Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 67
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Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 67 Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 68 Figure 29 a-e: For the selected area (red square), this shows the probability of oil from each of the 23 Spill Start Sites to bring oil above the Level of Concern to the selected area within five days. Each picture represents Spring season, with different selected areas (different red squares). These are summary statistics for 2010 only. A comparison analysis is presented for a single season with multiple query sites to show how the Threat Analysis area changes. Spill Start Sites can be adjusted before computation to meet with particular goals for discerning the threat area for spills to contact a particular area. Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 69 Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 70 Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 71 Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 72 Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 73 6.5.4 Resource Analysis: This analysis helps spill planners estimate the level of response needed to adequately address potential impacts from modeled spills, and the quantity of a particular resource that could be impacted by these modeled spills. This analysis could not be performed because the Proponent’s natural resource information was not provided. Also, geospatial response equipment information, such as meters of boom required for protecting particular areas was not available. 6.6 Alternative Spill Scenarios Some concerns of Gitxaala can best be described through spill scenarios. Below are two simple spill scenarios that allow further analysis of potential natural resource impacts in Section 8 within this report. Scenario 1: Dolphin Island Powered Grounding. There is concern that tanker loss of steerage in the vicinity of Dolphin Island could result in a powered grounding. If this occurred during continued onshore winds, the concern is that the vessel would be difficult to pull off the grounding site due to onshore winds and waves. The historical wind record from Hecate Strait was analyzed for a period of onshore winds in the vicinity of Dolphin island and the nearby proposed transit route; an example occurs during April 2007 (see Figures SC-1 and SC-2 below.) Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 74 Figure 30: There is a period during April 2007 when the winds have a sustained onshore component. Winds are primarily onshore (generally from the south) through early April 18, 2007. Figure 31: Wind speeds for the same April 9–18, 2007 as in Figure 30 Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 75 A simple ship drift was started at Spill Start Site 8 (Figure 30) at 12:00 PDT April 9, 2007. (This is not exactly the same as a powered grounding, but the GNOME model does not have any ship specific scenario tools). A drifting vessel could contact the vicinity of Dolphin Island by approximately 21:15 PST that night, after sunset (Table 4). Average monthly water column profiles of Temperature and Salinity are show below in Figures SC10 and SC11, with the full year of monthly mean Temperature and Salinity profiles shown above in Figures SC5 and SC6 from the nearest gridpoint available within the Live Access Server (LAS) National Virtual Ocean Data Server (NVODS) World Ocean Atlas (2005) (http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/NVODS/). A more complete analysis could be done with more detailed water column information for the area of interest. Table 4: Sunrise Sunset Calculations Date Sunrise (PST) Sunset (PST) Sunrise (PDT) Sunset (PDT) 4/09/2007 19:32 20:32 4/10/2007 05:54 19:34 06:54 20:34 4/11/2007 05:52 19:36 06:52 20:36 4/12/2007 05:49 19:38 06:49 20:38 4/13/2007 05:47 19:40 06:47 20:40 4/14/2007 05:45 19:41 06:45 20:41 (Source: NOAA Sunrise/Sunset calculator, http://www.srrb.noaa.gov/highlights/sunrise/sunrise.html) Figure 32: Average April ocean temperature profile (Locarnini et al., 2006 and Antonov et al., 2005) Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 76 Figure 33: April average ocean salinity profile (Locarnini et al., 2006 and Antonov et al., 2005) Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 77 Figure 34: Annual monthly mean ocean temperature profiles (Locarnini et al., 2006 and Antonov et al., 2005) Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 78 Figure 35: Monthly mean ocean salinity profiles (Locarnini et al., 2006 and Antonov et al., 2005). Scenario 2: Banks Island Grounding Another concern is a spill in Principle Channel due to the narrowness of the channel. The second scenario is in winter, where a tanker drifts from the center of the channel. Considering simple vessel drift of 10% wind speed with the winds and currents at midday on February 11, 2007, grounding could occur in less than an hour on Banks Island. A catastrophic release would likely stay on Banks Island until the winds began to shift on February 13th, which leads to oil reaching McCauley Island and then the Dolphin Island vicinity by February 14th. Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 79 Table 5: Sunrise Sunset Calculations Date Sunrise (PST) Sunset (PST) 2/11/2007 17:44 2/12/2007 08:08 17:46 2/13/2007 08:05 17:48 2/14/2007 08:03 17:50 2/15/2007 08:01 17:52 2/16/2007 07:59 17:54 (Source: NOAA Sunrise/Sunset calculator) Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 80 Figure 36: Wind Speed for Feb 11-20, 2007 Figure 37: Wind Direction for Feb 11-20, 2007. Winds begin with a component from the north, and then shifts through a variety of directions, leading to surface oil movement in a variety of directions and contacting different coastlines. Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 81 Figure 38: Average April ocean temperature profile (Locarnini et al., 2006 and Antonov et al., 2005) Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 82 Figure 39: February average salinity profile Locarnini et al. (2006) and Antonov et al., (2005) 6.7 Critique of the Application 6.7.1 The Proponent’s application does not contain sufficient information that can be used to model all the products proposed, nor to provide quantitative analysis of potential resource impact. A more complete analysis of potential impact to natural resources of interest to Gitxaala could be obtained by adding spatial natural resource information to this TAP II implementation, if all relevant information were provided by the Proponent. This would allow Gitxaala to better evaluate their some of their concerns quantitatively 6.7.2 The analyses presented within this chapter leveraged established methodologies in the form of statistical trajectory analysis to provide initial information on potential trajectories of spills in the area of interest. These methodologies are not overly burdensome. model do take time, but the subsequent trajectory analyses is straight forward. For example, the 23,000 trajectory model runs (23 spill start sites with trajectories run for 250 random start times within each season between 2001-2010) and construction of the TAP II statistical analysis was run in less than Expert Opinion December 2011 Gitxaala First Nation Page 83 3 days on an off-the-shelf personal computer. Development of more detailed historical wind fields and current fields can be accomplished given time and budget. Development of operational (24x7) ocean current and wind nowcast/forecast capability would provide development of more detailed historical surface and subsurface current fields for future analyses, provide operational spill modeling capability, and, potentially, provide environmental fields that could be leveraged into other important activities, such as computer modeling for search-and-rescue at sea. 6.7.3 The Proponent’s application does not contain information that allows an adequate statistical analysis of risk to natural resources of concern to Gitxaala. A more complete analysis could be provided with the addition of the following types of information from the Proponent: 1. Testing of the proposed synthetic crude to allow accurate modeling of the fate and transport. Coastal British Columbia waters are influenced both by seasonal freshwater inputs and more saline oceanic waters. Laboratory studies regarding behaviour of the synthetic crude in a two-layer water system. Laboratory studies that place the product into a tank with a simple two-layer system with fresh water overlaying more saline water would allow determination of whether the separated product could potentially: i. remain at the surface, ii. sink to a specific oceanic density level and be transported along this density surface, or iii. sink to the bottom, An example spill from one of the Proponent’s pipelines into a freshwater system (river) is the Proponent’s oil spill into the Kalalmazoo River in 2010 (http://www.epa.gov/enbridgespill/ accessed December 20th, 2010). This spill indicates that this product separates with the heavier portion sinking in fresh water, and the lighter product rising to the surface. How the product will behave in coastal waters has not been put forward. 2. Coastal resource data collected by Polaris is viewed as proprietary, and thus not available for use in this assessment (Proponent’s response to IR 2.2).These data could be used with the Hecate Strait TAP II implementation to provide quantitative statistical analysis of potential product contact with natural resources within Gitxaala traditional territories. Though the Proponent has indicated that updated coastal sensitivity atlases would be finalized prior to commencement of operations (response to IR 2.2.3), this timeline did not allow the information to be used in this TAP II analysis with the statistical spill trajectories developed in order to quantify lengths of sensitive shorelines that could be impacted by potentially spilled product.