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Home , Beverly Byron, Christopher Cox, Craig Washington, Duke Cunningham, Frank Mascara, Greg Laughlin

ONE MONTH TO

The Rhodes Cook Letter

January 2006 The Rhodes Cook Letter JANUARY 2006 / VOL. 7, NO. 1 (ISSN 1552-8189) Contents

One Month to Texas ...... 3

Chart & Map: 2006 Calendar by Month ...... 3 Chart & Maps: 2006 Primary Calendar: What’s Up When ...... 4 Chart: Some Primary Hot Spots in ‘06: An Early Look ...... 6 Chart: Breaking a Sweat: Congressional Incumbents Renominated with less than 60% of the ‘04 Primary vote ...... 7 Graph: Highest Incumbent Primary Election Losses Since World War II . . . . 8 Chart: Year by Year: Incumbents Defeated in House, Senate Primaries & General Elections Since 1990 ...... 8 Chart: Senate, Gubernatorial Primary Losers Since 1990...... 9 Chart & Map: The Geography of Primary Defeat: House Incumbents Beaten for Renomination Since 1990...... 10 Chart & Graph: Decade by Decade: Defeated House Incumbents over the Last Half Century ...... 11 Chart & Graph: Remapping Texas: From Dem. to Rep. in Four Years 12 Chart: Current Republican House Strength in the Larger States ...... 13 Chart: 2006 Primary Calendar: Who Can Vote Where...... 14 Two Years to Iowa ...... 16

Chart: Iowa, New Hampshire and the Fight to be First ...... 18 For the Record ...... 19

Chart: The Changing Composition of the 109th Congress...... 19 Chart: Special House Elections in 2005-06...... 19

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The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 2 One Month to Texas

t is probably fitting that the first congressional primary of 2006 will be held in Texas – where a Icontroversial, Republican-oriented remap before the last election has landed its prime architect, former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, in hot water. Few incumbents in the Lone Star State have drawn primary opposi- tion March 7, but DeLay 2006 Primary Election Calendar By Month is one of them. He has three Republican chal- lengers in his - Winter Primaries area district. Spring Primaries While none are likely Summer Primaries to come close to defeat- ing him, the size of the anti-DeLay vote will be the first tangible evidence of the trouble that the incumbent is in with his constituents. And it could be a harbinger of what other ethics-tinged members of Congress may encounter when it is their turn to face the voters. This year’s primary election season sprawls across the calendar from early March to Normally, the primaries late September, with the bulk of the action taking place in two clusters, late spring (May and June) and late summer (August and September). An asterisk (*) indicates are a very easy hurdle for that Louisiana does not have a primary as such. In its unique election system, the incumbents on their way to Bayou state has a first-round vote Nov. 7 and a runoff Dec. 9 for those races where the general election. What no candidate wins a majority of the vote in November. volatility there is in the Primaries Month House Governor States Holding Primaries nominating phase is usually Senate limited to the once a decade March 51 1 2 2 - IL, TX post-redistricting year, when April - - - 0 the lines are redrawn and 10 - AR, ID, IN, KY, NE, NC, OH, May 82 5 6 many House members must OR, PA, WV adjust to at least some new 13 - AL, CA, IA, ME, MS, MT, June 110 9 7 terrain. In the most recent NJ, NM, ND, SC, SD, UT, VA of these post-redistricting July 18 0 2 2 - GA, OK years – 2002 – eight House 9 - AK, CO, CT, KS, MI, MO, August 54 6 8 incumbents suffered pri- NV, TN, WY 13 - AZ, DE, FL, HI, MD, MA, mary defeat, by far the high- September 113 12 11 est number in any election MN, NH, NY, RI, VT, WA, WI since 1992. November* 7 0 0 1 - LA* TOTAL 435 33 36 (Continued on Page 6)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 3 Governorships Up 2006 Primary Calendar: What’s Up When

The following chart lists dates for primaries and runoff elections, the latter required in several states (mainly in the South) when the leading primary finisher does not win a certain percentage of the vote (usually 50%). In a few states, parties hold pre-primary conven- tions to winnow the field of candidates. In Virginia, parties may hold conventions to nominate their can- Senate Seats Up didates. An asterisk (*) notes the unique situation in Louisiana, where there is no primary per se. Candi- dates from all parties run together on the Nov. 7 bal- lot with a runoff Dec. 9 if necessary. A pound sign (#) indicates incumbents who assumed their office since the last election. Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) of was elected in a special election in 2005. Republicans are indicated in BOLD. Incumbents not seeking reelection are indicated in italics.

