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POP008 Topic Paper: Population

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POP008 Topic Paper: Population POP008 Belfast LOCAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2020-2035 Population Topic Paper December 2016 Executive Summary Context The purpose of the planning system is to secure the orderly and consistent development of land to facilitate sustainable patterns of growth and development whilst protecting and, where appropriate enhancing the natural and man-made environment. To achieve this aim it is essential that the development needs of society are properly identified. In order to plan for sufficient land to meet these needs, the existing population profile needs to be understood for the Belfast City Council District, alongside anticipated population trends during the Local Development Plan period. In 2014, the new Belfast City Council area had a total population of 336,830. By 2015, the population is estimated to have risen to 338,907, which is 18.3% of the NI population. It is the largest of the 11 new Local Government Districts and has over 130,000 inhabitants more than the next largest new council area, Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon. However, comparisons with 6 other similar sized cities across the UK shows that in 1950 Belfast was the second largest, but today it is the joint smallest with Newcastle upon Tyne. Whilst most cities have seen population decline during the 1960s as a result of new housing programmes, Belfast’s population declined by over 33% from 1971 to 2011, whilst the population of Northern Ireland as a whole increased by over 18%. The population of the city has seen modest increases in the last 10 years (about 1.3%), but continues to lag behind population growth in the rest of NI and, perhaps more crucially, cities such as Cardiff and Sheffield who have reversed population decline. The Regional Development Strategy (RDS) seeks to “strengthen Belfast as the regional economic driver” as one of its 8 key aims, recognising that “successful regions have strong and vibrant cities at their core” and that “Belfast drives much of the economic growth and shares its wealth across the Region”. However, population projections continue to show slow growth in Belfast’s population (only 3.3% to 2024). This will need to be accelerated if Belfast, and Northern Ireland as a whole, is to remain competitive. POP008 Evidence Base Evidence Base (Cont) Belfast had a Total Population of 336,800 in Disability and Health: 16.6% of all residents mid-2014, this is 18.3% of NI. in Belfast are in receipt of at least one Settlement Hierarchy: The district currently disability-related benefit. includes Belfast as the only City and three Religion: 48.8% of the Belfast population small settlements – Edenderry, Hannahstown belong to the Roman Catholic religion and and Loughview. 42.5% belong a ‘Protestant and Other Spatial Deprivation: Christian (including Christian related) religion. o Persistently high levels of inequality between the affluent suburbs in the South Social, Economic & Environmental Factors and East of the city and the How can the LDP help tackle social neighbourhoods in West and North deprivation and inequalities? Belfast that are the most deprived and What is the implication of the population segregated in Northern Ireland. profile in terms of the number of new houses o Around 40% of Belfast’s wards (about required? 35% of its population) have been How can the new LDP cater for the needs of consistently in Northern Ireland’s most older people, a growing proportion of deprived decile, even though the city Belfast’s population? contains only 17% of the regional How can houses be better designed for the population. needs of disabled and older people? Age Profile: Is there a need for more retirement homes, o 19.7% of the Belfast population are nursing, care homes and housing support children aged 0-15 years. service? o Older persons (i.e. 65 years and over) How will the projected decline in the made up 14.6% of the Belfast population. proportion of children under 16 years Gender and Life Expectancy: influence the demand for and provision of o The usually resident population in is childcare facilities, nursery, primary and broadly 50/50 men and women. secondary schools as well as accessibility o Life expectancy continues to improve for to community and leisure facilities? both males and females, leading to an What is the LDP’s role in helping to improve ageing population. health and well-being? Marital Status: The average household size What role can housing play in the creation has steadily declined in Belfast, driven by: a of more balanced communities and the higher proportion of single people (45.32%) creation and enhancement of shared than the NI average; a lower married spaces? proportion and a marginally higher proportion The new Local Development Plan will need are divorcees (6.17%). to have special regard to the needs and any Dependents: A lower level of households impact upon s75 groups through an Equality with dependent children than the NI average Impact Assessment. (29.74% compared with 33.85%) How will a declining household size with Racial Group and Ethnicity: 96.69% of the more single and mature single formations population of Belfast are white, but Belfast is influence the number, type and size of the most ethnically diverse council in houses needed? Northern Ireland. How does this influence where the Sexual Orientation: approximately 5-7% of development of certain house types or a the population in the UK are LGB. mix of house types will be required? Opportunities for Growth The RDS 2035 aims is to “Strengthen Is there an argument for increasing the Belfast as the regional economic driver”, growth to better reflect Belfast’s role as the recognising that “successful regions have regional capital? strong and vibrant cities at their core” and that “Belfast drives much of the economic growth and shares its wealth across the Region”. POP008 Contents 1.0 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of this document .................................................................................................... 1 Member Workshops ............................................................................................................ 1 Population Statistics and Equality Impact Assessment ........................................................ 2 2.0 Policy Context.................................................................................................................... 3 Regional Policy .................................................................................................................... 3 Local Policy Context ............................................................................................................ 4 3.0 District Profile .................................................................................................................... 7 Population of Belfast District ................................................................................................ 7 Spatial Deprivation .............................................................................................................. 7 4.0 Equality Considerations .................................................................................................. 12 (A) Age Structure ............................................................................................................... 12 (B) Gender and Life Expectancy ........................................................................................ 14 (C) Marital Status .............................................................................................................. 15 (D) Households with or without dependent children ........................................................... 17 (E) Racial Group and Ethnicity ........................................................................................... 17 (F) Sexual Orientation........................................................................................................ 18 (G) Disability and Health .................................................................................................... 19 (H) Religious Belief ............................................................................................................ 21 (I) Political Opinion ............................................................................................................ 22 5.0 Issues and Approaches .................................................................................................. 23 Summary of Key Issues ..................................................................................................... 23 A Settlement Strategy ........................................................................................................ 24 Population Change ............................................................................................................ 25 Ageing Population ............................................................................................................. 28 Community Infrastructure .................................................................................................. 28 Health and Well-being ....................................................................................................... 28 Community Cohesion ........................................................................................................ 29 Equality Impact .................................................................................................................
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