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HYBE Corporation Buy (352820 KS ) (Initiate) [Korea] Entertainment April 6, 2021 HYBE Corporation Buy (352820 KS ) (Initiate) Evolving into a major platform player TP: W340,000 Upside: 37.1% Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. Jeong -yeob Park [email protected] Valuation and recommendation Initiate coverage with Buy and TP of W340,000 We derived our target market value of W13tr for HYBE Corporation (HYBE; formerly Big Hit Entertainment) by applying a P/E of 60x to our 2021-22F average net profit attributa ble to owners of the parent (W218.6bn). Our target multiple stems from our view of HYBE as the leading fan platform provider (with direct and indirect access to top global artists). Post-IPO, HYBE has traded at between 27x and 45x P/E (20% premium to the upper band of the three major domestic entertainment stocks). In our view, a re-rating is due. The company has expanded its artist portfolio through partnerships with Universal Music Group (UMG)/YG Entertainment and its 100% acquisition of Ithaca Holdings. This should allow it to further strengthen the market position of its platforms. Value of fan platform s to come Weverse/Weverse Shop: Millennials/Gen Z -driven platforms poised for exponential growth in into view profits and users In our view, the emergence of direct-to-fan platforms was inevitable, given the new normal of contactless interactions and the distinct content power/strong fan engagement of music. (Music channels account for 40% of YouTube traffic.) HYBE has brought platforms and labels into its fold at lightning speed, creating a sizable lead over potential competition in terms of technology and content. We believe Weverse will bring together previously fragmented fan monetization models and encourage spending by fans outside of Korea and Japan. Entertainment/content companies have raised their values through aggressive M&As. The cases of Nexon , Walt Disney, and Netflix point to the potential for additional M&A activit ies . Comparable to Nasdaq -listed 60x P/E is hardly a stretch platforms We believe Weverse can be compared to Nasdaq-listed social network/content platforms, as they share in common several key advantages—e.g., user-generated content, a traffic-utilizing commerce business model, and strong user engagement. Comparisons with leading platforms based on per-user market cap/revenue and valuation indicators (2021F P/S and P/E ratios) suggest the stock has more than 30% upside potential. In the long term, we believe the company’s value will be tied to its ability to establish a firm footing in the market as a new platform. Earnings normalization is near For 2021, we expect operating profit of W232.5bn. With the resumption of artist activities (live performances, etc.), the ratio of direct to indirect revenue should converge to 50:50. Key data Current price (4/5/21, W) 248,000 Market cap (Wbn) 8,835 160 HYBE KOSPI 140 OP (21F, Wbn) 232 Shares outstanding (mn) 36 120 Consensus OP (21F, Wbn) 246 Free float (%) 40.0 100 EPS growth (21F, %) 56.4 Foreign ownership (%) 7.8 80 P/E (21F, x) 55.8 Beta (12M) 1.51 60 40 Market P/E (21F, x) 14.0 52-week low (W) 142,000 3.20 7.20 11.20 3.21 KOSPI 3,120.83 52-week high (W) 258,000 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Absolute 19.5 0.0 0.0 Revenue (Wbn) - 301 587 796 1,115 1,748 Relative 15.9 0.0 0.0 OP (Wbn) - 80 99 146 232 384 OP margin (%) - 26.6 16.9 18.3 20.8 22.0 NP (Wbn) - -70 74 86 160 277 EPS (W) - -2,559 2,601 2,843 4,446 7,587 ROE (%) - -80.8 56.5 12.5 12.6 18.5 P/E (x) - - - 56.3 55.8 32.7 P/B (x) - - - 4.8 6.7 5.5 Div. yield (%) - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. April 6, 2021 HYBE Corporation I. Valuation Initiate coverage with Buy rating and TP of W340,000 We initiate our coverage on HYBE with a Buy recommendation and target price of W340,000. We derived our target market value of W13tr by applying a P/E of 60x to our 2021-22F average net profit attributable to owners of the parent (W218.6bn). We view HYBE as the industry’s leading fan platform provider with direct and indirect access to top global artists. Considering the value of the company’s direct-to-fan platforms, our target P/E of 60x looks undemanding. Since its listing six months ago, HYBE has traded at between 27x and 45x (12-month forward P/E basis), averaging a modest 20% premium to the upper band of the three major domestic entertainment