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June 1, 2021 Thai Enquirer Summary Economic News

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June 1, 2021 Thai Enquirer Summary Economic News June 1, 2021 Thai Enquirer Summary Economic News Although the vaccine and the outbreak of the 3rd wave of the virus is the big news, the biggest news yesterday was not the number of cases reported or the ongoing drama of Bhumjai Thai party and its threat of walking out on the coalition, but the fact that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) coming out to say that the economy is not likely to recover until Q1 2023 as the country has too much reliance on the tourism sector. The Central Bank admitted that the severity of the 3rd wave of the outbreak which has yet to be contained will cause a delay to the planning reopening of the country and may send an economic recovery to be slower than expected. During a webinar hosted by the BoT, the Thai Bankers Association and the Mall Group, BoT Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said the economic recovery is expected to take time, with the 3rd wave and the vaccine rollout highly uncertain. He said it may have to wait until the 1st quarter of 2023 to get back to pre-Covid levels. One needs to remember that pre-Covid was not the best time for the economy either. In March, the central bank said the economy might return to that level in the middle of 2022. As the recovery will be slow, there is need to move quickly to resolve liquidity problems facing smaller businesses, Sethaput said. Chayawadee Chai-Anant, BoT’s senior director at the economic and policy department, warned that it could take until the 1st quarter of 2023 to return to a normal position due to the 3rd wave of coronavirus infections and uncertainty over its vaccine rollout. The BoT is planning to revise its economic forecast in June 2021 as it said there are many factors to consider. The BoT’s current GDP growth forecast is 3.0% this year and 4.7% next year. It is due to release new projections at its next policy review on June 23. This grim outlook did not dampen the equity market’s sentiments as the SET Index continued its rise by 11.61 points to end the day at 1,593.59 points A grim economic outlook usually means that the markets should go down, especially with little spending power left with the government when it comes to fiscal stimulus measures that have prompted other markets to remains buoyant. To offset the deep economic impact that the Bank of Thailand said needs more funds and support, the cabinet will today consider a raft of relief measures in the 2nd phase, effective from July to December 2021, to boost domestic consumption. The fresh measures are worth a combined 140 billion baht, which will be tabled at today’s cabinet meeting including: The 3rd phase of the government’s half-half co-payment or “Khon La Khrueng” subsidy scheme. The “Ying Chai Ying Dai” scheme offers cashback e-vouchers to people to encourage them to purchase food, products and services through the government’s e-wallet. Under the scheme, participants will receive cashback in their e-wallets at a rate of 10-15% of spending, with a maximum limit of 7,000 baht per person. Additional cash handouts of 200 baht per person for 6 months from July to December. Around 13.65 million low-income earners who hold state welfare cards are eligible for the handouts. Cash handouts of 200 baht per person for the same period for 2.5 million vulnerable people who need special assistance. Farmer debt has increased amid the pandemic as many are struggling to pay back loans, with older farmers shouldering higher debts, says the National Credit Bureau (NCB). In the first quarter of 2020 -- when the pandemic emerged in Thailand -- total loans outstanding for farmers from NCB member financial institutions rose to 928 billion baht from 479 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. Loans to farmers continued to increase throughout 2020, rising from 932 billion baht in the second quarter to 942 billion in the third quarter and to 949 billion in the fourth quarter, according to NCB data. Surapol Opasatien, chief executive at NCB, said outstanding loans for farmers continue to increase partly due to accumulated outstanding debts they have been unable to repay. Phuket is set to welcome a group of vaccinated visitors from the U.S. this month, Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) Governor Yuthasak Supasorn announced. Yuthasak said the TAT is discussing with the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta) about the reopening of Phuket under the Phuket sandbox scheme to welcome on July 9 a group of 20 visitors from the U.S. who have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19. Under the scheme, vaccinated foreign visitors are not required to go through a compulsory quarantine from July 1, Yuthasak said, adding that CNN will report on Thailand’s reopening plan. He said an official announcement of the Phuket sandbox model in the Royal Gazette will take place around mid-June after receiving approval from the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) and the cabinet. The TAT is committed to its target of 3-4 million international arrivals this year, which is possible, Yuthasak said in an online seminar held by the ATTA. Reports have come out that the Ministry of Interior will today propose a 30-year concession extension on the BTS Green Line which is set to expire in 2029 to the cabinet for consideration. It will be interesting to see if Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha and his cabinet ministers will proceed with the Interior Ministry’s proposal amid strong opposition from various parties. A taxi driver committed suicide on Rama VII bridge by jumping into the river, as he was stressed as there were no customers, and he could not pay for anything. Covid-19 News 2014 coup leader and incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has come out to assure that there will be enough vaccines during this month. Gen. Prayut made the comments after intense criticism of him in the parliament today for his and his government’s handling of the Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand. Gen. Prayut said that there were no reports that suggested that the vaccines will not come. To help Gen. Prayut is the fact that reports emerged that as many as 14 batches of AstraZeneca from Siam BioScience has been approved for use and distribution. He said that vaccines would be available on June 7th (but did not say how many doses). Siam BioScience has been at the centre of all conversations on whether it will be able to deliver the doses as promised or not (6.5 million doses in the month of June) and then 10 million doses each month thereafter. So far SinoVac - 6 million doses have been ordered 4 million have been used and 2 million remain Another 3 million has been ordered AstraZeneca - 117,000 were imported from South Korea Another 6 million is expected in June Then 10 million each month going forward Today’s new infection numbers were down sharply but not below the 2,000 mark yet. New Infections - 2,230 Community Infection - 2,153 Prison Infection - 77 Total New Death - 38 Total New Discharged - 3,390 Meanwhile, the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) has reversed a decision by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) to ease restrictions on 5 types of business from June 1, 2021. The BMA said late evening that the CCSA had overruled its decision to allow massage parlours, clinics and public parks to resume business for at least 14 more days. The CCSA yesterday overruled a plan by the Bangkok Governor to ease some pandemic restrictions in the capital, including the reopening of parks. The plan, which was to take effect from today, will be postponed 14 days. The BMA’s Communicable Diseases Committee said that there are no new cases recently reported in these businesses and venues, adding that the reopening was aimed to relieve burdens on business by enabling them to operate under strict conditions. Meanwhile, Bangkok yesterday detected 2 new clusters, a residential camp for construction workers in Bang Na district and a community in Sathon district, taking the total Bangkok clusters under close surveillance to 45. Bangkok topped 10 provinces with the highest infections in the country (1,356), followed by Petchaburi (555), Samut Prakan (358), Saraburi (327) and Pathum Thani (211), Nonthburi (90), Trang (76), Chon Buri (62) and Chachoengsao (62). Bangkok’s various district’s infections Udonthani sees 4 new cases of B 1617.2 strain or the strain 1st discovered in India. The 4 people who were infected were working in construction site in Laksi (Bangkok) and had managed to get out of the camp to go to Udonthani, despite the so called lockdown of the camp site. Saraburi health officials has come up with the plan to convert a poultry farm to a 400-bed field hospital to accommodate rising numbers of infected patients in the province after more than 390 employees of Charoen Pokphand Foods Plc (CPF) tested positive for the virus. Dr Thanawat Wongphan, deputy chief of the Saraburi public health office, said tests were conducted on workers and the number of infected workers will be identified today. Political News The big news in the political arena was the statement made by Bhumjai Thai party’s deputy leader – Chada Thaiset after he was upset by the budget cut at both ministries controlled by Bhumjai Thai party. The outspoken and maverick politician from Uthai Thani, Chada said in the parliament that he was surprised to see the budget for Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) being cut.
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