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Compass Development | Q4 2018 SF New Development Market Insights

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Compass Development | Q4 2018 SF New Development Market Insights New Development Market Insights San Francisco Q4 2018 COMPASS DEVELOPMENT 1699 VAN NESS AVENUE SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94109 — P: 415.345.3000 — COMPASS.COM/DEVELOPMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Compass Development and The Mark Company’s research teams have joined forces to create this New Development Market Insights report, an in-depth review of San Francisco’s core downtown neighborhoods. Published quarterly and highlighting the city’s vast condo market, we pull information from a combination of public and proprietary databases which access the most up-to-date closing information for new development properties as well as resales. The quarterly Market Watch, beginning on Page 3, highlights overall market trends in District 6, 7 , 8, and 9, which collectively encompass the majority of new development projects in the city. We subsequently break down each of these districts individually to paint a more granular picture of each sub markets. On Page 9, we begin a citywide exploration of each currently-selling new development project, including the most recent closings at each, followed by a brief overview of upcoming projects which are under construction or have yet to break ground. For any inquiries regarding our research, please reach out to [email protected]. TABLE OF CONTENTS Quarterly San Francisco Market Watch .............................................Page 3 San Francisco Districts 6-9 .................................................. Page 3 San Francisco District 6 .....................................................Page 4 San Francisco District 7 .....................................................Page 5 San Francisco District 8..................................................... Page 6 San Francisco District 9 .....................................................Page 7 New Construction Project Overviews ...............................................Page 8 New Development Pipeline .......................................................Page 24 New Development Market Insights - San Francisco - Q4 2018 2 SF MARKET WATCH/ Q4 2018 Condominium values remained strong YoY during Q4-18 in what was Map of Coverage: SF Districts 6-9 otherwise a trying period for real estate sales across San Francisco’s downtown core. Owing in large part to the devastating wildfires which affected air quality in the city, would-be buyers remained steadfast on the sidelines in November. 579 closings were recorded during the period, down 18.3% YoY, with an average sale price of $1.4M, which is flat to the same quarter in 2017. Valuations on a per-square-foot basis increased slightly year-over-year by 0.8%, reaching an average of $1,171/SF, while that same measure declined 8.3% from Q3-18. Despite softer performance in the 4th quarter, however, the condo market strengthened on the whole during 2018. Sales volumes were up 6.5% to 2,685 closings in 2018, with an average PPSF of $1,252/SF, 6.6% higher than 2017. Market Performance, Districts 6-9 San Francisco Market Performance CONDO Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 # of Sales Condos in Districts 6-9 Blended Avg. PPSF 1,000 $1,400 Avg. Sales Price $1,375,435 -0.8% $1,386,627 -2.8% $1,415,705 900 $1,300 Blended Avg. PPSF $1,171 0.8% $1,162 -8.3% $1,277 800 $1,200 Number of Sales 579 -18.3% 709 -0.7% 583 700 $1,100 DOM 37 N/A 39 N/A 38 600 $1,000 ANNUAL 2018 YoY% 2017 YoY% 2016 500 $900 PERFORMANCE Avg. Sales Price $1,420,562 2.6% $1,384,097 1.7% $1,361,378 400 $800 6.6% -0.5% 300 $700 Avg. PPSF $1,252 $1,174 $1,180 200 $600 Number of Sales 2,685 6.5% 2,521 -13.3% 2,907 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 DOM 53 N/A 42 N/A 43 Sales by Price Point, Districts 6-9 Under $1M Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 $2M-$3M Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 Avg. Sales Price $794,925 -1.8% $809,541 0.9% $787,917 Avg. Sales Price $2,377,397 0.4% $2,368,887 1.6% $2,339,612 Avg. PPSF $1,070 3.5% $1,034 -4.4% $1,119 Avg. PPSF $1,300 -0.5% $1,307 -0.5% $1,306 