stocks: YG Entertainment, JYP Entertainment, and SM Entertainment. Since 2010, amid significant changes in the industry (the growth of the Japanese live performance market, the accumulation of new artists, and the advent of global music/video platforms), the upper band of the three big entertainment stocks has averaged 35x. In our view, a 20% premium does not adequately reflect the value of HYBE’s innovative platforms and extensive intellectual property (IP). Indeed, since early this year, HYBE has expanded its portfolio of global chart-topping artists through partnerships with UMG/YG Entertainment and its 100% acquisition of Ithaca Holdings. We also note that the company is gaining exclusive access to new business opportunities. In our view, the emergence of direct-to-fan platforms was inevitable, given the new normal of contactless interactions and the distinct content power/strong fan engagement of music. (Music channels account for 40% of YouTube traffic and attract an exceptionally high number of comments.) To strengthen its lead over rivals in this growing segment, HYBE has brought platforms and labels into its fold and plans to increase fan monetization in new markets. While there have been some doubts over whether top global platforms (NAVER, Kakao, Netflix, Walt Disney, etc.) represent a suitable peer group for HYBE, we expect such doubts to dissipate as the company further strengthens its lead in direct-to-fan platforms. In our view, a re-rating is due. Table 1. HYBE: TP calculation (Wbn) Valuation (P/E) 2020 2021F 2022F 2021-22F avg. Notes Target market value 13,118 13,118 13,118 13,118 No. of shares increased 8.7% due to rights offering NP 85 160 277 219 Target P/E 154.9 81.8 47.4 60.0 Global peer group P/E Fair price (W) 338,843 338,843 338,843 338,843 TP: W340,000 (37.1% upside) Note: Reflected increase in no. of shares due to rights offering Source: Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates Table 2. Comparison of Weverse with other global platforms Platform Users Market 2021F Market cap Revenue 2021F 2021F Similarities with Weverse Company type (mn) cap (Wtr) revenue per user (W) per user (W) P/S (x) P/E (x) Fan - Weverse 35 8.7 1.2 247,331 34,626 7.1 49.6 community Social Content sourcing: Free user-generated content Facebook 2,797 960.1 121.7 343,268 43,495 7.9 24.5 networking Business model: Channeling user traffic to commerce sites Twitter 330 57.5 5.4 174,283 16,374 10.6 69.8 User demographics: Mostly millennials and Gen Zers Snap 265 92.8 4.3 350,122 16,222 21.6 1,702.8 Business model: ( Subscription fees ) - (fixed cost of content Content Netflix 204 269.7 33.8 1,324,286 166,158 8.0 50.9 production) Leverage Business model: ( Subscription fees ) - (platform/label profit Spotify 345 58.8 12.5 170,501 36,113 4.7 - sharing) Limited leverage Dating Value provided: Emotional satisfaction Match Group 67 43.3 3.2 646,537 47,704 13.6 63.7 Business model : Partial monetization Bumble 20 12.8 0.8 640,658 40,848 15.7 633.8 (tiered pricing depending on service ) Note: User count is based on MAUs (redundancies included) for HYBE (V Live + Weverse); MAUs for Facebook; 1Q19 MAUs (recent data not released) for Twitter; DAUs for Snap; paid subscribers for Netflix; subscribers for Match Group (Tinder); and MAUs for Spotify/Bumble. Source : Company data , Bloomberg , Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates Mirae Asset Securities Research 2 April 6, 2021 HYBE Corporation The Weverse platform gives music fans the unprecedented ability to communicate with each other and with artists; in this way, it seeks to encompass all fan activities and bring together previously fragmented fan monetization models. In this report, we compare Weverse with global platform providers Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Spotify, and Match Group to identify similarities and evaluate the future of HYBE’s platform business. 1) Social networking platforms: Free user-generated content High margins and user loyalty Weverse provides a space for fans to find and share information about their favorite artists. Users of the platform spend most of their time on community bulletin boards where fans post comments and images. As with Facebook and Twitter posts, the content is created voluntarily by users at no cost. User-generated content (UGC) allows social networking platforms to secure high profits and user loyalty.
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