Asia Semiconductor Sector
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5 January 2017 Asia Pacific/Taiwan Equity Research Semiconductor Devices Asia Semiconductor Sector Research Analysts THEME Randy Abrams, CFA 886 2 2715 6366 [email protected] Mature volumes, but still maturing content Jerry Su 886 2 2715 6361 drivers [email protected] Sam Li Figure 1: CS smartphone estimates—high single-digit growth in 2017/18 852 2101 6775 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E [email protected] New Estimate 1,019,432 1,303,395 1,437,414 1,457,378 1,555,406 1,681,478 Kyna Wong YoY 41% 28% 10% 1% 7% 8% 852 2101 6950 Old Estimate 1,019,432 1,303,395 1,438,029 1,503,503 1,559,379 1,614,111 [email protected] YoY 41% 28% 10% 5% 4% 4% Haas Liu Revision (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.1% -0.3% 4.2% 886 2 2715 6365 [email protected] Source: Credit Suisse estimates ■ 2017 could see mild units and some ASP stabilisation. Our global hardware team in its annual wireless preview on 6 Dec 2016 adjusted 2016 down from +5% to +1% (based on IDC's actuals through 3Q16), but off a lower base increased 2017/18 growth from +4%/4% to 7%/8% YoY to reflect the rebound from Apple's iPhone 8 in 2H17 and some upgrade demand in emerging markets. Smartphone revenue is projected to grow 1%/5% YoY in 2017/2018 as ASP declines moderate from -7% YoY toward -3% YoY by 2018. ■ Content and spec upgrades offer some upside in a slow growth market. Despite only mild smartphone unit growth, the leaders in the tech supply chain should continue to benefit from the continued innovation in handsets through spec upgrade. We expect key content drivers in 2017 to include: fingerprint sensor (non-Apple rising from 30% to 47%), OLED display (rising from 21% to 26%), dual camera (vendors seeing orders for 20-25%, though CS at 10-15% based on supply constraints), USB Type-C, continued memory capacity growth and CAT 7+ modem upgrades in China. ■ Competitive pressure persists in mobile processors. We stay conservative on Mediatek as market share gains reverse and units slow from high 2016 rates. We expect Mediatek to track the low-end of 4Q16 guidance and lower 1Q17 sales from -2% QoQ to -12% QoQ off the lower base. Margins may stabilise but cost improvement needs to wait until 2H17. We maintain NEUTRAL and our NT$225 target price is based on 14x 2017E EPS of $16. ■ Some opportunities still in Foundry, RF and components. We are still conservative on the smartphone opportunity but see investment opportunities where content gains continue and margins are protected by innovation and competitive advantage. Our top picks in the chain include: (1) foundry (TSMC, Win Semi), (2) back-end (Powertech, Chipbond), (3) IC design (Egis, FocalTech), (4) components (Sunny Optical, Lens Tech and AAC Acoustics). DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 5 January 2017 Focus tables and charts Figure 2: Summary of Credit Suisse's smartphones estimates (in millions, unless otherwise stated) CS Global Model 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 16-18 CAGR 12-15 CAGR Mobile subscribers 6,155 6,545 6,890 7,215 7,538 7,861 8,141 3.9% 5.4% Smartphone subscribers 1,191 1,836 2,593 3,321 3,838 4,370 4,862 12.5% 40.8% % penetration 19.3% 28.1% 37.6% 46.0% 50.9% 55.6% 59.7% 55.4% 32.8% Net additions 430 645 757 729 517 531 493 Replacements 295 374 547 709 940 1,024 1,189 12.5% 33.9% Replacement rate 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.7 Smartphone