ESCAP/WMO No. 16 August 2004

T YPHOON COMMITTEE NEWSLETTER

water-related disasters continued to Thirty Sixth Session of the Committee cause adverse socio-economic impacts in many countries in Asia-Pacific region in recent years even as he called for greater efforts to improve disaster preparedness of the public for a better living with risk for a safer world in the 21st century, as stipu- lated in the Johannesburg Plan of Imple- mentation (JPOI) of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), held in September 2002.

Ti also noted the continued increase in support from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) and Infrastructure Development Institute (IDI) of in the implementation of the new RCPIP of TC, and also the plan of the Ministry of Construction and Transporta- tion (MOCT) of South to start a new Delegates to the thirty-sixth session of the Typhoon Committee at Hotel Armada, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia program that would support these (15 to 20 December 2003). common endeavors.

Eisa H. Al-Majed, representative of the Commission on Atmospheric Sciences WMO, reported that the World Meteoro- Senior weather officials from Asia- (CAS), Asian Disaster Reduction Center Pacific countries continued efforts to logical Congress in May 2003 established (ADRC), Asian Disaster Preparedness a new WMO major program on natural achieve development goals set by the Center (ADPC), the Russian Federation, ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee to disaster prevention and mitigation aimed and Department of Roshydromet. at enhancing international cooperation in mitigate the adverse effects of tropical cyclones in the Asia-Pacific region. the field of natural disaster activities. Speaking at the session's opening, Malaysian Meteorological Service More than 70 experts from national Al-Majed encouraged the members to Director-General Chow Kok Kee noted that facilitate the transfer of the latest fore- weather agencies of members of TC, the membership of the Committee had namely, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, casting techniques, and to develop and increased and many new activities were organize training courses, even as he Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, carried out to enhance the capacity of the , Thailand and the United assured the participants that WMO would members in addressing the wide continue to assist NMHSs in their develop- States, convened at the thirty-sixth spectrum of issues related to tropical session of TC, held in Petaling Jaya, ment plans through, among others, storms, disaster prevention and prepared- resource mobilization for the implementa- Malaysia, from 15 to 20 December 2003. ness. He added that the Committee tion of regional projects and programs. demonstrated the pragmatic cooperation The annual session, hosted by the among its members most of which took Government of Malaysia, was also The session, after discussing the part actively in the programs and activi- report of the Interim Working Group (IWG) attended by representatives of the World ties that were organized by the Typhoon Meteorological Organization (WMO), on the Regional Cooperation Program Im- Committee Secretariat. plementation Plan (RCPIP), established Economic and Social Commission in Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), Typhoon Commit- the Working Group on the Review of the ESCAP Representative Le-Huu Ti said Operations and Structure of the Typhoon tee Secretariat (TCS), and observers from at the meeting that tropical cyclones and

Contents 36th Typhoon Committee Session ...... 1 Typhoon 2003 Typhoon Committee Natural Disaster Committee WMO Prevention Award ...... 4 Secretariat T Changes ...... 4

