018 2028 2048 2078 Year

TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. / www.grupotaaf.com I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

 Analysis bases (variation of water availability) With the calculated values was obtained varying the availability for each city (∆D%) considering climate change scenarios.

Changes in water availability scenario A2

Availability Year Period [Years] ∆D [Mm 3] ∆D theoretical (%) theoretical[Mm 3] 2013 0 34.18 ------2018 5 32.28 -1.9 -5.60% 2028 10 22.86 -9.42 -29.20% 2048 20 21.46 -1.4 -6.10% 2078 30 21.74 0.27 1.30%

Water availability [Mm 3] 40.00 34.18

30.00 22.86 21.46 21.74 32.28 20.00

10.00

0.00 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2072 2082

TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. / www.grupotaaf.com I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

 Analysis bases (variation of water availability  To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it was applied the theoretical ∆D% for each year to the amount of water produced by the OO in 2010. Variation of availability A1B scenario “Los Cabos” AvailabilityM Year ∆D(%) m3 Variation in the availability of scenario cc 2010 34.51* 2011 -0.8% 34.25 45 2013 0.0% 34.25 2018 10.4% 37.82 40 3 2028 8.9% 41.19 2048 -13.0% 35.84 35

Mm A2 2078 -18.2% 29.31 30 A1B Variation of availability A2 scenario “Los Cabos” 25 AvailabilityM Year ∆D(%) m3 20 2010 34.51* 2010 2011 2013 2018 2028 2048 2078 2011 -14.8% 29.40 2013 38.6% 40.75 To calculate the gap variation, it was considered 2018 -8.6% 37.25 the availability of the more adverse scenario (in 2028 -40.6% 22.14 this case A2). 2048 25.0% 27.68 2078 18.7% 32.86 *Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OOMSAPAS I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)  Basis of analysis (demand calculation)

Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per day and drinking water coverage provided by the OO Los Cabos (OOMSAPAS), it was calculated the water demand [Mm 3/year]

Year PARAMETER UNIT 2013 2018 2023 2028 Population Inhab. 253,577 280,878 311,119 344,616 Drinking water coverage % 89.90% 90.80% 91.70% 92.50% Annual production l/s 1,172 1,313 1,486 1,640 Annual production Mm 3/año 36.96 41.39 46.3 51.73 Endowment l/inhab*día 444 444 444 444 consumption l/inhab*día 282 282 282 282 Annual increase in population inhab. 5,133 5,686 6,298 6,976 Required extraction l/s 26.4 29.25 32.39 35.88 Variation of drinking water coverage % 89.86% 90.85% 91.74% 92.54% I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

 Analysis bases (variation of water availability)

 To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it was applied the theoretical ∆D% for each year to the amount of water produced by the OO in 2013. Variation of availability A1B scenario “La Paz” Variation in the availability of scenario cc Year ∆D [%] Availability[Mm 3]

2013 25.48* 31.0 2018 9.46% 27.89 29.0 2028 0.57% 28.05 27.0 2048 -6.61% 26.2 Disponibilidad 25.0 (A2)

2078 -21.09% 20.67 3 23.0

Mm Disponibilidad 21.0 (A1B) Variation of availability A2 scenario “La Paz” 19.0 17.0 3 Year ∆D [%] Availability [Mm ] 15.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2013 25.48* Año 2018 -5.60% 24.07 2028 -29.20% 17.05 To calculate the gap variation, it was considered 2048 -6.10% 16 2078 1.30% 16.21 the availability of the more adverse scenario (in this case A2). *Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OO SAPA I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)  Basis of analysis (demand calculation)

Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per day and drinking water coverage provided by the OO La Paz (SAPA), it was calculated the water demand [Mm 3/year]

Year PARAMETER UNIT 2013 2018 2023 2028 Population inhab. 235,268 273,005 316,795 367,609 Drinkingwatercoverage % 97.50% 97.90% 98.20% 98.40% Annualproduction l/s 953 1,106 1,283 1,489 Annualproduction Mm 3/año 30.06 34.88 40.47 46.96 Endowment l/inhab*day 350 350 350 350 consumption l/inhab*day 210 210 210 210 Annualincreasein population Inhab. 6,897 8,003 9,287 10,777 Requiredextraction l/s 27.94 32.42 37.62 43.66

Variation of drinking water coverage % 97.52% 97.86% 98.16% 98.41% I.2 Methodology (determination of gaps)  Results

Gaps 50.0 47.0

45.0 40.5 40.0

34.9 35.0

30.1 47 63 30.0 31 % % Mm 25.5 15 % 3 25.0 % 24.1 21.26 20.0 17.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

- 2013 2018 2023 2028

Demanda anual Disponibilidad (A2) Gaps II. 1 Identifying actions (benchmarking)

Micrometering (%) National average coverage 99 99 47.4% CONAGUA 94 96 97 100 85 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 30 17 20 Información 10 PIGOO 2011 0 Puerto La Paz Celaya Mazatlán Tecate Puerto Los Cabos Peñasco Vallarta

Expenditure on water(rate of 20 m3)

$323.80 $350.00 $300.00 $240.84 $250.00 $210.40 $177.80 $179.83 $200.00 $162.80 $150.00 $122.92 $/month $100.00 $67.50 $50.00 $0.00 Mazatlán Puerto Puerto Saltillo Celaya Tecate Los Cabos La Paz Information Vallarta Peñasco PIGOO 2011

