Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Land in Southern Taiwan

sustainability

Article Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Land in Southern Taiwan

Kuo-Ching Huang * , Chen-Jai Lee, Shih-Liang Chan and Cheng-Hsin Tai

Department of Real Estate & Built Environment, National Taipei University, New Taipei City 237303, Taiwan; [email protected] (C.-J.L.); [email protected] (S.-L.C.); [email protected] (C.-H.T.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +886-2-8674-1111 (ext. 67436)

Received: 30 April 2020; Accepted: 3 June 2020; Published: 5 June 2020

Abstract: Maintaining a certain amount of agricultural land and promoting its agricultural land utilization efficiency is essential in a country. Many innovative strategies for adapting to climate change have been implemented in developed countries. To achieve the goal of climate change adaptation for agricultural land, a vulnerability assessment of farmland is indispensable. Based on the research framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study applied the structure of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation to build criteria and conduct an evaluation of a designated area in Southern Taiwan. We identified the key factors of the vulnerability of farmland, through mapping with spatial analysis, and by using geographic information system tools. The main purpose of the application of a vulnerability assessment is not to explicitly describe the status of agricultural land to climate change, but to help local government and farmers to identify the critical area, and to discuss the appropriated adaptive policies. According to the results of the vulnerability assessment of agricultural land, the entire study region can be divided into three patterns: Pattern 1, located in the western coastal zone, filled with various attributes of high vulnerability; Pattern 2, distributed on the central plain region in the east, with complete blocks of agricultural land and low vulnerability; and Pattern 3, located in the central plain region to the west, a region in which areas with various vulnerability levels. The following three types of adaptation strategies for climate change for farmland were established: (1) the enhancement of agricultural production, (2) the maintenance of agricultural production, and (3) the conservation of the agricultural environment. The current results can serve as valuable guidelines for governments to implement feasible local adaptation strategies in the future.

Keywords: agricultural land; vulnerability assessment; adaptation strategy; geographic information system; Taiwan

1. Introduction Global climate change leads to the occurrence of various phenomena, such as an increase in temperature, change in rainfall frequency, rise in sea levels, decrease in snow-covered areas, and increase in the occurrence of extreme events. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that the impact of climate change can reduce global agricultural productivity, as well as regional water resource shortages in the future, particularly in island countries. Taiwan is located in the subtropical island climate zone, and is therefore extremely sensitive to the eﬀects of climate change. The resulting events may include damage to coastal areas from the rising sea levels, an increase in water supply-demand because of rainfall changes, reduction in agricultural

Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637; doi:10.3390/su12114637 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020,, 12,, 46374637 22 of of 2122 agricultural productivity, and the more frequent occurrence of natural disasters. Climate change productivity,critically affects and various the more issues frequent—one occurrenceof the main of issues natural being disasters. food se Climatecurity. To change adjust critically to the impact affects variousof climate issues—one change on of European the main issuesagriculture, being foodthe European security. ToUnion adjust has to proposed the impact adjustments of climate change for crop on Europeanproduction agriculture, and farming the European systems, Unionas well has as proposed proposed adjustments agricultural for land crop use production patterns and exploiting farming systems,agricultural as well land as versatility, proposed the agriculturalreby balancing landuse environmental, patterns exploiting social, agricultural and economic land functions versatility, in therebydifferent balancing European environmental, regions [1]. In social,this context, and economic the approach functions for maintaining in different Europeana certain quality regions and [1]. Inquantity this context, of farmland the approach resources for to maintaining ensure domestic a certain food quality self-sufficiency and quantity has ofbecome farmland a strateg resourcesic issue to ensureat the national domestic level food in self-su Taiwan.fficiency has become a strategic issue at the national level in Taiwan. In general, responses to the impact of climate climate change change have have primarily primarily focused focused on on two two dimensions: dimensions: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation Mitigation strategies strategies are are concerned with actions resulting in decreased greenhouse gas emissions,emissions, whereas adaptation strategies focus on reducing vulnerability to climate change impact by using advanced mechanisms to predict and prevent the occurrence of disasters, thereby minimizing thethe eeffectsffects ofof suchsuch disastersdisasters [[2]2].. To promotepromote thethe eeffectiveffective use use of of agricultural agricultural land land resources resources in in developed developed countries, countries, an an emphasis emphasis on agriculturalon agricultural development development has been has gradually been gradually more frequently more frequently considered considered in spatial in planning spatial processes planning andprocesses new strategyand new patterns. strategy patterns. In these planningIn these planning processes, processes, the Adaptation the Adaptation Policy Frameworks Policy Frame (APFs)works for(APFs) Climate for Climate Change, Change put forward, put forward by the Unitedby the United Nations Nations Development Development Program Program (UNDP) (UNDP) and Global and EnvironmentGlobal Environment Facility inFacility 2004, havein 2004 been, have widely been applied widely for applied practices for conductedpractices conducted in various fields,in various and havefields, become and have the become main reference the main andreference relevant and planning relevant criteriaplanning specifications. criteria specifications. The APFs The not APFs only helpnot only stakeholders help stakeholders understand understand the possible the options possible for options the implementation for the implementation of adaptation of adaptation programs, technology,programs, technology,and resources, and but resources also facilitate, but the also implementation facilitate the of implementation climate change adaptation of climate programs change byadaptation decision programs makers in by local decis areasion andmakers various in local sectors areas and and countries various [sectors3,4]. and countries [3,4]. The APF implementation implementation process comprises fivefive components: components: (1) scoping and designing an adaptation project, project, (2) (2) assessing assessing current current vulnerability, vulnerability, (3) assessing (3) assessing future climate future risks, climate (4) formulating risks, (4) anformu adaptationlating an strategy, adaptation and (5)strategy, continuing and (5) the continuing adaptation the process adaptation (Figure 1process). Among (Figure these, 1). assessing Among currentthese, assessing vulnerability current and vulnerability assessing future and assessing climate risksfuture evaluate climate risks current evaluate and future current vulnerability and future trendsvulnerability and risks, trends indicating and risks, that vulnerabilityindicating that assessment vulnerability is significant, assessment with is high significant research, with value high for designingresearch value climate for change designing adaptation climate strategies. change Therefore, adaptation approaches strategies. for Therefore, measuring approaches the impact for of climatemeasuring change the on impact agricultural of climate land resources change on through agricultural vulnerability land resources assessment through are a crucial vulnerability issue for adaptationassessment strategiesare a crucial on issue agricultural for adaptation land. strategies on agricultural land.

Figure 1. 1. AdaptationAdaptation Policy Policy Framework Framework (APF) (APF Implementation) Implementation Process Process and Basic and Components. Basic Components (United. Nations(United Nations Framework Framework Convention Convention on Climate on Change,Climate Change, 2008, APF 2008, Technical APF Technical Paper). Paper). Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 3 of 21

The vulnerability of agricultural land is mainly engendered by the climatic impact. The natural environment and climatic conditions are both strongly associated with agricultural productivity, directly affecting crop yield and quality [1,5]. Therefore, when external environmental changes caused by climatic factors affect the crop growth conditions of agriculture, agricultural production often decreases within inappropriate temperature and rainfall. This decrease also reduces the efficiency of agricultural land use, and affects the whole agricultural economy in advance, eventually resulting in a reduced number of farmers, loss in competitiveness, and food security problems, all in the agricultural sector. Furthermore, climate change impact also affects the multiple functions of agricultural land in various ways (Table1). Climate change causes serious environmental problems related to agricultural land, human activity, and land use. These effects are caused by not only extreme climatic events and disasters, but also by changes in climatic conditions. Thus, the agricultural land vulnerability can be defined as the climate change-induced decline in the effects of the multiple functions of agricultural land.

Table 1. Types of Climate Change Impacts Aﬀecting Agricultural Land.

Function Impact Type Description Change in climatic conditions to Climate change leads to changes in temperature and grow crops rainfall and directly affects crops. Agricultural Climate change alters rainfall patterns; erratic rainfall Production Increased demand for irrigation increases irrigation demand. Climate change causes extreme rainfall and increases flood frequency and strength, even external impacts as Floods soil erosion, movement of nutrients and pesticides, salinization, water withdrawal, and groundwater contamination. Changes in temperature and amplitude and frequency of Heatwaves and cold snaps heat waves or cold snaps result in yield loss. Agricultural land-use patterns are necessary for Changes in farming institutions reallocating response to climate change impact. Socioeconomic Factors Implementation of agricultural facilities increases the Implementation of agricultural adaptation ability for climate change and the allocative facilities efficiency of agricultural resources. To adapt to changes in climatic conditions, the Evolution of agroprocessing agroprocessing industry attempts to reposition its industry functions through restructuring. The sustainability of agricultural culture and the related agricultural industries requires adaptation polices to Impact of agricultural culture deal with the challenges of low competitiveness resulting from climate change. Environmental Changes in climate patterns affect the original conditions Impact on biodiversity Ecology of natural environments and affect biodiversity. Source: Lee and Chan, 2012 [6].

Traditionally, vulnerability and risk assessment studies in the agricultural sector have mainly focused on agricultural production and technical departments [7–12], and have seldom considered agricultural land. However, the concept of the multiple functions of agricultural land has altered these traditional values. Agricultural land resources are often required for food production as a principle, but these are within socioeconomic and ecological functions to maintain the environment and local development [6,13]. This study adopted Southern Taiwan as its case study area and aimed to (1) integrate the concept of the multiple functions of agricultural land based on the research framework of vulnerability proposed by the IPCC [14], (2) develop a method for both assessing and mapping the vulnerability of agricultural land, (3) introduce the proposed adaptation strategies for the proper maintenance of agricultural land Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 4 of 22

This study adopted Southern Taiwan as its case study area and aimed to (1) integrate the concept of the multiple functions of agricultural land based on the research framework of vulnerability Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 4 of 21 proposed by the IPCC [14], (2) develop a method for both assessing and mapping the vulnerability of agricultural land, (3) introduce the proposed adaptation strategies for the proper maintenance of resources,agricultural and (4)land provide resources, directions and for (4) governments provide directions to work for with governments the local adaptive to work actions with of climatethe local changeadaptive on farmland.actions of climate change on farmland.

2.2. Case Case Study Study Area: Area Southern: Southern Taiwan Taiwan TheThe case case study study area area is is located located in in southern southern Taiwan, Taiwan, including including Yunlin Yunlin county, county, Chiayi Chiayi county, county and, and 2 TainanTainan city, city etc.,, etc. (Figure, (Figure2). 2). Southern Southern Taiwan,Taiwan, withwith a total total area area of of approximately approximately 5386 5386 km km2, is ,the is main the mainfood food production production area areain Taiwan; in Taiwan; its current its current agricultural agricultural area areais approximately is approximately 308,981 308,981 ha, as ha, shown as shownin the in green the green area in area Figure in Figure 2. The2. cultivation The cultivation areas areas for the for critical the critical crop cropof this of area, this area,paddy paddy rice, cov rice,ers coversapproximately approximately 63,325 63,325 ha, thereby ha, thereby occupying occupying more more than than20% 20%of the of total the totalagricultural agricultural land landin the in study the studyarea area(Table (Table 2). Most2). Most agricultural agricultural areas areas are arelocated located in the in thetropical tropical and and subtropical subtropical climate climate zones. zones. The Thetopology topology mainly mainly comprises comprises plains, plains, but but some some hills hills and and mountains are locatedlocated onon thethe eastern eastern side. side. Creeks,Creeks, streams, streams, and and rivers rivers are are spread spread over over the the entire entire area, area, causing causing ﬂooding flooding problems problems during during storms storms oror heavy heavy rain. rain. Recently, Recently those, those events events have have brought brought complex complex disasters disasters and and impacts impacts on on agricultural agricultural landland and and its its surrounding surrounding areas, areas such, such as as soil soil erosion erosion in in the the upstream, upstream, seawater seawater ﬂooding, flooding and, and land land salinizationsalinization in in the the western western coast, coast, drainage drainage and and water water supply supply problems, problems and, and so so on. on It. It is is necessary necessary to to examineexamine the the impact impact of of climate climate change change on on agricultural agricultural development, development for, for maintaining maintaining the the ability ability of of agriculturalagricultural production production and and the the requirement requirement of of food food security security in in Taiwan. Taiwan.

Figure 2. Location of the Study Area in Taiwan. Figure 2. Location of the Study Area in Taiwan. Table 2. Statistics of Main Crop Types in the Study Area (Unit: ha).