‘06 Primary House Seats Seats Up Sub-55% House Date Rep. Dem. Ind. Governors Senators Winners in Nov. ‘04 March 7/April Kay Bailey TX 17 - Edwards (D) 51%; Texas 21 11 Rick Perry (R) 11 (Runoff) Hutchison (R) TX 32 - Sessions (R) 54% March 21 9 10 Rod Blagojevich (D) IL 8 - Bean (D) 52% IN 2 - Chocola (R) 54%; IN 7 - Carson (D) 54%; May 2 7 2 Richard Lugar (R) IN 8 - Hostettler (R) 53%; IN 9 - Sodrel (R) 49% May 2/May 30 North Carolina 76 NC 11 - Taylor (R) 55% (Runoff) Ohio May 2 12 6 (R) Mike DeWine (R) OH 2 - Schmidt (R) 52%# Nebraska May 9 3 Dave Heineman (R)# Ben Nelson (D) NE 1 - Fortenberry (R) 54% May 9 1 2 Robert Byrd (D) May 16 5 1 KY 4 - G. Davis (R) 54% Oregon May 16 1 4 Ted Kulongoski (D) OR 5 - Hooley (D) 53% May 16 12 7 Ed Rendell (D) (R) PA 6 - Gerlach (R) 51% May 23/June 13 Mike Huckabee (R) 13 (Runoff) May 23 2 Dirk Kempthorne (R) June 6/June 27 Alabama 52 Bob Riley (R) (Runoff) Arnold CA 20 - Costa (D) 53%; June 6 20 33 (D) Schwarzenegger (R) CA 26 - Dreier (R) 54% Iowa June 6 4 1 Tom Vilsack (D) June 6/June 27 Mississippi 22 Trent Lott (R) (Runoff) Montana June 6 1 Conrad Burns (R) New Jersey June 6 6 7 Robert Menendez (D)# New Mexico June 6 2 1 Bill Richardson (D) Jeff Bingaman (D) NM 1 - Wilson (R) 54% June 6/June 20 South Dakota 1 Mike Rounds (R) SD AL - Herseth (D) 53% (Runoff)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 4 ‘06 Primary House Seats Seats Up Sub-55% House Date Rep. Dem. Ind. Governors Senators Winners in Nov. ‘04 Maine June 13 2 John Baldacci (D) Olympia Snowe (R) North Dakota June 13 1 Kent Conrad (D) June 13/June 27 South Carolina 42 Mark Sanford (R) (Runoff) Virginia June 13 8 3 George Allen (R) Utah June 27 2 1 Orrin Hatch (R) UT 2 - Matheson (D) 55% July 18/Aug. 8 76 Sonny Perdue (R) GA 12 - Barrow (D) 52% (Runoff) July 25/Aug. 22 4 1 Brad Henry (D) (Runoff) Kansas Aug. 1 3 1 Kathleen Sebelius (D) KS 3 - Moore (D) 55% Aug. 3 4 5 Phil Bredesen (D) Bill Frist (R) TN 4 - L. Davis (D) 55% CO 3 - Salazar (D) 51%; Aug. 8 4 3 Bill Owens (R) CO 4 - Musgrave (R) 51%; CO 7 - Beauprez (R) 55% CT 2 - Simmons (R) 54%; Connecticut Aug. 8 3 2 M. Jodi Rell (R)# Joe Lieberman (D) CT 4 - Shays (R) 52% Aug. 8 9 6 Jennifer Granholm (D) Debbie Stabenow (D) Aug. 8 5 4 Jim Talent (R) MO 3 - Carnahan (D) 53% Nevada Aug. 15 2 1 Kenny Guinn (R) John Ensign (R) NV 3 - Porter (R) 54% Aug. 221 Frank Murkowski (R) Wyoming Aug. 22 1 Dave Freudenthal (D) Craig Thomas (R)

Florida Sept. 5 18 7 Jeb Bush (R) Bill Nelson (D) Arizona Sept. 12 6 2 Jane Napolitano (D) Jon Kyl (R) Delaware Sept. 12 1 Thomas Carper (D) Sept. 12 2 6 Robert Ehrlich (R) (D) Minnesota Sept. 12 4 4 Tim Pawlenty (R) Mark Dayton (D) MN 6 - Kennedy (R) 54% New Hampshire Sept. 12 2 John Lynch (D) NY 27 - Higgins (D) 51%; Sept. 12 9 20 George Pataki (R) Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) NY 29 - Kuhl (R) 51% Rhode Island Sept. 12 2 Donald Carcieri (R) Lincoln Chafee (R) Vermont Sept. 12 1 Jim Douglas (R) James Jeffords (Ind.) Wisconsin Sept. 12 4 4 James Doyle (D) Herb Kohl (D) Sept. 19 10 Mitt Romney (R) Edward Kennedy (D) Washington Sept. 19 3 6 Maria Cantwell (D) WA 8 - Reichert (R) 52% Sept. 23 2 Linda Lingle (R) Daniel Akaka (D) Nov. 7/Dec. 9 Louisiana* 5 2 LA 3 - Melancon (D) 50% (Runoff) At Stake in 2006 232 202 1 36 Up (22 R, 14 D) 33 Up (15 R, 17 D, 1 Ind.) Source: Federal Election Commission (for the calendar); America Votes 26 (for the breakdown of House seats and the results of 2004 House races); The Cook Political Report (for retiring governors and members of Congress). Note: The partisan House totals include a Republican vacancy in California and a Democratic vacancy in New Jersey that are attributed to the party that held the seat at the beginning of the 109th Congress.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 5 (Continued from Page 3) In other election cycles, the primaries usually take a more SOME PRIMARY HOT SPOTS IN ‘06: placid form. Few incumbents lose. Few incumbents are An Early Look threatened. Few issues are With primary filing deadlines in most states still weeks or even framed for the fall election. And months away, many prospective candidates for elective office this much of what attention the pri- year are still weighing the pros and cons of running. But in some maries attract is focused on the places, lively primary contests have already taken form. Below is a sampling of those on the political radar screen. nominations for the small num- ber of competitive open seats March 7 --- Texas: State Comptroller Carole Keeton Stray- for governorships and federal horn, the mother of press secretary Scott McClellan, has aborted a primary challenge to Republican Gov. Rick Perry in order office. to run an independent campaign for governor this fall. But Perry That was the case in 2004. Just has still drawn three primary challengers… so too has embattled two House members lost pri- GOP Rep. Tom DeLay in the Texas 22nd… Former Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, one of only two House members to lose a primary maries (both Texas Democrats). in 2004, is seeking a rematch with Rep. Henry Cuellar in the Texas Only one governor suffered 28th; Cuellar won the last time by just 203 votes… Former Rep. Chris primary defeat (Democrat Bob Bell, the other congressional primary loser in 2004, is running in the Holden of Missouri). And no Democratic primary for governor. senators were beaten by intra- May 9 --- Nebraska: Rep. Tom Osborne, the legendary for- party rivals. mer University of Nebraska football coach, is testing his popularity in the Republican gubernatorial primary against incumbent David Yet this year’s congressional Heineman, who took office last year when Mike Johanns left to primary season may not be so become agriculture secretary in the Bush administration. calm. Every decade or so there May 16 --- Pennsylvania: Former Steelers great comes a “big wave” election Lynn Swann and former Lt. Gov. William Scranton (son of the former that claims a number of incum- governor) are squaring off for the Republican gubernatorial nomina- bents. The last time such a tion and the right to face Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell in the wave hit in the general election fall. was 1994, when three dozen June 6 --- Alabama: Gov. Bob Riley is facing a challenge in Democrats were ousted on both the Republican primary from former state Supreme Court Chief Jus- sides of Capitol Hill and Repub- tice Roy Moore, ousted for his refusal to remove a monument of the Ten Commandments from the state judicial building. licans gained control of both the Senate and the House. Sept. 12 --- Maryland: Mayor Martin O’Malley and Montgomery County Executive Douglas Duncan are battling for the The last time such volatility chance to challenge GOP Gov. Robert Ehrlich in November…. Former occurred in the congressional NAACP president (and Rep.) is running against Rep. primaries was 1992, when the Benjamin Cardin for the Democratic Senate nomination, as Demo- combination of redistricting cratic incumbent Paul Sarbanes steps down. and the House banking scan- Rhode Island: Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee is drawing dal lashed at the Democrats conservative primary opposition from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. and served as a precursor of Sept. 23 --- Hawaii: An intergenerational challenge is shap- the anti-incumbent tide that ing up to Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka, 81, who is drawing primary would rout them from Congress opposition from Rep. Ed Case, 53. two years later. Altogether, 19 House incumbents were beaten in the primary season of 1992, a post-World War II record. Fourteen of them were Democrats.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 6 Republicans: An Ethics Storm Brewing?

