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Monetary and Fiscal Policies of Brazil, 1953-1963

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Monetary and Fiscal Policies of Brazil, 1953-1963 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES OF BRAZIL 1953-1963 By JAMES HENDERSON DUKES A DISSEHTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE COUNCIL OF THE UNH'ERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 1968 Copyright by James Oaxidarson Dukes 1966 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Aa most of the nacessax*y Information for this dissertation perfoz*oe comes from a foreign country, 1 find that there are several persons or organizations that should be thanked for their assistance. Without the aid x»ecelved, much of the resesu*ch material used would have been neither primary nor current. First, I would like to thank the Library of Congress for the extensive use of their facilities. Also very im- portant were the assistance of the staffs of the Brazilian Qnbassies in v/ashlngton, D. C., and in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, and the use of the library of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D. C. I am indeed thankful for the assistance given me by Gertrude Heare of the TJhited States Department of Commerce in allowing me to borrow ’’the only available copy" of the 1964*’1966 development plan, which was replete with pertinent statistics and projections. And finally, I must show more than appreciation for the tremendous amount of assistance from my wife in the fora of preliminary and final typing, editing, and en- couragement throughout the whole period, from research to completion of the work. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 PART I. INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE Chapter 1. THE BANKING SYSTEM I 5 2. THE TAX SYSTEM 3 . THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM 9I 4. THE FINANCIAL AND LABOR MARKETS I34 PART II. PIANNING OPERATIONS 5 . ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PIANS I 7 O 6. PIANNING ORGANIZATIONS AND GOALS 202 PART III. ANALYSIS 7 . INFLATION 211 8. CONCLUSIONS 259 BIBLIOGRAPHY 272 Iv LIST OP TABLES Table . Page 1. List of Brazilian Presidents with Dates of Inauguration and Departure When Prior to Normal Tenure, with Explanations - 1951-1964 . 12 2. Banco do Brasil - Distribution of Branches. • . 23 3. Distribution of Credit - Selected Years 1957-1963 ...... .... 27 4. Lc»ns to the Private Sector by the Banco do Brasil and Private Commercial Banks - 1951-1963 29 5 . Deposits and Credit of Deposit Banks - 1953-1963 42 6. Federal Tax Revenues of Brazil - I95 O-I 963 . 54 7- Rates of Progressive Individual Income Tax. 62 8. Percentage Rates of Inheritance and Gift Tax in State of Sao Paulo 67 9 . Excess Profits Tax 7I 10. Determination of Excess Profits Tax Base in 1959 73 # 11. Weighted Averages of Import Premiums (Agios) with Free Market and Official Market Hates to the U. S. Dollar - 1953-1961 82 12. Import Agios Collected and Export Bonuses Distributed by the Federal Government .... 84 13* Operation and Ownership of Brazilian Railroads - 1889-1958 101 14. Earnings, Expenses, and Deficits of Railroads Administered by R.P.P.S.A. - 1958 114 15 . Electrification of Railroads in Brazil - 1938-1958 118 16 . Trackage, Rolling Stock and Power Sources of Hallways in Brazil - I938-I96O II 9 17. Gross Formation of Capital - I 947-I963 I 37 V LIST OP TABLES (continued) Table Page 16. Government Participation in Gross Fixed Capital Formation - 1953-1963 138 19* Government Expenditures in Investment and Consuoqption > 1953-1963. ll|.0 20. Functional Distribution of Fixed Capital Formation - 19ij.9-1958 lilJL 21. Movements of Direct Foreign Investments and Earnings - 1952-1963 li|-2 22. Movement of Foreign Loan Capital and Its Amortization - 1952-1963 ••••••••••• 14-3 23 • Transactions within the Principal stock Markets - Selected Years 1938 to 1963* • • • • Hl-8 2i4.. Heal Minimum Wage Indexes for the City of Rio de Janeiro - Selected Years from 194.0 to 1963 163 25* Projects of the Joint Brazil-United States Development Commission .•••• • 179 26. Functional Distribution of Projects of the Joint Commission for Economic Development. I64. 27* Estimated Investments for Program of Targets - 1957-1961 186 28. Sources of Local Funds for Program of Targets. • 190 29* Special Funds for the Financing of the Program of Targets .............. 191 30. Foreign Loans and Direct Foreign Investments Registered with SUMOC - 1955-1957 192 31* Indexes of Cost of Living in the City of Sao Pai£Lo and of Wholesale Prices - 1953-1963 217 32. Exports^ Inqports, Inport Coefficient, Balance of Trade, and Terms of Trade - 1953-1963 • • . 235 33* Federal and Consolidated Government Budgets, Money Supply, Loans to the Private sector and Cost of Living Index - 194-7-1963 238 Vi : LIST OP TABLES (continued) Table Page 3^. Index Values of Paper Money Issued, Money Supply, Money In Circulation, Velocity of Money, General Price Level, and Real Value of Commercial Transactions - 1953-1963. ... 