Location CropTable 2. Statistics Area of Main Location Crop Types Crop in the Study Area Area Location (Unit: ha). Crop Area Location CropRice 29,888Area Location CropRice Ar 18,080ea Location RiceCrop 15,355Area Chiayi Yunlin SweetRice potato 29,888 3209 Rice Corn 18,080 4844 Tainan CornRice 541415,355 Potato 1671 Bamboo 1914 Sugarcane 1286 Yunlin Sweet potato 3209 Chiayi Corn 4844 Tainan Corn 5414 Potato 1671 Bamboo 1,914 Sugarcane 1,286 3. Methodology and Materials

Vulnerability assessment, which typically discusses the environmental impact of natural disasters, has been widely used to investigate questions on natural disasters and climate change. The generally accepted definitions of vulnerability are those adopted by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the IPCC [14,15]. The UNEP considers vulnerability to be the degree of loss caused Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 5 of 21 by potential damage, as well as a method for maintaining human welfare, when environmental, social, economic, and political systems are exposed to hazardous circumstances. The IPCC defines vulnerability as the degree of difficulty in maintaining stability within the system, when social and natural systems suffer climatic disasters. As a result of the different sensitivities of each system, the ability of each system to withstand climate change impact varies. The main difference in the UNEP and IPCC definitions is based on the various exposed objects: The UNEP emphasizes human welfare, whereas the IPCC emphasizes the impact of exposure to disasters on social and natural systems. As such, the concept of vulnerability combines the potential impact and adaptation as its two major dimensions. Potential impact is derived from sensitivity and exposure to the whole environment. Adaptation behavior mitigates climate change impact related to disasters, and improves active adaptability to the environment by adjusting sensitivity and exposure intensities. The aforementioned description indicates that agricultural vulnerability assessment must consider different aspects, different space scales, and different risk scenarios. In recent years, some considerable achievements have been noted in vulnerability assessment systems in the agricultural sector [7,8,10,11]. Gbetibouo and Ringler [10] proposed a vulnerability assessment framework and criteria for the agricultural sector. The researchers divided agricultural vulnerability into potential impact and adaptation ability, as well as applying the aspects of physical capital—such as social aspects, human resources, financial sectors—regarding adaptation, and exposure and sensitivity factors regarding potential impact. Studies have focused on the analysis of different types of systems, including biological, socioeconomic, and agricultural systems [8]. These systems are based on the criteria of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive criteria, as intended. Some of the aforementioned studies have focused on the application of system simulation methods, such as the groundwater loading effects of agricultural management systems. The authors investigated the effects of water and soil losses, water scarcity, and temperature changes on agricultural land. Moreover, the factors of vulnerability listed for climate change impact were mainly based on the characteristics of agricultural production; however, the suitability of agricultural land and the utilization of the aforementioned multiple functions were note considered. Agricultural land is one of the essential elements of agriculture. Emphasizing the multiple values of the nature of agricultural land (such as ecological diversity, educational value and location characteristics, etc.,) will help to enhance the possibility and application of policy inputs. The Taiwan government has attempted to view the versatile features of agricultural land in terms of the concept of overall planning, and developed relevant adaptation strategies to cope with climate change impact. This study attempted to use simulation data obtained from different climate scenarios and explore the distribution of vulnerability on agricultural land in different contexts. The following sections describe the analysis framework, vulnerability indicator system, and data collection in this study.

3.1. Analysis Framework This study followed the process of the simpliﬁed APFs, emphasizing the framework of vulnerability assessment, and then extended the applications for adaptation strategies. The simpliﬁed analysis framework is presented in Figure3. The framework comprises three phases. Phase 1 reveals the study issues and objectives: here, we focused on food security and agricultural land management. Moreover, considering the aspects of ecology, environment, and landscape, maintaining the multifunctionality of agricultural land is extremely helpful for enhancing agricultural production, and is also relevant to the goal of sustainable agricultural development. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 6 of 22

Phase 2 focuses on the mechanism for assessing vulnerability and integrates the current level of vulnerability and future climatic risks through combination rules. Current potential risks are engendered by the physical environment, agricultural characteristics, and socioeconomic conditions. Determining future climatic risks, such as climate predictions and rising sea levels, proposed by the Taiwan government are based on the official simulation results [6,16]. In response to the current level of vulnerability and future climatic risks, Phase 3 involves the identification of adaptation policy options, as well as the formulation of these alternatives into a cohesive integrated strategy. The strategies for climate change adaptation in Southern Taiwan were proposed by integrating local agricultural policies and recognizing policy preferences. Finally, all of the proposed adaptation strategies were appropriately applied to areas with different vulnerability Sustainabilitylevels. 2020, 12, 4637 6 of 21

Figure 3. Analysis Framework of this Study. Figure 3. Analysis Framework of this Study. Phase 2 focuses on the mechanism for assessing vulnerability and integrates the current level of3.2. vulnerability Vulnerability andIndicator future System climatic for Agricultural risks through Land combination rules. Current potential risks are engenderedThis study by theadapted physical the environment,definition of vulnerability agricultural characteristics,proposed by the and IPCC socioeconomic (2007) as its conditions.basis. This Determiningdefinition includes future exposure, climatic risks, sensitivity, such as and climate adaptation, predictions all of and which rising are sea based levels, on the proposed vulnerability by the Taiwanassessment government framework are based proposed on the by o ffi Rannowcial simulation et al. [17 results]. The [6 , main16]. components of the research frameworkIn response include to theinput current data, levelclassification, of vulnerability the creation and future of criteria, climatic construction risks, Phase of 3an involves assessment the identificationmatrix, and decisions of adaptation regarding policy the options, level of as vulnerability. well as the formulation The procedure of these was alternatives operated through into a cohesivevarious climate integrated-based strategy. scenarios The following strategies this for analysis climate changeprocess adaptation(Figure 4). in Southern Taiwan were proposedOverlapping by integrating and combination local agricultural by rules policies are the and two recognizing main approaches policy preferences. used for the Finally, entire allanalysis of the proposedprocess. Overlapping adaptation strategies aids in calculating were appropriately the combinations applied toof areasdifferent with scores different through vulnerability the indices levels. of each dimension, such as sensitivity. A combination of rules can be applied to various consequences 3.2. Vulnerability Indicator System for Agricultural Land of different aspects or scenarios; for instance, it can be recombined into a result regarding the potentialThis studyimpact adapted through the exposure definition and of sensitivity. vulnerability Finally, proposed the result by the of IPCC potential (2007) impact as its basis. combines This definitionwith adaptation includes by exposure, assessment sensitivity, matrix and, to adaptation, determine all the of which distribution are based of on agricultural the vulnerability land assessmentvulnerability framework. The vulnerab proposedility distribution by Rannow will et be al. used [17 ].as Thea reference main componentsfor constructing of the appropriate research frameworkadaptation strategies include input and action data, classification, plans. the creation of criteria, construction of an assessment matrix, and decisions regarding the level of vulnerability. The procedure was operated through various climate-based scenarios following this analysis process (Figure4). Overlapping and combination by rules are the two main approaches used for the entire analysis process. Overlapping aids in calculating the combinations of different scores through the indices of each dimension, such as sensitivity. A combination of rules can be applied to various consequences of different aspects or scenarios; for instance, it can be recombined into a result regarding the potential impact through exposure and sensitivity. Finally, the result of potential impact combines with adaptation by assessment matrix, to determine the distribution of agricultural land vulnerability. The vulnerability distribution will be used as a reference for constructing appropriate adaptation strategies and action plans. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 7 of 21 Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 7 of 22

FigureFigure 4.4. VulnerabilityVulnerability Assessment Assessment Structure Structure for Agricultural for Agricultural Land. (Modified Land. from (ModiﬁedRannow et al. from Rannow(2010)).et al. (2010)).

TheThe types types of vulnerability of vulnerability indices indic ines the in agricultural the agricultural sector sector are quite are diverse. quite diverse. This study This attempted study toattempted define the agriculturalto define the vulnerabilityagricultural vulnerability indicator system indicator (Table system3) from (Table the utilization 3) from the of multifunctionalutilization of farmland,multifunctional especially farmland, in agricultural especially production, in agricultural water production, resources, water limitation resources, of limitation natural environment, of natural andenvironment, farmers’ social-economic and farmers’ social condition,-economic etc. condition This system, etc. can This be system divided can into be threedivided main into aspects, three main which areaspects, further which downscaled are further to a downscaled group level to and a group finally level to an and item finally level. to Thean item criteria level. at The the criteria aspect levelat the are exposure,aspect level sensitivity, are exposure, and adaptation. sensitivity, Theand criteria adaptation. at the The group criteria level at arethe disastergroup level potential, are disaster climate prediction,potential, rising climate sea prediction, levels, soil, rising water, sea blocks, levels, sensitive soil, water,areas, household blocks, sensitive characteristics, areas, household agricultural organization,characteristics, and agricultural socio-economic organization, characteristics. and socio Finally,-economic thecriteria characteristics. at the item Finally, level the are crit determinederia at bythe the item crucial level attributes are determined of each by indicator the crucial group. attributes of each indicator group. For computing the strength of the vulnerability, the score must be given according to its For computing the strength of the vulnerability, the score must be given according to its properties. properties. Firstly, the farmland unit (see Figure 2) is used as an analysis unit, which integrated all Firstly, the farmland unit (see Figure2) is used as an analysis unit, which integrated all input data input data involved indices. However, each indicator has specific measurements, causing difficulties involved indices. However, each indicator has specific measurements, causing difficulties in integration in integration and computation. To resolve this problem, the sequential method is applied for and computation. To resolve this problem, the sequential method is applied for measuring the score by measuring the score by using a relative level for each indicator, denoting that the score of each item usingrepresents a relative the levelrelative for level each of indicator, vulnerability. denoting A higher that score the score denotes of each a higher item level represents of vulnerability. the relative levelMoreover, of vulnerability. to operate A higher the measurement score denotes method a higher consistently, level of vulnerability. this study Moreover, used the to group operateing the measurementclassification methodmethod consistently,“quantile” in thisESRI study ArcGIS used software the grouping to divide classification the value of each method item “quantile” into three in ESRIlevels ArcGIS, and softwaregive each to item divide a new the valuescore by of eachits sequence. item into For three instance, levels, the and score give eachof 1 represents item a new the score bylowest its sequence. level of For vulnerability, instance, the whereas score of a score 1 represents of 3 represents the lowest the level highest of vulnerability, level. Regarding whereas the a scorealternative of 3 represents indicator, the if highestit stands level. in a dangerous Regarding situation, the alternative the score indicator, is 3; the if score it stands is 1 if in it a does dangerous not situation,stand in thea dangerous score is 3; situation. the score is 1 if it does not stand in a dangerous situation. ToT explicitlyo explicit describely describe the calculationthe calculation process, process it explains, it explains the combination the combina approachtion approach and composed and levelscomposed between levels items, between groups, items, and groups, aspects. and The aspects. weighting The weighting is equal. is Theequal. weighting The weighting among among criteria incriteria the paper in the is di paperfferent is from different other from processes other process becausees thebecause weighting the weighting value could value not could be significant, not be duesignificant to the many, due criteria to the tomany overlay. criteria This to article overlay. applied This article the rule-based applied the approach rule-based suggested approach by an expertsuggested meeting by foran expert computing meeting vulnerability. for computing Based vulnerability. on this, the levelBased composition on this, the approachlevel composit is usedion for computingapproach the is used score for of computingitems and group. the score For of instance, items and the group level. groupFor instance, is composed the level of a group level item, is suchcomposed as “Farmer of a householdlevel item, such characteristics” as “Farmer grouphousehold contains characteristics “Number” ofgroup villager contains households “Number/village of villager households/village area,” “Age of person who commands cultivation”, “Educational area,” “Age of person who commands cultivation”, “Educational degree”, and “Average agricultural degree”, and “Average agricultural income of villager household”. The initial score of the group income of villager household”. The initial score of the group “Farmer household characteristics” is the Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 8 of 21 summary of scores from the four factors. Each farmland unit has its own summary score of the group. After reranking by the summary score and quantile analysis, the final score of the group “Farmer household characteristics’ has been given by 1, 2, 3. The level composition approach is applied in the score of sensitivity aspect, soil group, water group, blocks group, sensitive areas group, adaptation aspect, FHH group, AO group, and SE group. The combination approach involved two rule types of assessment matrix (Figure2). Assessment matrix 1 is to emphasize for identity the “real’ occurrence, high vulnerability area. The combination rule is applied with climate risk simulation (CRS) between CP and RSL, the score of exposure aspect between CRS and CP, and the potential impact between exposure and sensitivity. Assessment matrix 2 is to emphasize the importance of adaptation, and it is used for the score of vulnerability, combined with potential impact and adaption. Finally, this article compares the vulnerability results with the types of agricultural land in law, to examine the relevant applicability and efficiency of different policies.