here are plenty of controversial issues already in play this year that could similarly roil the Twaters for the Republicans, either in the upcoming primary season or the fall general elec- tion. There is the ongoing war in , the Bush administration’s domestic surveillance program, the new Medicare drug plan, the government response to , and the nation’s immigration policy. But by far the issue that could affect congressional incumbents the most in 2006 is the one that could touch many of them personally, the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal. There has been no surer route to electoral defeat in recent years than when voter doubts are raised about their congressman’s personal ethics. In 1992, many of the congressional primary losers were Breaking a Sweat: Congressional Incumbents Renominated with Less than 60% of the ‘04 Primary Vote

No senators and only two House members were beaten during the 2004 congressional primary season. And only a handful of others had to break a sweat to win renomination. Altogether, just 11 members of Congress - two sena- tors and nine representatives - were held to less than 60% of their party’s primary vote two years ago, and all 11 went on to retain their seats in November. The bulk of the embattled House members were veteran members in one-party districts.

Terms served are as of the 2004 election cycle. The primary and general election vote percentages are based on total votes cast. “@” indicates the incumbent was appointed to her Senate seat. An asterisk (*) indicates that the incumbent was elected in a special House election and was finishing his first full term in 2004.

SENATORS ‘04 General Nov. ‘04 Out- Terms ‘04 Primary % ‘04 Pres. Vote in State % come , R-Pa. 4 50.8% 52.6% Won Kerry by 3% Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska @ 58.1% 48.6% Won Bush by 26% REPRESENTATIVES ‘04 General Nov. ‘04 Terms ‘04 Primary % ‘04 Pres. Vote in District % Outcome Major Owens, D-N.Y. 11 11 45.4% 94.0% Won Kerry by 73% , R-Pa. 9 1* 51.3% 69.5% Won Bush by 34% Barbara Cubin, R-Wyo. AL 5 55.0% 55.3% Won Bush by 40% Jim Kolbe, R-Ariz. 8 10 57.5% 60.4% Won Bush by 7% Chris Cannon, R-Utah 3 4 58.4% 63.4% Won Bush by 57% James Moran, D-Va. 8 7 58.6% 59.7% Won Kerry by 29% Eliot Engel, D-N.Y. 17 8 58.8% 76.2% Won Kerry by 34% Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y. 24 11 58.9% 56.9% Won Bush by 6% Jeff Flake, R-Ariz. 6 2 59.3% 79.4% Won Bush by 29%

Sources: America Votes 26 (CQ Press) for primary and general election vote percentages; The Almanac of American Politics 2006 (National Journal) for the number of terms each member had served at the time of the 2004 election and for the presidential vote by congressional district that year.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 7 Highest Incumbent Primary Election Losses Since World War II tarred by the . Years with Highest Number Five that lost had of House Incumbent Losses “bounced” at least 300 Years with Highest Number checks at the House of Senate Incumbent Losses . In 1998, the lone primary loser in Congress was the ethically tainted , a Republican from California. He 19 18 15 was required to stay in the Washington, D.C., area and wear 6 5 4 an electronic ankle bracelet during much of the primary season 1992 1946 1948 1946 1950 1968 after pleading guilty 1980 to accepting illegal campaign contribu- Year by Year: Incumbents Defeated in House, tions. Senate Primaries & General Elections Since 1990

In 2002, the highest Since 1990, nearly one out of every four House members (40 out of 161) and one out of every profile loser in the eight senators (3 out of 24) that have suffered electoral defeat have lost in their party’s pri- congressional prima- mary. The rest were beaten in the general election. Most of the House primary losers in the last ries was , 15 years were clustered in two elections, 1992 and 2002. In both years, congressional districts throughout the country had been redrawn to reflect the result of the decennial census, not the California Demo- only forcing many incumbents to run in some new terrain but throwing a handful of members crat who was linked each year into districts with a colleague of their own party. In addition, the volume of casual- for months in tabloids ties in the 1992 congressional primaries was swelled by the House banking scandal, as the num- ber of defeated incumbents reached a post-World War II high of 19. and newcasts to the Chandra Levy mur- % of Total Each Year PRIMARIES GENERAL TOTAL DEFEATED der case (although Defeated in Primaries his connection to the House Senate House Senate House Senate House Senate murder of the Wash- 1990 1 0 15 1 16 1 6% 0% ington intern was 1992 19 1 24 4 43 5 44% 20% never proved). 1994 4 0 34 2 38 2 11% 0% While few members 1996 2 1 21 1 23 2 9% 50% of Congress have 1998 1 0 6 3 7 3 14% 0% yet to be implicated 2000 3 0 6 6 9 6 33% 0% directly in the cur- 2002 8 1 8 3 16 4 50% 25% rent lobbying scandal, 2004 2 0 7 1 9 1 22% 0% Abramoff’s ties to the 1990- 40 3 121 21 161 24 25% 13% GOP and his dispro- 2004 portionate giving to Source: Vital Statistics on American Politics 2005-2006 (CQ Press).

