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Business Outlook 2018 EMBRACING CHANGE Business Outlook 2018 EMBRACING CHANGE christie.com BUSINESS OUTLOOK 2018 EMBRACING CHANGE 02 CONTENTS Managing Director’s Statement 04 Consultancy 06 Valuation 08 Bank Support and Business Recovery 09 Christie Finance 11 Christie Insurance 12 1 Medical 13 2 Care 17 3 Childcare & Education 20 4 Retail 24 5 Leisure 28 6 Pubs 31 7 Restaurants 34 8 Hotels 37 9 International 40 Transaction Tables 48 Partners 54 Business Outlook 2018 / Embracing Change The persistent economic uncertainty that Unemployment is at its lowest rate since 1975, inflation has hampered activity for 10 years may have remains low, interest rates are stable and manufacturing growth is strengthening on the back of a global economic finally broken, heralding the start of a more recovery. In short: the economy is continuing to recover and positive period for businesses that embrace still has plenty of room for growth. change. At Christie & Co we are seeing the signs of increasing confidence and economic positivity in almost every sector There is much to be upbeat about as we go in which we operate. Pipelines continue to grow by double digits as we enter 2018. into 2018 Activity is being fuelled in part by the availability of finance True, higher inflation and sluggish wage growth are and a surge of investors – many from outside the UK – MANAGING DIRECTOR’S squeezing consumer spending and acting as a drag on looking for good opportunities and sound returns. Asian STATEMENT the speed of UK growth. Yes, construction and service investors particularly view the UK as an attractive investment growth haven’t demonstrated quite the vigour we’d like. opportunity thanks to the country’s stability and relatively And, of course, a continuing lack of clarity around Brexit is low value of the Pound. hampering some investment, nevertheless manufacturing CHRIS DAY indices continue to be positive. We have noticed a shift in capital sources over the past year. US investors who are traditionally risk averse, have Global Managing Director Movement in average prices year on year 2014 2015 2016 2017 Dental - - 14.9% 12.3% Pharmacy 13.5% 10.8% 12.0% 8.1% Care 9.8% 4.7% 5.0% 6.1% Childcare - - 9.7% 10.8% Retail 11.3% 10.3% 8.8% -0.4% Pubs 8.6% 10.1% 4.4% 3.8% Restaurants 11.1% 9.9% 14.1% -3.4% Hotels 17.2% 9.2% 6.0% 5.8% 04 stepped back from the UK market in the wake of Brexit but our competitors, as does their wide range of diverse contacts Meanwhile, staffing also remains a challenge, particularly in have been replaced by Asian capital that continues to seek in almost every part of the world. the wake of Brexit as many European workers return home opportunities specifically in the UK. or show some reluctance to come to the UK. Together with staff at Christie Finance and Christie Insurance, In 2018 we will continue to develop and expand our our growing and collaborative teams continue to provide a Moving forward it is becoming increasingly important for international businesses where the appetite for investment is best-in-class service. businesses in all our sectors to harness evolving technology. strengthening daily and there are plenty of opportunities for New authentic business concepts will be a key factor in 2018 Christie & Co. Outlook and beyond. Independent businesses have proven time and time again that this is an area where they can flourish. We will focus on bolstering teams at home and Our Business Outlook report gives you some of the The challenge for the larger corporate operators will be internationally to capitalise on our expertise to attract and highlights of our business over the past year and, perhaps keeping their product fresh, attractive and competitive whilst support both new and well-established clients who need more importantly, offers a valuable insight into what we at the same time keeping abreast of the latest trends and help navigating the market, and who want to ensure a high- expect in the year to come. innovation. performing business. As you will see, we expect some consolidation as pressures Constant evolution and embracing change quickly will be Power of our people on costs continue to hit margins and drive even greater efficiencies. The same pressures, combined with the most the key to success across all our business sectors. Our people are the foundation of our long-term success. The recent increase in interest rates, are also likely to increase the experience and knowledge of our teams set us apart from number of distressed businesses for at least another year in some of our sectors. Index based on average sale prices from a base of 100 in 1975 2000 House Price Index 1500 Retail Christie & Co Average Index 1000 Restaurants Hotels Pubs Care Retail Price Index 500 1 4 7 0 2 3 5 1 11 1 1 14 1 2016 2017 200 2005 200 2009 20 20 20 2002 2003 200 2006 2008 20 20 20 Business Outlook 2018 / Embracing Change Innovation EU nurses registering to work in the UK since the Brexit vote, and by those leaving the