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Sharing the Dragon's Teeth THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Homeland Security View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Sharing the Dragon’s Teeth Terrorist Groups and the Exchange of New Technologies Kim Cragin, Peter Chalk, Sara A. Daly, Brian A. Jackson Prepared for the Department of Homeland Security This research was sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security and was conducted under the auspices of the Homeland Security Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Sharing the dragon’s teeth : terrorist groups and the exchange of new technologies / R. Kim Cragin ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-485.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3915-6 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorism. 2. Terrorism—Technological innovations. I. Cragin, Kim. II. Rand Corporation. HV6431.S46655 2007 363.325—dc22 2006012871 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This monograph is one component of a series of studies examining the technology competition between security organizations and terrorist organizations, a critical battleground in the war against terrorism. This series focuses on understanding how terrorist groups make technol- ogy choices and respond to the technologies deployed against them. Specifically, this book examines interactions among terrorist groups with a view toward assessing the potential for the exchange of tech- nologies and knowledge. It also addresses the question of how effective such interactions are in bolstering group capabilities and presents a framework for evaluating interactions among terrorist organizations. To conduct the study, the authors traveled to the Philippines, Singa- pore, Lebanon, Israel, and the United Kingdom. This analysis should be of interest to homeland security policymakers in that it contributes to improved threat assessment and suggests new strategies to disrupt technology exchanges among terrorist organizations. In addition, as this investigation relies, in part, on analyses of technology exchange in legitimate organizations, it offers a novel methodological approach to comparative studies of terrorist organizations. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security sponsored the research. The RAND Homeland Security Program This research was conducted under the auspices of the Homeland Secu- rity Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE). The mission of ISE is to improve the development, operation, iii iv Sharing the Dragon’s Teeth: Terrorist Groups and the Exchange of New Technologies use, and protection of society’s essential physical assets and natural resources and to enhance the related social assets of safety and secu- rity of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communi- ties. Homeland Security Program research supports the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies charged with preventing and mitigating the effects of terrorist activity within U.S. borders. Projects address critical infrastructure protection, emergency manage- ment, terrorism risk management, border control, first responders and preparedness, domestic threat assessments, domestic intelligence, and workforce and training. Questions or comments about this monograph should be sent to the project leader, Brian A. Jackson ([email protected]). Information about the Homeland Security Program is available online (http://www.rand.org/ise/security/). Inquiries about research projects should be sent to the following address: Michael Wermuth, Director Homeland Security Program, ISE RAND Corporation 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, VA 22202-5050 703-413-1100, x5414 [email protected] Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix Abbreviations .................................................................... xxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Understanding Terrorist Threats ................................................. 2 Methodology and Parameters..................................................... 5 Monograph Structure.............................................................. 9 CHAPTER TWO Organizational Theory and Terrorism.......................................11 Pursuing New Technologies .....................................................11 Technolog y Diffusion ..........................................................11 Technology Adoption ..........................................................13 Absorbing New Technologies Successfully.....................................14 Characteristics of the Technology ............................................14 Characteristics of the Receiving Organization ..............................16 Characteristics of the Source Organization..................................18 Characteristics of the Transmission Mode...................................19 Conclusions ........................................................................21 v vi Sharing the Dragon’s Teeth: Terrorist Groups and the Exchange of New Technologies CHAPTER THREE Mindanao: A Mecca for Transnational Terrorism in Southeast Asia ........... 23 Background: Islamic Militant Groups in Mindanao ........................ 24 Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) ......................................................... 24 Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) ..................................... 28 Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)..................................................... 30 Misuari Breakaway Group (MBG-MNLF) and the Rajah Soliaman Revolutionary Movement (RSRM)......................................32 Rationalizing the Exchange of Technology and Knowledge................ 34 JI Rationale ..................................................................... 34 Filipino Islamist Rationale.................................................... 36 Identifying Exchanges in Mindanao ...........................................37 Contextualizing the Exchanges ................................................ 42 Key Judgments ................................................................... 44 CHAPTER FOUR West Bank and Gaza: Israel as the Common Enemy .....................47 Background: Militant Groups in the West Bank and Gaza Strip .......... 48 Hizballah ........................................................................49 Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades......................................................53 Harakat Al-Muqawama Al-Islamiya (Hamas) ..............................55 Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) ................................................57 Rationalizing the Exchange of Technology and Knowledge.................58 Identifying Exchanges in the West Bank and Gaza ..........................59 Direct Person-to-Person Instruction......................................... 60 Physical Technology Exchanges...............................................62 Beyond Technology
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