2007 Space Visions Congress - Growing the The Space Congress® Proceedings Next Generation of Scientists and Engineers

Apr 27th, 8:00 AM

Technical Paper Session I-A - New Space: A Review

Ric Jordan

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Scholarly Commons Citation Jordan, Ric, "Technical Paper Session I-A - New Space: A Review" (2007). The Space Congress® Proceedings. 11. https://commons.erau.edu/space-congress-proceedings/proceedings-2007/april-27-2007/11

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AR IC IC J EVIEW ORDAN 1A ”

SPACE VISIONS CONGRESS 2007 NEWSPACE – A Review

Ric Jordan Orbital Commerce Project [email protected]

The attraction of NewSpace is that NewSpace. almost anyone has a chance of becoming America’s manned exploration of this involved in it. They can obtain roles through our solar system ended with the grounding membership, sponsorship, donations, and storage of that resolute running back financing, in more and more instances Saturn V. But the sense that it had really employment and, soon, as tourists. Many of ended didn’t occur until Skylab plunged to its these organizations have an automatic e-mail fiery end in Earth’s atmosphere. The much service that keeps members or anyone promised Space Shuttle was unable to launch interested abreast of their latest in time to save it. The greatest losses were developments. the opportunities that would have allowed NewSpace participants come from all mankind to press into deep space and walks of life. Many are former astronauts, eventually begin colonizing our solar system. retired aerospace executives, and retired Only after Shuttle began operations did aerospace military officers. Some are from American astronauts frequent space again. other nations. Many are found at Star Trek But the U.S. Space Policy of July 14, 1984 and Science Fiction conventions. One owns a let not latitude and they were confined to hotel chain, another a series of machine Earth orbit. shops. There are, engineers, technicians, a Since then support for the U.S. space retired Hollywood stunt man, and thousands program has dwindled to smaller and smaller who, as members/investors/sponsors just percentages. But within the past decade, a want to be associated with the idea of going growing fraction of mankind has stopped to space. waiting for someone else to provide them These privately financed man-in-space with their opportunity to be a part of a alternatives can be divided into seven broad spacefaring human race. They have formed categories: over 40 privately financed space programs 1. Private and Commercial Launch and space activist organizations in the U.S. Service Providers alone for the purpose of commercially 2. Space Activists developing space. This commercial and 3. Space Tour Guides private space development has been called by 4. Astronaut Training several names, but lately the term NewSpace 5. Spacesuits seems to have stuck and those involved are 6. Space Lawgivers forging on with great determination to turn a 7. Amateur Rocketeers profit in the utilization of the resources of this our solar system. During the next five Activists years the effects of NewSpace will begin to The activists believe that: be fully felt.

-1- Humanity must become permanently Many plan to launch in the U.S., but established in space with regular some have and are launching onboard access to space [1]. Russian, Chinese, or French launch vehicles “All of humanity has the ‘right stuff’ because the cost and the difficulties are and everyone will benefit from fewer. opening the space frontier.” [2] Space Tour Guides Space is a PLACE, not a government contract and it is, in fact, the new , Inc., [15] advertises frontier and it can no longer be the itself as the “world's premier exclusive domain of the company.” A reasonable claim as they government.[3] assisted with ’s flight to the International in April of 2001, The Activists work constantly to these followed by and more. A ends, for they also hold yearly treks to few of their other offerings are: congress to lobby for and against the Circumlunar Spaceflights ($100 m) government’s policies and decisions that may Orbital Spaceflights ($20-25 m) or may not advance their goals. Some hold EVA ($15 m) yearly conferences where NewSpace Suborbital Spaceflights ($102,000) companies, other interested parties and the Cosmonaut training government are invited to attend and keep Space shuttle and launch tours each other abreast of what they’re doing. [4,5] Currently, Space Adventures is taking Space activist organizations have reservations for suborbital flights onboard its chapters around the world. own spacecraft, the C-21, undergoing Private and Commercial Launch Service development. They predict that flights will Providers occur within the next two years or so. This group includes providers of launch Astronaut Training vehicles, services and a multitude of other Some companies such as entrepreneurial companies working on have already begun a program to train their complete infrastructures to put mankind in own astronaut pilots. Others haven’t included big working space stations that are tended by it into their budgets, because they have not orbital maneuvering vehicles and supplied by yet decided how to handle it. Currently, there upgraded shuttles [6, 7]. Some are working is only one startup company dedicating its on pieces of the spacefaring pie, such as business to train astronauts for NewSpace, solving the technical difficulties for and that is Orbital Commerce Project [16]. colonizing mars [8], colonizing the moon OCP plans to construct a training facility that [9,10], and preparing to mine those bodies as will be based upon a military style regimen, well as asteroids [11, 12]. There are single- where distractions will be minimized to stage to orbit launch vehicles, sounding facilitate efficient learning. Training will be a rockets, rocketplanes, jets carrying and balance between physical and mental towing rockets to optimum launch altitudes components. Initial course offerings will be [13, 14] and extensive construction in for Suborbital Pilot and Payload Specialist. providing four-minute flights to space for Course curricula will consist of classroom, thousands of us as tourists. simulator, and flight time.

