Peace Monitoring Report 2013 The Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report Number Two Paul Nolan 2013 Peace Monitoring Report 2013 Data sources and acknowledgements This report draws mainly on statistics that are in the public domain. Data sets from various government departments and public bodies in Northern Ireland have been used and, in order to provide a wider context, comparisons are made which draw upon figures produced by government departments and public bodies in England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland. Using this variety of sources means there is no standard model that applies across the different departments and jurisdictions. Many organisations have also changed the way in which they collect their data over the years, which means that in some cases it has not been possible to provide historical perspective on a consistent basis. For some indicators, only survey-based data is available. When interpreting statistics from survey data, such as the Labour Force Survey, it is worth bearing in mind that they are estimates associated with confidence intervals (ranges in which the true value is likely to lie). In other cases where official figures may not present the full picture, survey data is included because it may provide a more accurate estimate – thus, for example, findings from the Northern Ireland Crime Survey are included along with the official crime statistics from the PSNI. The production of the report has been greatly assisted by the willing cooperation of many statisticians and public servants, particularly those from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, the PSNI and the various government departments. On occasion data tables have been drawn up in response to particular requests and such assistance has been invaluable. Thanks are also due to Dr Robin Wilson for his forensic editing skills, and to Steven Law for the enthusiasm, care and skill he brought to the task of research assistance. Published by the Community Relations Council, 6 Murray Street, Belfast BT1 6DN All enquiries to [email protected] ISBN: 978 1 898276 54 8 Produced by Three Creative Co. Ltd 028 9048 3388 Foreword Foreword This is the second time I’ve written a foreword for the Peace Monitoring Report. Last year it was to launch a new venture; this year it is to mark the development of a project that has already established itself. Following its publication last year there was a series of events – conferences, seminars, roundtables – at which its findings were picked over, debated, and incorporated into policy development. It turned out that our initial hunch was right: there is a need for an annual review that can pull together data from all available sources to present a kaleidoscopic picture of the changing Northern Ireland. The solid evidence base in the first Peace Monitoring Report allowed for a new objectivity in how the problems of a post- conflict society are framed. That doesn’t mean that evidence has taken over as the only yardstick for policy-makers in Northern Ireland, but it does mean that there is an objective analysis that is available for those who wish to consult it. And, with 2013 marking the 15th anniversary of the Belfast Agreement, this is a timely moment for such a detailed account of the peace process – its weaknesses as well as its strengths. There are many people to thank for bringing the report to this stage. It was back in 2009 that the Community Relations Council first began discussion with our colleagues in the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation about the possibility of creating an indicator framework to monitor Northern Ireland’s journey out of violence. They were the obvious people to turn to – not just because of the large financial investment each of the two bodies had put into Northern Ireland, but because the individuals concerned had a feel for the situation and each brought to it a strong personal commitment. The Charitable Trust has been a major supporter of the third sector here, while the Foundation has done much to deepen our knowledge of poverty and social exclusion. This was the first time they had jointly funded a project, and we have benefited greatly from the combined wisdom of the staff who have assisted us to date: Stephen Pittam, Celia McKeon and Michael Pitchford from the Charitable Trust, and Nancy Kelley and Aleks Collingwood from the Foundation. We have also been fortunate – extremely fortunate – in having such a range of expertise on the Advisory Board. Those who have participated have read many drafts, attended many meetings, discussed and debated many times, and always with