Foresight Africa 2021

TOP PRIORITIES FOR THE CONTINENT IN 2021 BROOKINGS AFRICA GROWTH INITIATIVE FORESIGHT AFRICA 2021 I FORESIGHT AFRICA AUTHORS Editor John Nkengasong Aloysius Uche Ordu Kasirim Nwuke Benedict Okey Oramah Associate editor John Page Christina Golubski Damaris Parsitau Dilip Ratha Authors Witney Schneidman Toyin Adeniji Lerang Selolwane Akinwumi Adesina Landry Signé Edem Adzogenu Jan Christoph Steckel Gracelin Baskaran Thomas Sterner Haroon Bhorat Vera Songwe Otto Cars Admassu Tadesse Lazarus M. Chakwera Ashish Thakkar Jakkie Cilliers Brahima S. Coulibaly Quote contributors Nathalie Delapalme Winnie Byanyima Ira Dorband Luísa Dias Diogo Alain Ebobissé Kristalina Georgieva Uwagbale Edward-Ekpu Ellen Johnson Sirleaf Patricia Geli Graça Machel E. Gyimah-Boadi Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Chikwe Ihekweazu Gunnar Köhlin AGI team Stellah Kwasi Chris Heitzig Acha Leke Payce Madden Ben Leo John Mukum Mbaku With special thanks Wamkele Mene Jeannine Ajello Amina J. Mohammed David Batcheck Rushdi Nackerdien ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit Brookings gratefully acknowledges the organization devoted to independent program support provided by the Bill & research and policy solutions. Its mis- Melinda Gates Foundation. sion is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that Brookings recognizes that the value it research, to provide innovative, practi- provides is in its commitment to qua- cal recommendations for policymakers lity, independence, and impact. Activi- and the public. The conclusions and ties supported by its donors reflect this recommendations of any Brookings commitment. publication are solely those of its au- thor(s), and do not reflect the views of the Institution, its management, or its other scholars. TOP PRIORITIES FOR THE CONTINENT IN 2021 Contents Letter from the director 1 The Great Reset: 3 1 Relaunching African economies Support for public health: 22 2 Preparing for the next pandemic Human development: 36 3 Protecting vulnerable populations Private sector leadership: 52 Building African businesses 4 and creating jobs Continental integration: 62 5 Uniting a revitalized Africa Good governance: 76 Strengthening trust between people 6 and their leaders FORESIGHT AFRICA Letter from the director COVID-19 has turned 2020 into a year like no other, a year of historic con- sequence for Africa and the world. While our immediate future will inevi- tably be consumed with addressing the virus and its consequences--and ensuring that no African is left behind in the rollout of vaccines—we also can’t allow the virus to destroy the gains in growth, improved livelihoods, and unity we have made in recent decades. There must be a balance. It is with these contrasting themes in mind that we’ve organized the 2021 edition of Foresight Africa. Beginning with the cover, we introduce design features that embody the narrative within. While recognizing the havoc it has wreaked, we see our shared response to the virus as a source of light, spreading hope and unleashing a new dawn on the African continent. We hope, in this edition, you will be inspired by the renewed solidarity among Africa’s leaders and by the region’s young entrepreneurs, who are succeeding in Africa against all odds. In addition to including prominent thought leaders from the region, we’ve made particular effort to bring in new voices to inform the debate on alternative futures for Africa. Moreover, each chapter begins with a salient quote from an eminent woman, emphasizing the transformative leadership of women—in management roles, on the front lines of the pandemic, and in everyday life. Thus, as we seek to maintain the hallmarks and traditions of Foresight Africa, we, like the world, cannot escape the virus, but Africa, alongside its global partners, can overcome it. Although the virus was slow to arrive on Africa’s shores, the economic im- pacts of the disease were not, as the global economy halted and Africa’s growing, largely informal, service-based economy was forcibly shut down to pre-empt the disease’s spread. Until that point, the region was experiencing unprecedented growth and accounted for many of the world's fastest-growing emerging market economies--though, that growth was, disappointingly, largely jobless and not necessarily in the most productive sectors. Thus, in Chapter 1, our authors offer strategies for how Africa’s policymakers can approach the pandemic as an opportunity for a “great reset” of their economies so that they can grow back stronger than ever before. If leaders don’t stop the virus and secure the health of their people, though, these economies cannot grow. Indeed, given already poor health outcomes in the region, African citizens are uniquely vulnerable to widespread Aloysius disease and face severe, longer-term consequences of getting sick. While Africa seems, so far, to have been spared the worst of COVID-19, no one Uche Ordu knows what the next pandemic threat might look like, nor where it will come from. What is certain, though, is that the next pandemic is not so Senior Fellow and Director, much a matter of if, but