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 8 Republican officeholders threatens to make the issue a far bigger problem for the Republicans than the Democrats as the year wears on.

Democrats: Murtha, Lieberman and Iraq

et Democrats have concerns of their own this year, with the most notable their failure to Ycome to grips with the . They have been split on it from the beginning. When Con- gress voted to approve the use of military force against Iraq in October 2002, nearly 60% of Senate Democrats voted in favor (29-to-21), while more than 60% of House Democrats voted against (126- to-81). The party has sought to handle the issue by running as many Iraq for Congress this year as they can. But the Democrats are clearly not of one voice, and the issue might soon begin pro- ducing primary battles within the party just as the did in the late 1960s and early 1970s. One side of the issue is represented these days by Rep. , a decorated Marine veteran and friend of the military, who has argued of late for an immediate pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq. On the other side is Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Democratic vice presidential candidate in 2000 and an aspirant for the party’s presidential nomination in 2004, who has argued just as forcefully for his party to support President Bush in the war effort. The irony is that it would not be a surprise if either Senate, Gubernatorial Primary Losers Since 1990 drew a significant pri- mary challenge this year Every election cycle or two, a sitting governor or senator suffers defeat in their party’s – Murtha, from a pro-war primary. Since 1990, there have been three of each. “@” indicates that the incumbent Democrat in his fiercely was filling an unexpired term. patriotic, blue-collar, GOVERNORS SENATORS Election Terms Terms southwest Pennsylvania Incumbent Incumbent district; Lieberman, from Bob Holden, D-Mo. 2004 1- an anti-war Democrat in (lost to Claire McCaskill) affluent, heavily subur- Robert Smith, R-N.H. 2002 - 2 banized Connecticut. (lost to John E. Sununu) 2000 - - Murtha was so politi- 1998 - - cally secure in 2004 that Sheila Frahm, R-Kan. 1996 - @ he ran unopposed in (lost to Sam Brownback) both the primary and Walter Miller, R-S.D. 1994 @- general election. But he (lost to Bill Janklow) is no stranger to party Bruce Sundlun, D-R.I. 2 primaries. He was nearly (lost to Myrth York) Alan Dixon, D-Ill. blindsided in the 1990 1992 - 2 Democratic primary by (lost to Carol Moseley Braun) a feisty challenger who 1990 - - claimed that Murtha was Source: America Votes, 19-26 (CQ Press). (Continued on Page11)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 9 The Geography of Primary Defeat: House Incumbents Beaten for Renomination Since 1990

States with four incumbents beaten in primaries since 1990

States with three incumbents beaten

States with two incumbents beaten

States with one incumbent beaten

DDEMOCRATSEMOCRATS REPUBLICANSREPUBLICANS Election TTermserms TTermserms MMemberember MMemberember Since 1990, 40 House mem- 2004 Chris Bell, Texas 9 1 - bers have been denied renomination in their par- Ciro Rodriguez, Texas 28 3 ty’s primary. Of this group, 2002 Gary Condit, Calif. 18 6 Bob Barr, Ga. 7* 4 only five were freshmen, Earl Hilliard, Ala. 7 5 Brian Kerns, Ind. 4* 1 seven were paired in the Frank Mascara, Pa. 12* 4 same district against anoth- er incumbent, and 12 were Cynthia McKinney, Ga. 4 5 Republicans. Geographical- Lynn Rivers, Mich. 15* 4 ly, the incumbent House pri- Tom Sawyer, Ohio 17 8 mary losers were scattered 2000 Michael Forbes, N.Y. 1 3 Cook, Utah 2 2 across the country - with 14 in the South, 12 in the Mid- Matthew Martinez, Calif. 31 9 west, nine in the Northeast, 1998 - Jay Kim, Calif. 41 3 and five in the West. An 1996 Barbara Rose-Collins, Mich. 15 3 , Texas 14 4 asterisk (*) indicates House 1994 Lucien Blackwell, Pa. 2 1 David Levy, N.Y. 4 1 members who were paired in the primary against an Mike Synar, Okla. 2 8 incumbent of their party. , Texas 18 2 The ‘Terms’ column refers 1992 Bill Alexander, Ark. 1 12 , Okla. 5 8 to the number of terms the Beryl Anthony, Ark. 4 7 Robert Lagomarsino, Calif. 22 9 House member had served at the time of their primary Chester Atkins, Mass. 5 4 Clarence Miller, Ohio 6* 13 defeat. Terry Bruce, Ill. 19* 4 Dick Nichols, Kan. 4 1 Beverly Byron, Md. 6 7 , Mich. 2 13 Charles Hatcher, Ga. 2 6 Charles Hayes, Ill. 1 4 Carroll Hubbard, Ky. 1 9 Ben Jones, Ga. 10 2 Joe Kolter, Pa. 4 5 Marty Russo, Ill. 3* 9 Gus Savage, Ill. 2 6 Stephen Solarz, N.Y. 12 9 Harley Staggers Jr., W.V. 1* 5 1990 - Donald “Buz” Lukens, Ohio 8 4