240 35. Receipts, Expenditures, and Deficits of the Cash Budget of the Union In Percentages of Gross National Product - 1953-1963 241 36. Indexes of Quantum of Imports, Exports, and Coffee Exports; Coffee Export Prices; Ability to Import; and Terms of Trade - I 945-I 963 . 245 37. Current Transactions of Balance of Payments Accounts - 1952-1963 . 247 00 • Index Numbers of Extraction or Production of Iron Ore, Pig Iron, Steel Ingots, Coal, and Cement - Selected Years 1953-1965 .... 262 39. Extraction and Production of Crude Petroleum, Motor Gasoline, and Electric Power Capacity - Selected Years 1953-1965 263 40. Production of Farm and Hoad Construction Tractors - Selected Years I 96O-I965 265 41 Production of Automotive Transport - 1957-1965. 266 vll INTRODUCTION General Outline Althovigh the title of this work is The Monetary and Fiscal Policies of Brazil 19^3-1963 . stress will be on fiscal policy at the expense of monetary policy. This choice actually was not made by the writer; instead it evolved around the facts that Brazil's money market is very narrow, and its capital market almost nonexistent.^ The result is that even though the standard tools of monetary policy are available, their effectiveness is very weak when compared with a country like the United States, Canada or the United Kingdom. This same argument is not evident when a compari- son is made of the effectiveness of the manipulation of government spending and taxation between Brazil and countries of the economic "center." In fact, if anything, the tools fiscal policy in Brazil may be considered as relatively more powerful than in the developed covintrles. Structurally, this study is divided into three parts; Part I, Institutional Structure; Part II, Planning Opera- tions; and Part III, Analysis. ^Gabinete do Ministro Extraordinario para o Planeja- mento e Coordenaifao Economico, Programa de AqSo Econ'omico ' do Governo ; 1961j.-1966 (Brazilian Fi anning Ministry, 1964 I mimeographed^ ) , p. IX-10. 1 2 Part I consists of four chapters presenting descrip- tions of the banking system, the tax system, the transpor- tation system, and the financial and lalaor markets. This should supply the reader with requisite basic information for evaluation of the material covered in Parts II and III. Part II is composed of two chapters covering national plans developed both before the time period of this paper and during the period, and certain regional development plans sponsored by the federal government. The organiza- tion of the Development Council, the National Planning Commission (COPLAN), and the Ministry of Planning will also be presented in Part II. The final section consists of two chapters. The first chapter deals with the changes that have evolved over the subject period. The two variables analyzed in detail are inflation and economic growth. In the last chapter, the final analysis is made of Just how successful Brazil was in achieving the goals that are presented in Part II, and precisely what steps would have improved the situation; that Is, obviating any structural or political changes. Physical and Human Bases of the Brazilian Economy The primary aim of this section is to describe the geography, population, and government system of Brazil, so that the economic potentials and limitations of monetary ; 3 and riscal actions of the Brazilian government may be better understood.^ Regional Division and Geography The United States of Brazil is a republic divided into twenty-one states, five territories^ and a federal district. She is the largest of the Latin American republics, having an area of 3»288,000 square miles, conq>rislng I4.7 per cent of South America. Before the statehood of Alaska, Brazil was larger than the United States plus another Texas. The coast line of Brazil is l4.,603 miles long, all along the Atlantic Ocean. Topographically the country is divided into three major regions: (1) the huge Amazon Drainage Basin in the north, comprising over 53 por cent of the national area, but only 3 per cent of the population; (2) the Central Plateau, which extends south of the Amazon Basin to the Paraguay and Parana Rivers; and (3) the Coastal Plain, a narrow strip 100 miles wide or less, stretching from San Luis, Maranhao, in The general information on these subjects is drawn chiefly from the following sources: Earl E. Lackey and Ester S. Anderson, Regions and Nations of the World (New York: D. Van Nostrand Coi^any, Inc., 19k(>)i A. M. Nielsen, Economic and Industrial Geography (New York: Pitman PublisEIng Corporation, 1950j; Nels A. Bengston and William Van Royen, Fundamentals of Economic Geography (Now York: Prentice -Hall, Inc., 1950 George T. Renner, editor. World Economic Geography (Now York: Thomas Y. Crowell Company, 1951 ) Hilgard 0' Roily Sternberg, "The Physical Basis of Brazilian Society,” Brazil: Portrait of Half a Continent , od. by T. Lynn Smith and Alexander Marchant (Haw York* T’b** Drydon Press, 1951 ); Hilgard 0* Roily Sternberg, "Brazil - Complex ^iant,” Foreign Affairs. Vol. k3. No. 2 (Now York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1965). k the Northeast just below the Amazon Basin all the way down throaigh the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul.
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