patience, good humour and most of all, insight. I therefore wish to thank Professor Adrian Guelke, Professor Gillian Robinson, Professor Frank Gaffikin, Professor Jennifer Todd, Professor Paddy Hillyard and Professor Neil Gibson. When Neil joined the Board he was Director of Oxford Economics and that seemed to offer a counter-balance to such professorial expertise. During the course of the last year Neil has joined the professoriate, taking up a chair at the University of Ulster. This means our ‘real world’ perspective now has to come from Kathryn Torney from the online investigative website, The Detail, and I must say it is a task she performs admirably. The new CEO of the CRC, Jacqueline Irwin, has an unrivalled knowledge of the dynamic of grassroots communities and a keen sense of how research of this kind can be given a practical focus. My thanks to them all. Finally, I must thank the author of the report, Paul Nolan, who has brought the same energy and skill to the task as he did to the first report. This has been a major undertaking and Paul’s research, analysis and presentation has made the report essential reading for all those interested in peace building and conflict transformation. The analysis that is contained in the pages that follow take us from where we left off in February 2012 up to the end of February 2013. It is a year that, in football parlance, has been a game of two halves. For most of 2012 the peace process in Northern Ireland seemed to be stabilising. Following the decision on 3 December at Belfast City Council to limit the flying of the union flag to a limited number of designated days, there was a sudden return to the days of street protests and of images of public disorder. It appeared to the rest of the world that Northern Ireland had simply lurched back to its old sectarian obsessions. This report reveals a much more complex picture and one which allows those events to be placed in perspective. That perspective also allows for a dispassionate analysis of the deeper stresses in the society, and for a consideration of the many positive developments over the past year. It is a hard balance to achieve, but the difficulty in achieving is also the reason why it needs to be done. I commend this report to you. Tony McCusker Chairperson Community Relations Council Contents Contents Ten Key Points 5 Introduction and Context 9 1. INTRODUCTION 9 1.1 The indicator framework 10 1.2 The limitations of the research 12 2 POLITICAL BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT 15 2.1 The historical context 15 2.2 The current political framework 16 2.3 The importance of narratives 18 3 THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT 18 3.1 Profiling the workforce 19 3.2 The private sector 21 3.3 The tourist industry: Our Time, Our Place? 23 3.4 Foreign direct investment 25 3.5 The public sector 26 3.6 The British subvention 27 3.7 Can Northern Ireland resource itself? 28 4. THE DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT 29 4.1 Demography and identity 29 4.2 Not just Catholics and Protestants 31 Dimension One 37 The Sense of Safety 1. OVERALL CRIME RATES 38 1.1 How violent a society is Northern Ireland? 38 1.2 Northern Ireland – the armed peace 41 2. HATE CRIME 41 2.1 The recording of hate crime 41 2.2 Hate crimes and incidents - a trend overview 43 2.3 Does Northern Ireland have more hate crimes than other places? 45 2.4 Racist hate crime 47 2.5 Sectarian hate crime 49 2.6 Homophobic hate crime 52 2.7 The prosecution of hate crime - a lack of conviction? 54 Contents 3. DOMESTIC VIOLENCE AND SEXUAL CRIME 56 4. THE PARAMILITARIES 56 4.1 Overview 56 4.2 The dissident republicans 58 4.3 Loyalist paramilitaries 62 5 POLICING 64 5.1 Strength and composition 64 5.2 Religion, gender and ethnicity 65 5.3 Perceptions of policing 66 5.4 Stop and search 66 5.5 Complaints and allegations 67 5.6 Historical enquiries team 69 5.7 The rehiring of RUC officers 69 5.8 Covert policing 70 5.9 The flags protest 71 5.10 The policing year - a balance sheet 72 6 THE POLICE OMBUDSMAN 73 7 PRISONS 73 7.1 The prison population 74 7.2 Paramilitary prisoners 75 7.3 Implementing Owers: the management of change 76 7.4 Suicide and vulnerability in prisons 76 8 SAFETY IN THE PUBLIC SPHERE 77 8.1 Internal perceptions of safety 77 8.2 External perceptions 78 9 ‘PEACE WALLS’ 80 9.1 Making the count 80 9.2 When will the walls come down? 81 10 THE MARCHING SEASON 84 10.1 Assessing the year 84 Dimension Two 85 Equality 1. MEASURING SOCIAL INEQUALITIES IN NORTHERN IRELAND 87 1.1 Wealth, poverty and inequality 87 1.2 Wealth 87 1.3 Investment and income 87 1.4 Income differentials 88 Contents 2.