Table 3. Vulnerability Indicator System for Agricultural Land Use.

Aspect Group * Item * References Geographic Information Platform Disaster potential Disaster potential distribution for National Spatial Planning of (DP) CPAMI Expos-ure Taiwan Climate Change Projection Climate prediction (E) Rice impact analysis and Information Platform of (CP) NCDR Rising sea levels Risk of rising sea levels Chen et al. (2001); EPA (RSL) Taiwan Agricultural Land Soil Farmland production ability (FPA) Information Service (TALIS) of (SO) Council of Agriculture (COA) Water Distance to irrigation channels (DIC) TALIS Sensiti-vity (WA) Ratio of irrigation areas (RIA) (S) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery, and Blocks Farmland block areas (FBA) Animal Husbandry Census (BL) Scales of cultivated land (SCL) Geographic Information Platform Sensitive areas Ecological conservation areas (ECA) for National Land Planning in (SA) CPAMI Number of villager households/village area (NHH) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery, and Farmer household Age of person who commands Animal Husbandry Census characteristics cultivation (APC) (FHH) Educational degree (ED) Average agricultural income of villager Adapt-ation household (AAI) (A) Membership/number of people involved in agriculture (MPIA) Agricultural organization Counts of production to sale unit (CPS) (AO) Annual statistics of farmers’ Number of people participating in association practice courses/number of people involved in agriculture (NPP) Expenditure-to-revenue ratio of farmers’ association (ERA) Rural regeneration community (RRC) Socio-economic Nurture ratio (NR) Social Economic Database of the characteristics National Geographic Information Aging index (AI) (SE) System * Computing consequences and diagrams of all indicator groups and items are presented in AppendixA.

3.2.1. Exposure Criteria In general, changes in climatic conditions and the frequency of occurrence for extreme climatic events have been used as exposure factors [7,8,10,11]. However, collecting relevant information including both the specified scale and details of climate impact, particularly at the local level, is Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 9 of 21 extremely difficult. Therefore, here, we mainly used the official report of farmland management issued by the agricultural association of the Taiwan government [6]. In the report, the exposure factors have been divided into three patterns: distribution of the current disaster potential, climate prediction, and rising sea levels. Pattern 1, distribution of current disaster potential, describes real danger to territory, and evaluates the consequences of disaster potential distribution suggested by the Taiwan government. The consequences are concerned with areas located at sites with significant risks, such as specified water and soil conservation areas, security forest areas, river covered regions, coastal erosive areas, fault areas, and mudflow sensitivity areas. The consequences explain the various precarious positions and potential calamities of the present situation in Taiwan. As a result of the uncertainty of climate change, the possible risks of the present situation in these areas will continue to increase in number. Pattern 2, climate prediction, focuses on the impact of growth cycles for crops and paddy rice by predicting climate scenarios A2, B1, and A1B in the IPCC AR4. The prediction data has been obtained from the project achievement of the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP), with a data resolution of approximately 5 5 km, including two prediction periods × (2020–2039 and 2080–2099). By combining various climatic contexts, the output for the possible impact of growth cycle extension for paddy rice was identified here. Pattern 3, rising sea levels, examines the extension of impact under different scenarios, as well as the extension of impact as affected by several variables, including the degree of sea-level rise, the average elevation of the sea, the amplitude of the astronomical tide, and storm surge. The results have also been published in another technical document [16], with various scenarios of rising sea levels (increases of 2, 4, and 6 m). In this study, the scenario of a 2 m increase in sea level was applied for computing the visual extension of agricultural land. To explore the effects of these patterns, this study adapted ranking rules to reclassify the impact levels into three equal parts. According to the reclassification, the degree of impact for each unit was defined as 1 for weak, 2 for medium, and 3 for strong. The reclassification was useful for distinguishing effects based on various factors in each analysis unit. These score modes and the classification method were applied throughout the analysis procedure in this study.

3.2.2. Sensitivity Criteria The sensitivity aspect explores the sensitivity level of productivity for agricultural land, and includes four types of indicator groups: soil, water, blocks, and sensitive areas, as well as nine subcategories. Soil is the major focus for investigating the production ability of the agricultural land; however, different types of crops require different cultivation environments in terms of factors, such as climatic conditions and internal soil attributes. In this study, the major crop in Southern Taiwan, paddy rice, was used as the standard to represent the effects of the soil indicator, thereby avoiding excessive complexity. Water resource management is also a crucial study area. Here, the correlation between farming and irrigation was considered in the water group. The blocks group mainly identified the properties and scales of the spatial unit of each agricultural land area. The sensitive area group depended on the geographical and environmental conditions based on the boundaries of the ecological conservation areas. By computing the mean of these criteria using GIS tools, the level of farmland vulnerability based on the sensitivity aspect could be measured.

3.2.3. Adaptation Criteria The structure of the adaptation aspect was divided into three indicator groups: household characteristics of farmers, agricultural organizations, and socioeconomic characteristics. These three groups comprised the fragile properties of villager households, socioeconomic interactions between households, and social burdens in rural areas. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 10 of 21

3.3. Data Source Table3 lists the types of items with the various scales, as well as references for the vulnerability indicator system used in this study. Regarding the exposure aspect, there are 3 items based on the open oﬃcial data from central government organizations, such as National Spatial Planning, the Construction and Planning Agency, the Ministry of the Interior (CPAMI), the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR), and the Environmental Protection Administration Executive Yun (EPA). The distribution of potential disaster areas is obtained from the second Taiwan National Land Use Survey. Rice impact analysis was applied the prediction of climatic condition from TCCIP, produced by NCDR. The risk of rising sea levels is based on the simulation results from the research project of EPA. The data for the sensitivity aspect was mostly based on the Taiwan Agricultural Land Information System, established by the Council of Agriculture (COA), Taiwan. Regarding the adaptation aspect, the data were obtained mainly from oﬃcial statistics, such as the annual report of county statistics and the agricultural census.

4. Results: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Based on our analysis framework, assessment procedures were progressively oriented with the aspects of exposure, sensitivity, potential impact, adaptation, and ﬁnal evaluation of the vulnerability of agricultural land. The results of each indicator are described as follows.

4.1. Exposure The spatial distribution of the exposure indicator is shown in Figure5 and Table4. According to the results, medium exposure levels are mostly located in the central plain toward the western area of Taiwan, occupying more than 91% of the total agricultural land in Southern Taiwan. Areas of high exposure (only approximately 0.58% of the total area of the study area) are scattered among the hills andSustainability mountain 2020 regions, 12, 4637 located on the border between Yunlin and Chiayi, and also in southeast Tainan.11 of 22

FigureFigure 5.5. SpatialSpatial DistributionDistribution ofof thethe ExposureExposure Indicator.Indicator.

Table 4. Statistics of the Vulnerability Level Regarding the Exposure Aspect (Unit: ha).

Vulnerability Levels for Exposure Low Medium High Yunlin 21 97,430 313 Percentage of the total area (0.01%) (31.53%) (0.10%) Chiayi 18,097 65,584 615 Percentage of total area (5.86%) (21.23%) (0.20%) Tainan 6991 119,066 861 Percentage of the total area (2.26%) (38.54%) (0.28%) Southern Taiwan 25,109 282,081 1789 Percentage of the total area (8.13%) (91.29%) (0.58%)

4.2. Sensitivity Our results indicate that low sensitivity areas, most of which are located in the central plain of Yunlin and Chiayi, as well as in parts of northern Tainan, account for 65% of the total agricultural land (Figure 6; Table 5). Areas of high sensitivity (approximately 8%) are located near the southwest coast and eastern parts of the slope areas. Areas with medium sensitivity are scattered among the eastern hills and coastal areas in the western region. Areas of medium sensitivity account for approximately 27% of the total agricultural land. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 11 of 21

Table 4. Statistics of the Vulnerability Level Regarding the Exposure Aspect (Unit: ha).

4.2. Sensitivity Our results indicate that low sensitivity areas, most of which are located in the central plain of Yunlin and Chiayi, as well as in parts of northern Tainan, account for 65% of the total agricultural land (Figure6; Table5). Areas of high sensitivity (approximately 8%) are located near the southwest coast and eastern parts of the slope areas. Areas with medium sensitivity are scattered among the eastern hills and coastal areas in the western region. Areas of medium sensitivity account for approximately 27%Sustainability of the 2020 total, 12 agricultural, 4637 land. 12 of 22

Figure 6. Spatial Distribution of the SensitivitySensitivity Indicator.Indicator.

Table 5. Statistics of the Vulnerability Level regarding the Sensitivity Aspect (Unit: ha). Table 5. Statistics of the Vulnerability Level regarding the Sensitivity Aspect (Unit: ha). Vulnerability Levels for Sensitivity Low Medium High Vulnerability Levels for Sensitivity Low Medium High Yunlin Yunlin81,853 81,853 13,589 13,589 2322 2322 Percentage of total area (26.49%) (4.40%) (0.75%) Percentage of total area (26.49%) (4.40%) (0.75%) Chiayi 57,398 21,871 5027 ChiayiPercentage of total area57,398 (18.58%) 21,871 (7.08%) (1.63%) 5027 Percentage of totalTainan area (18.58%) 62,101 (7.08%) 46,946 17,871 (1.63%) TainanPercentage of total area62,101 (20.10%) (15.19%)46,946 (5.78%) 17,871 Percentage ofSouthern total area Taiwan (20.10%) 201,353 (15.19%) 82,407 25,221 (5.78%) SouthernPercentage Taiwan of total area201,353 (65.17%) (26.67%)82,407 (8.16%) 25,221 Percentage of total area (65.17%) (26.67%) (8.16%)

4.3. Potential Impact Potential impact involves both the exposure and sensitivity aspects. Assessment matrix (AM)-I was used to integrate the two aspects (Table 6). AM-I emphasizes the effects of high exposure risk, and attempts to highlight low sensitivity vulnerability to recognize kernel production sites. By resembling the results of exposure vulnerability and sensitivity vulnerability, AM-I illustrates the distribution of agricultural land vulnerability regarding the potential impact aspect (Figure 7). Areas exhibiting high vulnerability to potential impact are mainly located in coastal areas, such as Yunlin, Tainan, and parts of areas near the hills in southeast Tainan. The results of overall spatial distribution were similar to the results of sensitivity vulnerability; however, the value of the central plains region shifted from medium to low vulnerability. The key areas with the low vulnerability of potential impact are located in eastern Chiayi, accounting for 2.04% of the entire agricultural land area (Table 7).

Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 12 of 21

4.3. Potential Impact Potential impact involves both the exposure and sensitivity aspects. Assessment matrix (AM)-I was used to integrate the two aspects (Table6). AM-I emphasizes the e ﬀects of high exposure risk, and attempts to highlight low sensitivity vulnerability to recognize kernel production sites. By resembling the results of exposure vulnerability and sensitivity vulnerability, AM-I illustrates the distribution of agricultural land vulnerability regarding the potential impact aspect (Figure7). Areas exhibiting high vulnerability to potential impact are mainly located in coastal areas, such as Yunlin, Tainan, and parts of areas near the hills in southeast Tainan. The results of overall spatial distribution were similar to the results of sensitivity vulnerability; however, the value of the central plains region shifted from medium to low vulnerability. The key areas with the low vulnerability of potential impact are located in eastern Chiayi, accounting for 2.04% of the entire agricultural land area (Table7).

Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 13 of 22 Table 6. Assessment matrix (AM)-I for Exposure and Sensitivity. Table 6. Assessment matrix (AM)-I for Exposure and Sensitivity. Exposure Exposure 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 Sensitivity Sensitivity 22 2 22 23 3 33 2 23 33 3

FigureFigure 7. 7.Spatial Spatial Distribution Distribution of the Potential Potential Impact Impact Indicator Indicator..

TableTable 7. Statistics 7. Statistics of of the the Vulnerability Vulnerability LevelLevel regarding Pote Potentialntial Impact Impact (Unit (Unit:: ha). ha).

