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AGL Macquarie Generation 4 2 0 12345678910111213141516FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F AGL Energy Limited Locked Bag 1837 Level 24, 200 George St T: +61 2 9921 2999 ABN: 74 115 061 375 St Leonards NSW 2065 Sydney, NSW, 2000 F: +61 2 9921 2552 AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA www.agl.com.au ASX & Media Release AGL Investor Day 14 November 2016 AGL Energy Limited (AGL) will today host its 2016 Investor Day featuring presentations from members of AGL’s Executive Team and other members of senior management. Copies of the presentations are attached to this release and are available on AGL’s website. The Investor Day will be webcast live from approximately 12.15pm to 3:15pm and approximately 4:10pm to 5pm. You can register to view the webcast via AGL’s website at the following link: http://www.webcasts.com.au/agl141116/. A replay of the webcast will be archived on AGL’s website with the presentation materials and a transcript of the event. Further inquiries: Investors Media Nicole Rizgalla, Investor Relations Manager Kathryn Lamond, Media Manager Direct: +61 2 9921 2691 Direct: +61 2 9921 2170 Mobile: +61 400 488 836 Mobile: +61 424 465 464 email: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] About AGL AGL is one of Australia’s leading integrated energy companies. It is taking action to responsibly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions while providing secure and affordable energy to its customers. Drawing on over 175 years of experience, AGL serves its customers throughout eastern Australia with meeting their energy requirements, including gas, electricity, solar PV and related products and services. AGL has a diverse power generation portfolio including base, peaking and intermediate generation plants, spread across traditional thermal generation as well as renewable sources including hydro, wind, For personal use only solar, landfill gas and biomass. 1 14/11/2016 AGL Investor Day 2016 Disclaimer and important information The information in this presentation: - Is not an offer or recommendation to purchase or subscribe for securities in AGL Energy Limited or to retain any securities currently held; - Does not take into account the potential and current individual investment objectives or the financial situation of investors; and - Was prepared with due care and attention and is current at the date of the presentation. Actual results may materially vary from any forecasts (where applicable) in this presentation. Before making or varying any investment in securities in AGL Energy Limited, all investors should consider the appropriateness of that investment in light of their individual investment objectives and financial situation and should seek their own independent professional advice. Major expenditure remains subject to standard Board approval processes. Statutory profit and Underlying Profit Statutory profit is prepared in accordance with the Corporations Act 2001 and Australian Accounting Standards, which comply with International Financial Reporting Standards. Underlying Profit is statutory profit adjusted for significant items and changes in the fair value of financial instruments. Underlying Profit has been presented with reference to the Australian Securities & Investments Commission’s Regulatory Guide 230 “Disclosing non-IFRS financial information” issued in December 2011. AGL’s policy for reporting Underlying Profit is consistent with this guidance. The Directors have had the consistency of the application of the policy reviewed by the external auditor of AGL. For personal use only Amounts presented as statutory profit/(loss) and Underlying Profit are those amounts attributable to owners of AGL Energy Limited. 2 1 14/11/2016 Agenda Market & Operations Update 1230 Richard Wrightson, General Manager, Wholesale Markets Wholesale Electricity: Managing Volatility Doug Jackson, Executive General Manager, Group Operations Group Operations: Driving Value Strategy & Growth Update 1345 Andy Vesey, Managing Director & CEO Growth in Transition: Our Strategic Imperative Alistair Preston, Exec. General Manager, Organisational Transformation Power Shift: AGL Scenario Planning Brett Redman, CFO Agile Capital: a Growth Story Stephen Mikkelsen, Executive General Manager, Energy Markets Growth Initiatives: Break-Out Session Elisabeth Brinton, Executive General Manager, New Energy New Energy: Building the Innovation Accelerator Tim Nelson, Head of Economic Policy & Sustainability Perspectives on Policy Reform 1730 3 Wholesale Group Electricity: Operations: Managing Driving Value Volatility For personal use only 4 2 14/11/2016 Wholesale Electricity: Managing Volatility Richard Wrightson General