units 725 1,019 1,303 1,437 1,457 1,555 1,681 7.4% 25.6% YoY 46.7% 40.5% 27.9% 10.3% 1.4% 6.7% 8.1% ASPs $329 $283 $249 $252 $233 $221 $215 -4.0% -8.5% YoY -8.9% -14.0% -12.1% 1.2% -7.4% -5.0% -3.0% Revenue $238.6 $288.4 $324.2 $361.7 $339.4 $344.1 $360.9 3.1% 14.9% Smartphone Revenue YoY 33.7% 20.9% 12.4% 11.6% -6.1% 1.4% 4.9% Source: Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: China 4G ramp up nearly over by late 2017 Figure 4: Non-Apple smartphone fingerprint penetration to reach 65% by 2018E China 4G subscriber base (mn) China 4G penetration 1,500 100% 1,350 90% 1,200 80% 1,050 70% 900 60% 750 50% 600 40% 450 30% 300 20% 150 10% 0 0% Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Nov-16 Sep-14 Nov-14 Sep-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Nov-17 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 Total 4G subscribers 4G penetration Source: Gartner Source: Credit Suisse estimates Figure 5: OLED penetration in global smartphones Figure 6: China has gained, but watch iPhone in 2H (mn unit) Units: mn YoY (%) 1,800 35% 150 225% 1,750 135 200% 30% 120 175% 1,700 25% 105 150% 1,650 90 125% 1,600 20% 75 100% 1,550 15% 60 75% 1,500 45 50% 10% 30 25% 1,450 5% 15 0% 1,400 - -25% 1Q12 1Q16 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2Q16 3Q16 1,350 0% 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Total units (lhs) OLED penetration rate China ex-AAPL/SEC Samsung units Apple units YoY Ex-AAPL/SEC YoY Source: Gartner Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 7: Helio declines in 4Q on a shift to exports Figure 8: Mediatek's stock pressured by lower GMs Mediatek Stock GM / OpMs (%) Revenue (NT$bn) Helio % of Mediatek sales $50 40% Price (NT$) $700 70% $45 35% $40 $600 60% 30% $35 $500 50% 25% $30 $400 40% $25 20% $300 30% $20 15% $200 20% $15 10% $100 10% $10 $5 5% $0 0% $0 0% 2Q02 1Q15 1Q03 4Q03 3Q04 2Q05 1Q06 4Q06 3Q07 2Q08 1Q09 4Q09 3Q10 2Q11 1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 4Q15 3Q16 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16E 4Q16E 3Q01 3G 4G Mainstream 4G Helio 4G Helio Share price Corporate GM % Corporate OpM % Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Qorvo, Credit Suisse Asia Semiconductor Sector 2 5 January 2017 China smartphone supply chain valuation Figure 9: Valuation summary of Credit Suisse's smartphone supply chain coverage (in millions, unless otherwise stated) Price Target Investment Target Mkt Cap EV/Sales (x) P/E Multiple (x) P/B Multiple (x) ROE Trough/Peak (EV/Sales) Company Ticker 1/3/2017 Local Curcy Rating Upside (US$mn) 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 Fabless MediaTek 2454.TW 218.0 225.0 Neutral 3% $10,588 0.9 0.7 0.6 13.0 15.0 13.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 10.8 9.1 9.7 Qualcomm QCOM 65.4 NA Restricted NA $96,588 4.0 4.4 4.3 14.0 15.2 12.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 24.3 21.7 25.2 Realtek 2379.TW 100.5 133.5 Outperform 33% $1,572 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 20.9 15.7 12.0 2.3 2.3 2.1 10.9 14.8 17.9 Novatek 3034.TW 107.0 131.0 Outperform 22% $2,027 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 10.2 13.3 11.5 2.3 2.9 2.7 22.6 21.9 23.7 Focaltech 3545.TW 35.8 45.0 Outperform 26% $323 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 44.4 63.2 12.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 2.1 1.5 7.5 Himax HIMX 6.2 12.0 Outperform 93% $1,069 1.5 1.3 1.3 42.5 16.9 14.