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Gateway Cities Transit Assessment Final Draft Date: February 28, 2014 Gateway Cities Transit Assessment Final Draft Date: February 28, 2014 Prepared for: Gateway Cities Council of Governments Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority Prepared by: 445 S. Figueroa Street, Suite 2700 Los Angeles, CA 90071 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................. ES-1 2013 Existing Transit Service ........................................................................... ES-2 2035 No Build .................................................................................................... ES-2 2035 Build ........................................................................................................... ES-3 Summary ............................................................................................................ ES-7 1.0 Purpose and Approach ....................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Approach ..................................................................................................... 1-2 1.2 Diversion Rate Assumptions .................................................................... 1-4 2.0 Assessment Content ........................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Existing Services ......................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Planned Services ......................................................................................... 2-5 2.3 The Transit Database .................................................................................. 2-9 3.0 Data Sources ........................................................................................................ 3-1 4.0 Database Summary ............................................................................................. 4-1 5.0 Findings ................................................................................................................ 5-1 5.1 2013 Existing ................................................................................................ 5-1 5.2 2035 No Build .............................................................................................. 5-2 5.3 2035 Build..................................................................................................... 5-3 5.4 Summary of Analysis ............................................................................... 5-13 A. Personal Vehicle Trip Reduction .................................................................... A-1 B. Diverted Personal Vehicle Trips Roadway Allocation ............................... B-1 C. Intercity and Commuter Rail Travel Market Assumptions ....................... C-1 i List of Tables Table ES.1 Year 2013 Average Weekday Ridership by Transit Mode .............. ES-2 Table ES.2 Summary of Planned Transit Service Improvements in Gateway Cities ....................................................................................... ES-3 Table ES.3 2035 Build Daily Personal Vehicle Trip Reduction .......................... ES-6 Table 1.1 Transit Trip Mode Diversion Assumptions ......................................... 1-5 Table 1.2 Commuter and Intercity Rail Trip Mode Diversion Assumptions ............................................................................................. 1-6 Table 3.1 Prior Studies Used to Develop the Transit Assessment ..................... 3-1 Table 3.2 Agencies Interviewed to Develop the Transit Assessment ................ 3-2 Table 3.3 Agencies that Did Not Respond to Request for Comment ................ 3-3 Table 4.1 Capacity, Ridership and Diversion from Other Modes, by Major Transit Project ............................................................................... 4-3 Table 5.1 Summary of Existing Transit Services in the Gateway Cities ............ 5-1 Table 5.2 Peak-Hour Capacity by Mode – Existing ............................................. 5-2 Table 5.3 Average Weekday Ridership by Mode – Existing ............................... 5-2 Table 5.4 Summary of Planned Improvements to Transit Services in Gateway Cities .......................................................................................... 5-3 Table 5.5 Forecasted Weekday Ridership Growth in the Gateway Cities ........ 5-4 Table 5.6 Peak-Hour Capacity Growth .................................................................. 5-5 Table 5.7 Prior Mode for All New Average Weekday Ridership ...................... 5-9 Table 5.8 2035 Weekday Personal Vehicle Trip Reduction ................................. 5-9 Table 5.9 2035 Build Scenario Average Weekday Automobile Trips Removed by Roadway .......................................................................... 5-11 Table A.1 Daily Personal Vehicle Trips Reduced Due to Transit Services ....... A-1 Table B.1 2035 Build Daily Personal Vehicle Trips Reduced by Roadway ...... B-3 Table C.1 High-Speed Rail Travel Markets – Share of Total Trips .................... C-2 iii List of Tables, continued Table C.2 2035 Population Forecast – Los Angeles County Population ........... C-2 Table C.3 2035 Population Forecast – Gateway Cities Population .................... C-2 Table C.4 Intercity Markets Forecasted Total Trips and Diversion Assumptions ............................................................................................ C-3 Table C.5 Intercity Markets Calculated Diverted Trips by Purpose and Mode ......................................................................................................... C-4 Table C.6 Intercity Markets Calculated Total Trips All Trip Purposes ............. C-5 Table C.7 Intercity Markets Calculated Average Diversion Rates .................... C-5 Table C.8 Final Rail Market Diversion Rates Used for Ridership Analysis ..... C-6 iv Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 8787-009 List of Figures Figure ES.1 2035 Build Major Transit Route Capacity Utilization ...................... ES-4 Figure ES.2 Daily Personal Vehicle Trips Diverted by Major Roadway ............ ES-6 Figure 2.1 Existing Transit Services ......................................................................... 2-4 Figure 5.1 2035 Average Weekday Ridership by Transit Mode .......................... 5-5 Figure 5.2 2035 Seated Peak-Hour Capacity by Mode .......................................... 5-6 Figure 5.3 2035 Build Major Transit Route Capacity Utilization ......................... 5-7 Figure 5.4 2035 Build Total Weekday Personal Vehicle Trips Removed, by Major Roadway ...................................................................................... 5-10 v Executive Summary The Gateway Cities Transit Assessment consists of an inventory of existing transit services and a sketch-level analysis of the potential effects of planned and proposed rapid transit projects considered in the Gateway Cities Strategic Transportation Plan, based on trends and industry factors. The assessment illustrates how existing, approved, planned, and proposed transit projects may affect transit ridership, personal vehicle travel, and other travel modes in the Gateway Cities. The analysis addresses local services, regional services such as Metrolink, and interregional services such as the Amtrak Pacific Surfliner and proposed statewide high-speed rail system. Current and historic data were collected from existing public documents, transit provider interviews, and our estimates using widely accepted transit factors. Upon completion of data collection, we estimated the effect of existing transit services on other travel modes, assembled future transit ridership forecasts, and analyzed the potential effect of future transit service levels on transportation performance. The future analysis considered two scenarios: 1. 2035 No Build. Continuation of 2013 transit service levels, but increased population and employment consistent with regional and statewide growth forecasts; and 2. 2035 Build. Planned and proposed speed and service level improvements for existing transit, new transit route and service offerings, and increased population and employment consistent with regional and statewide growth forecasts. The 2035 forecasts reflect application of multiple assumptions based on readily available data and trends. For example, transit ridership forecasts are based on a synthesis of prior statewide, regional, and corridor forecasts, and generalized ridership trends for cases where specific forecasts were not available. The results indicate a range of possible future transit system performance and multimodal effects. Sections 1.0 and 5.0 in the main report provide further information on analysis data, assumptions, and results. This technical memorandum is accompanied by a spreadsheet transit database containing detailed data collection and analysis results. A separate report, the Gateway Cities Maximum Transit Scenario Assessment, builds upon this analysis to estimate the additional impact of greatly enhancing regional bus services in the Gateway Cities. A third report, the Gateway Cities Park-and-Ride Assessment, ES-1 Gateway Cities Transit Assessment discusses the potential effect of existing and planned park-and-ride facilities in the Gateway Cities subregion. 2013 EXISTING TRANSIT SERVICE Table ES.1 describes existing average weekday transit ridership by mode in the subregion. Existing transit services, including local bus, express bus, light rail, and heavy rail, provide about 318,790 trips each weekday. We estimate that existing transit
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