-2- Spacesuits Where is the Money coming From? Orbital Outfitters is a California-based On February 1601, the first fleet of four corporation manufacturing industrial quality East India ships left England for the East spacesuits and related services for Indies to make fortunes or lose everything for commercial and government space travelers their investors. They returned in September and explorers. The first suit under 1603, two-and-a-half years later with full development by OO is a basic pressure suit. cargo holds. [22] While the fleet was on that Its primary function is to provide a line of dangerous voyage, subscribers had plenty of protection in the event of a loss of reasons to worry about their investment. atmospheric pressure within a vehicle. It will Clearly, they had to be financially be manufactured to operate at an altitude of independent or needed some other source of 500,000 feet (92 miles) for 30 minutes. [17] income to survive during the chancy expedition. Not just the passage itself but Amateurs after, for profit from the voyage was first There are hundreds of Rocketeers across paid out as dividends over a period of years. the U.S. Most notable is the Civilian Space To ensure that the first voyage provided eXploration Team. On May 17, 2004, Ky a profit, the commander of the fleet, James Michaelson launched their 21-foot GoFast Lancaster, cheated or was typically from Nevada’s Black Rock desert. Without English. He forcefully overpowered and took much ado, it quickly reached an altitude of 60 a fully laden Portuguese cargo ship to ensure miles. That officially placed the GoFast at a profit for the subscribers. Even so, it wasn’t the edge of space. A first for amateur until the third voyage that profit was rocketeers and a success that places them in sufficiently high to generate excitement among the best traditions of Robert H. among potential investors. Goddard. [18] With each success, these The history of the beginnings of the East amateurs are pursing goals to eventually orbit India Company certainly has good and bad tiny payloads [19]. And in Brevard County lessons that can be applicable to the there is the Spaceport Rocket Association. commercialization and utilization of this our [20] solar system. Space Law Givers Startup Space companies have as much difficulty in raising their initial capital as any Currently the United Societies in Space other business venture, because the questions (USIS) is the only one of these. [21] They investors ask are usually the same. The key believe that the lack of property laws and an question is “Who are the members of your outer space government infrastructure hinder management team?” It can be summed up in the development of Man in Space. USIS has the words “People, people, people”[23]. The been working toward supplying means and investor must have confidence in managers methods to fill this void. Current space with who will push the company through the treaties don’t address the everyday laws in required milestones to its ultimate goal. space that correspond to what we live under Specifically, people with good track records on this planet. Consequently, USIS has as innovators and having the required written a space constitution that takes a major technical skills or business expertise. Both step in that direction. qualities must be involved in determining ways to make money. Good teams will determine how to make money even if their first plan falls through.