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 10 (Continued from Page 9) a junketeer and congres- sional pay raiser who was Decade by Decade: using his clout in Wash- Defeated House Incumbents over the Last Half Century ington to secure his own financial well- Primary Election Defeats being. Murtha’s 150 General Election Defeats challenger sent out 140 130 a campaign mail- 120 ing dubbed “John 110 P. Murtha’s Wheel 100 of Fortune” and 90 mocked the value 80 70 of Murtha’s incum- 60 bency by appear- 50 ing at abandoned 40 factories and vacant 30 storefronts with a 20 10 cardboard likeness 0 of the congress- man. 1952-60 1962-70 1972-80 1982-90 1992-2000 2002-04 The well-connected Murtha responded by tapping defense con- The political mortality of House incumbents was significantly higher a decade or so ago than it is now. But just when it appears that congressional politics has settled tractors and lobbyists, into an era of tranquility, an election or two comes along to shake up the status quo. manufacturers and In the last decade, the elections of 1992 and 1994 were responsible for fully two- unions for their sup- thirds of all incumbent defeats (83 of 120). port and emphasizing Over the last half century, close to 25% of all defeated House incumbents have lost the economic ben- in their party’s primary. The rate is a bit higher thus far in this decade because of the efits he had brought comparatively high number of primary casualties in the first election after redistrict- the area. Billboards ing. In 2002, eight House incumbents lost in the primaries, the same number that sprouted around the were defeated in the general election. Each decade below starts with the second year since this is when new congressional district lines traditionally take effect. district that claimed: “Experience … Makes The chart was compiled using data aggregated from Vital Statistics on American Poli- It Happen.” Murtha tics 2005-2006 (CQ Press). won the primary, but % of Total Each Decade Decade Primaries General Total just barely, with 51% of Defeated in Primaries the vote. 1952-60 29 126 155 19% In 2002, he had 1962-70 42 129 171 25% another primary as 1972-80 34 116 150 23% redistricting threw 1982-90 18 72 90 20% him into a new district 1992-2000 29 91 120 24% with Democratic Rep. 2002-04 10 15 25 40% Frank Mascara. Once TOTAL, 1952-2004 162 549 711 23%

(Continued on Page 13)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 11 U.S. House Seats by Party Since 2000

25 Democrat 24 Republican 23 22 21 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 16 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2000 2002 2004

Remapping Texas: From Democratic to Republican in Four Short Years

Since the election of 2000, Texas’ House delegation has gone from a 4-seat Democratic advantage (17-to-13) to a 10-seat Republican edge (21-to-11). In the process, Texas now supplies more GOP House seats than any other state and has helped Republicans preserve their House majority on Capitol Hill. But while a controversial GOP-inspired redistricting in 2003 was largely responsible for the turn- around in the Texas delegation, the result basically reflects the Republican dominance in other major statewide races of late in Texas.

Total House Other Texas Election Contests (and Pluralities) Election Reps. Dems. Other Plurality Vote Pres. Senate Gov. 2000 5,985,763 49% 47% 4% 133,360 R R by 1,365,893 R by 2,051,776 - 2002 4,295,210 53% 44% 3% 405,545 R - R by 540,485 R by 812,793 2004 6,958,603 58% 39% 3% 1,298,566 R R by 1,694,213 - - Source: America Votes 24, 25, 26 (CQ Press).

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 12 (Continued from Page 11) again, Murtha was better financed and better connected than his rival, and won the primary by a margin of nearly 2-to-1. On the other hand, in his three terms in the Senate, Lieberman has never had to face Democratic primary voters. In Connecticut, a pre-primary convention has traditionally acted as a filter to limit access to the primary ballot. But since Lieberman’s re-election in 2000, Connecticut has passed an open primary law, which enables potential challengers to skip the convention and file directly for the primary. For what it is worth, when the bulk of the New England states held presidential primaries in early March 2004, Howard Dean won 54% of the Democratic primary vote in his home state of Vermont while Lieberman took just 5% of the Democratic primary vote in Connecticut. Both had withdrawn from the presidential race weeks earlier but their names remained on the ballot. Whether that mod- est showing under such circumstanc- Overrepresented, Underrepresented: es should cause Lieberman much Current Republican House Strength in the Larger States concern for a Sen- The pre-2004 Republican redistricting of Texas’ congressional districts turned the Lone ate primary in Star state into one where the GOP is overrepresented in its share of House seats, when his home state is compared to the party’s statewide share of the total House vote. In 2004, Republicans dubious. But the received 58% of the aggregate statewide congressional vote in Texas while capturing fact remains, he is 66% of the state’s U.S. House seats (21 of 32). Yet such a disparity is not unusual with untested in such a the winner-take-all format of federal elections, and the differential was even wider in 2004 in a number of other large states where Republicans controlled the redistricting contest. process. The list below includes those states with at least 10 congressional districts. The primary fil- GOP Share GOP Share of Differential - ing deadline for GOP Total State Region of All ‘04 House GOP Share of Seats Seats Democratic Sen- Seats Vote Seats vs. Votes ate candidates in Republicans Overrepresented: Connecticut has Ohio Midwest 12 18 67% 51% + 16% yet to be set but is likely to be early South 18 25 72% 59% + 13% June, with the pri- Pennsylvania Northeast 12 19 63% 50% + 13% mary on August Virginia South 8 11 73% 60% + 13% 8. Meanwhile, Michigan Midwest 9 15 60% 49% + 11% the primary filing Texas South 21 32 66% 58% + 8% deadline in Penn- North Carolina South 7 13 54% 51% + 3% sylvania is March Illinois Midwest 9 19 47% 46% + 1% 7, with the prima- New Jersey Northeast 6 13 46.2% 46.1% + 0.1% ry itself scheduled Republicans Underrepresented: for May 16. California West 20 53 38% 43% - 5% But before either Georgia South 7 13 54% 61% - 7% state comes New York Northeast 9 29 31% 39% - 8% Texas, and the Massachusetts Northeast 0 10 0% 17% - 17% first day of reck- NATIONAL 232 435 53% 50% + 3% oning in 2006 for Source: America Votes 26 (CQ Press). Tom DeLay.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 13 2006 Primary Calendar: Who Can Vote Where

This election years opens with nearly 166 million Americans registered on voting rolls across the country. But who can vote in party primaries varies from state to state. Nearly half the states do not register voters by party and as a consequence hold “open” prima- ries, in which all registered voters can participate in the party primary of their choice. The other states do register voters by party and conduct primaries of two basic types. Some party-registration states hold “closed” primaries, in which only voters registered with the party may participate. Others have what are termed “semi-open” primaries, in which independent (or in some cases, vot- ers affiliated with a third party or even the other major party) are permitted to participate under conditions that vary from state to state. In a few states the parties are free to adopt their own rules on primary participation, and each has adopted a different set of rules.

