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A Review of Numerical Modelling of Cyclones and Tsunamis in the Arabian Sea by Royal Haskoningdhv

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A Review of Numerical Modelling of Cyclones and Tsunamis in the Arabian Sea by Royal Haskoningdhv International Journal of Hydrology Review Article Open Access A review of numerical modelling of cyclones and tsunamis in the arabian sea by royal haskoningDHV Abstract Volume 1 Issue 3 - 2017 Significant loss of life and damage to properties, ecosystems and marine facilities can occur due to various natural hazards such as cyclones and tsunamis. Modelling results Sarker MA Principal Engineer, Royal HaskoningDHV, UK are used for deriving robust design conditions for coastal and marine structures and facilities. The modelling results are also used for emergency planning and decision- Correspondence: Sarker MA, Principal Engineer, Royal making to estimate potential loss of life, damage to properties and marine facilities HaskoningDHV, Rightwell House, Bretton, Peterborough PE3 and to develop rescue and mitigation measures and plan clean-up operations. Royal 8DW, UK, Email [email protected] HaskoningDHV has developed regional hydrodynamic and wave models covering the Arabian Sea to address these issues. A total of 30 major cyclones were initially Received: July 26, 2017 | Published: September 20, 2017 identified in the Arabian Sea since 1945 from where 13 major cyclones were simulated. The tsunami modelling was carried out on an earthquake along the Makran Fault Line in 1945. Sample results from these modelling studies are presented in this paper for illustration purposes. The models could be used to simulate any cyclone and tsunami generated anywhere within the Arabian Sea. The methodology described in this article for modelling cyclones and tsunamis in the Arabian Sea could be applied to simulate these natural hazards at other sites around the world. Keywords: Numerical modelling, Cyclones, Tsunamis, Extreme waves, Storm surge, Port development, Arabian sea Introduction of the equator spin counter-clockwise whereas cyclones south of the equator spin clockwise due to the difference in Earth’s rotation on Cyclones and tsunamis are two of the most harmful natural hazards its axis. Cyclones are associated with high-pressure gradients and and can cause significant loss of life and damage to properties, consequently generate strong winds and storm surges. The destruction ecosystems and marine structures and facilities. Climate change is from a tropical cyclone depends on its intensity, size and location. worsening the situation. Given the above risks, Royal Haskoning DHV has developed regional tidal hydrodynamic and wave models Formation of tsunamis covering the Arabian Sea to investigate hazards from cyclones and tsunamis and to support their project work in the region. Cyclone A tsunami (also known as a seismic sea wave) is a series of water and tsunami modeling results are used for deriving robust design waves (similar to shallow water waves) in a water body caused conditions for coastal and marine structures and facilities. Cyclone by the abrupt displacement of a large volume of water initially and tsunami modelling results are also used for emergency planning resembling a rapidly rising tide. A tsunami is generated by underwater and decision-making to estimate potential loss of life, damage to earthquakes, landslides, fault breaks (ruptures), volcanic eruptions properties and marine facilities and to develop rescue and mitigation and other underwater explosions (such as the detonation of nuclear measures and plan clean-up operations. Sample results of cyclones devices), glacier calving, impact of objects from outer space (such as (waves and surge) and tsunamis from the modelling studies carried meteorites, asteroids, comets) and other disturbances in water. Ninety out by Royal Haskoning DHV are presented in this article for (90) percent or more of historical tsunamis in the world have been illustration purposes only. The model could be used to simulate any generated by earthquakes in the sea and coastal regions. Generally 2 cyclone and tsunami generated anywhere within the Arabian Sea. larger and shallower hypocentre earthquakes cause larger tsunamis. The methodology described in this article for modelling cyclones and tsunamis in the Arabian Sea could also be applied to simulate Damage from cyclones and tsunamis cyclones and tsunamis at other sites around the world. Significant loss of life and damage to properties, ecosystems and marine facilities can occur due to cyclones and tsunamis. They Formation of cyclones also impose significant risks during construction and operation of Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes or typhoons) are sea ports, oil terminals & jetties, offshore exploratory drilling rigs associated with warm and moist air and hence they form only over and offshore oil extraction rigs. Furthermore, these natural hazards warm ocean waters near the equator. The warm and moist air rises put lives and properties in coastal areas at greater risks. Very strong