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International Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies and World Agricultural Markets: the Case of Soybeans and Soybean Products Taleb Mohammad Awad Iowa State University

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International Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies and World Agricultural Markets: the Case of Soybeans and Soybean Products Taleb Mohammad Awad Iowa State University Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Retrospective Theses and Dissertations Dissertations 1987 International monetary and exchange rate policies and world agricultural markets: the case of soybeans and soybean products Taleb Mohammad Awad Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd Part of the Agricultural and Resource Economics Commons, and the Agricultural Economics Commons Recommended Citation Awad, Taleb Mohammad, "International monetary and exchange rate policies and world agricultural markets: the case of soybeans and soybean products " (1987). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 8612. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/8612 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Dissertations at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Retrospective Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. INFORMATION TO USERS The most advanced technology has been used to photo­ graph and reproduce this manuscript from the microfilm master. UMI films the original text directly from the copy submitted. Thus, some dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from a computer printer. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyrighted material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are re­ produced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand comer and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each oversize page is available as one exposure on a standard 35 mm slide or as a 17" x 23" black and white photographic print for an additional charge. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. 35 mm slides or 6" X 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. HIUMIAccessing the World's Information since 1938 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA Order Number 8805042 International monetary and exchange rate policies and world agricultural markets: The case of soybeans and soybean products A wad, Taleb Mohammad, Ph.D. Iowa State University, 1987 UMI 300 N. ZeebRd. Ann Arbor, MI 48106 International monetary and exchange rate policies and world agricultural markets; The case of soybeans and soybean products by Taleb Mohammad Awad A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Major: Economics Approved: Signature was redacted for privacy. InXhar^e/ofMajor Work Signature was redacted for privacy. For the Major Department Signature was redacted for privacy. For the Graduate College Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 1987 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION 1 The Problem 1 Objectives 4 Literature Review 7 Studies of monetary policy, exchange rates and agriculture 16 World soybean trade studies 25 Conclusions 28 CHAPTER II. DESCRIPTION OF WORLD SOYBEAN AND PRODUCT MARKETS AND INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE RATE AND MONETARY POLICY 31 World Soybean and Product Markets 31 International Exchange Rate and Monetary Policies 34 U.S. Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy 36 Behavior of the U.S. exchange rate since the early 1970s 37 U.S. exchange rate development and the conduct of U.S. monetary policy 37 European Community (EC) Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy 41 Exchange rate development in the EC since the early 1970s 42 West German Exchange Rate Development and the Conduct of German Monetary Policy 44 Japanese Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy 46 Behavior of the yen since the early 1970s 47 Japanese exchange rate development and the Conduct of Japanese monetary policy 48 Brazilian Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy 50 Brazilian exchange rate behavior since the early 1970s 51 Brazilian exchange rate development and the conduct of Brazilian monetary policy 51 Canadian Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy 54 Behavior of the Canadian exchange rate since the early 1970s 55 Canadian exchange rate management and the conduct of Canadian monetary policy 55 Exchange Rate and Monetary Policies of African Countries 57 Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Asia and Oceania Countries 61 iii Page Indian monetary and exchange rate policy 52 Indian exchange rate development and the conduct of Indian monetary policy 64 CHAPTER III. METHODOLOGY 66 Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination 66 The traditional approach to exchange rate determination 67 The monetary approach to exchange rate determination 69 The portfolio balance approach 75 Towards a general model of exchange rate determination 81 Reduced form of the general exchange rate model 85 Exchange rate expectations 93 The Conceptual Model of the World Soybean and Soybean Derivatives Markets 101 A diagrammatic illustration of world soybean markets 102 A generalized representation of the full model 106 Monetary Policy Effects on World Soybean and Products Markets 112 Specification of General Conceptual Linked Model with Endogenous Exchange Rate Behavior 120 CHAPTER IV. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND MODEL VALIDATION 139 Scope of the Study 139 Estimation 140 United States 195 EC Region 200 Japan 202 Canada 204 Brazil 206 Africa Region 209 Asia and Oceania Region 210 Rest of the World Region 210 Soybean Price Linkages 211 Soymeal Price Linkages 211 Soyoil Price Linkages 212 Trade Flows Linkages 212 General Price Linkages 212 Exchange Rate 214 Validation of the Model 224 iv Page CHAPTER V. DYNAMIC SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF U.S. MONETARY POLICY AND WORLD SOYBEAN MARKETS 232 Scenario One: The General Case 265 United States 265 European Community 266 Japan 267 Canada 268 Brazil 269 Africa 271 Asia and Oceania 271 Rest-of-the-World (ROW) 272 Scenario One Summary 273 Scenario Two: Exogenous General Price Levels 274 Scenario Three: Exogenous Soybean Products 276 Scenario Four: Only Soybean Meal is Endogenous 277 Scenario Five: Only Soybean Oil is Endogenous 278 The Long-Run Elasticities 279 Conclusions 285 CHAPTER VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 287 Conclusions and Implications 292 Suggestions for Further Research 297 BIBLIOGRAPHY 301 APPENDIX 1 309 APPENDIX 2 311 APPENDIX 3 314 1 CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION The Problem After the U.S. dollar devaluations of the early 1970s, the volume and value of agricultural exports rose substantially. This apparent correlation between movements in the value of the dollar and agricultural prices and exports has spawned much research into their theoretical and quantitative linkages. Much of the research has taken a monetary approach to exchange rate determination, emphasizing the influence of monetary policy on currency valuation. Three key assumptions have formed the basis of much of the quantitative research in this area; 1) purchas­ ing Power Parity (PPP), or the perfectly flexible prices assumption, 2) Interest Parity (IP), or perfect capital mobility, and 3) the absence of expectations about future exchange rate movements. To make the link between monetary policy and agricultural exports and prices, the common practice has been to incorporate a submodel of exchange rate determina­ tion based on these assumptions into larger models of agricultural trade. The PPP doctrine hypothesizes that the exchange rate stands in a set relationship to the home and foreign price levels. Therefore, it implies that the exchange rate can be derived strictly from commodity market conditions, a view that has been seriously questioned particularly for the short run. Even from a long-run perspective, PPP is not assured theoretically in the presence of nontraded goods and transfer costs. A 2 number of researchers, including Balassa (1964), Dornbusch (1980a), Frenkel (1981b), Cumby and Obstfeld (1984), and Frenkel (1984a) have provided evidence against PPP in the short run. The IP condition assumes that the interest rate in the home country equals the foreign interest rate plus the anticipated rate of deprecia­ tion of the home currency. It implies that home and foreign bonds are perfect substitutes and that capital is perfectly mobile among countries. Actual capital movements, however, are constrained to some extent by national intervention policies and various risk factors. Cumby and Obstfeld (1984), for example, assuming rational expectations and correct­ ing for the dependence of the conditional covariances of relative inflation forecast error on nominal interest differentials, tested the IP condition extensively. They found strong evidence against IP over the recent floating period. Evidence of capital control and the existence of a risk premium is provided by Frankel and Froot (1985). Modern theories of exchange rate determination emphasize the critical role of expectations in determining the exchange rate. One major motivation for introducing expectations into exchange rate modeling is that unanticipated changes, or "news", are to a large extent responsible for the sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate during a given time period. Dornbusch (1980a) and Frenkel (1981a) discuss the importance of accounting for the role of "news" in modeling exchange rate behavior. The incorporation of exchange rate determination submodels into models of agricultural trade, to
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