VulnerabilityVulnerability Levels Levels for for the the Potential Potential Impact Low Medium High Low Medium High ImpactYunlin 0 95,302 2462 PercentageYunlin of the total area0 (0.00%)95,302 (30.84%) (0.80%)2462 Percentage of theChiayi total area (0.00%) 6289(30.84%) 73,465 (0.80%) 4542 PercentageChiayi of the total area6289 (2.04%)73,465 (23.78%) (1.47%)4542 Percentage of theTainan total area (2.04%) 1928(23.78%) 107,276 17,714(1.47%) PercentageTainan of total area1928 (0.62%)107,276 (34.72%) (5.73%)17,714 PercentageSouthern of total Taiwanarea (0.62%) 8217(34.72%) 276,044 24,719(5.73%) SouthernPercentage Taiwan of the total area8217 (2.66%)276,044 (89.34%) (8.00%)24,719 Percentage of the total area (2.66%) (89.34%) (8.00%)

4.4. Adaptation The results for adaptation demonstrate that regions with the high vulnerability of household characteristics of farmers are in coastal areas, and that the scale of the locations gradually decreases toward the eastern slope, indicating that the households of individual farmers residing in the plain and slope areas have stronger abilities to cope with climate change impact caused by certain characteristics. The agricultural organizations presented the overall development of local farming methods, according to their learning mechanisms for contacting their organizations. The results indicated that areas with lowSustainability vulnerability 2020, 12, are4637 closer to the peri-urban areas. The socioeconomic characteristics of the analysis14 of 22 demonstrated that the dependency ratio is similar to the spatial structure of the aging index. The highstructure vulnerability of the aging locations index. areThe centralized high vulnerability in boundaries locations between are centralized counties in and boundaries aggregated between in the southeasterncounties and ruralaggregated area. in the southeastern rural area. By integratingintegrating thethe criteriacriteria forfor thethe adaptationadaptation aspect, aspect, the the spatial spatial structure structure is is presented presented in in Figure Figure8. The8. The high high adaptation adaptation vulnerability vulnerability areas areas are are mainly mainly located located in in coastalcoastal areasareas andand on county borders. These regions regions cover cover 17 17 townships townships in in Tainan, Tainan, sevenseven inin Yunlin, Yunlin, and and fivefive inin Chiayi. Chiayi. No significant significant didifferencesfferences were were detected detected between between the the percentages percentages for foreach each level level (Table (Table 8); notably,8); notably, the sites the in sites central in centraland eastern and eastern areas of areas Yunlin of Yunlin and Chiayi and Chiayi include include complete complete blocks blocks,, with with relatively relatively low low levels levels of ofadaptation adaptation vulnerability, vulnerability, whereas whereas the the edge edge townships townships of of Tainan Tainan consistently demonstrate high adaptation vulnerability.

Figure 8. Spatial Distribution of the Adaptation Indicator.Indicator.

Table 8. Statistics of the Vulnerability Level for the Adaptation Aspect (Unit: ha). Table 8. Statistics of the Vulnerability Level for the Adaptation Aspect (Unit: ha).

VulnerabilityVulnerability Levels for Levels Adaptation for Adaptation Low LowMedium Medium HighHigh Yunlin Yunlin27,221 27,22138,230 38,230 32,31232,312 Percentage of the total area (8.81%) (12.37%) (10.46%) Percentage of the total area (8.81%) (12.37%) (10.46%) Chiayi 36,198 27,192 20,906 PercentageChiayi of the total area36,198 (11.72%)27,192 (8.80%) (6.77%)20,906 Percentage of the totalTainan area (11.72%) 36,788(8.80%) 43,180 46,950(6.77%) TainanPercentage of total area36,788 (11.91%)43,180 (13.98%) (15.20%)46,950 Percentage ofSouthern total area Taiwan (11.91%) 100,208(13.98%) 108,603 100,169(15.20%) SouthernPercentage Taiwan of the total area100,208 (32.43%)108,603 (35.15%) (32.42%)100,169 Percentage of the total area (32.43%) (35.15%) (32.42%)

4.5. Analysis of Vulnerability Assessment for Farmland AM-II was used for integrating the different criteria (Table 9). AM-II made the assumption that the potential impact was of equal importance to the adaptation aspect. According to the rule of AM- II, we further combined the results of potential impact and outcome-oriented by the adaptation aspect, by organizing the results shown in Figure 9. From the simulation results, areas with high levels of vulnerability occupy approximately 106,615 ha, accounting for 34.51% of the total agricultural land area. The locations are mostly located in western coastal areas, particularly in the two townships of Yunlin and seven of Chiayi, as well as some scattered areas in the central plain area. Additionally, areas with low levels of vulnerability occupy approximately 151,099 ha, of which Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 14 of 21

4.5. Analysis of Vulnerability Assessment for Farmland AM-II was used for integrating the diﬀerent criteria (Table9). AM-II made the assumption that the potential impact was of equal importance to the adaptation aspect. According to the rule of AM-II, we further combined the results of potential impact and outcome-oriented by the adaptation aspect, by organizing the results shown in Figure9. From the simulation results, areas with high levels of vulnerability occupy approximately 106,615 ha, accounting for 34.51% of the total agricultural land area. The locations are mostly located in western coastal areas, particularly in the two townships of Yunlin andSustainability seven of2020 Chiayi,, 12, 4637 as well as some scattered areas in the central plain area. Additionally, areas15 withof 22 low levels of vulnerability occupy approximately 151,099 ha, of which 50,827ha are located in Tainan (highest50,827ha frequency are located of areas in Tainan with low (highest vulnerability frequency among of areas all the with territories; low vulnerability Table 10). In among general, all the the locationterritories; is closer Table to 10). the In central general, plains the than location to the is eastern closer area.to the The central results plains indicate than that to the the eastern central plainarea. regionThe res toults the indicate east has that a low the level central of vulnerability,plain region to implying the east anhas advantage a low level for of agricultural vulnerability, production, implying whereasan advantage the other for regionsagricultural comprise production, varied vulnerability whereas the levels.other regions Concerning comprise the climate varied change vulnerability impact, thelevels. western Concerning coastal zonethe climate is a critical change area. impact, As a result the western of the distribution coastal zone of is the a critical results, area. the demand As a result for agriculturalof the distribution adaptation of the strategies results, the could demand play for a crucial agricultural and urgent adaptation role in strategies Southern could Taiwan. play a crucial and urgent role in Southern Taiwan. Table 9. AM-II for Potential Impact and Adaptation. Table 9. AM-II for Potential Impact and Adaptation. Potential Impact Potential Impact 1 2 3 1 2 3 11 1 11 12 2 Adaptation Adaptation 22 1 12 23 3 33 2 23 33 3

Figure 9. Spatial Distribution of Vulnerability.Vulnerability.

Table 10. Statistics of the Different Levels of Vulnerability (Unit: ha).

Levels of Vulnerability Low Medium High Yunlin 26,666 37,612 33,485 Percentage of the total area (8.63%) (12.17%) (10.84%) Chiayi 36,534 25,460 22,302 Percentage of the total area (11.82%) (8.24%) (7.22%) Tainan 33,679 42,412 50,827 Percentage of the total area (10.90%) (13.73%) (16.45%) Southern Taiwan 96,880 105,485 106,615 Percentage of total area (31.35%) (34.14%) (34.51%)

4.6. Adaptive Strategies in Response to Climate Change The final vulnerability results identify the different characteristics of agricultural land in Southern Taiwan. This study attempted to establish some adaptive strategies for agricultural land for Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 15 of 21

Table 10. Statistics of the Diﬀerent Levels of Vulnerability (Unit: ha).

4.6. Adaptive Strategies in Response to Climate Change The final vulnerability results identify the different characteristics of agricultural land in Southern Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 16 of 22 Taiwan. This study attempted to establish some adaptive strategies for agricultural land for dealing withdealing climate with change climate by change considering by considering both the vulnerability both the vulnerability of agricultural of agricultural land and local land agricultural and local policiesagricultural as types policies of agriculturalas types of agricultural land in law. land Each in law local. Each agricultural local agricultural policy and policy its relatedand its related action wasaction promoted was promoted in the specified in the location.specified Therefore, location. Therefore, the pattern the of adaptive pattern of strategies adaptive for strategies agricultural for landagricultural was recognized land was through recognized the location-based through the relationship location-based between relationship vulnerability between levels vulnerability and local agriculturallevels and local policies, agricultural such as farmlandpolicies, such types as in farmland law. For types the production in law. For ability the production of agricultural ability land, of vulnerability,agricultural land, and vulnerability, properties of and local properties agricultural of local policies, agricultural three types policies, of adaptive three types strategies of adaptive were proposed.strategies were The variousproposed. types The of various spatial types locations of spatial and patternlocations attributes and pattern are attributes presented are in Figurepresented 10, Tablesin Figure 11 and10, T12able. Thes 11 identifications and 12. The identifications of these types of are these described types are below. described below.

Figure 10. Spatial Distributions of the Adaptive Patterns of Agricultural Land. Figure 10. Spatial Distributions of the Adaptive Patterns of Agricultural Land.

Table 11. Proposed Adaptive Strategies for the Different Levels of Vulnerability.

Long-Term Adaptive Short-Term Adaptive Type Description Policies Actions  To arrange the  To implement large cultivation period for Areas mainly have basin management paddy rice low levels of plans  To maintain the vulnerability.  To strengthen the agricultural production Type I: Objectives: to efficiency of water environment Enhancement maintain current resources  To promote of agricultural production  To develop and pollution prevention production conditions and to improve farming actions strengthen technology  To improve production ability  To arrange irrigation facilities and efficiency. workshops for  To identify the cultivation technology agricultural management zone Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 16 of 22

agricultural policies as types of agricultural land in law. Each local agricultural policy and its related action was promoted in the specified location. Therefore, the pattern of adaptive strategies for agricultural land was recognized through the location-based relationship between vulnerability levels and local agricultural policies, such as farmland types in law. For the production ability of agricultural land, vulnerability, and properties of local agricultural policies, three types of adaptive strategies were proposed. The various types of spatial locations and pattern attributes are presented in Figure 10, Tables 11 and 12. The identifications of these types are described below.

Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 16 of 21 Figure 10. Spatial Distributions of the Adaptive Patterns of Agricultural Land.

Table 11. Proposed Adaptive Strategies for the Different Levels of Vulnerability. Table 11. Proposed Adaptive Strategies for the Different Levels of Vulnerability. Long-Term Adaptive Short-Term Adaptive Type Description Type DescriptionPolicies Long-Term Adaptive PoliciesActions Short-Term Adaptive Actions  To arrange the To arrange the cultivation period for paddy rice  ToTo implement large large basin managementcultivation period plans for Areas mainly have low levels of vulnerability. To maintain the agricultural production environment To strengthen the efficiency of water resources Type I: Enhancement of agricultural Objectives: to maintainAreas current mainly production have basin management paddy rice To promote pollution prevention actions To develop and improve farming technology production conditions and to strengthenlow levels production of plans  To maintain the To improve irrigation facilities ability and efficiency. To arrange workshops for cultivation technology vulnerability.  To strengthen the agricultural production To identify the agricultural management zone Type I: Objectives: to efficiency of water environment AreasEnhancement mainly have mediummaintain and high current levels of resources  To promote vulnerabilityof agricultural and more favorableproduction production  ToTo develop develop water-saving and technologypollution prevention To arrange the cultivation period for paddy rice Type II: Maintenance of agricultural conditions,production but also faceconditions the impact ofand climate to improveTo push farming forward large basin managementactions plans To improve irrigation facilities production change. Objective: To maintain the To strengthen the efficiency of water resource usage To cultivate other heat-resistant crops fundamental productionstrengthen function by technology To improve considering foodproduction security. ability  To arrange irrigation facilities  Areas mainly have mediumand and efficiency. high levels of workshops for To identify the vulnerability and are mainly located in the cultivationTo continually technology monitor agriculturalagricultural land To adjust farming types coastal zones in the western areas and the hills To complete ecological systemmanagement planning zone and To maintain farmland rest and increase afforestation Type III: Conservation of agricultural in the southeastern areas. The production management of agricultural land To promote agricultural recreation environment condition is relatively poor and easily affected To implement agricultural land rest and the To protect rural heritage sites by the climatic impact. Objective: mainly, to compensation mechanism conserve the agricultural environment and its multifunctionality. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 17 of 21

Table 12. Areas of Diﬀerent Types with their Adaptive Strategies (Unit: ha).