Manager, Wholesale Markets Rising wholesale electricity market Six-month rolling average spot price ($/MWh) Forward curve prices for FY18 flat swap ($/MWh) 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 Macquarie 45 acquisition 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 New South Wales Victoria For personal use only Source: AEMO, GFI Group 6 3 14/11/2016 Renewable build tracking thermal withdrawal NEM renewable generation by state (GWh) NEM retirement/mothball of thermal generation (GWh) 30,000 30,000 25,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Pre 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NSW SA VIC QLD Coal retired Gas mothballed Coal mothballed then retired Coal pending closure Source: REC Registry, SunWiz, AEMO Gas potential closure 7 Increasing thermal fuel costs driving the market 3-month rolling avg. gas cost (AUD/MWh sent out) Black coal cost (AUD/MWh sent out) 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 ADL BRI SYD VIC For personal use only Source: AEMO, ICE Futures Europe 8 4 14/11/2016 Demand outlook appears to be improving 250,000 Electricity demand (GWh) 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Actual Forecast NSW VIC QLD SA Source: AEMO * Data is for partially complete year 9 AGL portfolio well-aligned to manage market risk 4% 2% 5% 5% 6% 10% 25% 32% 55% 55% NEM AGL Black Coal Brown Coal Gas Wind Hydro For personal use only Note: Other sources comprise 1% of NEM generation mix Source: AEMO 10 5 14/11/2016 AGL coal supply position remains well-hedged Performance reflects capacity to flex incremental generation to meet market demand Black coal position (Mt) 14 12 Additional generation supported by stockpile drawdown 10 8 Stockpile drawdown 6 Contracted Coal Committed load supported by contracted coal position AGL Macquarie Generation 4 2 0 12345678910111213141516FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F 11 AGL well-positioned in event of LGC shortfall … while lack of capital investment reflects policy uncertainty LGC market model – new LRET target 60,000 6,000 50,000 5,000 40,000 4,000 30,000 3,000 MW LGCs (000s) 20,000 2,000 10,000 1,000 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 LGCs supply Opening bank LGC shortfall LRET compliance and voluntary LGCs Installed capacity required (RHS) For personal use only 12 6 14/11/2016 SA pricing driven by thermal withdrawals South Australia electricity forward curve flat swap ($/MWh) May 16: Jun 16: AGL 110 Closure of defers Torrens A 2012: Northern only operates Northern and mothballing Playford 100 Oct-Mar. Playford not intended to operate at all Jun 15: Jul 15: Announcement Northern, Playford and 90 Jun 14: Dec 14: AGL that Northern, Leigh Creek Northern to announces Playford and Leigh closure brought operate mothball of Creek won’t 80 forward to Mar 17 through Torrens A operate beyond winter by 2017 Mar 18 Jul 16: Pelican Point 70 following increases to full operational capacity on SA 60 turnaround government request Oct 15: Announcement of 50 closure of Playford and Northern in Mar 13: Pelican Mar 16 40 Point reduced to half capacity 30 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Source: GFI Group 13 Wholesale Electricity: Managing Volatility Richard Wrightson General Manager, Wholesale Markets For personal use only 7 14/11/2016 Wholesale Group Electricity: Operations: Managing Driving Value Volatility 15 Group Operations: Driving Value Doug Jackson Executive General Manager, Group Operations For personal use only 8 14/11/2016 Focusing on improving our safety performance Total Injury Frequency Rate (TIFR) per million man hours 12 Macquarie contractors 11.0 10 included from FY16 8 6.2 6 4.7 4 4.3 2.7 2 1.9 0 FEB 2015 FEB FEB 2016 FEB JUL 2015JUL SEP 2015 JUL 2014JUL SEP 2014 OCT 2015 DEC 2015 OCT 2014 DEC 2014 APR 2016 APR 2015 JUN 2016JUN JUN 2015JUN NOV 2015 2016 JAN AUG 2015 AUG JAN 2015 JAN NOV 2014 AUG 2014 AUG MAR 2016 MAR 2015 MAY 2016 MAY 2015 FY17 YTD OCT YTD FY17 AGL TIFR Combined TIFR Employee TIFR Contractor 17 AGL Macquarie: beating expectations two years since For personal use only acquisition 18 9 14/11/2016 Key operating statistics illustrate performance Lost generation due to mills (GWh) Duration of Liddell forced outages (days) 300 6.2 $45M gross 5.7 250 AGL margin acquisition improvement 4.8 in FY16 200 150 100 50 0 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Baseline Waterwall Reheater 19 Improved generation output at AGL Macquarie Bayswater net actual generation (GWh) Liddell net actual generation (GWh) 1,800 1,000 1,600 800 1,400 1,200 600 1,000 800 400 600 400 200 200 - - For personal use only Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 20 10 14/11/2016 Optimising
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