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 5.6 13.2 15.0 Elan 2458.TW 35.0 31.0 Underperform -11% $465 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 18.7 18.9 16.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 12.9 Egistec 6462.TWO 253.5 300.0 Outperform 18% $513 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 NA 135.2 12.7 12.9 11.6 6.1 -6.7 8.6 47.6 Foundry TSMC 2330.TW 183.0 205.0 Outperform 12% $147,019 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 16.5 14.5 13.5 3.9 3.4 3.1 23.5 23.8 22.8 UMC 2303.TW 11.4 13.0 Neutral 14% $4,439 0.8 0.9 0.9 10.6 15.5 16.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 5.9 4.1 3.9 SMIC 0981.HK 11.6 10.9 Neutral -6% $6,374 2.7 2.4 2.2 22.6 16.1 16.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 7.6 9.6 8.5 Hua Hong 1347.HK 8.7 11.0 Outperform 26% $1,147 1.3 1.3 1.1 10.3 9.7 10.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 7.5 7.8 7.3 Win Semi 3105.TWO 89.5 103.7 Outperform 16% $1,129 3.0 2.8 2.3 13.8 11.8 11.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 15.5 17.5 17.2 IDM Intel INTC 36.6 40.0 Outperform 9% $173,447 3.0 3.0 2.8 15.7 13.8 12.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 18.4 19.5 18.4 Samsung 005930.KS 1824000.0 2400000.0 Outperform 32% $210,902 1.2 1.2 1.0 13.9 11.9 8.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 10.0 10.4 12.6 Back-end packaging Amkor AMKR 10.7 8.5 Neutral -20% $2,531 1.2 0.9 0.8 43.9 19.5 16.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 4.8 9.4 10.1 Chipbond 6147.TWO 46.8 55.0 Outperform 18% $939 2.1 1.8 1.6 14.7 15.9 11.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 8.8 8.1 10.2 Panel AUO 2409.TW 12.0 16.0 Outperform 33% $3,563 0.4 0.6 0.5 23.4 26.1 8.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.7 2.5 6.9 Innolux 3481.TW 12.1 15.0 Outperform 24% $3,746 0.4 0.5 0.4 11.1 N/A 6.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.7 -1.4 7.5 LG Display 034220.KS 31750.0 25800.0 Neutral -19% $9,331 0.5 0.5 0.5 12.0 28.2 21.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 7.6 3.4 4.7 Japan Display 6740.T 333.0 220.0 Neutral -34% $1,797 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A -11.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 -3.0 -8.3 -2.9 Sharp 6753.T 270.0 120.0 Underperform -56% $12,336 0.8 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A -34.3 2.4 15.2 -10.6 -197.4 -299.7 -34.8 Smartphone brands Coolpad 2369.HK 0.8 0.6 Underperform -24% $513 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A -6.5 -18.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 -4.5 -11.2 -4.2 ZTE 0763.HK 12.9 12.7 Neutral -2% $9,724 0.8 0.7 0.5 16.7 14.2 13.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 10.8 11.7 11.6 Lenovo 0992.HK 4.8 7.0 Outperform 46% $7,013 0.2 0.2 0.2 8.0 N/A 12.4 1.6 2.3 2.5 20.3 -4.0 20.3 Smartphone components Largan 3008.TW 3795.0 4100.0 Outperform 8% $15,709 8.3 9.6 7.1 21.1 22.1 16.0 8.0 7.4 5.5 38.1 33.4 34.4 Catcher 2474.TW 225.5 295.0 Outperform 31% $5,305 1.6 1.8 1.3 6.9 9.2 8.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 21.7 16.3 15.7 AAC 2018.HK 70.6 86.9 Outperform 23% $2,437 6.6 5.2 4.1 27.9 22.2 17.5 7.7 6.3 5.2 27.5 28.5 29.7 VPEC 2455.TW 48.5 46.5 Neutral -4% $278 3.1 3.8 3.3 15.1 17.6 15.7 2.5 4.9 4.8 16.5 27.9 30.7 TXC 3042.TW 40.8 45.0 Neutral 10% $390 1.2 1.2 1.0 13.5 12.5 11.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 8.7 9.7 10.4 Merry 2439.TW 122.5 120.0 Neutral -2% $700 1.7 1.3 1.1 35.3 16.5 15.0 3.9 3.7 3.4 11.0 22.6