country to return to Europe. Changes in how healthy we are, how long we live and what we want and need in later life have all influenced the sector. Whilst the number of new nurse training places in the UK has We have seen greater innovation over the past year. In new increased, there is concern that the removal of the bursary build projects, for example, owners are focussed on future- scheme may deter new applications unless earning potential proofing the design and facilities available. We are also seeing increases. significant activity and evolution in the extra care and care Within the NHS, remuneration is impacted by the public village sector. sector pay restraint and, in social care, an operator’s ability Technology is playing a growing role with the introduction of to pay higher hourly rates is often inhibited by low local electronic care planning, and is also opening opportunities authority funded fee levels. The recently published CMA to work more in partnership with hospitals, for example using report on care home funding clearly illustrates the need for CONSULTANCY Skype to communicate with healthcare professionals and additional funding to be made available. with patients’ families. Given the ongoing workforce challenges, our continued In the pharmacy sector, technology is influencing the way ability to recruit overseas nurses takes on a greater level MICHAEL HODGES prescriptions are issued with a move away from the current of importance. In particular, there is a need to ensure that Head of Consultancy - Care paper based system to electronic prescriptions. This is a key nurses remain on the Shortage Occupation List beyond the development which Christie & Co has been evaluating in current time limit of 2019. With a detailed and extensive knowledge detail for operators and investors. Moving away from adult social care, staffing issues also of the sector, Christie & Co offers a Technology is driving innovation impact other healthcare sectors. The shortage of dental comprehensive insight into the UK associates is a particular challenge for the dental sector and across the healthcare industry in 2018, Christie & Co will be launching a new research report healthcare sector. which will examine this in further detail. Research Looking ahead Demand for our healthcare consultancy services remains Our comprehensive report, Adult Social Care 2017, strong, driven by our market-leading data analytics system highlighted the key challenges faced by a sector where Despite these challenges, the healthcare sector as a whole coupled with our granular knowledge of local markets. With demand for expert care has never been greater. continues to thrive and healthcare remains an attractive an expanding and diverse team, our consultancy activity investment. Using our insight and data, we are helping more With more people living longer, the sector is growing. covers a comprehensive spectrum of healthcare businesses. clients to better manage and shape their estates through the However, pressure is also mounting on staffing, funding provision of unrivalled operational and market analysis. We Over recent years our client base has become increasingly and the number of available places in the system, and these believe that there will be significant activity in 2018 as many more sophisticated, attracting interest from a wide range remain critical issues for the industry – and government – new well-funded entrants look to enter the market. of investors. We continue to add value to our clients by to address. providing tailored insights to their specific areas of interest. Data is crucial in informing investment and operational Staffing decisions, and has helped to shape this developing market in Our 2017 report sets out starkly the growing shortage of a number of ways. nursing staff, fuelled in part by the material reduction in new 06 maximise profit using better insight and significant sector Developments in payment knowledge. security, in-room tech and mobile Bespoke research applications are on the rise A 2017 highlight was the launch of our report, ‘European Travel Trends and Hotel Investment Hot Spots’. Our ground- a better customer experience, smaller rooms, and a shift in breaking research demonstrates the type of thought the food and beverage offering. leadership international investors crave. Developments in payment security, in-room tech and mobile It identified future investment opportunities in the European applications are on the rise, in recognition of the fact that hotel market by highlighting areas for increasing the value online and offline customers have effectively become one. of visitation, reviewing the growth opportunities of feeder Serviced apartments are generating more interest, as CONSULTANCY markets in Europe, analysing issues surrounding accessibility, evidenced by the ongoing acquisition of SACO from Oaktree airport capacity and focusing on which markets are expected Capital Management: this is a market to watch.
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