-3- NewSpace startups have a problem with you have one customer, you’re likely to have engineers being managers. It would help “if problems. everyone thinking of building a start-up The last question investors ask is “What space company would put down the kind of rocket is it?” In this regard, if you engineering books and pick up a few have some cash and can begin to build your management books.” [24] More MBAs than rocket with demonstrable results, then you engineers are needed. The most talented and are ahead of the game. You have gifted engineer may not be able to make a demonstrated to potential investors that you business work. Effective management can be have “skin” in the game, and people are more deceiving in the simplicity of its goals. willing to invest in your venture. Those who raise the money for the venture cannot run the business and those Investors who are running the business shouldn’t be Before there are investors, there must be raising the capital. Gary Hudson once development capital. And investors may be lamented that he spent so much time trying to required before there is development capital. raise money, that he had no time for Catch 22? Not really. A matter of hard work involvement in developing his Roton Rocket. and hawking the start-up’s goals, visions, [25] Raising money requires a salesman and assets, and a solid Business Plan. it is a full time job. The salesman must have The Business Plan or big picture should some of the qualities of an Elmer Gantry in come from the team. Some start-up presenting the company’s goals to potential companies have been unable to develop a investors—and a good Business Plan. good Business Plan because they may “Capital should not be spent to raise basically know what they want to do, but are capital. This is part of Business unable to chart a direct course to achieve Entrepreneurship 101.” [26] A lavish and their final goals. Goals that may be too expensive gathering that includes feeding encompassing. attendees to convince them to part with Investors like being part of any well- venture capital is something that more suits publicized financial effort. Some put up political fundraising. A wise potential money for reasons similar to those who investor will question how much of his invest in expeditions to find lost Spanish investment would be spent on a lavish “show Galleons. They invest a lot or as little money and tell” instead of going right into the as possible just so they can say they are an project. investor. A NewSpace startup company “must Until NASA’s Commercial Orbital play it [the commercial space game] and keep Transportation System(COTS) award, most losses down. You must have adequate significant NewSpace financing had been resources to stay in the “game”. The longer from Space Angels. These are wealthy you stay in the game the more likely you are entrepreneurs. Elon Musk, John Bigelow, and to reach the point where luck comes into John Carmack and so on, willing to take a big play. Your message will have reached the risk. It has been incumbent on them that they right investors and your project will have a show by their investments and results how better than even chance of succeeding. [26] they made a small fortune into a big one Investors will want to know who your instead of vice versa. Elon Musk has begun at customers are or will be and what they’re SpaceX and is ready to fly his first payload willing to pay for your services or product. If on Falcon 1 at a cost of around $5.9 million. His Falcon 5 was to orbit payloads for about

-4- $15.9 million, but he has cancelled it and 333 pounds and 6 shillings, 8 pence. A jumped to his Falcon 9. It is a certainty that subscriber’s money went into the “voiage” his charges that will cut into Delta II’s $50 not the company. So subscribers to one million dollar cost. [27] voyage could loose his money while Since the success of Burt Rutan’s subscribers to another could realize huge SpaceShip One, SpaceX and the COTS profits. It would take awhile for this to award, investors have become more change. [29] interested in listening to pitches from Insufficient funding in a start-up has NewSpace start-up ventures. Though they fallout effects. Gary Hudson of t/Space points have not yet materialized in the numbers one out that without sufficient funding “it would expect. Interestingly, more money becomes vastly more difficult to hire the appears available outside than inside the people to get the job done. One must then U.S., for commercial space projects. [28] hire the ‘enthusiasts’ in place of proven Sponsors and investors currently range performers, and that leads to no end of from beef jerky vendors to numerous problems.” It is possible to occasionally get individuals investing major dollars. Wealthy an enthusiast that is also competent, but it is investors appear to be on the increase. rare.” When a start-up has the money to hire Venture Capitalists invest tens of the right people, they have already waited six millions of dollars, and they expect returns months and longer before offering the first much more quickly than most investors do. engineering job. [30] The returns they expect are in the one-billion- Risk and investment go hand in hand dollar-a-year category in a relatively short and anyone adverse to either should keep term, because VCs are spending other both hands in their pockets. people’s money and relative few of their Advent Launch Services financing was ventures really takeoff. very revealing. Their goal was 200 Are investors more willing to take a big subscribers. Their customer base was to be chance today than in the past? Many believe space tourism. They collected $341,000 from that the first trillionaires will be made in 62 people who paid up to $5,500 for a ride on NewSpace’s private/commercial space their Mayflower rocket. They also collected industry. That’s a tempting claim for any $12,000 in membership dues. When they entrepreneur. While the costs of development realized there wouldn’t be enough money to are great, so are the returns. The risk taken by start their program they refunded everything. the East India Company’s subscribers was On the second try, Advent became an enormous. Wooden sailing ships were sailing employee-owned corporation of thousands of miles without so much as a approximately 100 people. Most of who flashlight to help find their way in the dark. worked without pay. Team members and And the number of them lost at sea is contributors owned Advent in proportion to staggering. Yet, they met in London in 1599 their contributions in labor and time. to raise their money for the “voiage to the Jim Akkerman has never stopped and East Indies.” They subscribed 30,133 pounds, NASA is currently testing Advent’s 6 shillings, 8 pence. At the time, this was a oxygen/methane rocket engine to quality its very considerable sum of money. Of the 218 rocket engine test stand with the goal of investors, some gave as much as 3,000 developing its own such engine pounds and some as little as 100 pounds. The Once the money hurdle has been majority of the subscribers contributed 200 resolved—for the time being—start-ups can’t pounds. Only one gave change: John Hewitt, afford to miss another key step in their goals.