Number of Sales 202 -17.6% 245 -12.6% 231 Number of Sales 56 -16.4% 67 47.4% 38 DOM 35 N/A 34 N/A 30 DOM 34 N/A 48 N/A 35 $1M-$2M Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 $3M+ Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 Avg. Sales Price $1,391,842 2.2% $1,361,748 -0.5% $1,399,082 Avg. Sales Price $4,477,651 5.5% $4,245,488 -12.9% $5,143,726 Avg. PPSF $1,105 1.5% $1,089 -5.0% $1,163 Avg. PPSF $1,797 5.7% $1,700 -16.2% $2,143 Number of Sales 299 -17.4% 362 6.0% 282 Number of Sales 19 -38.7% 31 -38.7% 31 DOM 29 N/A 34 N/A 31 DOM 41 N/A 37 N/A 34 Note: Data includes new construction and resale New Development Market Insights - San Francisco - Q4 2018 3 SF MARKET WATCH/ Q4 2018 District 6, which encompasses Lower Pacific Heights, Anza Vista, SF District 6 - Condos Western Addition, North Panhandle, Alamo Square, and Hayes Valley, had 76 condo closings in Q4-2018 (+4.1% YoY) at an average sales Q4 2018 price of $1.2M (-1.4% YoY). Condos in District 6 typically trade at a discount to their peers closer to $1.2M -1.4% the downtown core, having recorded an average of $1,037/SF during Avg. Sale Price from Q4 2017 Q4-18, up 2.3% YoY. There are no currently-selling new development projects in District 6, however, resales at relatively new buildings have $1,037/SF +2.3% been closing at relatively higher valuations. For example, 400 Grove On 76 Sales from Q4 2017 closed 4 sales with a blended average PPSF of $1,421, and 388 Fulton closed 2 sales with a blended average PPSF of $1,510, demonstrating that the area is potentially poised for price appreciation. 76 +4.1% # Sales in Q4 2018 from Q4 2017 Market Performance, District 6 San Francisco Market Performance CONDO Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 # of Sales Condos in District 6 Blended Avg. PPSF 200 $1,200 Avg. Sales Price $1,217,117 -1.4% $1,234,519 -3.8% $1,264,891 175 $1,100 Avg. PPSF $1,037 2.3% $1,014 -6.6% $1,110 150 $1,000 Number of Sales 76 4.1% 73 38.2% 55 125 $900 DOM 30 N/A 36 N/A 27 100 $800 ANNUAL 2018 YoY% 2017 YoY% 2016 75 $700 PERFORMANCE Avg. Sales Price $1,267,446 3.1% $1,228,867 13.2% $1,085,353 50 $600 25 $500 Avg. PPSF $1,092 7.8% $1,013 -5.2% $1,069 0 $400 Number of Sales 325 1.2% 321 -24.1% 423 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 DOM 34 N/A 36 N/A 38 Sales by Price Point, District 6 Under $1M Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 $2M-$3M Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 Avg. Sales Price $823,833 9.2% $754,084 10.0% $749,000 Avg. Sales Price $2,428,600 17.3% $2,070,000 1.2% $2,400,000 Avg. PPSF $1,047 3.6% $1,011 -10.8% $1,173 Avg. PPSF $1,038 1.3% $1,024 -8.0% $1,128 Number of Sales 30 50.0% 20 87.5% 16 Number of Sales 5 150.0% 2 66.7% 3 DOM 24 N/A 32 N/A 35 DOM 18 N/A 15 N/A 23 $1M-$2M Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 $3M+ Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 Avg. Sales Price $1,398,920 -0.9% $1,410,964 0.0% $1,399,583 Avg. Sales Price - N/A - N/A - Avg. PPSF $1,055 3.3% $1,021 -3.6% $1,094 Avg. PPSF - N/A - N/A - Number of Sales 39 -22.0% 50 8.3% 36 Number of Sales 0 N/A 0 N/A 0 DOM 23 N/A 35 N/A 22 DOM - N/A - N/A - Note: Data includes new construction and resale New Development Market Insights - San Francisco - Q4 2018 4 SF MARKET WATCH/ Q4 2018 District 7, which encompasses The Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights, SF District 7 - Condos and Presidio Heights, had 90 closings in Q4-18, up a strong 5.9% YoY. Valuations, on the other hand, declined materially, with average sales Q4 2018 price down 20.4% YoY to $1.6M, and average PPSF down 6.6% to 1,237/ SF. $1.6M -20.4% The decline in price and valuation was due, at least in part, to the Avg. Sale Price from Q4 2017 closings of six expensive residences closing at The Pacific in Q4-2017, which skewed the average up during that period. The average condo $1,237/SF -6.6% in District 7 spent 31 days on market in Q4-18, while those valued On 90 Sales from Q4 2017 between $1M-$3M sold 10 days faster, spending an average of 21 days on market. 90 +5.9% # Sales in Q4 2018 from Q4 2017 Market Performance, District 7 San Francisco Market Performance CONDO Q4-18 YoY% Q4-17 QoQ% Q3-18 # of Sales Condos in District 7 Blended Avg.
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