Suggested Adaptive Strategy Types Type I Type II Type III Yunlin 26,666 59,493 11,604 Percentage of the total area (8.63%) (19.25%) (3.76%) Chiayi 36,534 38,645 9117 Percentage of the total area (11.82%) (12.51%) (2.95%) Tainan 33,679 57,975 35,264 Percentage of the total area (10.90%) (18.76%) (11.41%) Southern Taiwan 96,880 156,114 55,986 Percentage of the total area (31.35%) (50.53%) (18.12%)

4.6.1. Type I: Enhancement of Agricultural Production Type I farmland is mainly located in areas with low levels of vulnerability. As a result, it has only a slight impact, so climate change factors can be somewhat entirely disregarded in these areas. Excessively strict agricultural policies may produce interference for agriculture development. Thus, the concept of Type I farmland is to maintain the current production conditions and strengthen production ability and eﬃciency for farmland. This adaptive program is named the “Enhancement of agricultural production.” The overall objectives of the program are to maintain the original fertility of the farmland and strengthen its production function. To achieve these objectives, key adaptive strategies and actions were selected from all local agricultural policies. In short term, these areas focus on immediate actions, such as rearranging the rice cultivation period, maintaining the agricultural production environment, promoting pollution prevention actions, promoting irrigation facilities, and setting agricultural management zones. In the long term, this program is concerned with the promotion and innovation of environmental techniques. These adaptive strategies have been adopted to push forward large basin management plans, strengthen the eﬃciency of water resource allocation, develop farming techniques, and present cultivation techniques workshops. The results indicate that Type I locations are commonly located in the central-to-east regions of Yunlin and Chiayi and the southern-to-east hill band of Tainan. Among these locations, the most complete blocks of farmland with the biggest areas are those in Chiayi (e.g., the Meishan, Zhuqi, and Zhongpu townships).

4.6.2. Type II: Maintenance of Agricultural Production Type II farmland is mainly located in areas with medium and high levels of vulnerability. Considering food security, these farmlands should maintain their production functions. They encounter more intensive impact than do Type I farmland areas, so Type II farmland areas require the construction of an appropriately adaptive strategy to control their production abilities and quality in areas of qualiﬁed farmland and general farmland. The adaptive program is named the “Maintenance of agricultural production.” The key objectives are to promote adaptive capacity and safeguard land fertility. In these areas, short-term actions regarding the adjustment of crop production processes and techniques are emphasized. These actions include arranging the rice cultivation period, promoting irrigation facilities, and choosing heat-resistant crops. Long-term goals are concerned with the use of water resources. The relative adaptive strategies are to develop water-saving farming techniques, push forward large basin management plans, and strengthen the eﬃciency of water resource allocation. This pattern has high connectivity, with an entire ratio of over 50% of farmland areas. These locations are mainly distributed on the central plains toward the west. This phenomenon is quite evident, particularly in areas of Chiayi and Tainan, such as the Lucao township, Houbi district, and Dongshan district. Type II farmland almost covers Yunlin in its entirety, accounting for 59,493 ha. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 18 of 21

4.6.3. Type III: Conservation of Agricultural Environment Type III farmland is mainly located in areas with medium and high levels of vulnerability. Type III farmland terrains can withstand quite an intense climate change impact. As a result of the relative weaknesses in the production condition, the cost of maintaining production function in these areas is relatively high. The adaptive program named the “Conservation of the agricultural environment” is concerned with the equilibrium of the multiple functions of farmland beyond production ability. The objective of the program is to promote the adaptive capacity to conserve the multifunctional nature of the agricultural environment. The conservation of the multi-functionality of the agricultural environment provides the agricultural environment with nonproduction functions for water resource conservation, climate regulation, habitat conservation, and landscape management. In these areas, short-term actions involve the appropriate use of local assets, such as adjustment of farming types, farmland rest and aﬀorestation, promotion of leisure agriculture, and protection of rural heritage. The long-term goal is concerned with the overall planning of land use. The relative adaptive strategies are continual farmland monitoring, farmland ecological system planning and management, and the design of farmland rest and compensation mechanisms. As mentioned, Type III farmland areas are mainly located in western coastal and southeastern areas; however, Type III farmland areas are scattered around the entire study area. Most of these areas are surrounded by Type II areas, with those apparent being located in the Kuohu township in Yunlin and Jiangjun and Qigu districts in Tainan. In terms of area, the highest percentage share is Tainan City with 11.41%; this area is also the largest, accounting for 35,264 ha.

5. Discussion and Conclusions From the perspective of the multifunctional nature of agricultural land, this study attempted to examine the characteristics of agriculture land by vulnerability assessment. The results of the vulnerability assessment have been used to explore the appropriate and efficient adaptive policies in Southern Taiwan. The contributions of this study are described as follows. In terms of the vulnerability assessment framework, this study involved many approaches to moderate data and integrate computation results. For instance, the assessment matrices were employed to establish rules for combining consequences from different sectors. These procedures were limited by the data format, uncertainties in the relationships between criteria, and a lack of information; however, despite these limitations, through the conceptual integration mechanism, the matrices could still effectively simulate the relative locations of vulnerable agricultural land, and subsequently develop follow-up strategies. According to the results of the vulnerability assessment of agricultural land, the entire study region can be divided into three patterns: Pattern 1, located in the western coastal zone, filled with various attributes of high vulnerability; Pattern 2, distributed on the central plain region in the east, particularly in Yunlin and Chiayi, with most of these regions having complete blocks of agricultural land with low levels of vulnerability; and Pattern 3, located in the central plain region to the west, a region in which areas with various vulnerability levels are scattered throughout. This distribution is affected by the results of the adaptation aspect. Thus, the spatial structure of vulnerability in the agricultural land in Southern Taiwan ranges from the southwest coast with high vulnerability, to the northeast area with low vulnerability. This study constructed adaptive strategies for agricultural land through a linkage between agricultural land vulnerability and agricultural production ability. By producing a matrix for agricultural land, three types of adaptive strategies were proposed. The objectives of Type I farmland are to maintain the original land fertility and strengthen its production function; this farmland is distributed throughout the northeast plain region. The key objectives of Type II farmland are to promote adaptive capacity and safeguard land fertility; this farmland is distributed throughout the central plain region in the west, with various levels of agricultural land vulnerability. The objective of Type III farmland is to promote the adaptive capacity to conserve the multifunction nature of the Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 19 of 21 agricultural environment, emphasizing the conservation of the entire environment; the major location of this farmland is the southwestern coastal area. Finally, agricultural land is one of the essential elements of agriculture. Emphasizing the multiple values of the nature of agricultural land will help to enhance the possibility and application of policy inputs. The main purpose of the application of vulnerability assessment is not to explicitly describe the status of agricultural land to climate change, but to help local government and farmers to identify the critical area and to discussing the appropriated adaptive policies and agriculture future in the APFs process. The consequence of vulnerability is a relative score, and it simplifies the complex values for local people. Local people can feel a real difference between individuals and neighbors. That creates the possibility to connect local government and local farmer, and to generate consequences. In addition, by the characteristics of agriculture land location, adaptive policies would have new opportunities to integrate, to efficiently benefit, and to create a new development direction.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, S.-L.C. and C.-J.L.; methodology, K.-C.H. and S.-L.C.; software, K.-C.H.; validation, S.-L.C. and K.-C.H.; data curation, K.-C.H. and C.-H.T.; writing—original draft preparation, K.-C.H.; writing—review and editing, S.-L.C.; visualization, K.-C.H.; supervision, S.-L.C.; project administration, S.-L.C. and C.-J.L. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Funding: This research was funded by the Council of Agriculture, Taiwan (R.O.C) under grant number 101-AgriTech-14-1-1-Plan-Q2. The APC was funded by the Council of Agriculture, Taiwan (R.O.C) under grant number 109-AgriMana-1.3-Plan-02.

Acknowledgments:SustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 2020, 122020, 4637,This 122020 , 4637, 12 paper , 4637 is a partial result of the research project 101-AgriTech-14-1-1-Plan-20 of 2022 of 2022 of Q2. 22 Financial supportSustainabilitySustainability for this 2020 research, 202012, 4637, 12, 4637 was granted by the Council of Agriculture, Taiwan (Republic of China),20 of 2022 of which 22 is gratefully Acknowledgments:Acknowledgments:Acknowledgments: This paperThis paperThis is a partialpaper is a partial is result a partial result of the result of research the of research the project research project 101 project-AgriTech 101-AgriTech 101--14AgriTech-1--114-Plan-1--114-Plan Q2.-1-1 -FinancialPlan Q2. -Financial Q2. Financial acknowledgedSustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 2020 by, 202012 the, 4637, 122020 authors., 4637, 12 , 4637 20 of 2022 of 2022 of 22 supportAcknowledgments:supportAcknowledgments: forsupport this for research this for This research this Thispaper was research paper granted wasis a partial granted wasis a by partial granted result the by Council result theof by the Council theof research ofthe Council Agriculture, research of project Agriculture, of project Agriculture, 101 Taiwan-AgriTech 101 Taiwan -AgriTech(Republic Taiwan -14(Republic-1- 141(Republic of-Plan- 1 China),- 1 of--Plan Q2. China), of -Financial which Q2. China), Financial which is which is is Conﬂictsgratefullysupportgratefullysupport of for gratefullyac Interest: knowledged this for ac researchknowledged this ac researchknowledgedThe by was authorsthe by wasgrantedauthors. the by granted authors. declarethe by authors. the by Councilno the conﬂict Council of Agriculture, of Agriculture, interest. Taiwan Taiwan (Republic (Republic of China), of China), which which is is Acknowledgments:Acknowledgments:Acknowledgments: This Thispaper paperThis is a partialpaper is a partial is result a partial result of the result of research the of research the project research project 101 project-AgriTech 101-AgriTech 101-14AgriTech-1-141-Plan-1--114--Plan -Q2.1-1 -Financial PlanQ2. Financial- Q2. Financial gratefullygratefully acknowledged acknowledged by the by authors. the authors. ConflictssupportConflictssupport forofConflictssupport Interest: this for of researchInterest: this forof The researchInterest: this authors wasThe research authors wasgrantedThe declare authors granted was declare by grantedno the declareconflict by no Council the conflict by no Councilof the conflictinterest. of Councilof Agriculture, interest. of of Agriculture, interest. of Agriculture, Taiwan Taiwan (Republic Taiwan (Republic (Republic of China), of China), of which China), which is which is is AppendixConflictsgratefullyConflictsgratefully ofgratefully Aac knowledgedInterest: ofac knowledgedInterest: ac Theknowledged by authorsThe the byauthors authors. the declare by authors. thedeclare noauthors. conflict no conflict of interest. of interest. Appendix 1 ConflictsAppendixConflicts AppendixofConflicts Interest: of 1 Interest: of The1 Interest: authorsThe authors The declare authors declare no declare conflict no conflict no of conflictinterest. of interest. of interest. AppendixAppendixCriteria 1 1 Groups Criteria Items Criteria Criteria GroupsCriteria Groups Groups CriteriaCriteria ItemsCriteria Items Items

Appendix AppendixCriteria Appendix 1Criteria 1Groups Groups1 CriteriaCriteria Items Items

Criteria Criteria GroupsCriteria Groups Groups CriteriaCriteria ItemsCriteria Items Items

Exposure Aspest Exposure Exposure Aspest Exposure Exposure Aspest Exposure

DisasterDisaster Disaster ClimateClimate Climate

Exposure Aspest Exposure Exposure Aspest Exposure Exposure Aspest DisasterDisaster ClimateClimate Sea levelSea level Searise level rise rise

Disasterpotentialpotential potential potential prediction Climateprediction prediction prediction Sea levelSea level rise Sea levelrise rise

Exposure Aspest Exposure Exposure Aspest Exposure potentialAspest Exposure potential predictionprediction DisasterDisaster Disaster ClimateClimate Climate Sea levelSea level Searise levelrise rise potentialpotential potential predictionpredictionprediction

FarmlandFarmlandFarmland Soil grSoiloup grSoil oup gr oupFarmland Farmland Soil grSoiloup gr oup product. product. abilityproduct. ability ability product.product.Farmland ability ability product.

