APRIL 2020 Pathways to Peace: Achieving the Stable Transformation of the Korean Peninsula EDITED BY DR. PATRICK M. CRONIN ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY CHAIR, HUDSON INSTITUTE © 2020 Hudson Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. For more information about obtaining additional copies of this or other Hudson Institute publications, please visit Hudson’s website, www.hudson.org ABOUT HUDSON INSTITUTE Hudson Institute is a research organization promoting American leadership and global engagement for a secure, free, and prosperous future. Founded in 1961 by strategist Herman Kahn, Hudson Institute challenges conventional thinking and helps manage strategic transitions to the future through interdisciplinary studies in defense, international relations, economics, health care, technology, culture, and law. Hudson seeks to guide public policy makers and global leaders in government and business through a vigorous program of publications, conferences, policy briefings and recommendations. Visit www.hudson.org for more information. Hudson Institute would like to thank the Korea Foundation for its support of this research and publication. In addition to all the contributors, several people made vital contributions to this volume. Hudson Research Associate Ryan Neuhard assisted with various aspects of this project. Publications Director Carolyn Stewart oversaw the transformation of the draft manuscript into a polished, finished publication. As an essential part of that process, Miriam Himmelfarb improved the written product through her careful reading of every essay. Hudson Institute 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Fourth Floor Washington, D.C. 20004 +1.202.974.2400 [email protected] www.hudson.org Cover: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in talk in private during the Inter-Korean Summit on April 27, 2018 in Panmunjom, South Korea. Kim and Moon met at the border for the third-ever Inter-Korean summit talks after the 1945 division of the peninsula, and first since 2007 between then President Roh Moo-hyun of South Korea and Leader Kim Jong-il of North Korea. (Inter Korean Press Corp/NurPhoto via Getty Images) APRIL 2020 Pathways to Peace: Achieving the Stable Transformation of the Korean Peninsula EDITED BY DR. PATRICK M. CRONIN ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY CHAIR, HUDSON INSTITUTE TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Contributors 7 Introduction: Peaceful Change on the Korean Peninsula? Patrick M. Cronin 10 I. Reversing Kim Jong-un’s Nuclear Program Reducing the Nuclear Threat: A US View Bruce Klingner 17 Calculating Pyongyang’s Next Steps and Coordinating a Response: A South Korean View Jina Kim 25 II. Dealing with North Korea’s Chronic Underdevelpment Sustainable Economic Development in North Korea Young-kwan Yoon 34 Economic Engagement with North Korea Post-Denuclearization Troy Stangarone 41 III. Preserving an Alliance in Flux Preserving the ROK-US Alliance In-bum Chun 53 The ROK-US Alliance: One American’s Perspective Now and for the Future David S. Maxwell 61 IV. China’s Long Shadow Over the Penninsula The US, South Korea, and China: Trilateral Dynamics and the North Korean Nuclear Challenge Patricia M. Kim 72 China-North Korea Ties: Back to “Lips and Teeth”? Seong-hyon Lee 79 Endnotes 87 PATHWAYS TO PEACE: ACHIEVING THE STABLE TRANSFORMATION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS Lt. Gen. In-bum Chun, ROK Army (Ret.), graduated from 2018); Breakthrough on the Peninsula: Third Offset Strategies the Korea Military Academy. He commanded the ROK Special and the Future Defense of Korea (Editor and Co-author) (CNAS, Forces and retired in 2016 with the rank of lieutenant general. 2016); Solving Long Division: The Geopolitical Implications of Chun studied at the US Armed Forces Staff College in Norfolk, Korean Unification(Co-author) (CNAS, 2015); If Deterrence Fails: Virginia, as well as the US Army War College in Carlisle, Rethinking Conflict on the Korean Peninsula(CNAS, 2014); Vital Pennsylvania, where he received a master’s degree in military Venture: The Economic Engagement of North Korea and the strategy. Dr. Chun holds a PhD in political science from Korea’s Kaesong Industrial Complex (CNAS, 2012); Pressure: Coercive Kyungnam University. He served as a fellow with the Brookings Economic Statecraft and US National Security (Co-author) Institution, the US-Korea Institute (USKI) at the Johns Hopkins (CNAS, 2011); and Double Trouble: International Security and University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and the Challenge of Iran and North Korea (Editor and Contributing the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Author) (Praeger International Security, 2007). Institute of Technology. Lt. Gen. Chun is the most highly decorated Korean officer since the Vietnam War, with a US Dr. Jina Kim is a research fellow and chief of the North Korean Bronze Star, three Legion of Merit medals, and a US Special Military Research Division at the Korea Institute for Defense Operations Command (USSOCOM) medal. He is the only