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Big Hit Entertainment (352820) Big Hit Entertainment (352820) Acquisition to Bring Justin Bieber and Ariana Grande Into the Fold Sunhwa Lee Food & Beverage / Entertainment April 5, 2021 +82-2-6114-2939 [email protected] Maintain BUY; TP raised by 13.0% We maintain BUY on Big Hit Entertainment (to be renamed HYBE this year), but raise our from KRW270,000 to KRW305,000 TP from KRW270,000 to KRW305,000. The company’s recent acquisition of U.S. music publisher Ithaca Holdings via its wholly owned subsidiary Big Hit America should (1) bolster the pipeline of global artists and (2) diversify the range of merchandise found on the company’s mobile app Weverse—a global fan community platform. We now expect 2021E-23E revenue CAGR for Weverse at 27.5% (as opposed to 19.1% previously). We believe future EPS growth (via acquisition-backed inorganic growth) will outweigh EPS dilution from the rights issue to fund the Ithaca acquisition. Rights issue to fund acquisition of U.S. Big Hit Entertainment announced on Apr 2 that it would acquire Ithaca Holdings via its company Ithaca Holdings wholly-owned subsidiary Big Hit America. For the acquisition, Big Hit America would conduct a rights issue totaling KRW1.0tn, with the full amount of newly issued shares (950mn) to be acquired by parent Big Hit Entertainment. Big Hit Entertainment, in a bid to secure operating capital, decided on a rights issue worth KRW440.0bn targeting its existing shareholders. Meanwhile, related parties of Ithaca Holdings, in a bid to solidify collaborations, will participate in Big Hit Entertainment’s private placement, which should secure around KRW182.0bn. Ultimately, the parent will have around KRW2.0tn in cash (via existing cash holdings + two rights issues); in exchange for the 100% interest in Ithaca Holdings, it will pay around KRW1.2tn. Acquisition to bolster pipeline of Ithaca Holdings owns a variety of music interests, including SB Projects (management global artists, Weverse revenue clients Justin Bieber and Ariana Grande) and Big Machine Label Group (famous country Buy Maintain Trading Data Risk & Total Return (annualized over three years) Free float 40.0% Target Price (Raised) KRW305,000 Avg. T/O val. (3m, KRWbn) 108.1 Return 1 2 3 4 High5 Risk Dividend yield* 0.0% Foreign ownership 7.8% 1 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Major shareholders Si-Hyeok Pang and 2 others 34.8% Total return 25.5% 2 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Current price (Apr 2) KRW243,000 Netmarble 19.9% 3 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Consensus target price KRW298,182 Stock Price Performance 4High FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Market capitalization USD7.7bn (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M 5 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE * 12-month forward Absolute 17.4 51.9 0.0 0.0 Relative 14.8 40.2 0.0 0.0 Earnings Forecast & Valuation Stock Price & Relative Performance Fiscal year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E Revenue (KRWbn) 796 1,202 1,532 1,792 Relative performance (LHS) Stock price (RHS) OP (KRWbn) 146 221 290 352 % KRW NP to control. int. (KRWbn) 86 155 206 250 0 300,000 EPS (KRW) 2,843 4,248 5,637 6,864 -10 260,000 EPS growth (%) 9.3 49.4 32.7 21.8 -20 P/E (x) 56.3 57.2 43.1 35.4 220,000 -30 EV/EBITDA (x) 27.1 36.7 27.5 22.1 180,000 -40 P/B (x) 4.8 6.6 5.7 4.9 140,000 ROE (%) 12.5 12.2 14.2 14.9 -50 Div. yield (%) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 -60 100,000 Apr '20 Jul '20 Oct '20 Jan '21 Source(s): Company data, KB Securities singers), and has major subsidiaries Silent Content Ventures (content producer and distributor) and Drew House (producer of merchandise based on proprietary artist IPs). The tie-up should shift Big Hit Entertainment away from its high dependence on the seven-member Korean boy band BTS (aka Bangtan Boys) and facilitate its entry into the overseas merchandise market with global artist IPs, which should translate into a jump in revenue for Weverse Shop. 2 Investment Opinion & Risks Base-case scenario: Catalysts Bull-case scenario KRW455,000 (75.6x implied P/E) 1) 2021E-23E revenue CAGR at 16.0%-50.0% 2) 2021E-23E