-5- And it is, who will their customers be? Any In NewSpace companies, simple and cheap startup NewSpace company must temper its means using off-the-shelf, a term that is vision of success early with the clear misleading, for it too often implies materials understanding of the type of customers they and ideas that are old and obsolete. This is will want to attract. not what it appears. Technology from the Examples are Pat Bahn’s TGV. It is 1970’s or 1980’s imply that it may be too old looking at the sale of suborbital photographs but it is not obsolete if you need something of Earth on a near real-time basis. SpaceDev you know will work every time. Materials will send micro-and nano-satellites into deep and ideas become off-the-shelf when they are space. [31] Lone Star Space is working cheap and can be used reliably at any time on toward same-day worldwide package a day-to-day basis. And much that is off-the- delivery with suborbital rockets. [32] By far, shelf is being constantly replaced or updated the biggest customer base appears to be that with the next technology as it proves its of space tourists. It isn’t unrealistic at this reliability and its cost lowers. time to believe that there are thousands of TGV is using off-the-shelf technology people worldwide waiting for the opportunity and off-the-shelf components from major to travel to suborbital space if only for a few suppliers as much as is possible. In regards to minutes. Many of these potential customers needed parts that a supplier doesn’t have, are willing to pay $100-$200 thousand for the they will determine if the part is within the experience and are putting up the full amount suppliers design envelope. If they are or deposits to reserve their seats. The number confident that the supplier can actually of customers is quickly approaching the reengineer the item then the request will go 1,000 mark. in. Obtaining enough funds to maintain a Technology that will some day replace cash flow until the business can show the off-the-shelf or state-of-the art is being necessary profit to continue its business, is R&D’ed at this moment. how to succeed. It is clear that not only not having enough money is a problem but “more Liability importantly, not knowing if there is money NewSpace companies flying passengers for the next month or the next six months or require two kinds of liability. The first is the next year.” liability insurance against claims made by those participants, and the other is third-party Off-the-Shelf Technology insurance mandated by federal law. The latter Off-the-shelf should be a plus to type of insurance covers the maximum investors. probable loss (MPL) to uninvolved parties or NewSpace keeps its programs as cheap worst case scenario. This requirement comes as is reasonably and safely possible. Scaled from the space treaties [33] signed by the Composites essentially set the pace in this various world governments. The cost of regard. Excessive reliance on exotic and liability insurance is mitigated through the cutting edge technology implies or should use of horizontal takeoffs and landings and imply unnecessary costs. It also implies an sea launches. The sea launches being the iffy situation as to whether or not it will work least expensive. Activists and space as advertised and if it will be available when companies are pushing American legislators needed. to revisit the cost of existing U.S. liability Simple and cheap is not what the laws on the matter. American space program has been all about.

-6- A variety of insurance is available from ventures that will improve their capabilities, brokers. financial position, and business clout for Pre-launch insurance that protects bigger things. Transformational Space the spacecraft against loss or damage (t/Space) is just one of these. It consists of six while it is in transit or in storage. partners and obtained its first contract from Insurance that will cover the NASA's from which it advised the agency on spacecraft in-orbit and during its the best architecture for Moon-Mars operational life. exploration and the best initial design for the Political risk insurance that could Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). [36] cover a loss if a government bars Rocketplane and Kistler Aerospace execution of some requirement formed the company needed for launch operation or (RPK) to bid on NASA’s Commercial launch. Orbital Transportation System (COTS). RPK The Associate Administrator for was awarded $446 million. Commercial Space Transportation A Last Word (FAA/AST) has a complex set of formulae worked out to determine the Maximum Government is acknowledged to be one Probable Loss (MPL) insurance liability. It of the world’s most unreliable customers. As determines the requirement when it issues a pointed out by Christ Carberry in “2009: A license or permit. Two examples of space Space Vision”, [37] President Bush’s Vision company MPLs are ’ for Space Exploration (VSE) for NASA has, MPL liability: $3.1 million and Interorbital’s unfortunately, taken on its own role in the Tachyon MPL: $250,000. All assigned MPLs politics. Support for the vision depends on are routinely reassessed by the AST. whether or not some people know it’s his Iinsurance tends to be available and not idea. In which case, it becomes a fair unduly expensive: John Carmack of question to ask if the VSE will survive said he obtained a Bush’s presidency. If it doesn’t, then, policy that covers unlimited launches for one unabashedly, the American man-in-space year with $3 million in coverage for $50,000. program will pass increasingly into the hands [34] of NewSpace. Some will fail because of the An interesting answer to mitigating lack of funding, but many will continue. And liability suits is in a law recently passed by new start-ups continue to appear in the U.S. the Virginia legislature that doesn’t allow and around the world with increasing lawsuits if space tourists are killed in a tenacity. spaceship accident. The requirements are that How is success measured in NewSpace? the participant understands and attests to the Like any business, success can mean that you fact that going to space is a totally dangerous are receiving a profit on your investment and venture and he/she undergoes considerable your company has business that extends into personal risk. [35] a future that portends expansion. For any visionary, however, success doesn’t stop at The Next Stop profit or loss. Commercial space The desire for profit in NewSpace is no development is a business, but if you scratch longer limited just because a startup company the visionaries involved, you will find, is too small to tackle larger projects. Many besides the profit motive, a wide deep vein of start-ups have begun to determine who holds an overwhelming desire for spacefaring. what expertise and have formed larger -----

