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Measuring the Effect of Transportation Policies on the U

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Measuring the Effect of Transportation Policies on the U CITY OF KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI KANSAS CITY DOWNTOWN STREETCAR TIGER DISCRETIONARY GRANTS PROGRAM ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTATION JUNE 3, 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 2 2. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 6 3. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................................................................................ 6 4. PROJECT OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 7 4.1 Base Case and Alternatives ..................................................................................................... 7 4.2 Project Cost and Schedule ....................................................................................................... 8 4.3 Disruptions Due to Construction ............................................................................................. 9 4.4 Effects on Long-Term Outcomes ............................................................................................. 9 5. GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS ...................................................................................................................... 11 6. DEMAND PROJECTIONS ....................................................................................................................... 11 6.1 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 11 6.2 Assumptions .......................................................................................................................... 12 6.3 Demand Estimates and Projections ....................................................................................... 13 7. BENEFITS MEASUREMENT, DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................... 13 7.1 State of Good Repair ............................................................................................................. 13 7.2 Economic Competitiveness .................................................................................................... 15 7.3 Livability ................................................................................................................................ 20 7.4 Environmental Sustainability................................................................................................. 24 7.5 Safety ..................................................................................................................................... 26 8. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND BCA OUTCOMES ....................................................................................... 28 9. BCA SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................. 29 10. SUPPLEMENTARY DATA TABLES ........................................................................................................ 31 10.1 Annual Estimates of Total Project Benefits and Costs ........................................................... 32 10.2 Annual Demand Projections .................................................................................................. 33 10.3 State of Good Repair: Annual Benefit Estimates .................................................................. 34 10.4 Economic Competitiveness: Annual Benefit Estimates......................................................... 35 10.5 Livability: Annual Benefit Estimates ..................................................................................... 36 10.6 Environmental Sustainability: Annual Emissions Avoided, in Metric Tons ........................... 37 10.7 Environmental Sustainability: Annual Benefit Estimates, Discounted .................................. 38 10.8 Safety: Annual Benefit Estimates ......................................................................................... 39 695 Atlantic Avenue, 2FL, Boston, MA 02111 Telephone: (617) 357-7763 Fax: (617) 357-7759 http://www.hdrinc.com Page | 1 1. Executive Summary The Kansas City Streetcar project is located within a narrow, two-mile long corridor running from Kansas City’s River Market on the north, through the Central Business District and the Crossroads areas to Union Station and Crown Center on the south end of the city. The 2.0 mile alignment (3.9 track-miles) would provide a modern electric streetcar serving 11 stations spaced approximately every two blocks. Completion of the project will offer a modern transit solution that fills in a gap in the city’s resurging downtown. In downtown Kansas City, there are limited linkages between activity centers. The streetcar project would improve downtown mobility options for pedestrians, bicyclists, and vehicle drivers. Pedestrians will be provided with an accelerated means for getting from one area of downtown Kansas City to another, and existing automobile drivers will be given another mode choice. Bicyclists will benefit from the reduced traffic levels, and they will be permitted to utilize the streetcar as part of their overall trip. Environmental and congestion benefits are also anticipated, as some existing automobile drivers may elect to use the streetcar instead of their personal vehicles. The Streetcar improves walkability, as well as transportation accessibility for elderly and transit- dependent populations. In addition, revitalization of underdeveloped parcels is supported, helping spur mixed-use development and anchor sustained economic growth. A summary table with the changes proposed in the project and the associated benefits is provided below. 695 Atlantic Avenue, 2FL, Boston, MA 02111 Telephone: (617) 357-7763 Fax: (617) 357-7759 http://www.hdrinc.com Page | 2 Table ES-1: Summary of Improvements and Economic Benefits Baseline & Changes to Population Summary Current Baseline / Type of Affected by Economic of Results Page Problems Alternative Impacts Impact Benefit (Mill $ 2012) Ref. Monetized value Streetcar of reduced users, bus Lack of generalized riders, connectivity travel cost for automobile between transit Reduce streetcar users users, modes number of and remaining pedestrians automobile automobile and bicyclists trips, vehicle users $10.0 10-24 Kansas City miles traveled; traffic vehicle increases Monetized value traffic decreases speed of travel of pavement travel speed, Government maintenance increases travel savings time, elevates pollution levels $0.007 13-15 Local, state, Reduce Monetized value region, and pollutant of emission national emissions reductions population Construction $0.098 24-26 of Kansas City Downtown Automobile users, Streetcar Change streetcar Monetized value number of users, bus of accident injuries and Limited riders, costs fatalities transportation pedestrians options and few and bicyclists stops in the corridor that may -$0.13 26-27 hinder growth in Value of Community in the area increase in Increase general and property values property value property (residential and owners commercial) $94.05 15-18 Create residual value of Monetized infrastructure Government residual value of after 20 years Streetcar of Streetcar operation $3.62 13-15 The period of analysis used in the estimation of benefits and costs corresponds to 23 years, consisting of 2.5 years of construction and 20 years of operation. The City of Kansas City and partners have requested $20 million in TIGER V funds; approximately 20 percent of the project’s total capital cost, to leverage significant local and private investment for the design, construction and operation of the Kansas City Downtown Streetcar. More than 70 percent of the project’s cost will be funded with local public and private funding. The TIGER Grant will be used to enhance the project and to reduce local burden associated with assessments used to finance the project. 695 Atlantic Avenue, 2FL, Boston, MA 02111 Telephone: (617) 357-7763 Fax: (617) 357-7759 http://www.hdrinc.com Page | 3 A summary of the relevant data as well as the calculations used to derive the benefits and costs of the project are shown in Table ES-2 (in dollars of 2012). Based on the Benefit Cost Analysis presented in the rest of this document, the project is expected to generate approximately $108 million in total benefits and a Benefit/Cost ratio of approximately 1.0. With a 3 percent real discount rate, the Net Present Value of the project would increase to $62.7 million, for a Benefit/Cost ratio of 1.5. In addition to the monetized benefits presented in Table ES-2, the project also generates significant benefits that are difficult to quantify, thus increasing the true overall value to society. A brief description of those Streetcar-induced benefits is provided below. Economic Competitiveness More direct transportation access provided to the central business district’s employment centers Tourism efforts are supported – the Streetcar is close to many of Kansas City’s major activity centers and visitor facilities Kansas City’s efforts to refocus development and investment downtown are supported The downtown is improved by the Streetcar, minimizing existing business departures and potentially attracting new businesses, and supporting and enhancing planned developments Livability Transportation choices and connectivity
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