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Flood1 Early Warning Bulletin20

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Flood1 Early Warning Bulletin20 بسم هللا الرحمن الرحيم Food Security Technical Secretariat (FSTS) Early warning bulletin Flood monitoring issue No (2) Highlight • The country has witnessed rainfall in the past few days, the amounts of which ranged between trace and heavy over several regions of Sudan, , and their quantities have completely Compatible with what was mentioned in the seasonal forecast of rain fall. • Heavy rains continued in several parts of Sudan during the past days, which led to more floods, landslides and the destruction of homes and infrastructure in total, more than 93,550 people were affected throughout Sudan, according to data issued by the Humanitarian Aid Commission 9/8/2020 • Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) updated 217485 people in total had been affected as of 16 August across 16 states in Sudan , including damages to 12 educational facilities, 1,606 water resources, and 1,369 animals Lost, and several hectares of crops also lost. The HAC added that a joint assessment of people affected by floods has already been conducted in Blue Nile, South Darfur and East Darfur, while assessments on other flood-affected areas are still planned or underway to ascertain the needs and gaps. • The number of livestock losses is 1281 according to data issued by (HAC) • Only 30% of the target area (15,000 feddans) in Algash project is expected to be sown this season in Kassala State • 1000 acres were submerged in the Al Bouguah project in the Nile River State • 5559 acres were submerged in Northern state. All readings issued from the update of the seasonal forecasts for the current August for the 2020 season indicate that Sudan is located in wetter than usual conditions, according to what was published by the IGAD Center for Climate Predictions and Applications. • The agreed regional rainfall forecasts for the period from June to September 2019 indicate an increased probability of precipitation in most of the northern sector of the country. The forecast of monsoon rainfall indicates that most states are expected to experience above- average precipitation. Generally, rainfall rates are considered above average in Sudan for the main period of the season (June - September), with the exception of some areas in the east and west of the country. Noting that the average climatic precipitation in this month is always higher compared to the rest of the season, and that there are some regions that do not bear the average climate, especially the northern, Red Sea, Kassala and southern regions. Nile levels The average rainfall in the Ethiopian plateau on 7/8/9 August is 3.7 and 2.2 mm, respectively, and accordingly, the levels of the Nile will be as follows Sector: Damazin - Sennar will see a height of about 10 cm Sector: Sennar - Khartoum will see a height in the range of 5-10 cm Sector: Khartoum - Shendi will see a height in the range of 5-10 cm Sector: Shendi - Atbara will see a height of within 5 cm Sector: Khashm al-Qurba - Atbara will see a remarkable rise of about 20 cm Sector: Atbara - Merowe Dam will witness stability Sector: Merowe Dam - Dabba, will have a height of 7 cm Sector: the bear - Dongola will see a height in the range of 15-20 cm Source: Statement of Flood Committee August 11, 2020 - Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources From the Blue Nile hydrograph at the Dayem station above, it shows that the levels are higher than the 1906 flood levels and close to the 1988 flood levels, and during the previous period of the beginning of the flood the levels were lower than the levels of the 1988 flood. From the Nile hydrograph at Khartoum station, the levels are shown above the levels of the 1906 flood and the 1988 flood Most Affected area: Khartoum : Karari locality Khaleefa intersection with hara( 21, 13 , 22 , 19 , 9 ) , Northern part of hara 7&12 , Humaidan road , Wajiha road. Sharg al neel locality Al Qura Al mutahida- Al marabee – Um Dawnban – Abu Qroon Jabal Aulia locality Suction of accumulated water in Jabel Aulia villages, Kalakla, AbuAdam 11, Africa road , South ring , Salama & Ingaz River Nile : Barber locality Al Bougah Project: Flooded area 1000 acres (500 citrus acres - 300 acres of clover - 200 acres of palm trees) Aldamer locality Blue Nile : The collapse of the Bout Earth Dam, Blue Nile State, on 29 July, risks compromising access to water for over 100,000 people living in its vicinity. The table below shows the states affected by the floods State Number affected Total collapse Partial collapse Khartoum 7835 987 580 Blue Nile 5675 400 735 West Kordofan 35125 3117 3908 River Nile 5525 715 390 Kassla 25130 2810 2216 Red Sea 19625 2276 1649 Gezira 27780 2473 3083 Northern 12560 1091 1421 S. Darfour 17435 24 3463 White Nile 50 2 8 S. Kordofan 3200 425 315 N. Darfour 2215 67 376 E. Darfour 21620 1724 2600 Sennar 8185 850 787 Gedarif 7670 861 673 N. Kordofan 17855 600 2971 Total 217485 18422 2507 Source : Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) The impact of flood on food security In recent years, the states of Sudan witnessed in the rainy season various material and human damage, so the year 2019 was an exceptional season of rain, torrents and floods, and this year 2020 also appeared in most of the states of Sudan, which left material and human damage significantly more than all previous years. Heavy rains and consequent flash floods have so far affected more people, damaging households and livelihoods in most of Sudan’s 18 states. These rains have caused significant damage to key infrastructure such as bridges and roads as well as amenities like schools, latrines and local dispensaries. In addition, livelihoods have been significantly affected as farms were submerged in water and livestock washed away. Power outages occur severally due to collapsing of power lines. Widespread flooding is expected to have lingering livelihood impacts and likely lead to some slight crop production shortfalls, especially in the worst flood-affected regions Food insecurity is expected to increase during the lean season as people become more reliant on markets; however, with the declining purchasing power and possible limited food availability in the markets. Flooding is expected to increase the risk of disease outbreaks, mainly in areas where people have limited access to wash and sanitation facilities and with limited health infrastructure as experienced in most parts of Sudan. Impacts on public health due to floods are likely, including death and injuries linked to drowning, diarrheal diseases and vector-borne diseases transmitted by mosquitoes Needs that can be predicted : Pending an accurate assessment, anticipating needs in matters such as research and relief, medical assistance, evacuation and management of their displacement, reducing the near-term risk of exposure to water-borne and vector-borne diseases, raising awareness of the risks associated with clean-up activities, and maintaining food security conditions. Urgent needs: shelter materials - food - sanitation materials, water and basic medicines .
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