The state-by-state list below is based on rules on congressional primary participation in effect in 2004. Usually, few, if any states, change their rules from one election to another, and nearly all of those that do involve the participation of independent voters in states with party registration.

Voter registration totals are the latest readily available. An asterisk (*) indicates that the state publishes totals of both active and inactive voters. The total of active voters is presented in the chart. The total of inactive voters is listed in a footnote at the bottom of the chart. A dash (-) indicates there is no registration by party. Percentages do not always add to 100 due to rounding.

Primary Registration by Party Runoff Registered Primary Participation Date D-R ‘04 Pres. Plurality (if needed) Voters Dems. Reps. Others (‘04) Plurality Texas March 7 April 11 Open Nov. ‘05 11,363,783 - - - - Bush by 1,694,213 Illinois March 21 - Open Nov. ‘04 7,499,488 - - - - Kerry by 545,604 Indiana May 2 - Open Nov. ‘04 4,296,602 - - - - Bush by 510,427 North Carolina May 2 May 30 Semi-open Jan. ‘06 5,418,729 46% 35% 19% 615,381 D Bush by 435,317 Ohio May 2 - Open Oct. ‘05 7,684,213 - - - - Bush by 118,601 Nebraska May 9 - Semi-open Nov. ‘04 1,160,199 34% 50% 16% 179,014 R Bush by 258,486 Closed (D)/ West Virginia May 9 - Nov. ‘05 1,131,897 57% 30% 12% 307,546 D Bush by 97,237 Semi-open (R) Kentucky May 16 - Closed Dec. ‘05 2,705,335 57% 36% 6% 563,016 D Bush by 356,706 Oregon May 16 - Closed Aug. ‘05 2,051,477 39% 36% 25% 55,621 D Kerry by 76,332 Pennsylvania May 16 - Closed Nov. ‘05 8,073,337 48% 41% 12% 548,773 D Kerry by 144,248 Arkansas May 23 June 13 Open Nov. ‘05 1,671,831 - - - - Bush by 102,945 Idaho May 23 - Open March ‘05 715,161 - - - - Bush by 228,137 Alabama June 6 June 27 Open Dec. ‘05 2,417,562 - - - - Bush by 482,461 Semi-open (D)/ California June 6 - Oct. ‘05 15,891,482 43% 35% 23% 1,260,579 D Kerry by 1,235,659 Closed (R) Iowa June 6 - Semi-open Dec. ‘05 1,978,491 30% 31% 39% 7,359 R Bush by 10,059 Mississippi June 6 June 27 Open April ‘04 1,791,666 Bush by 226,887 Montana June 6 - Open Nov. ‘04 638,474 - - - - Bush by 92,353 New Jersey June 6 - Semi-open Nov. ‘05 4,832,825 24% 18% 58% 263,323 D Kerry by 241,427 New Mexico June 6 - Closed Dec. ‘05 1,063,962 50% 33% 18% 179,541 D Bush by 5,988 South Dakota June 6 June 20 Closed Nov. ‘05 491,796 38% 48% 14% 47,049 R Bush by 83,340 Maine June 13 - Semi-open Nov. ‘04 1,023,956 31% 28% 41% 31,746 D Kerry by 66,641 North Dakota June 13 - Open ------Bush by 85,599

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 14 Primary Registration by Party Runoff Registered Primary Participation Date D-R ‘04 Pres. Plurality (if needed) Voters Dems. Reps. Others (‘04) Plurality South Carolina June 13 June 27 Open Jan. ‘06 2,400,358 - - - - Bush by 276,275 Virginia June 13 - Open Jan. ‘06 4,254,912 - - - - Bush by 262,217 Open (D)/ Utah June 27 - Jan. ‘06 1,631,840 - - - - Bush by 422,543 Closed (R) Georgia July 18 Aug. 8 Open Jan. ‘06 4,199,659 - - - - Bush by 548,105 Oklahoma July 25 Aug. 22 Closed Jan. ‘05 2,149,557 51% 38% 11% 278,132 D Bush by 455,826 Kansas Aug. 1 - Semi-open Oct. ‘04 1,694,365 27% 46% 27% 328,590 R Bush by 301,463 Tennessee Aug. 3 - Open Dec. ‘04 3,388,573 - - - - Bush by 347,898 Colorado Aug. 8 - Semi-open Dec. ‘05 2,887,735 30% 36% 34% 173,000 R Bush by 99,523 Connecticut Aug. 8 - Closed Oct. ‘05 1,952,648 33% 22% 45% 225,252 D Kerry by 163,662 Michigan Aug. 8 - Open Oct. ‘04 7,164,047 - - - - Kerry by 165,437 Missouri Aug. 8 - Open Nov. ‘04 4,194,146 - - - - Bush by 196,542 Nevada Aug. 15 - Closed Nov. ‘05 1,011,394 40% 41% 19% 8,257 R Bush by 21,500 Alaska Aug. 22- Semi-open Jan. ‘06 462,662 15% 25% 61% 45,915 R Bush by 79,864 Wyoming Aug. 22 - Semi-open Feb. ‘05 251,774 26% 62% 13% 90,119 R Bush by 96,853 Florida Sept. 5 - Closed Nov. ‘05 10,491,147 41% 38% 21% 326,542 D Bush by 380,978 Arizona Sept. 12 - Semi-open Oct. ‘05 2,664,147 34% 40% 26% 148,850 R Bush by 210,770 Delaware Sept. 12 - Closed Jan. ‘06 545,371 44% 32% 23% 64,594 D Kerry by 28,492 Maryland Sept. 12 - Closed Sept. ‘05 3,079,391 55% 29% 16% 792,329 D Kerry by 309,790 Minnesota Sept. 12 - Open Aug. ‘05 3,114,459 - - - - Kerry by 98,319 New Hampshire Sept. 12 - Semi-open Nov. ‘04 855,861 27% 31% 42% 38,746 R Kerry by 9,274 New York Sept. 12 - Closed Nov. ‘05 11,619,137 47% 27% 26% 2,329,189 D Kerry by 1,351,713 Rhode Island Sept. 12 - Semi-open Jan. ‘06 659,710 38% 11% 51% 177,876 D Kerry by 90,714 Vermont Sept. 12 - Open Nov. ‘04 444,077 - - - - Kerry by 62,887 Wisconsin Sept. 12 - Open ------Kerry by 11,384 Massachusetts Sept. 19 - Semi-open Oct. ‘04 4,098,634 37% 13% 50% 994,392 D Kerry by 732,691 Washington Sept. 19 - Open Nov. ‘05 3,374,541 - - - - Kerry by 205,307 Hawaii Sept. 23 - Open Nov. ‘04 647,238 - - - - Kerry by 37,517 Louisiana Nov. 7 Dec. 9 Open Jan. ‘06 2,686,488 55% 24% 20% 823,390 D Bush by 281,870 Note: An asterisk (*) indicates the state keeps a separate total of inactive voters, with the most recent tally as follows: Alabama, 244,929; Connecticut, 133,961; Iowa, 126,428; Louisiana, 159,176; Maryland, 199,281; South Dakota, 38,921; Tennessee, 383,315; Texas, 1,213,762 (called “suspense voters”); and Virginia, 212,759 inactive voters and 2,540 overseas voters. Colorado party registration totals are based on a combination of active and inactive voters. Utah is phasing in party registration. In January 2006, there were 132,740 registered Republicans in Utah and 116,323 registered Democrats. North Dakota does not have voter registration. Wisconsin is in the process of instituting state- wide voter registration, but no numbers are available as yet. Source: Federal Election Commission (for 2006 primary dates); America Votes 26 (for rules on primary participation by state in 2004 and Bush-Kerry pluralities in ‘04); state election boards (for recent voter registration figures).

