Torghatten Buy
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Industrials Company Report Norway 22 January 2018 Torghatten Buy Key Data Share price (NOK) 85.75 Fasten seat belt while seated Target price (NOK) 115.00 A wise man once said: “70% of future financial performance is explained by historical financial performance”. And, we don’t disagree. Indeed, our long-term investment case in Bloomberg TORG NO TORG is based on three simple arguments. First, TORG has evidenced a solid track record Market capitalisation (NOKm) 4,124m of profitable growth for more than a decade. Second, the company has been able to Enterprise value (NOKm) 6,642m improve its position in both the Air-, Ferry- and Bus segment and is currently positioned as the leading (top 1-3) player in all segments. Third, we find valuation attractive at 4.5x and Shares outstanding (m) 48m 9.2x current 2018e EV/EBITDA and P/E, respectively, and hence, we see solid upside Shares fully diluted (m) 48m Average daily volume (000s) 50.0 potential in underlying values. Thus, based on these arguments coupled with a 2017e- Free float (%) 47.1 2018e EPS, which is upped 6% and 9%, respectively, we reiterate our Buy recommendation but increase our target price from NOK88 to NOK115. Our tp correspond to 6x and 5.5x 2018e and 2019e EV/EBITDA, respectively and 2018e P/E of 12.3x and 2019e P/E of 10x. Evidenced profitable growth for more than a decade Since the ‘90s, competition in the public transportation sector intensified with entry Share Price (12m) of public tenders and Torghatten has grown rapidly at a 20% CAGR to the ~NOK9.4bn 88 turnover transportation giant it is today and averaged 18% ROE at the same time. 86 84 Improved its position in all key segments 82 Torghatten has won two significant ferry contracts from its rivals with start-up in 2019, 80 has moved from #3 position to #2 position in the bus segment and Widerøe won all 13 78 public service obligations contracts for ’19-’26 at a revenue potential of ~NOK5bn. 76 74 We see solid upside in underlying values 24/11/16 24/2/17 24/5/17 24/8/17 TORG NO Our updated SOTP arrive at a fair price per TORG share of +NOK115, up from NOK88 in our latest update. The deviation is driven by 1) overall positive EBITDA and EPS Share Price Performance estimate revisions (NOK8), 2) multiple expansion in both the bus and airline business 1m 6m 12m segment (NOK17) and 3) NOK2 per share increase in TORG’s ~11% stake in NTS ASA. Price n/a n/a n/a Our valuation implies a 2018E EV/EBITDA of 6x, EV/EBIT 11x, and P/E of 12x. Rel. Index n/a n/a n/a Company Overview Year end: Dec 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Total Revenues (m) 8,574 9,386 9,896 10,279 11,015 11,262 EBITDA (m) 1,195 1,345 1,325 1,543 1,705 1,803 EBIT (m) 548 733 666 844 958 997 Net profit (m) 304 347 371 476 552 594 DPS (NOK) 4.2 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.5 Balance Sheet Equity excl. minority (m) 1,558 1,954 2,225 2,606 3,039 3,672 GIBD (m) 3,580 3,319 2,959 3,168 2,673 2,261 NIBD (m) 2,567 2,151 1,744 1,610 989 129 WC 295 367 346 360 386 394 Analysts Margins & Profitability Lars-Daniel Westby EBITDA margin (%) 13.9% 14.3% 13.4% 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% +47 24 14 74 16 EBIT margin (%) 6.4% 7.8% 6.7% 8.2% 8.7% 8.9% Profit margin (%) 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 4.6% 5.0% 5.3% [email protected] ROE rep. (%) 19.6% 19.9% 16.3% 19.6% 19.7% 18.2% ROCE (%) 9.2% 12.0% 10.9% 13.2% 14.4% 14.8% Petter Kongslie Sales Growth (%) 4.7% 9.5% 5.4% 3.9% 7.2% 2.2% +47 24 14 74 96 EBIT growth (%) 18.5% 33.8% -9.1% 26.7% 13.5% 4.1% [email protected] Valuation EV/Sales (x) 1.04 0.95 0.90 0.86 0.81 0.79 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 6.6 6.7 5.8 5.2 4.9 EV/EBIT (x) 16.2 12.1 13.3 10.5 9.3 8.9 P/E (x) 18.2 15.9 14.9 11.6 10.0 9.3 P/B (x) 3.5 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.5 Important: All disclosure information can be found on page 39 of this document. Torghatten Company Report 22 January 2018 Investment Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Company Overview ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 TORG Sea Transportation .......................................................................................................................................... 10 Bastø Fosen .................................................................................................................................................... 10 FosenNamsos Sjø ............................................................................................................................................ 10 Torghatten Trafikkselskap ............................................................................................................................... 11 Torghatten Nord ............................................................................................................................................. 11 Contract vs ticket revenues ............................................................................................................................. 11 The Norwegian ferry market ..................................................................................................................................... 12 130 connections in total, served by ~220 ferries ............................................................................................. 12 Consolidated market ....................................................................................................................................... 13 Costs follow inflation ...................................................................................................................................... 14 Contractual structure… ................................................................................................................................... 15 …coupled with the green shift… ...................................................................................................................... 15 …drives capex in the ferry industry ................................................................................................................. 15 Ferries will remain critical to Norwegian infrastructure .................................................................................. 16 TORG sea estimates ........................................................................................................................................ 17 TORG sea valuation ......................................................................................................................................... 18 TORG Air Transportation ........................................................................................................................................... 19 Widerøe .......................................................................................................................................................... 19 No losses since 1999 in Widerøe ..................................................................................................................... 20 Majority of fleet dedicated to Norwegian short-runway network................................................................... 21 Fleet and SCAT-1 key to Widerøe's competitiveness....................................................................................... 21 Lifetime extension program helps delay full Q100 phase-out to 2023 ............................................................ 22 The Norwegian Airline Market .................................................................................................................................. 23 Norway airline traffic highly correlated to GDP ............................................................................................... 23 ~50% of journeys are business-related, of which half are oil-related .............................................................. 23 PMI points to a boost in production ............................................................................................................... 24 Higher ticket price, somewhat offset by increased oil price ............................................................................ 24 We also see a trend towards longer season .................................................................................................... 25 Annual passenger growth on routes expected at 1.1% through 2020 ............................................................. 25 TORG air estimates ......................................................................................................................................... 26 TORG air valuation .......................................................................................................................................... 26 TORG Bus Transport .................................................................................................................................................. 28 Norgesbuss ..................................................................................................................................................... 28 Trønderbilene ................................................................................................................................................. 28 Sørlandsruta ................................................................................................................................................... 28 Torghatten Buss .............................................................................................................................................