THE POLITI OF TRAUMA CS The Rhodes Cook Letter September 2005 The Rhodes Cook Letter SEPTEMBER 2005 / VOL. 6, NO. 5 (ISSN 1552-8189) Contents The Politics of Trauma . 3 Chart & Graph: Rep. Strength in Congress since the Election of Bush I . 3 Chart: Presidents and Their Parties in the 6-Year Midterm Elections . 4 Chart: Bush Coattail Pull in 2004 . 5 Chart: Targets of Opportunity in 2006? . 6 Chart: Bush Coattails in Historical Terms . 7 Chart & Map: Senators up in ‘06: How They Ran in 2000. 8 Chart & Map: The Ohio 2nd Special Election: A Harbinger for ‘06? . 9 Chart: The GOP’s Evolving Congressional Base . 10 Wrapping Up 2004: Party Registration . 11 Chart & Map: Dems. Reps., Others: Where They Stood by State in Nov. ‘04 . 11 Chart & Map : The Prescience of Party Registration Totals in 2004. 12 Chart & Map : Registration by State from Election to Election, 2000-04 . 13 In the News . 16 Chart: The Changing Composition of the 109th Congress. 16 Chart: What’s up in 2006. 16 The Rhodes Cook Letter is published by Rhodes Cook. Web: tion for six issues is $99. Make check payable to “The Rhodes rhodescook.com. E-mail: [email protected]. Design by Cook Letter” and send it, along with your e-mail address, to Landslide Design, Rockville, MD. “The Rhodes Cook Letter” P.O. Box 574, Annandale, VA. 22003. See the last page of this is published on a bimonthly basis. An individual subscrip- newsletter for a subscription form. All contents are copyrighted ©2005 Rhodes Cook. Use of the material is welcome with attribution, although the author retains full copyright over the material contained herein. The Rhodes Cook Letter • September 2005 2 The Politics of Trauma rive around the suburbs of Northern Virginia these days and one sees plenty of political Dbumper stickers. Not for this fall’s gubernatorial can- didates, but for the combatants Republican Strength in Congress in last fall’s high-voltage presi- Since the Election of Bush I dential election. Some are for President Bush, many are for Through much of the latter half of the 20th century, Republicans looked like a per- manent minority in Congress. But since their dramatic breakthrough in 1994, they John Kerry, and nearly all of have had the look of a semi-permanent majority. Changes in their House majority them are well-scrubbed and in since then have been incremental. And except for the period from mid-2001 to the mint condition – as though the end of 2002 when control slipped briefly to the Democrats, the GOP has consistently 2004 presidential race went from had the upper hand in the Senate as well. campaign mode, to the election, and now back to the campaign, Republican Share of: without missing a beat. Senate Seats The next round in this ongoing House Seats partisan battling will take place in 2006, with the Republicans seemingly well positioned to hold their clear-cut congres- sional majorities. Democrats are on the defen- sive in the Senate, where most of the seats that are up are theirs. And the House has been mired for a decade now in a “small ball era,” where changes from one election to another have been incremen- tal. Yet the great equalizer for the Democrats could be a new Republican Seats % of Chamber Election President political backdrop, one that House Senate House Senate could be considered stage two 1988 G. Bush (R) 174 45 40.0% 45.0% of the “politics of trauma.” Stage one was 9/11, the open- 1990 G. Bush (R) 167 44 38.4% 44.0% ing salvos of the war in Iraq, 1992 Clinton (D) 176 43 40.5% 43.0% and on through the 2004 elec- 1994 Clinton (D) 230 53 52.9% 53.0% tion. But this year, it seems that 1996 Clinton (D) 227 55 52.2% 55.0% a corner has been turned. Criti- 1998 Clinton (D) 223 55 51.3% 55.0% cism of the war’s never-ending 2000 G.W. Bush (R) 221 50 50.8% 50.0% nature, the government’s shaky response to Hurricane Katrina, 2002 G.W. Bush (R) 229 51 52.6% 51.0% and rising oil prices threaten to 2004 G.W. Bush (R) 232 55 53.3% 55.0% alter the political terrain once Source: Congressional Quarterly’s Guide to U.S. Elections Vol II. so favorable to the Republi- The Rhodes Cook Letter • September 2005 3 cans. If it does change, it has a model: the traumatic political environment of the 1960s, which first benefited the then-ruling Democrats before becoming an ally of the Republicans. The 9/11 of the 1960s came on Nov. 22, 1963, when President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas. It was a shocking, numbing, saddening event, which abruptly ended a period of innocence (at least viewed retrospectively) in the nation’s history. The Democrats, who controlled both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, were the immediate beneficiaries. A sweeping victory for the party at both the presidential and congres- sional levels in 1964 gave the Democrats a mandate to pur- Presidents