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 15 TWO YEARS TO IOWA: If Democrats Have Their Way, Iowa and New Hampshire Will Have Some Company in ‘08

irtually everyone who follows the presidential nominating process believes the present sys- Vtem is far from ideal. But after a year of reviewing the process, the latest Democratic rules commission decided that tweaking the calendar for the party’s 2008 primary season was better than attempting a wholesale overhaul. At its final meeting in Washington, D.C., December 10, the commission proposed adding a mix of two to four more states to the opening round of voting currently dominated by Iowa and New Hampshire. And it recommended that bonus delegates be awarded states that vote after early March 2008 in a bid to reverse the severe “front-loading” that has come to characterize the nomi- nating process. While there was widespread sentiment within the commission for a more thorough revision of the primary calendar, it was generally viewed as impossible without the agreement of Republicans. With the GOP setting their nominating rules from convention to convention, that would mean a massive bipartisan overhaul of the process could not take place before 2012 at the earliest. The commission’s proposals now go to the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the national party and then to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for approval or modification, with final action expected by this summer. Over the last four decades, a sequence of Democratic panels has written and rewritten the party’s nominating rules. The latest incarnation, the Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling, was co-chaired by Rep. David Price of North Carolina and former Labor Secretary Alexis Herman. Its 40 members included an array of Democratic elected officials, party leaders, and representatives from organized labor and advocacy groups related to the party. The commission held several meetings throughout 2005, hearing witnesses and discussing a range of issues – from the role of money in the nominating process to methods of voter identification. Yet the focus throughout was on the nominating calendar, particularly the outsized role that Iowa and New Hampshire have enjoyed in their leadoff spots. The two states have drawn criticism over the years for being too small and too homogenously white to command such coveted positions in the nominating process. At its final meeting, the commission voted to let Iowa remain the first caucus state in 2008 and New Hampshire the first primary state. But it adopted a plan to force both states to share the lime- light with others by adding one or two first-tier caucuses between Iowa and New Hampshire (a span of eight days in 2004) and one or two more primaries between New Hampshire and the first Tuesday in February (a span of seven days last time). The first Tuesday in February is the earliest date that states other than Iowa and New Hampshire are currently allowed to vote under Democratic rules, which in Democratic Party parlance is called “inside the window.” Earlier events are termed “pre-window.”

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 16 The commission designated the party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to decide which states would be added to the “pre-window” mix in 2008, with the recommendation that racial, ethnic, regional and economic diversity be taken into account. “This is an incremental solution,” said Price of the commission’s final product, “neither radical nor trivial.” But some on the commission viewed the proposed changes as not radical enough. They mount- ed an eleventh-hour bid at the December meeting to knock Iowa and New Hampshire from their preeminent perches by proposing elimination of the “pre-window” period altogether. The mea- sure was backed by Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, whose long and strenuous opposition to the Iowa-New Hampshire lock on the opening spots on the nominating calendar led to the creation of the Price-Herman commission in the first place. “Iowa and New Hampshire are more equal than others,” Levin argued, “many, many times more equal. We’ve got to change the status quo.” Levin was joined by some of the more prominent members of the commission, including former DNC Chair Donald Fowler, a veteran of past Democratic rules panels, and Donna Brazile, manag- er of Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign. Both maintained that they began the year seeing little need for the commission to change the status quo, but had come to the conclusion that broader reform was necessary. Defenders of the commission’s more incremental approach responded that it would be danger- ous to adopt so major a change without significant study. And they warned that elimination of the “pre-window” period would create a huge pile-up of events in early February that in all like- lihood would amount to a “de facto” national primary. The proposal to eliminate the “pre-win- dow” period was defeated by a vote of 18-to-9. In 2004, seven states voted on the first Tuesday in February; a total of 19 states held Democratic primaries or caucuses by the end of February. In a bid to break the logjam of states that are already clustered in the first few weeks of the primary season, the commission recommended creation of a graded system of bonus delegates that would be awarded states that scheduled their primary or caucus after March 3, 2008. The Republicans experimented with delegate bonuses of 5% to 10% for later voting states in 2000 but found few takers. The Price-Herman commission proposed delegate bonuses of 15% to 40%, with the hope that the larger rewards would provide greater inducement for states to take a later date on the calendar. Unprompted, California has already moved its primary back to June, ending its flirtation with dates in March that lasted from 1996 through 2004.

