10 2008 Election Preview politico Tuesday, November 4, 2008 Tuesday, November 4, 2008 politico 2008 Election Preview 11

6-7:59 p.m. Kentucky’s 3rd District What is happening The rematch between Democratic Rep. John Yar- Indiana and Kentucky are the first Ohio’s 2nd District muth and former Republican Rep. Anne Northup in states whose polls close on Election The district gave 64 percent the Louisville-based 3rd is far less competitive than Night, though the 6 p.m. Eastern their 2006 race, which Yarmuth won 51 percent to 48 closing time is a bit misleading since to Bush in 2004, but GOP percent. After outspending Yarmuth by more than parts of both states are divided into Rep. Jean Schmidt just $1 million in 2006, Northup trails in fundraising and different time zones. By 8 p.m., nine can’t seem to lock it down. A in the polls. states offering 98 electoral votes will magnet for controversy since be finished voting. her August 2005 special election win, Schmidt is in a tough fight with a repeat challenger and an unusually viable independent candi- date.

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10 North Carolina’s 8th District After eking out a 329-vote win in 2006, Republican Rep. Robin Hayes had little room for error in his politically marginal South Carolina’s 1st District district. But he may have made a big Georgia’s 8th District one with his recent remark that “liber- Indiana’s 3rd District Atlanta GOP Rep. Henry Brown Jr., als hate real Americans that work and While Barack Obama After winning one of the closest races the only House member at in the nation in 2006 — by just 1,752 accomplish and achieve and believe in looks to put Indiana in the risk in the Palmetto State, is God.” Democratic column for votes — Democratic Rep. Jim Mar- engaged in a battle between the first time since 1964, shall faces another tough reelection two leading grocery store state Democrats are try- contest. Casting a gutsy vote in favor chains: A former vice presi- ing to pick up Rep. Mark of the economic rescue bill might end dent of Piggy Wiggly, Brown up costing him this seat. Souder’s reliably Republi- Courtesy Of Jim Marshall is facing a well-funded chal- can House seat — a district for Congress lenge from Linda Ketner, that delivered 68 percent to the heiress to the Food Lion President Bush in 2004. fortune.

GEORGIA Indiana Kentucky SOuth Vermont Virginia North Carolina Ohio Electoral Votes: 15 Electoral Votes: 11 Electoral Votes: 8 Electoral Votes: 3 Electoral Votes: 13 Electoral Votes: 15 Electoral Votes: 20 2007 Population: 9,544,750 2007 Population: 6,345,289 2007 Population: 4,241,474 Carolina 2007 Population: 621,254 2007 Population: 7,712,091 2007 Population: 9,061,032 2007 Population: 11,466,917 Electoral Votes: 8 Races to Watch Demographics Races to Watch Demographics Races to Watch Demographics 2007 Population: 4,407,709 Races to Watch Demographics Races to Watch Demographics Races to Watch Demographics Sen. Saxby Chambliss In the 3rd District, Mark Senate Minority Leader Demographics Demographics Call it the snoozer Senate race North Carolina is home to Four GOP-held House seats looked 62.6% Souder 85.8% Mitch 89.3% of the year. 70.2% one of the 70.2% are within 84% likely to White has gotten White McCon- White Former White highest- White Democrat- White coast to 28.5% a late 8.3% nell, a 7.3% 66.1% 96.2% Democratic 19.4% profile 21.4% ic reach 11.4% victory Black scare as Black landslide Black White White Gov. Mark Black Senate Black in the Black against 5.3% Demo- 3.5% winner 1.5% 29.4% 0.5% Warner 4.7% races 4.7% Buckeye 1.9% former Hispanic crats have Hispanic in 2002, Hispanic Black Black is heavily­ Hispanic in the Hispanic State. Hispanic ap Demo- courtesy of mon- begun ap suddenly 2.4% favored nation, The par- 2.1% tagano for congress 1% 0.7% 0.9% ap 3.7% ap 1.4% AP 1.2% Chambliss cratic spending McConnell finds Hispanic Hispanic Drake against with Sen. ty’s prime state Asian Asian Asian Asian Dole Asian Chabot Asian money on himself 0.9% Jim Elizabeth target is Rep. Jim 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 2.1% 2.3% 1.5% attack ads with a real Asian Asian Gilmore, Dole Repub- Martin, who ran unsuc- Other against Other race on his hands against Other his GOP predecessor in the Other struggling to hold her seat Other lican Rep. Steve Chabot, a Other cessfully for lieutenant 1.2% 1.6% Median Household him. Median Household Democratic businessman Median Household Virginia Statehouse, and is Median Household against Democratic state Median Household veteran of many tough races Median Household