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Confidence in a Recovering Market European Hotel Market Survey 2014 Contents Confidence in a recovering market European Hotel Market Survey 2014 Contents Foreword ................................................................................ 01 Overview of our European Hotel Market Survey 2014: Top ten highlights ................................02 Top ten highlights .............................................................04 Current trends in the hotel sector .............................10 Industry leader’s insights: Josh Wyatt .....................12 Industry leader’s insights: Philippe Bijaoui ........... 16 Industry leaders’ insights: Diane Scott and Tony Burnell ................................................................. 18 Our research was carried out in January/ February 2014 and is based on data from over 400 online interviews with a cross-section of hotel industry professionals based in over 20 countries worldwide. Any unattributed quotes which feature in this report were made by respondents to our survey. Berwin Leighton Paisner LLP Foreword Does 2014 herald a new dawn for the hotel sector? Certainly enthusiasm is running high for the majority of our respondents as the caution of the past few years gives way to hope that I am delighted to present the improved trading seen in many European locations will the results of our survey stick and that a bankable recovery will set in. Over 97% of our respondents predicted growth in European REVPAR over of over 400 respondents the next 12 months. This confidence is however measured, from the hotel sector with 63% of respondents expressing continuing concern over – investors, lenders, the stability of the Eurozone. There is also some debate as to owners, operators, whether this recovery will be long-lasting, with a number of our respondents predicting that the present momentum will developers and advisers. not be sustained beyond the next 12 to 24 months. In addition to the current buoyancy in the European market, we are seeing increased optimism and an uptick in development in the wider emerging markets, notably Africa and South East Asia. As well as setting out the top ten market highlights from our survey, we have included in this report the thoughts of our respondents on some of the customer-facing trends in the sector – namely the drive to provide more of a personal service to hotel guests, the desire to capture the Millennials market and the threat – or otherwise – presented by the upsurge of holiday rental online booking sites. Finally, I am very pleased to share with you the personal views of four industry leaders in the hotel sector, namely Josh Wyatt of Patron Capital Partners, Philippe Bijaoui of IHG and Diane Scott and Tony Burnell of Lloyds Banking Group, which appear in our feature interviews. Karen Friebe Partner, Hotels Group [email protected] Confidence in a recovering market /01 Overview of our European Hotel Market Survey 2014 Overview of our European Hotel Market Survey 2014 Top ten highlights 97% predict that REVPAR in 76% Europe will grow believe that London will see the most M&A activity, followed by Paris at 49% and Berlin at 25% 51% 60% 54% expect to see strong believe investors increasingly think that hotels have inward investment into value hotels as an “attractive” outperformed “traditional” the European market asset class commercial property 02/ Confidence in a recovering market Overview of our European Hotel Market Survey 2014 21% online comparison sites such as TripAdvisor are not troubling profitability - 21% saw profits increase as a result of appearing on such sites 69% think that we will see an increase in brands franchising in 2014 61% 64% institutional investors expect less traditional increasingly value the forms of lending, such as 69% benefits of hotel property insurers providing senior believe that investment as an attractive real estate debt or engaging in sale will be focused on asset class, according to and leaseback transactions, Western Europe 61% of respondents to increase this year Confidence in a recovering market /03 Top ten highlights Top ten highlights 1 97% predict that 3 51% expect to see strong 4 60% believe investors REVPAR in Europe inward investment into increasingly value will grow the European market hotels as an “attractive” Enthusiasm was running high Respondents were asked asset class for the majority of respondents, for the reasons behind their Many years of low interest rates as the caution of the past few confidence in the hotel sector and depressed economies have years gives way to hopes that in 2014. The leading response led investors to step out of their the improved trading seen in was the expected growth of the traditional markets and look many locations in Europe will European economy, alongside for higher returns in unfamiliar stick and a bankable recovery strong inward investment into locations. For the hotel sector, will set in. Both the corporate the European market. which has found itself out of and leisure markets have seen favour in recent years, this has With Western Europe the focus improvements across Europe, meant some new entrants. of investment, respondents with locations including the Our survey revealed that 37% were asked from which region regional UK market picking of respondents found hotels they believed the majority of up after being hit hard in ‘highly attractive’, with 59% investment would come in 2014. the downturn. rating them “attractive”, ahead The Middle East and North of residential or office assets. There is however continuing Africa were the most popular concern about the stability choices. Political unrest in the As REVPAR increases across of the Eurozone. region has seen many investors Europe, this is expected to looking to protect their capital translate into even more heady 2 76% believe that London by acquiring trophy assets in asset deals, fueled by the belief will see the most M&A cities such as London and Paris. that the key European capitals activity, followed by Paris Sovereign Wealth Funds in can do no wrong. The US at 49% and Berlin at 25% the Middle East have shown a REITS have shown themselves Both London and Paris saw particular appetite for the hotel to be particularly acquisitive strong growth over recent sector in Western Europe. during the downturn, with the likes of Host Hotels and years in terms of trading and China was also a popular Resorts looking for properties deal volume. This provides choice as a likely source of in gateway cities with strong reassurance for those who have investment, which has already brands attached. The increase invested in the sector in these been borne out in deals over in models which allow cities, whether in trophy assets the past year in London. Dalian investment into the sector or in budget sites. Wanda was just one of the without expertise in hotel companies to announce that A number of respondents also operation is expected to act as it was investing in the capital, expected to see an increase a further attraction for return- with a new luxury hotel as part in private equity and High Net hungry money. Worth Individuals coming into of a £700m investment on the the sector, drawn in particular South Bank. China’s consistent to trophy assets in the two economic growth has allowed capitals. Attendees of the IHIF Chinese companies to take It is market dependent advantage of the economic might also be expected to but I believe that hotels spend some time shopping downturn elsewhere around for opportunities - with Berlin the globe to start realising which are performing named by 25% of respondents their global ambitions. regularly outclass traditional as a likely investment target in commercial property. the coming year. 04/ Confidence in a recovering market Top ten highlights 5 Hotels have outperformed 6 69% believe that “traditional” commercial Given the tailwind, we investment will be property, according to 54% are currently seeing an focused on Western Respondents were confident Europe that investors would realise uptick of demand which Our research indicated that that the hotel sector offers is leading to a nice growth most investment in the coming potential rewards, with 54% in RevPar across almost year would be concentrated asserting that hotels in Europe all segments. in Western Europe - so 69% of had outperformed “traditional” respondents forecast. Second in commercial property over the Josh Wyatt Director, Hospitality and Leisure, line was China, closely followed last five years. Patron Capital Partners by Asia-Pacific, indicating how far these regions have come Some were defensive, in recent years in terms of pointing out that hotel development potential. performance had suffered disproportionately during The buoyancy of the Whilst the mature market the financial crisis due hotel market both in terms of Western Europe attracts to corporate and private of hotel operations and both commercial and leisure spending cutbacks. The deal activity demonstrates travellers, with the penetration European hotel sector’s of brands lagging behind the resilience and ability to the ability of hotels as an US, it is still seen as ripe for generate cash makes it asset class to weather development by the global attractive, with its increased economic downturns. operators. As travel becomes popularity to visitors from Andrew Little the norm, rather than the China and the Middle East Partner, BLP Hotels Group exception for many around making its long-term potential the globe, the need for quality ever more convincing. hotels across the price points will drive further expansion in the sector.
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