and Their Parties in the sue an unabashedly activist 6-Year Midterm Elections liberal agenda. One of the verities of politics through the middle and late 20th century was that Yet as the 1960s continued the president’s party almost invariably lost congressional seats in midterm elec- to unfold, the politics of trau- tions, with the losses particularly severe at the six-year mark. But that pattern was ma entered a second stage broken in 1998, when six years into Bill Clinton’s presidency, the Democrats gained as serious problems arose five House seats and held their own in the Senate. But is the “six year itch” gone for good? George W. Bush heads toward his last midterm election with a presi- – urban rioting, a lingering dential approval rating significantly lower than Clinton’s, and for that matter, any war in Vietnam, and more other postwar president at a similar time in their presidency except for Richard political assassinations – all Nixon, who resigned before his sixth-year midterm was held. problems that the Democrats could not solve. Nor could Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings President’s Party they escape the fact that gain/loss of seats President In Sept. Last 6-Year these crises were happening of Year before Midterm on their watch. They lost 47 Before Midterm House Senate House seats and three Senate Franklin Roosevelt (D) 1938 - 52% - 71 - 6 seats in the midterm elec- Dwight Eisenhower (R) 1958 59% 57% - 47 - 13 tion of 1966. Two years later, they lost the White House. John Kennedy (D)/ Lyndon Johnson (D)* 1966 63% 44% - 47 - 3 Could the midterms of 2006 Richard Nixon (R)/ be a comeback opportunity for the Democrats as it was Gerald Ford (R)* 1974 33% 54% -43 - 3 for the GOP back in 1966? Ronald Reagan (R) 1986 60% 63% - 5 - 8 Bill Clinton (D) 1998 58% 66% + 5 0 There are certainly some George W. Bush (R) 2006 40% - - - good reasons to say no. The NNote:ote: AAnn aasterisksterisk ((*)*) iindicatesndicates tthathat tthehe ppresidentresident iinitiallynitially eelectedlected wwasas nnoo llongeronger six-year midterm, so notori- iinn oofficeffice bbyy tthehe ttimeime ooff hhisis pparty’sarty’s ssixth-yearixth-year mmidtermidterm eelection.lection. JJohnohn KKennedyennedy wwasas ous through the middle of aassassinatedssassinated iinn NNovemberovember 11963.963. RRichardichard NNixonixon rresignedesigned iinn AAugustugust 11974.974. the 20th century as a debacle SSources:ources: GGallupallup PPolloll fforor ppresidentialresidential aapprovalpproval rratings;atings; CCongressionalongressional QQuarterlyuarterly’s for the president’s party, lost GGuideuide ttoo UU.S..S. EElectionslections VVol.ol. IIII fforor mmidtermidterm eelectionlection rresults,esults, with changes tending to its bite in 1998 when the be measured from immediately before to immediately after the election. Democrats (six years into Bill Clinton’s presidency) gained seats in the House and held their own in the Senate. No longer is there much talk of a “six year itch” that automatically means big losses for the president’s party. Nor is there the ebb and flow in congressional politics these days to readily create the opportunity for a big comeback by the opposition. A generation ago, there was volatility in House elections due in no small part to the considerable length of presidential coattails. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson ran ahead of nearly half of the Democratic House winners (134 of 295), helping to create a House supermajority for the Democrats that evaporated two years later when the party’s coattail recipients were on their own. The Rhodes Cook Letter • September 2005 4 These days, House members are no longer so dependent on Bush’s Coattail Pull in 2004 presidential coattails. They have larger campaign chests, safer President Bush last November ran ahead of nine Republican Senate winners and 37 districts, and consequently are GOP House winners. Nearly all of Bush’s coattails pals were in “Red America,” and most were from the South. Among them were 11 Texas Republican House winners, not nearly as exposed as their including Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who trailed the president by 9 percentage predecessors were a generation points in his Houston-area district. The list below includes all the GOP Senate win- ago. In 2004, President Bush ners who drew a lower percentage of the total vote in their state than Bush, as well as the 14 Republican House winners who ran more than 5 points behind Bush in ran ahead of just 37 Republican their district. An asterisk (*) indicates an incumbent. House winners. And only 18 House Republicans are in hostile terrain, representing districts that GOP SENATE WINNERS Senate Bush % - voted Democratic for president GOP Winner State Bush % Winner’s % GOP Senate % last November.