Manila, Philippines News from TC Members ...... 5 ESCAP WG ROSTY Meeting ...... 14 strengthen capacity build- Workshop on Implementation ing on tropical cyclone of the Hydrological Compo- forecasting and other two nent of the New RCPIP and components (hydrology requested TCS, in cooperation and DPP); with the Ministry of Construc- • to continue the TRCG tion and Transportation fellowship scheme; and (MOCT) of South Korea, • to plan a regional work- to organize a 4-day workshop shop in 2005 to stimulate for TC hydrologists on Living joint collaboration among with Risk: Dealing with the meteorology, hydrology Typhoon-related Disasters as and DPP components. Part of Integrated Water Re- source Management, to be At the meeting, the Com- held in Seoul in 2004. In mittee was informed by JMA preparation for the workshop, on the start of the joint the Committee agreed to: Director-General Chow Kok Kee of the Malaysian Meteorological operation of GMS-5/GOES-9 in Service (MMS) welcomes the session participants. May 2003 in collaboration • request Japan and South with NOAA/NESDIS. JMA Korea to provide the Committee (WG ROSTY). The WG ROSTY to submit specific added that the NMHSs of services of experts to WG ROSTY was tasked to results and action-oriented members could now retrieve prepare for the organiza- th conduct further study of the themes for the 37 session satellite imagery either by tion of the workshop, options and proposals of IWG of TC. receiving WEFAX from GMS-5 including holding a pre- related to the operations and or by direct reception of paratory task force meet- structure of TC, and to submit On resource mobilization, GOES GVAR data. China also ing in South Korea at an detailed proposals at the next the Committee appointed a informed the Committee that early stage, to facilitate the session of TC. The options and rapporteur from the Japan its new satellite, FY-2C, was exchange of experiences proposals of IWG were: Meteorological Agency (JMA) set to be launched in 2004. and to prepare program for to prepare a synthesis report follow-up action taking into • changes to the methodo- based on the responses of The Committee noted the account the priority logy and implementation the members to a question- report of the working group on accorded in the RCPIP; of new technologies which naire, and to submit the report a Unified North-West Pacific • request TCS, with assis- may lead to efficiencies of to WG ROSTY for the develop- Tropical Cyclone Best Track tance from ESCAP and TC, TC coordinator and the ment of one or two project Data Set and approved the Japan, to encourage all TCS; proposals on implementing plan to produce a data set focal points for the • new framework of priori- resource mobilization. named Expanded Best Track hydrological component ties for activities of TC; The Committee requested • new reporting formats for its members, TCS and all the the five components of working groups to update the RCPIP of TC together with RCPIP. It also endorsed a new the mechanisms aimed at format of the country report improving the implementa- with only three main compo- tion of RCPIP; nents to be applied at its next • Collaborative activities session. among the five compo- nents of RCPIP; The Committee reorgan- • mobilization of resources ized the Working Group on to achieve the goals and Hydrology (WGH) which will objectives of TC; and oversee the planning and WMO, MMS, ESCAP and TCS top officials • updates to the Statute of promotion of cooperation TC, and Rules and Proce- among the members in carry- Data Set for the Western and DPP and meteorologi- dures of TC. ing out the hydrological North Pacific and the South cal resource persons to component of RCPIP. The China Sea (EBT). The mem- prepare for the workshop; participants were urged to Under the options for bers will produce the EBT in • request ESCAP to assist collaborative activities, the implement the Typhoon cooperation with the RSMC Research Coordination Group TCS and South Korea in Committee agreed that the Tokyo-Typhoon Center which preparing the technical three components (meteo- (TRCG) action plan in the in turn will submit a yearly promotion of research activi- program of the workshop; rology, hydrology, and DPP) progress report (on EBT) to the • should hold their cor- ties, such as: allocate one day of the Committee. 4-day workshop to discuss responding pre-sessions a day before the start of the 37th • to continue the roving detailed proposal on The Committee also follow-up actions; and session, to be followed by a seminars under the visiting noted the report of the plenary pre-session for the lecturer program in order extend, if possible, the pre-session meeting of workshop by one day, three components interaction. to promote research and hydrologists which included The Committee requested the development, and to w i t h o u t f i n a n c i a l the recommendations of the requirements from TCTF,