OP CAGR at 20.0%-60.5% Base-case scenario (target price) KRW305,000 (50.7x implied P/E) Bull-case scenario: Upside risks 1) 2021E-23E revenue CAGR above 50.0% Current price KRW243,000 2) 2021E-23E OP CAGR above 60.5% Bear-case scenario: Downside risks Bear-case scenario KRW188,000 (31.2x implied P/E) 1) 2021E-23E revenue CAGR below 16.0% 2) 2021E-23E OP CAGR below 20.0% Revised Earnings Estimates Valuation & Target Price Calculation (KRWbn, %) Previous Revised Change 2021E 2022E 2021E 2022E 2021E 2022E 1) Valuation method: Revenue 1,195 1,472 1,202 1,532 0.6 4.1 Discounted cash flow model OP 219 272 221 290 1.0 6.8 NP (to control. int.) 153 192 155 206 1.0 6.9 2) Target price calculation: Source(s): KB Securities estimates 7.98% WACC; 4.15% TGR KB Estimates vs. Consensus 3) Target price range: KRW188,000 - KRW 455,000 (KRWbn, %) KB Estimates Consensus Difference 2021E 2022E 2021E 2022E 2021E 2022E 4) Valuation at target price: Revenue 1,202 1,532 1,206 1,630 -0.3 -6.0 50.7x 12m fwd implied P/E, 16.94x P/B OP 221 290 241 333 -8.5 -12.8 NP (to control. int.) 155 206 171 231 -9.3 -11.1 Source(s): FnGuide, KB Securities estimates Revenue Composition (2020) Earnings Sensitivity Analysis Albums Concerts Ad/performance fees (%) EPS change (%) Merchandising/Licensing Content Other 4.1 2021E 2022E +1% in FX rate 0.9 0.4 16.8 +1pp in interest rate -0.3 -0.1 40.3 32.5 5.9 0.4 Source(s): Company data, KB Securities Peer Group Comparison (KRWbn, x, %) Market P/E P/B EV/EBITDA ROE Dividend Yield Cap 2021E 2022E 2021E 2022E 2021E 2022E 2021E 2022E 2021E 2022E Big Hit Entertainment 8,657 49.6 37.0 11.3 8.7 30.6 22.6 22.9 23.4 0.0 0.0 Warner Music Group 19,767 54.1 34.2 50.9 15.4 22.4 18.6 94.2 45.0 1.4 1.5 JYP Entertainment 1,239 28.0 23.5 5.4 4.6 18.9 15.7 19.4 19.4 0.5 0.6 YG Entertainment 835 34.2 32.8 2.3 2.1 14.9 12.4 6.6 6.4 0.2 0.4 Source(s): Bloomberg consensus, KB Securities 3 I. Valuation 7.98% WACC, 4.15% TGR, 6.4x We maintain BUY on Big Hit Entertainment, but raise our TP from KRW270,000 to EV/EBITDA exit multiple KRW305,000. Our TP, derived using the DCF model, is based on 7.98% WACC (7.98% cost of equity; 3.06% after-tax cost of debt; 0.99 52w adj. beta) and 4.15% implied TGR (after 2032; 6.4x EV/EBITDA exit multiple), representing 50.7x implied 12m fwd, 16.94x P/B with 25.5% upside (against Apr 2 closing price). Table 1. TP Calculation: Discounted Cash Flow Model (KRWbn) 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E Terminal Cash flow projection OP a 142 221 290 352 444 551 668 795 926 1,056 1,178 1,285 1,370 Marginal tax rate (%) b 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 NOPLAT c=a*(1-b) 107 166 218 264 333 413 501 596 695 792 884 964 1,028 Depreciation & amortization d 0 1 1 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Total cash flow e=c+d 107 166 218 269 339 418 507 602 700 797 889 969 1,033 Change in working capital f 17 -86 -89 -85 -81 -76 -73 -69 -63 -57 -52 -47 -43 Capex g -2 -4 -4 -5 -6 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 Total investments h=f+g 15 -89 -93 -90 -86 -82 -78 -74 -68 -62 -57 -52 -48 FCFF i=e+h 123 77 126 179 253 336 429 527 632 735 832 916 985 Adjusted FCF 77 126 179 253 336 429 527 632 735 832 916 20,575 PV of cash flow WACC 7.98% Terminal growth rate 4.15% Discount 1.00 0.93 0.86 0.79 0.74 0.68 0.63 0.58 0.54 0.50 0.46 0.43 PV of terminal value 77 116 154 201 247 292 333 369 398 417 425 8,846 Valuation Sum of cash flow (PV) j 11,875 Net cash k -63 Investments in non-cons. affiliates l 1 Non-controlling interests m 4 Stock option n 0 Fair EV o=j+k+l-m-n 11,810 No. of outstanding shares (’000) p 38,715 Target price (KRW) q=o/p 305,000 Current price (KRW; Apr 2, 2021) 243,000 Upside (%) 25.5 12m fwd EPS 6,017 12m fwd BVPS 18,008 12m fwd P/E (x) 50.7 12m fwd P/B (x) 16.94 Source(s): Company data, KB Securities estimates 4 Fig 1. WACC Calculation (1) Cost of debt is average yield of BBB+ credit (applied BBB+, the median rating of companies issuing credit, as four peer WACC (%) entertainment companies have no available 7.98 history of credit issuance); market value of debt is total debt as of end-1H20 Debt Equity (2) Cost of equity derived using CAPM; RFR is recent 3m avg.
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