governor in 2006. But the Souder is Bruce Lunsford, who has Other Other expected to win a landslide Sen. Kay Hagan. Dole has since he won the seat in rising Democratic tide and Income: Income: Income: Income: Income: Income: $46,832 AP facing a $45,394 poured his own fortune into $39,372 victory. In the Northern $56,277 faced a barrage of attacks $42,625 1994. He faces a well-funded $44,532 Chambliss’ support of the Montagano political the campaign. McConnell 2004 Results 2004 Results Virginia seat held by retiring from national Democrats, challenge from Democratic bailout have made this race (top), Unemployment: Hill novice, Unemployment: remains a slight favorite; Unemployment: Other Other Republican Rep. Tom Davis, Unemployment: who have portrayed her Unemployment: state House Minority Whip Unemployment: a true tossup. Republicans 6.1%* 6.5% 27-year- 6.1%* 6.2% if he goes down in defeat, 6.1%* 7.1% 1% 2% Democrat Gerry Connolly 4.3% 6.1%* as an ineffective senator 6.1%* 7% Steve Driehaus. Another 6.1%* 7.2% have their fingers crossed old at- his ouster would signal the is favored to win the seat who spends most of her target is controversial that a late cash infusion for *National average torney Michael Montagano. *National average increased likelihood that *National average Kerry Bush against Republican Keith *National average time out of state. Polls *National average Rep. Jean Schmidt, but she *National average Chambliss may be enough Bush Kerry 2004 Turnout Rate: This race is an early bell- 2004 Turnout Rate: Democrats could reach a 2004 Turnout Rate: 41% 59% 39% Fimian. There are also two 2004 Turnout Rate: show Hagan with a narrow 2004 Turnout Rate: remains the favorite in a 2004 Turnout Rate: to help him stave off defeat. 50.2% wether: If Democrats knock 53% filibuster-resistant, 60-seat 57.1% 58% under-the-radar House races 56.3% lead, and she should get a 54.3% conservative Cincinnati-area 65.1% In the 8th District, Demo- off Souder, expect a long Senate majority. Another where Democrats hope to boost from Barack Obama’s district against Democrat cratic Rep. Jim Marshall Pop. Breakdown night for the GOP. The state’s Pop. Breakdown potential bellwether: Ken- Pop. Breakdown pick off seats under Repub- Pop. Breakdown resolute effort to win the Pop. Breakdown Victoria Wulsin and inde- Pop. Breakdown put 71.7% three freshman Democrats, 70.8% tucky’s 2nd District, where 55.7% lican control. High African- 73% state. The banner House 60.2% pendent David Krikorian. 77.3% himself Key Fact Key Fact American turnout in Virginia’s race is in the 8th District, Democrats are also opti- in harm’s Urban all of whom ousted Repub- Urban Democrat David Bos­well Urban Urban Urban Urban lican incumbents in 2006, stands a good chance of Even the presence of South At one time, Vermont was one 2nd District could threaten where Rep. Robin Hayes has mistic about picking up the way by 28.3% 29.2% 44.3% Carolina-born John Edwards of the most Republican states in 27% struggled against his repeat 39.8% 22.7% back- appear headed to victory. picking up the most Repub- Rep. Thelma Drake’s chances two open seats of retiring Rural The only one potentially at Rural lican district in the state. Rural on the Democratic ticket wasn’t presidential elections — it was against Democrat Glenn Nye, Rural Democratic challenger, Rural GOP Reps. Deborah Pryce Rural ing the enough to stop Bush from roll- one of just two states that voted social studies teacher Larry bailout. risk is Rep. Baron Hill, who Boswell is facing Republican a former Foreign Service and Ralph Regula. In Pryce’s ing up a big 58 percent win in against Franklin D. Roosevelt in Kissell. The economy has AP Marshall Key Fact is facing his fourth straight Key Fact Brett Guthrie, and polls Key Fact diplomat. But Drake is hoping Key Fact Columbus-area district, Key Fact 2004. his landslide 1936 win. Now it’s McCain’s coattails will give been particularly hard-hit in Republican state Sen. Steve Goddard cut a tele- Despite a tough race against former GOP Democratic Rep. show a neck-and-neck race. The May 1994 special one of the most Democratic. Of all the open-seat Key Fact Ohio elected four vision ad year for Republi- Rep. Mike Sodrel. There is Brad Ellsworth, who If Democrats can win in election victory of her a boost in this military- Senate races in 2008, this working-class district, If Dole loses her Stivers is up against Demo- new House mem- explaining cans nationwide, at least some encouraging represents a heavily this rural, central-Kentucky- GOP Rep. Ron Lewis heavy district. The race in the