Page 2 August 2004 Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 for the participants' field order to maximize the use of work for the preparation its resources. exercise on flood hazard. The Committee thanked The Committee urged TCS the Korea International Coop- and the members to join the eration Agency (KOICA) for the International Flood Network Training Workshop on (IFNET). The IFNET Secretariat Weather Forecasting for was requested to provide the Operational Meteorologists in members with related infor- Seoul in April/May 2003. The mation on developments of its next KOICA workshop will be projects on the Global Flood held in April or May 2004. Alert System (GFAS). Philippine and Malaysian representatives The Committee also noted ESCAP joined the WMO in Germany), and Partnership Preparedness (DPP) activities the important contribution of supporting the initiative of on Disaster Reduction in among the Meteorological, the National Research Insti- Japan in the establishment of Southeast Asia and the Inter- Hydrological and DPP compo- tute for Earth Science and the International Flood Net- national Flood Network nents. Disaster Prevention (NIED) of work (IFNET), which was for- (IFNET), in cooperation with Japan for the development of mally launched in August WMO on its initiative on GFAS. The Asian Disaster Reduc- prediction method of flood 2003 during the World Water tion Center (ADRC) circulated runoff and inundation Week held in Stockholm. With respect to the 3rd an updated list of Internet combined by the scaling and ESCAP expects that coopera- World Water Forum, financial websites which the members probability theory, which has tion, through the IFNET, would resources were provided by of TC can access for informa- been very effective for tion on meteorology, hydrology ungauged basins. and DPP, even as it invited the members to provide additional The Committee also gave information. its support to the attendance of TC experts at the 2nd The Committee encour- Regional Technical Confer- aged the WGH to interact ence on Tropical Cyclones, with other international orga- Storm Surges and Floods, and nizations and forums working the International Conference on water-related disasters, on Storms, to be held in including ADRC and the Asian Brisbane, Australia, from 1 to Disaster Preparedness Center 9 July 2004. (ADPC). The Philippine representa- Members noted the tive informed the session that ESCAP representative Le-Huu Ti important contribution of the apart from hosting TCS, it Micronesian Meteorologist would also provide the be strengthened, especially in MLIT of Japan to enhance the Intern Program, and the services of an expert on Infor- connection with its initiative participation of TC in the Pacific Desk Program, mation and Communication on GFAS, as the director of the forum with a view to increase conducted by the RSMC Technology (ICT) at TCS, and WMO Department on Hydrol- visibility of TC's programs on Honolulu-Hurricane Center, in contribute to the Typhoon ogy and Water Resources was hydrology, particularly flood the training component of TC. Committee Trust Fund (TCTF) elected as IFNET chairman management and disaster They reiterated the need to annually. and the Secretariat, headed prevention and preparedness. produce CD-ROMS in TCTF- by the director of the Second sponsored workshops and The next session of the TC Research Branch of the Apart from the above seminars for distribution to will take place in Shanghai, Infrastructure Development activities, ESCAP continued to both participating and China in mid-November 2004. Institute-Japan as its provide advisory services, on non-participating members in secretary-general. request, in the field of water resources planning and Expanded cooperation development including hydro- within the framework of logical network development, ESCAP Work Program in flood loss prevention, normally support of activities of TC for periods from one to two members continued rapidly in weeks at any one time 2003 in relation to various depending upon the terms of international initiatives, reference for the services. including activities related to the Third World Water Forum The Committee noted the (Kyoto, Japan), Second members’ willingness to International Conference on enhance interaction of Ear ly War ning (Bo nn, Disaster Prevention and WMO representative Eisa H. Al-Majed

Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 August 2004 Page 3

US hurricane center reaps Typhoon Committee 2003 disaster prevention award

Typhoon Committee Foundation, Inc. (TCFI). RSMC Honolulu director James Weyman received the award on behalf of the Center during the awarding ceremony held at Armada Hotel in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, on 15 December 2003.

The annual TC award, first presented in 1989, was conceptualized with the objective of encouraging individuals and organizations to give more importance to efforts on improving tropical cyclone disaster management and prevention, particu- larly, in the Asia-Pacific region.

The RSMC Honolulu, US National Weather Service, was honored for its valuable contribution and distinguished efforts in the improvements to weather services and systems in operation, particularly, the system to improve tropical cyclone forecasts such as the EMWIN satellite communication system which is proving to be the most reliable method for receiving forecasts and warnings Director J. C. Weyman (right) of RSMC Honolulu Hurricane Center accepts to small-island states in the Pacific Ocean region; in providing the 2003 Typhoon Committee Natural Disaster Prevention Award from TCFI training for forecasters such as the RSMC Pacific Training Desk Chairman R. Kintanar. which focuses on capacity building in the meteorological services of the small island states; and in providing tropical cyclone The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) products and services for the central Pacific keeping the general Honolulu Hurricane Center was the recipient of the 2003 Typhoon public and governmental agencies informed of impending severe Committee Natural Disaster Prevention Award given by the weather and other disturbances.