-7- References

[1] National Space Society, www.nss.org [22] Wild, Antony, The East India Company: trade and conquest from 1600, Lyons Press, New York, 2000, pp [2] Prospace, www.prospace.org. 1-10.

[3] Space Frontier Foundation, [23] Pistritto, Joe; “Joe Pistritto and XCOR: Thoughts on www.spacefrontierfoundation.org. Financing and Development”, Selenian Boondocks, Oct 12, 2005. [4] Space Access Society, www.space-access.org. [24] Mealling, Mike; Marsten Space Systems/Rocketforge Blog; “Start-up Space Companies”; E-mail 1 Jul 2005. [5] International Space Development Conference 2007; http://isdc.org/2007. [25] Hudson, Gary, T/space, Email Jun 28, 2005. [6] Whitesel, John, , “Start-up Space Companies”; E-mail Nov 26, 2002. [26] Tyson, George President/CEO; Orbital Commerce Project; Converstations with, 2006-7. [7] Smith, John Wayne/CEO; 1000 Planets; E-mail Apr 25, 2004. [27] Space Exploration Technologies, www..com,

[8] Mars Society, www.marssociety.org. [28] Space Adventures, Ltd; www.spaceadventures.com

[9] Strock, Ian Randal VP; The Lunar Resources [29] Wild, Antony,The East India Company: trade and Company; Email W4C7L4, 21 Dec 2002. conquest from 1600, Lyons Press, New York, 2000, pp 1-10. [10] Oregon L5 Society, “Visiting Oregon Moonbase”, www.oregonl5.org/lbrt/l5ombase.html [30] Hudson, Gary; TGV, E-mail Space Start-ups; Jun 26, 2005. [11] Prado, Mark Founder/CEO; Projects to Employ Resources of the Moon and Asteroids Near Earth [31] SpaceDev, Inc., www..com. (PERMANENT, Inc.), E-mail, Jan 4, 2003. [32] Lone Star Space Access Corp., [12] Westfall, Richard President; Galactic Mining www.lonestarspace.com. Industries; E-mail December 18 & 20, 2002. [33] “Convention on International Liability for Damage [13] Kelly Aerospace, Inc., www.kellyspace.com. Caused by Space Objects” (1972).

[14] Scaled Composites, Inc., www.scaled.com. Foust, Jeff ; “Lawyers, insurance, and money: the business challenges of NewSpace”; The Space Review; Mar 26, 2007 [15] Space Adventures, Ltd, www.spaceadventures.com. [34] Code of Virgina Liability; Art. 24, “Spaceflight [16] Tyson, George President/CEO; Orbital Commerce Liability and Immunity Act”; Feb 2, 2007. Project; Converstations with, 2006-7. [35] Transformatonal Space (t/Space), [17] Orbital Outfitters, www.tranformspace.com. www.orbitaloutfitters.com/home.html. [36] Carberry, Christ; “2009: A Space Vision”, The Space [18] Michaelson, Ky; Civilian Space Exploration Team; E- Review, July 11, 2005. mail Oct 29, 2002; Telecon Oct 2002.

[19] Experimental Rocket Propulsion Society; E-mails Dec 11 & 12, 2002; www.erps.org.

[20] Spaceport Rocket Association, www.spaceportrocketry.org.

[21] Westfall, Richard; USIS, E-mail Aug 13, 2003; www.anglefire.com/space/usis.

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