when. With this idea in mind, in Chapter 2, our Africa Growth Initiative, Global Economy experts share their strategies for shoring up health systems on the conti- and Development, nent to be better prepared for such a pandemic in the future. Brookings Institution Still, progress on human development cannot halt in the face of the virus, @aloysiusordu as the region stands to lose so many of the massive gains it has made in 1 TOP PRIORITIES FOR THE CONTINENT IN 2021 health and education in recent years. In Chapter 3, our authors debate strategies for maintaining the momentum towards improved human development outcomes and the role of the Sustainable Development Goals in this new world. Given the central role of women in the pandemic response as well as their unique vulnerability under COVID-19, we also explore ways to better support African women and girls both now and in the long term. Of course, without investment in Africa’s people, businesses, and resources, that much-needed economic growth will not surface. As the world looks to reopen, ma- jor players in African economies are rethinking their roles, retooling their business models, and rediscovering how their unique strengths can benefit the region more broadly. In Chapter 4, then, our authors explore the top challenges facing African entrepreneurs and businesses as they look to restart and grow, as well as posit ideas for encouraging the growth of the private sector and bolstering its involvement in the post-pandemic recovery. The need for regional unity and economic integration has never been more important, especially for these African businesses. While the pandemic has thrown a wrench into the implementation of the promising African Continental Free Trade Agreement, African leaders must continue to move forward with the ambitious project. Indeed, an Africa’s policymakers can approach the pandemic as an opportunity for a “great reset” of their economies so that they can grow back stronger than ever before. Africa with more open economic boundaries will not only decrease the region’s reli- ance on the global economy and enhance the economic prospects of her people, but also facilitate access to important goods and services to make its citizens healthier and more prosperous. In Chapter 5, then, our authors explore other ways in which a united Africa makes for a stronger Africa and offer recommendations for enhancing those relationships. Underpinning the response to all these complex challenges is good governance. Strengthened democratic institutions, transparent elections, and inclusive reforms are key to building and maintaining safe and productive societies, especially as the region recovers from the twin health and economic crises. The extent to which governments can best serve their people not only during crises, but at all times, depends on mutual trust between government and their people. Thus, in Chapter 6, our experts delve into the complex relationship between governments and citizens, especially in times of crisis, to examine how leaders can govern inclusively, fairly, and effectively. With this and every iteration of Foresight Africa, we aim to capture the top priorities for the region in the coming year, offering recommendations for African and global stakeholders for creating and supporting a strong, sustainable, and successful Afri- ca. In doing so, we hope that Foresight Africa 2021 will promote a dialogue on the key issues influencing development policy and practice in Africa during the upcoming year. Such ideas will ultimately provide sound strategies for sustaining and expand- ing the benefits of economic growth to all people of Africa in the years ahead. Over the course of the year, we will incorporate the feedback we receive from our readers and continue the debate on Africa’s priorities through a series of events, research reports, op-eds, and blog posts. 2 THE GREAT 1RESET: Relaunching African economies 3 TOP PRIORITIES FOR THE CONTINENT IN 2021 Emerging stronger: How Africa’s policymakers can bolster their economies during and beyond the COVID-19 crisis “COVID-19 has revealed that globalization has made humanity co-vulnerable, left the majority of society behind, led to the strengthening of value chains that are maximized for individuals and companies rather than optimized for society. The top priority for leaders and policymakers is to weave a policy tapestry that engages and promotes active citizenship, creates an African economy that is resilient and inclusive, by leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area and optimizing integration and regional trade.” Acha Leke Mrs. Graça Machel, Chair, Mandela Institute for Development Studies (MINDS) Senior Partner and Chairman, Africa Region, McKinsey & Company As the world begins to emerge sponse, access to sufficient and from the economic crisis created affordable financing to recover @achaleke by the COVID-19 pandemic, the big from the estimated 3 to 5.4 percent question in Africa—beyond how do contraction in GDP, and strength- we protect the health of average ened policies for creating jobs.

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