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Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Land in Southern Taiwan

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Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Land in Southern Taiwan sustainability Article Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Land in Southern Taiwan Kuo-Ching Huang * , Chen-Jai Lee, Shih-Liang Chan and Cheng-Hsin Tai Department of Real Estate & Built Environment, National Taipei University, New Taipei City 237303, Taiwan; [email protected] (C.-J.L.); [email protected] (S.-L.C.); [email protected] (C.-H.T.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +886-2-8674-1111 (ext. 67436) Received: 30 April 2020; Accepted: 3 June 2020; Published: 5 June 2020 Abstract: Maintaining a certain amount of agricultural land and promoting its agricultural land utilization efficiency is essential in a country. Many innovative strategies for adapting to climate change have been implemented in developed countries. To achieve the goal of climate change adaptation for agricultural land, a vulnerability assessment of farmland is indispensable. Based on the research framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study applied the structure of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation to build criteria and conduct an evaluation of a designated area in Southern Taiwan. We identified the key factors of the vulnerability of farmland, through mapping with spatial analysis, and by using geographic information system tools. The main purpose of the application of a vulnerability assessment is not to explicitly describe the status of agricultural land to climate change, but to help local government and farmers to identify the critical area, and to discuss the appropriated adaptive policies. According to the results of the vulnerability assessment of agricultural land, the entire study region can be divided into three patterns: Pattern 1, located in the western coastal zone, filled with various attributes of high vulnerability; Pattern 2, distributed on the central plain region in the east, with complete blocks of agricultural land and low vulnerability; and Pattern 3, located in the central plain region to the west, a region in which areas with various vulnerability levels. The following three types of adaptation strategies for climate change for farmland were established: (1) the enhancement of agricultural production, (2) the maintenance of agricultural production, and (3) the conservation of the agricultural environment. The current results can serve as valuable guidelines for governments to implement feasible local adaptation strategies in the future. Keywords: agricultural land; vulnerability assessment; adaptation strategy; geographic information system; Taiwan 1. Introduction Global climate change leads to the occurrence of various phenomena, such as an increase in temperature, change in rainfall frequency, rise in sea levels, decrease in snow-covered areas, and increase in the occurrence of extreme events. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that the impact of climate change can reduce global agricultural productivity, as well as regional water resource shortages in the future, particularly in island countries. Taiwan is located in the subtropical island climate zone, and is therefore extremely sensitive to the effects of climate change. The resulting events may include damage to coastal areas from the rising sea levels, an increase in water supply-demand because of rainfall changes, reduction in agricultural Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637; doi:10.3390/su12114637 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020,, 12,, 46374637 22 of of 2122 agricultural productivity, and the more frequent occurrence of natural disasters. Climate change productivity,critically affects and various the more issues frequent—one occurrenceof the main of issues natural being disasters. food se Climatecurity. To change adjust critically to the impact affects variousof climate issues—one change on of European the main issuesagriculture, being foodthe European security. ToUnion adjust has to proposed the impact adjustments of climate change for crop on Europeanproduction agriculture, and farming the Europeansystems, Unionas well has as proposed proposed adjustments agricultural for land crop use production patterns and exploiting farming systems,agricultural as wellland asversatility, proposed the agriculturalreby balancing landuse environmental, patterns exploiting social, agriculturaland economic land functions versatility, in therebydifferent balancing European environmental, regions [1]. In social,this context, and economic the approach functions for maintaining in different Europeana certain quality regions and [1]. Inquantity this context, of farmland the approach resources for to maintaining ensure domestic a certain food quality self-sufficiency and quantity has ofbecome farmland a strateg resourcesic issue to ensureat the national domestic level food in self-su Taiwan.fficiency has become a strategic issue at the national level in Taiwan. In general, responses to the impact of climate climate change change have have primarily primarily focused focused on on two two dimensions: dimensions: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation Mitigation strategies strategies are are concerned with actions resulting in decreased greenhouse gas emissions,emissions, whereas adaptation strategies focus on reducing vulnerability to climate change impact by using advanced mechanisms to predict and prevent the occurrence of disasters, thereby minimizing thethe eeffectsffects ofof suchsuch disastersdisasters [[2]2].. To promotepromote thethe eeffectiveffective use use of of agricultural agricultural land land resources resources in in developed developed countries, countries, an an emphasis emphasis on agriculturalon agricultural development development has beenhas graduallybeen gradually more frequentlymore frequently considered considered in spatial in planning spatial processesplanning andprocesses new strategyand new patterns. strategy patterns. In these planningIn these planning processes, processes, the Adaptation the Adaptation Policy Frameworks Policy Frame (APFs)works for(APFs) Climate for Climate Change, Change put forward, put forward by the Unitedby the United Nations Nations Development Development Program Program (UNDP) (UNDP) and Global and EnvironmentGlobal Environment Facility inFacility 2004, havein 2004 been, have widely been applied widely for applied practices for conductedpractices conducted in various fields,in various and havefields, become and have the become main reference the main andreference relevant and planning relevant criteriaplanning specifications. criteria specifications. The APFs The not APFs only helpnot only stakeholders help stakeholders understand understand the possible the options possible for options the implementation for the implementation of adaptation of adaptation programs, technology,programs, technology, and resources, and but resources also facilitate, but the also implementation facilitate the of implementation climate change adaptation of climate programs change byadaptation decision programs makers in by local decis areasion andmakers various in local sectors areas and and countries various [sectors3,4]. and countries [3,4]. The APF implementationimplementation process comprises fivefive components:components: (1) scoping and designing an adaptation project,project, (2) (2) assessing assessing current current vulnerability, vulnerability, (3) assessing (3) assessing future climate future risks, climate (4) formulating risks, (4) anformu adaptationlating an strategy, adaptation and (5)strategy, continuing and (5) the continuing adaptation the process adaptation (Figure 1process). Among (Figure these, 1). assessing Among currentthese, assessing vulnerability current and vulnerability assessing future and assessing climate risksfuture evaluate climate risks current evaluate and future current vulnerability and future trendsvulnerability and risks, trends indicating and risks, that vulnerabilityindicating that assessment vulnerability is significant, assessment with is highsignificant research, with value high for designingresearch value climate for change designing adaptation climate strategies. change Therefore,adaptation approaches strategies. forTherefore, measuring approaches the impact for of climatemeasuring change the onimpact agricultural of climate land resourceschange on through agricultural vulnerability land resources assessment through are a crucial vulnerability issue for adaptationassessment strategiesare a crucial on issue agricultural for adaptation land. strategies on agricultural land. Figure 1.1.Adaptation Adaptation Policy Policy Framework Framework (APF) (APF Implementation) Implementation Process Process and Basic and Components. Basic Components (United. Nations(United Nations Framework Framework Convention Convention on Climate on Change,Climate Change, 2008, APF 2008, Technical APF Technical Paper). Paper). Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 3 of 21 The vulnerability of agricultural land is mainly engendered by the climatic impact. The natural environment and climatic conditions are both strongly associated with agricultural productivity, directly affecting crop yield and quality [1,5]. Therefore, when external environmental changes caused by climatic factors affect the crop growth conditions of agriculture, agricultural production often decreases within inappropriate temperature and rainfall. This decrease also reduces the efficiency of agricultural land use, and affects the whole agricultural economy in advance, eventually resulting
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