causing an area of lower pressure beneath. Cooler air moves into winds during a cyclone and very high tides during a tsunami may the lower pressure area and becomes warm and moist and rises too. damage installations, dwellings, transportation and communication When the warm and moist air rises, it cools down and forms clouds. systems, trees etc. and cause fires resulting in considerable loss of life, The whole system of clouds and winds spins and grows and is fed by damage to properties and ecosystems. Destruction of transportation or ocean’s heat and evaporated water continuously. An ocean temperature communication infrastructures hampers clean-up and rescue efforts. of at least 26.5°C spanning through a depth of at least 50m is required Heavy and prolonged rain and storm surges due to cyclones and high for the formation and growth of a cyclone.1 Cyclones that form north tides during a tsunami may cause floods and submergence of low Submit Manuscript | http://medcraveonline.com Int J Hydro. 2017;1(3):73‒77 73 © 2017 Sarker. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Copyright: A review of numerical modelling of cyclones and tsunamis in the arabian sea by royal haskoningDHV ©2017 Sarker 74 lying areas and can lead to mudslides and landslides in mountainous Cyclones modelling by royal haskoningDHV areas causing loss of life and property. The resulting floods, standing water and coastal inundation pollute drinking water sources and Royal HaskoningDHV has developed a Regional Cyclone Model spread diseases leading to outbreak of epidemics. Cyclones and for the Arabian Sea using the MIKE21/3 software. The cyclone tsunamis also cause secondary damage from floating debris, trees model can be used to simulate both waves and surges for cyclones and vessels, sediment erosion and deposition and spreading of fire. passing through the Arabian Sea. The MIKE21 Spectral Wave (SW) 8 During the last two centuries, tropical cyclones have been responsible Model was used to simulate the cyclone waves. The fully spectral for the deaths of about 1.9 million people worldwide.3 It is estimated formulation of the SW model is based on the wave action conservation that 10,000 people per year perish due to tropical cyclones.3 For equation, where the directional-frequency wave action spectrum is example, Bangladesh is especially vulnerable to tropical cyclones the dependent variable. The MIKE21/3 Flow Model FM was used 9 with around 718,000 deaths from them in the past 50 years.4 An to simulate the cyclone surge. The model is based on the numerical estimated 138,000 people were killed in Bangladesh by the 1991 solution of the two/three-dimensional incompressible Reynolds Cyclone.5 The deadliest tropical cyclone in Bangladesh was the 1970 averaged Navier-Stokes equations invoking the assumptions of Bhola Cyclone, which had a death toll of anywhere from 300,000 to Boussinesq and of hydrostatic pressure. Thus, the model consists of 3 6 continuity, momentum, temperature, salinity and density equations. In 500,000 lives. As reported in, the 1960 Valdivia earthquake (Mw 9.5), 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2), 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake a recent study for a site in southern Oman, a total of 30 major cyclones w were initially identified to have crossed the Arabian Sea since 1945 (Mw 9.2) and 2011 Tōhoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) are recent examples of powerful megathrust earthquakes that generated tsunamis (known and affected the Omani coastline. A total of 13 cyclones were selected as teletsunamis or distant tsunamis) that can cross entire oceans. The from this pool of 30 cyclones for the study based on a combination 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was among the deadliest natural disaster of severity (wind speed and, central pressure and diameter) and in human history with at least 230,000 people killed or missing in the proximity to site i.e. severe events were selected regardless of 14 countries bordering the Indian Ocean. The 2011 tsunami in Japan distance from the site while less severe events were only selected resulted to 15,894 deaths, 6,152 injured and 2,562 people missing. The if they made land fall within 300km of site. Tracks and pressure 2011 tsunami damaged many buildings, dams, bridges, nuclear power fields of the selected cyclones were obtained from the Joint Typhoon 10 stations and many other infrastructures. The World Bank’s estimated Warning Center (JTWC), USA. Tracks of some major cyclones 11 economic cost due to the 2011 tsunami was US$235 billion, making in the Arabian Sea are shown in Figure 2. The MIKE21 Toolbox it the costliest natural disaster in world history. As reported in,7 deaths was used to derive wind and pressure fields from the cyclone tracks from the 1945 earthquake in the Makran Fault that generated tsunamis and central pressures. The tool allows users to compute wind and along the coastlines of Iran and Pakistan were reported to be as pressure data due to tropical cyclone (hurricane or typhoon). Several many as 4,000 people.
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