contest between contributing to Hayes’ woes. reelection bid, she cratic County Commissioner bers, three of them his vote, but Republican not a single one of news for Republicans: Gov. Republican district based seat in a presidential in the 2nd District Virginia’s 5th District could Mark Warner and Jim Republicans, who haven’t would join a long Mary Jo Kilroy. Stivers has Democrats, in 2006. the seven House Mitch Daniels is favored to that gave 62 percent year, it bodes well for their was viewed as a be the shocker of the night Gilmore is the least won the governorship in line of other one- trailed Kilroy in recent polls All are expected opponent Rick Goddard, Electoral Votes: 5 a retired Air Force major Republicans from defeat former Democratic to President Bush, prospects elsewhere. precursor to the GOP WEst if GOP Rep. Virgil H. Goode, competitive. Since two decades, have a chance and-done North and could lose critical GOP to breeze through general, has called his Georgia is in a Rep. Jill Long Thompson. is considered a safe And in Louisville, fresh- landslide in Novem- 2007 Population: 1,812,035 who hasn’t run the most January 2008, Warner at breaking that streak. Carolina senators. votes to an independent reelection this year. decision reckless and ap- competitive race Just two years ago, Daniels bet for reelection. man Democratic Rep. John ber. Now, as Lewis re- Virginia organized campaign, falls to has never led in the Their nominee, Charlotte Since 1974, the state candidate.In Regula’s com- Between retire- pears to have caught some for reelection. The looked like one of the most But GOP Rep. Mark Yarmuth is favored in his tires, the seat is again 2004 Results Democrat Tom Perriello in polls by less than Mayor Pat McCrory, has has had six senators petitive Canton-area seat, ments and deaths, late momentum. Marshall real action is at the vulnerable governors in the Souder, who sits in rematch against Anne viewed as a leading Other Southside Virginia. But don’t double digits. Late been running even against who served only Democratic state Sen. John the delegation is eked out a victory in 2006, top of the ticket, nation, but he has gotten an even more con- Northup, the former GOP indicator — this time 1% bet on Goode losing unless a October polls showed the state’s Democratic one term, the most Boccieri is favored against guaranteed to get at and this should be another in the presidential credit for the state’s eco- servative district, is congresswoman he defeated of a possible Demo- Demographics Democratic wave sweeps the Warner with a lead of lieutenant governor, Bev recent being John Republican state Sen. Kirk least four more new nail-biter. and Senate races. nomic growth. endangered. in 2006. cratic resurgence. Kerry Bush commonwealth. around 30 points. Perdue. Edwards. Schuring. House members. 94.6% 43% 56% White 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact With nearly 30 percent Democrats have carried In 2004, Bush won 108 of 3.1% Virginia has voted for the The last Democrat to carry There’s a reason why recent Other of Georgia’s population Other Indiana just once in Kentucky’s 120 counties Black Key Fact Other 1% 1% Democratic presidential North Carolina was Jimmy presidential elections have African-American, the the past half-century of on his way to a 60 percent 0.7% Voter registration figures 1% nominee just once since Carter in 1976. In a state seemed to hinge on Ohio. expected heavy turnout Kerry presidential elections. to 40 percent romp over Hispanic suggest the state is one of the 1948. But a big Obama mar- with a 21 percent African- Aside from its 20-electoral- Kerry Bush of this demographic has Bush And Bush won in a 60 Kerry Bush John F. Kerry. This year, most Democratic, but Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush 39% 0.5% gin out of Northern Virginia American population, black vote payoff, the state has 41% 58% improved Democratic 60% percent to 39 percent 40% 60% the polls show a comfort- Asian easily carried West Virginia 45% 54% would go a long way toward 44% 56% turnout will be key to deter- 49% 51% correctly picked the winner prospects in the state. blowout in 2004. able McCain lead. twice. This year, John McCain turning the state blue. mining the outcome. in the past 11 elections. 1.1% has a slight polling edge. Source: The Almanac of American Politics, 2008 Other Note: Due to rounding, not all demographics total 100 percent. Election results figures were also rounded, and for some states, “Other” category includes candidates such as Ralph Nader and Michael Badnarik.