Sensitivity aspect Soil group FarmlandFarmlandFarmland Soil grSoiloup grSoil oup gr oup ability product.product. abilityproduct. ability ability

Dist.Dist. to irr.Dist. to irr. to irr. RatioRatio of Ratio of of WaterWater groupWater group group Dist. Dist. to irr. to irr. RatioRatio of of WaterWater group group channels channels channels irri gationirri gationir arearigation area area channelschannels irrigationirrigation area area Dist.Dist. to irr. Dist.to irr. to irr. RatioRatio of Ratio of of WaterWater groupWater group group

Water groupchannels Dist.channels to irr. channels channels irri gationirri Ratiogationir areari ofgation irrigation area area area

Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity

Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity

Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity

Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity

ScaleScale of Scale of of FarmlandFarmlandFarmland block block block Scale Scale of of BlocksBlocks groupBlocks group group Farmland Farmland block block Cultivated Cultivated Cultivated BlocksBlocks group group area area area CultivatedCultivated area area ScaleLandScale Landof Scale ofLand of FarmlandFarmlandFarmland block block block Land Land BlocksBlocks groupBlocks group group CultivatedCultivatedCultivated area area area LandLand Land

SustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 2020 ,2020 12, 4637, 122020, 4637, 12 , 4637 20 of20 22 of 2022 of 22 SustainabilitySustainability 2020, 202012, 4637, 12, 4637 20 of 2022 of 22 Acknowledgments:Acknowledgments:Acknowledgments: This This paper paper This is a paper partialis a partial is result a partial result of the result of research the of research the project research project 101 project- AgriTech101-AgriTech 101--AgriTech14-1--141--Plan1--114-Plan-- Q2.1-1- PlanFinancialQ2. Financial- Q2. Financial Acknowledgments:Acknowledgments: This paperThis paper is a partial is a partial result result of the of research the research project project 101-AgriTech 101-AgriTech-14-1-114-Plan-1-1--Plan Q2. -Financial Q2. Financial supportsupport forsupport this for this research for research this was research was granted granted was by granted the by Council the by Council the of Council Agriculture, of Agriculture, of Agriculture, Taiwan Taiwan (Republic Taiwan (Republic (Republic of China), of China), of which China), which is which is is supportsupport for this for research this research was grantedwas granted by the by Council the Council of Agriculture, of Agriculture, Taiwan Taiwan (Republic (Republic of China), of China), which which is is gratefullygratefullygratefully acknowledged acknowledged acknowledged by the by authors. the by authors. the authors. gratefullygratefully acknowledged acknowledged by the by authors. the authors. ConflictsConflicts Conflictsof Interest: of Interest: of The Interest: Theauthors authors The declare authors declare no declare conflict no conflict no of conflict interest. of interest. of interest. ConflictsConflicts of Interest: of Interest: The authorsThe authors declare declare no conflict no conflict of interest. of interest. AppendixAppendixAppendix 1 1 1 AppendixAppendix 1 1 CriteriaCriteria GroupsCriteria Groups Groups CriteriaCriteria ItemsCriteria Items Items

Criteria Criteria Groups Groups CriteriaCriteria Items Items

Exposure Aspest Exposure Exposure Aspest Exposure

Exposure Aspest Exposure Exposure Aspest Exposure Exposure Aspest Exposure DisasterDisaster Disaster ClimateClimate Climate DisasterDisaster ClimateClimate Sea Sealevel levelSea rise level rise rise potentialpotentialpotential predictionpredictionprediction Sea levelSea level rise rise potentialpotential predictionprediction

FarmlandFarmlandFarmland Soil Soilgroup grSoiloup gr oupFarmland Farmland Soil grSoiloup gr oup product.product. product.ability ability ability product.product. ability ability

Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 20 of 21

Dist.Dist. to irr. Dist.to irr. to irr. RatioRatio of Ratio of of CriteriaWaterWater GroupsgroupWater group group Dist. Dist. to irr. to irr. RatioRatio of of Criteria Items WaterWater group group channelschannelschannels ir rigationirrigationir arearigation area area

channelschannels irrigationirrigation area area

Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity

Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity Sensitivity aspect Sensitivity

ScaleScale of Scale of of FarmlandFarmlandFarmland block block block Scale Scale of of BlocksBlocks groupBlocks group group FarmlandFarmland block block CultivatedCultivatedScaleCultivated of Cultivated BlocksBlocksBlocks group group Farmlandareaarea block area area CultivatedCultivated area area LandLand Land LandLand

SustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 2020Sustainability, 202012, Sustainability4637, 122020, 4637, 122020 , 4637 ,2020 12 , 4637, 12, 4637 21 of21 22 of 2122 of 2122 of21 22 of 22 SustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 2020Sustainability, 202012Sustainability, 4637, 202012, 4637, 122020, 4637 ,2020 12 , 4637, 12, 4637 21 of21 22 of 2122 of 2122 of21 22 of 22 SustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 2020, 202012,Sustainability 4637, 202012, 4637, 12, 4637 2020 , 12, 4637 21 of 2122 of21 22 of 22 21 of 22 Ecological EcologicalEcologicalEcologicalEcological Ecological SensitiveSensitive area area conservationEcologicalEcologicalEcological Ecological Ecological SensitiveSensitive SensitiveareaSensitive areaEcological conservationareaconservationEcological area conservationEcological conservation area conservationEcological SensitiveSensitiveSensitive areaSensitive area Sensitive areaconservation areaconservation area conservation conservationconservation SensitiveSensitiveSensitive area area Sensitive area conservation areaconservation areaarea conservation area conservationarea area areaarea area areaarea areaarea area area

HouseholdHouseholdHousehold Household HouseholdRatio Ratio of pea.Ratio of pea. Ratio of pea.Ratio of Agepea. of Agepea.of ofAge Ageof EducationAge of Education of Education Education EducationAvg. Avg. of agri.Avg. of agri. Avg. of agri.Avg. of agri. of agri. Household Ratio of pea. Age of Education Avg. of agri. Adaptation aspect HouseholdHouseholdHousehold Household Ratio Ratio of pea.Ratio of pea.Ratio of pea. of pea. Age Ageof Ageof Age of Educationof EducationEducation Education Avg. Avg. of agri.Avg. of agri. Avg. of agri. of agri. HouseholdHouseholdchar.Householdchar. Household char. char. char. HouseholdRatio char.Ratio HH.Ratio of HH. ofRatiopea. of pea. HH. pea. of HH. pea. HH.Ratiocultivator HH. Age ofcultivator pea. Age of cultivator Age of cultivatorcultivator of cultivator EducationAgedegree Educationofdegree Educationdegree Education degree EducationAvg. degreeincome degree Avg. ofincome agri.Avg. of income agri. of Avg.income agri. Avg. ofincome agri. of agri. income char.char. char. char. char. HH. HH. HH. HH.cultivatorHH. cultivator cultivator cultivator cultivator degree degree degree degree degreeincome income income income income

char.char. char. char.HH. HH. HH. cultivatorHH.cultivator cultivator cultivator degreedegree degree degreeincomeincome income income

Counts Counts ofCounts of Counts of Counts Ratio of Ratio of Ratio of Ratio of Ratio of of Adaptation aspect Adaptation

Adaptation aspect Adaptation Ratio of Expenditure-

Adaptation aspect Adaptation aspect Adaptation Adaptation aspect Adaptation RatioRatio of Ratio of of ExpenditureExpenditureExpenditure- - - Agriculture org. Ratio of productionCountsCounts ofCounts - ofCounts participating ofCounts Ratio of Ratio of of Ratio in of Ratio of Ratio ofExpenditure of - Adaptation aspect Adaptation Agriculture org. production - participating in

Adaptation aspect Adaptation AgricultureAgriculture org. org. productionproduction - - participatingparticipating in in Adaptation aspect Adaptation

Adaptation aspect Adaptation Ratio of Expenditure-

Agricultureaspect Adaptation org. membershipRatioRatio of Ratio of RatioCounts ofproduction Counts of ofCounts of - ofCounts participatingRatioRatio of of Ratio of in of revenue RatioExpenditure of ratioExpenditure Expenditure-Expenditure- - -

Adaptation aspect Adaptation

Adaptation aspect Adaptation Adaptation aspect Adaptation AgricultureAgricultureAgriculture org.Agricultureaspect Adaptation org.Agriculture org.Ratiomembership org.Ratio ofmembershiporg. Ratio of membership ofmembership productionRatio productionCounts of production ofproduction production - productionparticipating - participating - participating Ratio- participatingin ofparticipating in participating Expenditure inrevenue Expenditure inrevenueExpenditure in ratio- revenueExpenditure-revenue - ratiorevenueExpenditure- ratio ratio - AgricultureAgricultureAgricultureAgriculture org.org. org.Agriculture org.membership Ratio membership of membership org. membership membershipproductionsale production saleunit production unitsale - unitsale - practiceproductionparticipating saleunit - practiceparticipating unit courseparticipatingpractice - course practicein course participatingpracticein revenue coursein revenue course revenueratio in ratiorevenue revenueratio ratio ratio membershipmembershipmembership membership sale saleunit sale unit sale unit salepractice saleunitpractice unit practicecourse courseinpractice practice coursepractice revenue course course revenue course revenue ratio ratio ratiorevenue ratio ratio sale saleunit sale unit unitpractice salepractice unit practicecourse course coursepractice course

