5 January 2017 Asia Pacific/Taiwan Equity Research Semiconductor Devices Asia Semiconductor Sector Research Analysts THEME Randy Abrams, CFA 886 2 2715 6366
[email protected] Mature volumes, but still maturing content Jerry Su 886 2 2715 6361 drivers
[email protected] Sam Li Figure 1: CS smartphone estimates—high single-digit growth in 2017/18 852 2101 6775 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
[email protected] New Estimate 1,019,432 1,303,395 1,437,414 1,457,378 1,555,406 1,681,478 Kyna Wong YoY 41% 28% 10% 1% 7% 8% 852 2101 6950 Old Estimate 1,019,432 1,303,395 1,438,029 1,503,503 1,559,379 1,614,111
[email protected] YoY 41% 28% 10% 5% 4% 4% Haas Liu Revision (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.1% -0.3% 4.2% 886 2 2715 6365
[email protected] Source: Credit Suisse estimates ■ 2017 could see mild units and some ASP stabilisation. Our global hardware team in its annual wireless preview on 6 Dec 2016 adjusted 2016 down from +5% to +1% (based on IDC's actuals through 3Q16), but off a lower base increased 2017/18 growth from +4%/4% to 7%/8% YoY to reflect the rebound from Apple's iPhone 8 in 2H17 and some upgrade demand in emerging markets. Smartphone revenue is projected to grow 1%/5% YoY in 2017/2018 as ASP declines moderate from -7% YoY toward -3% YoY by 2018.