Following are the major recommendations of the Democratic Commission on Presiden- tial Nomination and Timing:

Pre-Window Period (before February 5, 2008): The first caucus of 2008 would once again be held in Iowa and the first primary in New Hamp- shire. There would be one or two first-tier caucuses held between Iowa and New Hampshire, and one or two primaries held between New Hampshire and the first Tuesday in February (Feb. 5, 2008), when the rest of the country could begin voting.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 17 The Rules and Bylaws Committee would set the date for the opening event in Iowa, which would be no earlier than Monday, Jan. 14, 2008. The Rules and Bylaws Committee would also decide which states would be added to the pre- window period to join Iowa and New Hampshire, taking into account: racial and ethnic diversity; regional diversity; and economic diversity, including labor union density.

Inside the Window Period (February 5, 2008, and after): Every effort should be made to limit the number of contests in any given week to no more than five. In order to encourage states to vote later in the delegate-selection process, bonus delegates would be offered if states held their primary or first-tier caucuses in 2008 during the following time peri- ods: March 4 – March 17 = 15% bonus March 18 – April 7 = 20% bonus April 8 – April 28 = 30% bonus April 29 – June 10 = 40% bonus Iowa, New Hampshire and the Fight to be First

For a generation now, Iowa and New Hampshire have anchored the opening stage of the presidential nominating process – Iowa as the first caucus state, New Hampshire as the first primary state. Over the last three decades, the date of the Iowa precinct caucuses has skipped around the winter calendar – sometimes landing in February, sometimes in January. At the same time, the date of the New Hampshire primary has gradually moved forward more than a month, from early March in 1972 to late January in 2004. An asterisk (*) indicates that Delaware Democrats in 2000 held a non-binding primary on Feb. 5, but no binding Democratic primaries after New Hampshire were held that year until March 7.

Election Dates Since 1972 Election Iowa Caucuses New Hampshire Primary Next Primary 1972 JJanuaryanuary 2244 March 7 March 14 (Fla.) 1976 January 19 February 24 March 2 (Mass., Vt.) 1980 January 21 February 26 March 4 (Mass., Vt.) 1984 February 20 February 28 March 6 (Vt.) 1988 February 8 February 16 February 23 (S.D.) 1992 February 10 February 18 February 25 (S.D.) 1996 February 12 February 20 February 24 (Del.) 2000 January 24 February 1 February 8 (Del.)* February 3 2004 January 19 January 27 (Ariz., Del., Mo., Okla., S.C.) Sources: Race for the Presidency: Winning the 2004 Nomination and Congressional Quarterly’s Guide to U.S. Election Fourth Edition, Volume I (both published by CQ Press).

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 18 The Changing Composition of the 109th Congress

House of Representatives Senate Date and Event Reps. Dems. Ind. Vac. Reps. Dems. Ind. 2004 ELECTION 232 202 1 55 44 1 Jan. 1, 2005 - Rep. Robert Matsui (D-Calif. 5) dies of pneumonia 232 201 1 1 complicated by a rare blood disorder. March 8, 2005 - (D) wins special election in the 232 202 1 California 5th to succeed her late husband. April 29, 2005 - Rep. (R-Ohio 2) resigns to become U.S. 231 202 1 1 trade representative. Aug. 2, 2005 - Special election in Ohio 2nd won by Jean Schmidt (R). 232 202 1 Aug. 2, 2005 - Rep. (R-Calif. 48) resigns to become 231 202 1 1 chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Dec. 1, 2005 - Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham (R-Calif. 50) formally 230 202 1 2 resigns after pleading guilty to accepting bribes and . Dec. 6, 2005 - Special election in Calif. 48th won by John Campbell (R). 231 202 1 1 Jan. 17, 2006 - Sen. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) resigns to become governor of New Jersey. Rep. Robert Menendez (D-N.J. 13), appointed by 231 201 1 2 55 44 1 Corzine to be his successor, is sworn in Jan. 18. ... AND THE GOVERNORSHIPS Reps. Dems. 2004 ELECTION 28 22 Jan. 20, 2005 - Gov. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) resigns to become secretary of agri- 28 22 culture. Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman is sworn in Jan. 21 to succeed him. Nov 8, 2005 - Sen. Jon Corzine (D) elected governor of New Jersey to succeed Acting Gov. Richard Codey (D), who is retiring. Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D) elected gov 28 22 ernor of Virginia to succeed Gov. Mark Warner (D), who could not seek reelection.

Special House Elections in 2005-06

All three special House elections in 2005 were held in what could be considered one-party districts, yet only one of the winners - Democrat Doris Matsui of the California 5th - was elected with more than 52% of the vote. Republican John Campbell was held to a plurality victory in Southern California’s 48th District, where the anti-immigration candidacy of American Independent Party candidate drew 25.5% of the vote. Republican Jean Schmidt won a bare majority of the vote in the -area Ohio 2nd.

Results below are from the decisive round of voting when the member was elected. Campbell and Schmidt were second-round victors. Mrs. Matsui won in the first round, an open primary where candidates of all parties ran together on a single ballot. Two vacancies cur- rently remain to be filled.

District Former Member New Member Election Turnout Dem. Rep. Other ‘04 Pres. Winner California 5 Robert Matsui (D) Doris Matsui (D) March 8, 2005 82,396 68.2% - - Kerry by 23% Ohio 2 Rob Portman (R) Jean Schmidt (R) Aug. 2, 2005 115,576 48.4% 51.6% - Bush by 28% California 48 Christopher Cox (R) John Campbell (R) Dec. 6, 2005 103,948 27.8% 44.4% 27.8% Bush by 18% Vacancies to be filled: Randy “Duke” California 50 - April 11/June 6* Bush by 11% Cunningham (R) New Jersey 13 Robert Menendez (D) - To be scheduled Kerry by 38% Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that the June 6 election in the California 50th would be held only if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round of voting April 11.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • January 2006 19