Analyses (KIDA). She is also an adjunct professor at Yonsei Korean to be awarded the USSOCOM honor. Graduate School of International Studies. Dr. Kim specializes in US-North Korea relations and nuclear non-proliferation. She Dr. Patrick M. Cronin holds the Chair for Asia-Pacific Security serves on the Advisory Committee for the Blue House National at Hudson Institute. Before joining Hudson in January 2019, he Security Office and US-ROK Combined Forces Command, and was the senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at she is on the Policy Review Committee for the Ministry of Foreign the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Previously, he Affairs. Dr. Kim holds a PhD in International Relations from the headed the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. National Defense University, where he also oversaw the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs. Before leading INSS, Dr. Dr. Patricia M. Kim is a senior policy analyst with the China Cronin served as the director of studies at the London-based Program at the US Institute of Peace. Her areas of expertise International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS); senior vice include Chinese foreign policy, US-China relations, and East Asian president and director of research at the Center for Strategic security issues. Dr. Kim’s writing appears in publications such and International Studies (CSIS); the third-highest-ranking as Foreign Affairs, International Security, and The Washington official at the US Agency for International Development (USAID); Post. She has held positions as the Stanton Nuclear Security the director of research at the US Institute of Peace; and an Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, International Security intelligence officer in the US Navy Reserve. Dr. Cronin is the Program Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of author of many publications on the United States and Asian Government’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, security. He is a regular columnist for Dong-A Ilbo, and among and Postdoctoral Fellow at Princeton University’s Princeton- his major works related to Korea are The Cornerstone and Harvard China and the World Program. She received her PhD the Linchpin: Securing America’s Alliances in Northeast Asia from the Department of Politics at Princeton University. (Hudson Institute, 2019); Negotiating with North Korea: How Will This End? (Co-author) (CNAS, 2019); A Precarious Accord: Bruce Klingner is senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at Navigating the Post-Summit Landscape (Co-author) (CNAS, the Heritage Foundation. He previously served twenty years with PATHWAYS TO PEACE: ACHIEVING THE STABLE TRANSFORMATION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Army, retiring in 2011 as a Special Forces Colonel. His final Agency. He was CIA’s deputy division chief for Korea, responsible assignment was serving on the military faculty teaching national for the analysis of political, military, economic, and leadership security strategy at the National War College. He served five issues for the president of the United States and other senior tours in Korea, including with the Second Infantry Division, and US policymakers. Before that, he was the chief of the CIA’s on the United Nations Command / Combined Forces Command Korea branch, which analyzed military developments during a / United States Forces Korea CJ3 staff. He was a planner for nuclear crisis with North Korea. Klingner has testified before the UNC/CFC OPLAN 5027-98 and co-author of the original ROK Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the House Foreign Affairs JCS – UNC/CFC CONPLAN 5029-99 (North Korean Instability Committee, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and and Collapse). He later served as the director of Plans, Policy, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He is and Strategy (J5) and the chief of staff for Special Operations a distinguished graduate of the National War College, where Command Korea (SOCKOR). He is a fellow at the Institute of he received a master’s degree in national security strategy in Korean-American Studies (ICAS) and on the Board of Advisors 2002. He also holds a master’s degree in strategic intelligence for Spirit of America. He is a member of the Board of Directors from the Defense Intelligence College and a bachelor’s degree of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), in political science from Middlebury College in Vermont. the International Council of Korean Studies (ICKS), the Council of US Korean Security Studies (CUSKOSS), the Special Dr. Seong-hyon Lee is the director of the Center for Chinese Operations Research Association, the Small Wars Journal, and Studies at the Sejong Institute in Seoul. Previously, he was the OSS Society. director of the Department of Unification Studies Sejong. He lived in Beijing for eleven years. He is a graduate of Grinnell Troy Stangarone is senior director and fellow at the Korea College, Harvard University, and Tsinghua University, and he Economic Institute of America (KEI).