RuralRural Rural Rural Rural SocioSocio-economicSocio-economicSocio-economic Socio-economic -economic RuralRural Rural Rural Rural SocioSocio-economicSocio-economicSocio-economic Socio-economicNurture -economicNurture ratioNurture ratio Nurture NurtureratioAging ratioAging indexratio Aging index Aging index Aging index index regeneration Ruralregeneration Ruralregeneration Rural regeneration regeneration Rural SociocharacteristicSociocharacteristic-economicSocio-characteristiceconomic- characteristiceconomic Socio characteristic Nurture- economic Nurture Nurtureratio ratioNurture Nurtureratio Aging ratio Aging ratioindex Aging index Aging index Aging index index regeneration regeneration regeneration regeneration regeneration Socio-economiccharacteristiccharacteristiccharacteristiccharacteristic characteristic Nurture Nurture Nurtureratio ratio ratioNurture Aging Aging ratioindexAging index index Aging index regenerationcommunityregenerationcommunity regenerationcommunity communityRural regenerationcommunity regeneration characteristiccharacteristiccharacteristic characteristic Nurture ratio Aging index communitycommunitycommunity community community characteristic communitycommunitycommunity communitycommunity ReferencesReferencesReferences References References ReferencesReferencesReferences References References ReferencesReferencesReferences References References1. 1.O lesen,1.O lesen, J.E.;1.O lesen, Bindi,J.E.;1.O lesen, Bindi,J.E.; M.Olesen, Bindi,ConsequencesJ.E.; M. ConsequencesJ.E.;Bindi, M. Bindi,Consequences M. Consequencesof M. climate Consequencesof climate of change climate ofchange climate for of change Europeanclimate for change European for change Europeanagricultural for Europeanagricultural for European agricultural productivity, agricultural productivity, agricultural productivity, land productivity, land useproductivity, landuse landuse landuse use 1. 1.O lesen,1.O lesen, J.E.;1.O lesen, Bindi,J.E.;1.O lesen, Bindi,J.E.; OM.lesen, Bindi, J.E.;Consequences M. J.E.;Bindi,Consequences M. Bindi,Consequences M. Consequences ofM. climate Consequences of climate of change climate of change climate forof change climateEuropean for change European for change European agriculturalfor Europeanagriculturalfor European agricultural productivity, agricultural productivity, agricultural productivity, landproductivity, landproductivity,use landuse landuse land use use 1. 1.andO lesen, policy.1.andO lesen, J.E.;policy.Oand lesen,Eur. Bindi,J.E.; policy.1.and Eur.J. J.E.;Bindi,Agron. policy.andOM. J. lesen,Eur. Bindi, Agron. Consequencespolicy. M. 2002 J.Eur. J.E.;Agron.Consequences M. ,2002 16,Eur.J. Bindi, ConsequencesAgron. 239, 2002 16,J. –Agron. of26239M., 2002 16,2.climate – Consequences of26 239 ,2002 2.climate16, –of 26 change239, climate16,2. – 23926change2. for–of 26change climate2.European for European for change European agricultural agriculturalfor Europeanagricultural productivity, productivity, agricultural productivity, land landuseproductivity, landuse use land use and policy.and policy.and Eur. policy.and Eur.J. Agron. andpolicy. J.Eur. Agron.policy. 2002 J.Eur. Agron. ,2002 Eur.J.16, Agron. 239, 2002 J.16, Agron.– 26239, 200216,2.– 26 2392002, 16,2.– 26,239 16,2. – 239262.– 262. 1. 2. Olesen,2.Klein,and 2.Klein,policy.and J.E.;R.J.; policy.2.andKlein, R.J.;Huq, Bindi,Eur. policy.2.Klein, Huq, R.J.;J.Eur.S.; Agron. Klein,and M.Denton, Huq,Eur.J.S.;R.J.; Agron. Consequencespolicy.Denton, 2002J. R.J.;Huq,S.; Agron. F.; Denton, ,2002Huq, Eur.16,Downing,S.; F.; 239,Denton,2002 J.16,Downing,S.; Agron.–F.; 26239Denton,, 16, Downing,2. ofT.E.;– F.;26239 2002 climate 2.Downing, T.E.;– Richels, F.;26, 16,2.Downing, Richels,T.E.; 239 changeR.G.; Richels,–T.E.;26 R.G.;2. Robinson, T.E.; Richels, for R.G.;Robinson, Richels, European R.G.;Robinson, J.B.; R.G.; Robinson,Toth,J.B.; Robinson, agriculturalToth, J.B.;F.L. Toth,InterJ.B.;F.L. InterToth,J.B.; -F.L.relationships Toth,productivity,-Inter relationshipsF.L. -InterF.L.relationships Inter-relationships -relationships land use and 2. 2.Klein, 2.Klein, R.J.;2.Klein, R.J.;Huq,2.Klein, Huq,R.J.; S.;Klein, Denton, Huq, R.J.;S.; Denton, R.J.; Huq,S.; F.; Denton,Huq, S.;Downing, F.; Denton, S.;Downing, F.; Denton, Downing, T.E.; F.; Downing, T.E.;F.;Richels, Downing, T.E.;Richels, R.G.; T.E.;Richels, R.G.; T.E.; Robinson,Richels, R.G.; Robinson,Richels, R.G.;Robinson, J.B.; R.G.; Robinson, Toth,J.B.; Robinson, Toth,J.B.; F.L. Toth, J.B.;InterF.L. J.B.;Toth, Inter-F.L.relationships Toth, Inter-F.L.relationships -F.L.Interrelationships Inter-relationships -relationships 2.policy. 2.betweenKlein, 2.betweenKlein,Eur. R.J.; adaptationKlein,between J.Huq,R.J.; Agron.adaptation2.between R.J.;Huq, S.; adaptationbetweenKlein, Denton,andHuq, S.;2002 adaptation Denton,and mitigation. R.J.;S.; , adaptationF.; Denton,16 mitigation. andHuq, Downing,, F.; 239–262. mitigation.and S.;Downing,In F.; Denton, Climateandmitigation. Downing,In T.E.; Climatemitigation. [ CrossRef In T.E.;Richels,F.;Change Climate Downing, T.E.;InRichels,Change Climate 2007:R.G.; InRichels, ]Change Climate 2007:R.G.; Impacts,T.E.;Robinson, Change R.G.; 2007: Impacts,Robinson, Richels,Change Adaptation 2007:Robinson,Impacts, J.B.; AdaptationR.G.;2007: Impacts,Toth,J.B.; Adaptation Robinson, Impacts,andToth,J.B.; F.L. Adaptation VulnerabilityandToth, InterF.L. AdaptationVulnerability and J.B.;InterF.L.-relationships Vulnerability Toth,andInter-relationships; Parry, Vulnerabilityand -F.L.relationships; Parry, Vulnerability Inter; Parry, -relationships; Parry, ; Parry, betweenbetween adaptationbetween adaptationbetween adaptationbetween and adaptation andmitigation. adaptation mitigation.and mitigation.and In andmitigation.Climate In mitigation.Climate In Change Climate In Change Climate 2007:In Change Climate 2007: Impacts,Change 2007: Impacts,Change 2007:AdaptationImpacts, 2007:Adaptation Impacts, AdaptationImpacts, and Adaptation Vulnerabilityand Adaptation Vulnerabilityand Vulnerability and; Parry,Vulnerabilityand; Parry,Vulnerability ; Parry, ; Parry, ; Parry, M.L.,betweenM.L.,between Canziani, betweenadaptationM.L., Canziani, adaptationM.L., Canziani,O.F., adaptationM.L.,between O.F., Canziani,Palutikof,and Canziani,O.F.,Palutikof,mitigation.and adaptation andmitigation.O.F., Palutikof,J.P. ,mitigation. O.F.,vanJ.P.Palutikof, In, derandvanPalutikof, ClimateJ.P. In Linden, ,der mitigation.Climatevan J.P.In ChangeLinden, ,Climateder vanJ.P. P.J., Change Linden,, dervan 2007: InHanson, P.J.,Change Linden,derClimate 2007:Hanson, P.J.,Impacts, Linden, 2007:C.E., Hanson, Impacts,P.J.,Change C.E., AdaptationEds.; Impacts,Hanson,P.J., 2007:AdaptationC.E.,Eds.; Hanson,Contribution Adaptation C.E.,Eds.; ContributionImpacts,and C.E., Eds.;VulnerabilityContributionand Adaptation of Eds.;Vulnerability andContribution the ofVulnerability ContributionWorking the; Parry,of Workingand the; Parry,of Vulnerability Working ;the Parry,of Working the Working; Parry, M.L.,M.L., Canziani,M.L., Canziani,M.L., Canziani, O.F.,M.L., Canziani,O.F., Palutikof, Canziani, O.F.,Palutikof, O.F.,Palutikof, J.P. O.F.,, Palutikof,vanJ.P. , Palutikof, dervanJ.P. , Linden, dervan J.P. Linden, ,der J.P.van P.J., ,Linden, vander Hanson,P.J., Linden,der Hanson,P.J., Linden, C.E.,Hanson, P.J., C.E., Eds.;P.J.,Hanson, C.E.,Hanson,Eds.; Contribution C.E.,Eds.; Contribution C.E., Eds.;Contribution Eds.;of Contribution the ofContribution Working the of Working the of Working the of Workingthe Working GroupM.L.,GroupM.L., Canziani, II toM.L.,Group Canziani, IIthe to GroupFourthCanziani, the O.F.,II to GroupM.L.,Fourth O.F.,the Palutikof,II Assessment to FourthCanziani,O.F., Palutikof,IIthe Assessment to Fourth Palutikof,the J.P.Assessment Fourth Report,O.F., vanJ.P. Assessment Report, derPalutikof,vanJ.P. Assessmentof ,Linden,Report the dervan of Intergovernmental Linden,theReportder J.P. of P.J.,Intergovernmental Linden,,Reportthe van ofHanson,P.J., Intergovernmental theder ofHanson,P.J., Intergovernmental Linden,the C.E.,Hanson, PanelIntergovernmental C.E., Eds.; P.J.,Panel on C.E., Eds.; Hanson,Climate ContributionPanel on Eds.; ClimateContribution Panel on Change;C.E., Contribution ClimatePanel on Change; ofEds.; Climate theon Cambridge Change;of Contribution ClimateWorking the Cambridge ofChange; Working the Cambridge Change; Working Cambridge of the Cambridge Working GroupGroup II toGroup IIthe toGroup Fourth theII toGroup Fourth theII Assessment to Fourth IIthe Assessment to Fourth the Assessment Fourth Report Assessment Report Assessment of Report the of Intergovernmental Reportthe of Intergovernmental Reportthe of Intergovernmental the of Intergovernmental the IntergovernmentalPanel Panel on ClimatePanel on Climate Panel on Change; ClimatePanel on Change; Climate on CambridgeChange; Climate Cambridge Change; Cambridge Change; Cambridge Cambridge UniversityGroupUniversityGroup II toGroupUniversity Press: theII toUniversity Press:Fourth IIthe Cambridge, toUniversityGroup Fourth Press:the Cambridge, Assessment Fourth Press: II Cambridge, Assessment to UK, Press: the AssessmentCambridge, 2007UK, FourthReport Cambridge, ;2007 UK,pp.Report Assessment of ;745 2007pp.ReportUK, the –of 777.745 ;Intergovernmental UK,2007 pp.the –of 777. 745Intergovernmental2007; theReportpp. – 777. Intergovernmental;745 pp. of – 777.745 the– 777.IntergovernmentalPanel Panel on ClimatePanel on Climate on Change; Climate Panel Change; on CambridgeChange; Climate Cambridge Cambridge Change; Cambridge UniversityUniversityUniversity Press:University Press: Cambridge,University Press: Cambridge, Press: Cambridge, Press:UK, Cambridge, 2007UK, Cambridge, ;2007UK, pp. ; 2007745 UK,pp.– ;777.745UK,2007 pp.– 777.2007745; pp.– ;777. 745pp. – 745777.– 777. 3. 3.Lim,University 3.Lim, B.;University Spanger B.;3.UniversityLim, Press: Spanger3. B.;Lim, -Press:Siegfried, SpangerCambridge,Lim, UniversityB.; -Press:Siegfried, Cambridge,Spanger B.;- Siegfried,E.; Cambridge,Spanger Burton, UK,Press: -E.;Siegfried, Burton,2007UK,- Siegfried, E.;Cambridge, I.; ;2007UK,Burton, Malone,pp. E.; I.; 2007; 745Malone, Burton,pp. E.; I.;– E.;; 777.745 Burton,UK,pp.Malone, Huq, –I.; E.; 777.7452007 Malone, Huq, –S.I.; 777.E.;; AdaptationMalone,pp. Huq,S. 745E.;Adaptation Huq,S.– 777.E.; Adaptation Policy Huq, S. AdaptationPolicy Frameworks S. Adaptation Policy Frameworks Policy Frameworks for Policy Climate Frameworks for ClimateFrameworks for Change: Climate forChange: Climate for Change: Climate Change: Change: 3. 3.Lim, 3.Lim, B.; Spanger3. Lim,B.; Spanger3. B.;Lim, - Siegfried,SpangerLim, B.;-Siegfried, Spanger B.;- Siegfried,SpangerE.; Burton,- Siegfried,E.; Burton,-Siegfried, E.; I.; Burton, Malone, E.; I.; Burton,Malone, E.; I.; Burton,E.; Malone, Huq, I.; E.; Malone, Huq,I.; S. E.; Malone,Adaptation Huq, S. E.; Adaptation Huq,S. E.; Adaptation PolicyHuq, S. Adaptation Policy S.Frameworks Adaptation Policy Frameworks Policy Frameworks for Policy FrameworksClimate for FrameworksClimate for Change: Climate for Change: Climate for Change: Climate Change: Change: 3. 3.DevelopingLim, 3.Developing Lim,B.; SpangerLim, DevelopingB.; Strategies, Spanger3. B.;Developing Strategies, - Siegfried,SpangerDevelopingLim, Strategies,Policies-Siegfried, B.; PoliciesStrategies,-Siegfried, E.;Spanger and Burton,Strategies,Policies E.;Measures; and Burton, -Policies Siegfried,E.;Measures; andI.; Burton, PoliciesMalone, Measures;United I.;and Malone, E.;United Measures; I.;and E.; NationsBurton,Malone, Measures;UnitedHuq, E.;Nations Huq, United I.;S.Development E.; Nations Malone,Adaptation Huq,United S.Development NationsAdaptation S. Development E.; NationsAdaptation Policy Huq, Programme Development Policy ProgrammeFrameworksS. Development Adaptation Policy FrameworksProgramme: New Frameworks Programme for: New PolicyYork, ClimateProgramme for: NewYork, FrameworksClimateNY, for :Change: NewYork, ClimateUSA,NY, :Change: New USA,York, NY, for Change: York, USA, Climate NY, USA,NY, Change: USA, DevelopingDevelopingDeveloping Strategies,Developing Strategies,Developing Strategies, Policies Strategies,Policies and Strategies, Policies Measures; and Policies Measures; and Policies Measures; United and United Measures;and Nations Measures;United Nations United Development Nations United Development Nations Development Nations ProgrammeDevelopment ProgrammeDevelopment Programme: New Programme: New York, Programme: New York, NY,: NewYork, USA,NY,: New York, USA,NY, York, USA, NY, NY,USA, USA, 2004.Developing2004. Developing Developing2004. Strategies, 2004. Strategies,2004.Developing Strategies, Policies Policies and Strategies,Policies Measures; and Measures; and Policies Measures; United United and Nations UnitedMeasures; Nations Development Nations United Development Development Nations Programme ProgrammeDevelopment Programme: New: New York, Programme: New York, NY, York, USA,NY,: New USA,NY, York,USA, NY, USA, 2004.2004. 2004. 2004.2004. 4. 4.Füssel,2004. 4.Füssel,2004. H.M.4.2004.Füssel, H.M. Adaptation4. Füssel, H.M.AdaptationFüssel,2004. H.M.Adaptation planning H.M. Adaptation planning Adaptation forplanning climate for planning climate forplanning change: climate for change: climate forConcepts, change: climate Concepts, change: Concepts, as change:sessment Concepts,assessment Concepts, as approaches,sessment as approaches,sessment as approaches,sessment and approaches, keyand approaches, lessons.key and lessons. key and lessons. keyand lessons.key lessons. 4. 4.Füssel, 4.Füssel, H.M.4.Füssel, H.M. Adaptation4.Füssel, H.M. AdaptationFüssel, H.M. Adaptation planning H.M. Adaptation planning Adaptation planningfor climate forplanning climate planningfor change: climate for change: climate for Concepts, change: climate Concepts, change: Concepts, aschange:sessment Concepts,assessment Concepts, as sessmentapproaches, as approaches,sessment as sessmentapproaches, and approaches, keyand approaches, lessons. keyand lessons.key and lessons. andkey lessons.key lessons. 4. 4.Sustain.Füssel, 4.Sustain.Füssel, H.M.Sci.Füssel,Sustain. 2007H.M.Sci. Adaptation4.Sustain. ,2007H.M. 2 Sci.Adaptation, Sustain.Füssel,265, 2007 2 AdaptationSci.–, 275.265 planning, 2007H.M.2Sci.– ,275. 265 planning ,2007 2Adaptation –,275. planning265for, 2 ,–climate 265275.for – climate 275. forplanning change: climate change: forConcepts, change: climate Concepts, Concepts, aschange:sessment assessment Concepts,as sessmentapproaches, approaches, as approaches,sessment and keyand approaches, lessons.keyand lessons.key lessons. and key lessons. Sustain.Sustain. Sci.Sustain. 2007 Sci.Sustain. ,2007 Sci.2Sustain., 265 ,2007 2Sci.–, 275.265, 2007Sci.2–, 275.265 2007, 2– ,275. 265, 2, – 265275.– 275. 5. 5.Laux,Sustain. 5.Laux,Sustain. P.; Sci. Jackel,5.Sustain.Laux, P.; 2007 Sci. Jackel,5.Laux, P.;G.; ,2007 Sci.2 Jackel,, Laux,Sustain. Tingem, 265G.; P.;,2007 2 –,Jackel, Tingem,275. 265 P.;,G.; 2Sci. –, Jackel,R.M.; 275.265Tingem, G.;2007 – R.M.;275. Kunstmann,Tingem, G.;, 2 ,R.M.; 265Tingem,Kunstmann,– R.M.;275. Kunstmann, H.R.M.; Kunstmann, Impact H. Kunstmann, Impact H. of Impactclimate H.of climateImpact H. of change Impactclimate ofchange climate on of change agriculturalclimate on changeagricultural on change agricultural onproductivity agricultural on productivity agricultural productivity productivity productivity 5. 5.Laux, 5.Laux, P.; 5.Laux,Jackel, P.; 5.Jackel,Laux, P.; G.; Laux,Jackel, Tingem, P.;G.; Jackel, Tingem,P.; G.; Jackel, R.M.;Tingem, G.; R.M.; Tingem,Kunstmann,G.; R.M.;Tingem, Kunstmann, R.M.; Kunstmann, R.M.;H. Kunstmann, Impact H. Kunstmann, Impact H. of Impact climate H. of Impact climateH. of changeImpact climate of change climate onof change climateagricultural on change agricultural on change agricultural on productivity agricultural on productivity agricultural productivity productivity productivity 5. 5.underLaux, 5.underLaux, P.; rainfed Laux,underJackel, P.; rainfed 5.Jackel,under conditions P.; rainfedG.; Jackel,under conditionsLaux, Tingem, G.; rainfed conditions Tingem, P.;G.; inrainfed Jackel, CameroonR.M.;Tingem, conditions in CameroonR.M.; conditions Kunstmann, inG.; R.M.; Cameroon -Tingem,Kunstmann, A in method Cameroon-Kunstmann, A in methodH.R.M.; Cameroon-A Impact to methodH. improvedKunstmann,-A Impact to H. method - improvedofA Impact to climate method of improved attainable climate toH. of improvedchange attainable Impactclimate to improved change attainable crop on ofchange attainable cropagriculturalclimate yieldson attainableagricultural cropyields on bchange yagricultural crop yields planting bproductivityy crop plantingyieldson productivity b y agricultural yields date planting productivity by date planting by date planting productivity date date underunder rainfedunder rainfed under conditions rainfed under conditions rainfed conditions rainfed in Cameroonconditions in conditionsCameroon in Cameroon- A in method Cameroon -A in methodCameroon-A to method - improvedA to method -A improved to method improved attainable to improved attainable to improved attainable crop attainable crop yields attainable crop yields b y cropyields planting b y crop yields planting by yields plantingdate by date planting by dateplanting date date adaptations.underadaptations.under rainfedunderadaptations. rainfedAgric. adaptations. conditionsrainfed Agric. For. adaptations.under conditions Agric. MeteorolFor. conditions rainfed in Agric.Meteorol For. Cameroon . in Agric. 2010Meteorol For. Cameroonconditions in. ,2010 150MeteorolFor. Cameroon-A., 2010 1258Meteorol150 method- A in,. , –1258 2010 150 method1271. Cameroon-A., – ,2010 to1258 method1271.150 improved ,to– 1258150 1271. - improvedA ,to –1258 method 1271. improved attainable–1271. attainable to improved attainable crop crop yields attainable crop yields by yields planting b y crop planting by yields plantingdate date by date planting date adaptations.adaptations.adaptations. Agric.adaptations. Agric. adaptations.For. Agric. MeteorolFor. Agric. MeteorolFor. .Agric. 2010Meteorol For.. ,2010 MeteorolFor.150. ,2010Meteorol 1258150.,, 2010–12581501271.. ,2010 ,–1258 1501271. ,, – 15012581271. , 1258– 1271.–1271. adaptations.adaptations.adaptations. Agric. Agric. adaptations.For. Agric. MeteorolFor. MeteorolFor. .Agric. Meteorol2010. ,2010 For.150. ,,2010 Meteorol1258150, –12581501271.., 2010–12581271. ,– 1501271. , 1258 –1271. 6. 6.Lee, 6.Lee,C.J.; C.J.;Chan,6.Lee, Chan, 6.C.J.;Lee, S.L. Chan, Lee,C.J.; AS.L. Study C.J.;Chan,A S.L. Study onChan, A S.L.the Study on Vulnerability A S.L.the Study on VulnerabilityA the Study on Vulnerability the Assessment on Vulnerability the Assessment Vulnerability Assessment and AssessmentAdaptation and AssessmentAdaptation and Adaptation Strategyand AdaptationStrategyand ofAdaptation Strategy Agriculture of StrategyAgriculture of Strategy Agriculture Land of Agriculture Land under of Agriculture underLand Landunder Land under under 6. 6.Lee, 6. Lee,C.J.; 6.C.J.;Chan,Lee, 6.Chan,C.J.;Lee, S.L. Chan,Lee,C.J.; AS.L. Study C.J.;Chan, AS.L. Study Chan,on A S.L. theStudy on VulnerabilityAS.L. the Study on AVulnerability theStudy on Vulnerability the onAssessment Vulnerability the Assessment Vulnerability Assessment and Assessment Adaptation and Assessment Adaptation and Adaptation andStrategy Adaptationand Strategy Adaptationof Strategy Agriculture of Strategy Agriculture of Strategy Agriculture Land of Agriculture Land ofunder Agriculture Landunder Landunder Land under under 6. 6.theLee, Impact6.the C.J.;Lee, Impact Lee,Chan,theC.J.;Climate Impact 6.C.J.;Chan,Climatethe S.L. ChangeImpact Chan, theLee, Climate AS.L. ChangeStudyImpact C.J.; ; ClimateA S.L.Council StudyChange onChan, ;ClimateA Council theStudy Changeon of; Vulnerability S.L. Councilthe AgricultureChange on of VulnerabilityA; the Council AgricultureStudy Vulnerabilityof; Council Agriculture Assessmenton researchof the AgricultureAssessment researchofVulnerability AgricultureAssessment project: andresearch project:Adaptation andresearch Tai Assessment Adaptationproject: andresearchpei, Tai Adaptation project:Taiwan,Strategypei, Tai project: Taiwan,andStrategypei, Tai Adaptationof2012. StrategyTaiwan, pei,Agriculture Tai 2012.of (In Taiwan,pei,Agriculture Chinese).of 2012. (InStrategy Taiwan,Agriculture LandChinese). 2012.(In Land underChinese). of2012. (In Agriculture Land under Chinese). (In under Chinese). Land under the Impactthe Impactthe Climate Impact theClimate ImpactChangethe Climate ImpactChange Climate; Council Change Climate; Council Change ;of Council ChangeAgriculture of; Council Agriculture ;of Council Agriculture ofresearch Agriculture ofresearch Agriculture project:research project: research Tai project:researchpei, Tai project: Taiwan,pei, Tai project: Taiwan,pei, Tai 2012. Taiwan,pei, Tai 2012. (InTaiwan,pei, Chinese).2012. Taiwan,(In Chinese). 2012.(In Chinese). 2012. (In Chinese). (In Chinese). the Impactthe Impactthe Climate Impact Climate Change theClimate ImpactChange; Council Change Climate; Council ;of Council AgricultureChange of Agriculture of; Council Agriculture research ofresearch Agriculture project:research project: Tai project: researchpei, Tai Taiwan,pei, Tai project: Taiwan,pei, 2012. Taiwan, Tai 2012. (Inpei, Chinese).2012. (InTaiwan, Chinese). (In Chinese). 2012. (In Chinese). Sustainability 2020, 12, 4637 21 of 21