Baja California Aquifer Renewable Energy Desalination Project: Suggested Next Steps to be Agreed Upon By All Research Partners Develop further understanding of aquifers and quality and quantity issues for Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz. Explore role that renewable energy can play in municipal energy systems, and for public and private desalination projects in Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz. Evaluate water sources, uses and management (including desalination) for Los Cabos and La Paz in the context of IMPLAN’s urban development plan and Centro Mario Molina’s sustainable water management. Consider sustainable destination tourism, climate adaptation and mitigation approaches. Acknowledgements for Presentation Fulbright Scholarship and participating universities implemented by Magdalena AK Muir. Kyle Leinweber, Engineer in Training, for work on aquifer assessment. Alfonso Rivera, Adjunct Professor at at Université Laval and Université du Québec, for aquifer advice. .IMPLAN Los Cabos for slides, digital maps, data, and information (Alex Gallardo). Centro Mario Molina for water scenarios, water methodology and slides on water resources ( Andrés Aranda Martínez). Sustainable Cities International (SCI) Energy Lab (Jane McRae and Bertine Stelzer). “Managing Arroyos in Los Cabos” by SCI Affiliated Researcher Eric Porse with IMPLAN Los Cabos. For further information contact: Andrés Aranda Martínez, [email protected] Centro Mario Molina, Mexico

Magdalena AK Muir [email protected] & [email protected] Associate Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia Climate Center at Earth Institute, Columbia University; Visiting Scholar, Center for Carbon-free Power Integration and Mangone Center for Marine Policy, University of Delaware; Research Associate, Arctic Institute of ; Associate Professor, Aarhus University Herning & Centre for Energy Technologies; and Advisory Board Member, Climate, Coastal and Marine Union (EUCC)

This presentation and research supported by Fulbright Canada under the Fulbright Canada- RBC Award; the Columbia Climate Center at the Earth Institute, Columbia University; the Center for Carbon-free Power Integration and the Mangone Center for Marine Policy in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware; and Aarhus University Herning and the Center for Energy Technologies . References for IWA Conference Presentation

Following are the references for IWA Conference presentation and the submitted conference paper, Preliminary Assessment of Water Resources including Climate Considerations for the Los Cabos and La Paz Municipalities in the State of Baja California Sur, Mexico by Magdalena Muir, Kyle Leinweber and Andrés Aranda Martínez . References for IWA Conference Presentation Argonaut Gold (14 March 2014) www.argonautgold.com/_resources/projects/San- Antonio-Project-District-Schematic-Map.pdf San Antonio Gold Project Baja California Sur, Mexico NI43- 101 Technical Report (2001), p. 28 (March 14, 2014) www.argonautgold.com/_resources/projects/San_Antoni o_NI_43-101_Technical_Report_August_2_2010.pdf Carrilo A., Drever J.I. Absorption of arsenic by natural aquifer material in the San Antonio-El Triunfo mining area, Baja California, Mexico . Environmental Geology, (September 1998), Volume 35, Issue 4, pp 251-257. Carillo-Chavez A., Drever, J.I., Martinez M., Arsenic content and groundwater geochemistry of the San Antonio-El Triunfo, Carrizal and Los Planes aquifers in southernmost Baja California, Mexico , Environmental Geology, October 2000, Volume 39, Issue 11, pp 1295-1303. Centro Mario Molina, Sistemas Urbanos en Zonas de Extrema Aridez, Propuestas para el Manejo Sustentable del Agua (November 2013). References for IWA Conference Presentation

CONAGUA: Dario Oficial, Segunda seccion (Dec. 20 2013), and Mexican Official Standard NOM- 011 -CNA -2000 Conservation of Water Resources (2012). Cruz-Falcón A., Troyo-Diéguez E., Fraga-Palomino H. and Vega-Mayagoitia J. Location of the Rainfall Recharge Areas in the Basin of La Paz: Figure 2. Delimitation of the basin of La Paz, and Terrain elevation model (TEM); Figure 4. Geology model of the basin of La Paz; and Figure 8. Precipitation model of the basin of La Paz (18 March 2014) . http://www.intechopen.com/books/water-resources- planning-development-and-management/location-of-the- rainfall-recharge-areas-in-the-basin-of-la-paz-bcs-m-xico McEvoy J. Desalination and Development: The Sociological and Technological Transformation of the . Doctorate dissertation, University of Arizona (2013). http://arizona.openrepository.com/arizona/bitstream/1015 0/301684/1/azu_etd_12924_sip1_m.pdf (April 18, 2014). References for IWA Conference Presentation

Pombo A., Breceda A., and Valdez Aragon A., Desalinization and Wastewater Reuse as Technological Alternatives in an Arid, Tourism Booming Region of Mexico . Frontera norte v.20 n.39 México ene./June 2008. Porse E., Managing Arroyos in Los Cabos , report of SCI Affiliated Researcher Porse in cooperation with IMPLAN Los Cabos (2013). PRONACOSE, Materiales del primer Taller de capacitación Apoyos cartográficos: Baja California Sur: 01 precipitation normal 71 00 (11 March 2014) http://pronacose.uacj.mx/Carpeta1erTaller/6.%20APOYO S%20CARTOGRAFICOS/01_Baja%20California%20Sur/