2. Klein, R.J.; Huq, S.; Denton, F.; Downing, T.E.; Richels, R.G.; Robinson, J.B.; Toth, F.L. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J., Hanson, C.E., Eds.; Contribution of the Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2007; pp. 745–777. 3. Lim, B.; Spanger-Siegfried, E.; Burton, I.; Malone, E.; Huq, S. Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures; United Nations Development Programme: New York, NY, USA, 2004. 4. Füssel, H.M. Adaptation planning for climate change: Concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons. Sustain. Sci. 2007, 2, 265–275. [CrossRef] 5. Laux, P.; Jackel, G.; Tingem, R.M.; Kunstmann, H. Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under rainfed conditions in Cameroon-A method to improved attainable crop yields by planting date adaptations. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2010, 150, 1258–1271. [CrossRef] 6. Lee, C.J.; Chan, S.L. A Study on the Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategy of Agriculture Land under the Impact Climate Change; Council of Agriculture Research Project: Taipei, Taiwan, 2012. (In Chinese) 7. Aschonitis, V.G.; Mastrocicco, M.; Colombani, N.; Salemi, E.; Kazakis, N.; Voudouris, K.; Castaldelli, G. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of agricultural land to water and nitrogen losses via deterministic approach and regression analysis. Water Air Soil Poll. 2012, 223, 1605–1614. [CrossRef] 8. Berry, P.M.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Harrison, P.A.; Audsley, E. Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural land use and species to climate change and the role of policy in facilitating adaptation. Environ. Sci. Policy 2006, 9, 189–204. [CrossRef] 9. Cui, Y.; Jiang, S.; Jin, J.; Ning, S.; Feng, P. Quantitative assessment of soybean drought loss sensitivity at diﬀerent growth stages based on S-shaped damage curve. Agr. Water Manag. 2019, 213, 821–832. [CrossRef] 10. Gbetibouo, G.A.; Ringler, C. Mapping South African Farming Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability: A Subnational Assessment; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA): Washington, DC, USA, 2009. 11. Hewitt, J.; Brierley, T.; Chen, K.; Hill, H. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Land-Use Suitability; Spring Seeded Small Grains on the Prairie, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Environment Canada. 2008. Available online: http://www4.agr.gc.ca/resources/prod/doc/pfra/pdf/assess_clim_chang_ prairies_e.pdf (accessed on 15 April 2014). 12. Ronco, P.;Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A.L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A. A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change. Adv. Water Resour. 2017, 110, 562–578. [CrossRef] 13. Wang, J.H.; Fong, J.L.; Chen, M.F. Constructing the indicator of Multi-function utilization for agriculture land. J. Taiwan Land Res. 2011, 15, 31–71. (In Chinese) 14. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change; IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): Geneva, Switzerland, 2007. 15. UNEP. Assessing Human Vulnerability Due to Environmental Change: Concepts, Issues, Methods and Case Studies; UNEP/DEWA/ RS.03-5; United Nations Environmental Programme: Nairobi, Kenya, 2001. 16. Chen, J.H.; Kuang, T.C.; Su, G.S. The Impact Assessment and Adaptive Strategy of Sea Level Rise in the Country under Climate Change; Environmental Protection Administration Executive Yuan Research Project: Taipei, Taiwan, 2001. (In Chinese) 17. Rannow, S.; Loibl, W.; Greiving, S.; Gruehn, D.; Meyer, B.C. Potential impacts of climate change in Germany—identifying regional priorities for adaptation activities in spatial planning. Landscape Urban Plan. 2010, 98, 160–171. [CrossRef]

© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).