a steady flow of accurate and tions on the Joint Staff with focused environmental infor- planning portfolios in Europe/ T Changes mation to battlefield com- NATO and Asia/Pacific. He manders. He was a key secured funding for a new advisor in the development of facility for the Air Force day management of NOAA's the National Polar-orbiting Weather Agency to house domestic weather and hydrol- Environmental Operational collection, analysis, modeling ogy operations. Satellite System (NPOESS). and career-field supervision

functions. Prior to joining NOAA, Johnson's career is Johnson served as the U.S. Air marked by his strong manage- Prior to his service as the Force director of weather. He ment and fiscal capabilities. director of weather, Johnson retired from the Air Force as a During his time as director of flew fighter, transport and brigadier general, after a 30- weather, he led a massive special operations aircraft. He year military career. As reengineering effort that has over 3,800 flying hours director of weather, he was revised the organizational including 78 combat sorties. David L. Johnson one of ten directors at the structure, training and opera- Johnson commanded airdrop Head-quarters Air Force, Air tions of the 4,000-person and air/land operations in and Space Operations, and Johnson heads career field. Under Johnson's Bosnia-Herzegovina and was was responsible for develop- NOAA/NWS steady hand, retention of deputy commander of the i n g d o c t r i n e , p o l i c y , weather-career airmen and Joint Task Force for Operation requirements and operational officers grew to 97 percent, up Support Hope in Rwanda. He Brigadier General (USAF organizations to support Air from 74 percent previously. was selected for early retired David L. Johnson has Force and Army operations promotion three times. been appointed as the Assis- worldwide. He also served as tant Administrator, National one of NOAA's military Johnson guided the plan- Oceanic and Atmospheric deputies. ning, programming and bud- Johnson is an honor Administration (NOAA) for geting process implementa- graduate from the University Weather Services (National tion at the highest levels in of Kansas with a degree in Notably, he organized, Weather Service) vice Bgen. the Air Force and in the De- geography, and earned his trained and equipped forces John J. Kelly, Jr. He heads the partment of Defense. He has master's degree in human for the war in Afghanistan and nation's weather service and a world-wide perspective, hav- relations from Webster's the war in Iraq, and managed is responsible for the day-to- ing served in leadership posi- University. He is a graduate of

Page 4 August 2004 Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 the National War College, new director-general of the logical Societies, and National Anant Thensathit, 60, was Maxwell School of Citizenship Japan Meteorological Agency Committees for Polar and appointed new director- and Public Affairs at Syracuse (JMA). Nagasaka holds a B.Sc Oceanographic Research. He general of the Meteorological University, and from the Paul degree, Faculty of Science is the author of numerous Department of Thailand on 1 Nitze School of Advanced from Nagoya University. technical papers and publica- October 2003 succeeding International Studies at Jons tions. Prapansak Buranaprapa who Hopkins University. Nagasaka joined the JMA retired from service. in 1967 assigned at the Oceanographical Division of New director general Anant, who joined the Thai Maizuru Marine Observatory. of TMD named Department as a junior mete- Nagasaka succeeds Prior to his appointment as orologist in 1967, holds a B. Kitade director general, he served as Sc degree in Mathematics and director of different divisions Meteorology from Chulalong- and departments of JMA, korn University (Thailand) and including the Fukuoka District Florida State University (USA), Meteorological Observatory, respectively.

from 1993 to 2004. Anant was holding the

Nagasaka, who has position of deputy director been involved in the interna- general of TMD prior to his

tional activities mainly in the designation as director- framework of WMO, is a mem- general. He received the Koichi Nagasaka ber of several academic so- Knight Grand Cross (First cieties and national commit- Anant Thensathit Class) of the most Noble Koichi Nagasaka, 59, tees in Japan, including the Order of the Crown of succeeded Takeo Kitade as Oceanographic and Meteoro- Thailand.

News from TC Members

By the end of 2003, a new experimen- GRAPES_3D-VAR analysis results proved China tal GRAPES had been set up. GRAPES that the TOVS data is quite beneficial to consists of two essential parts: a 3D-VAR improve the initial conditions of a tropical

frame and a semi-implicit and semi- cyclone: much warmer core (see Fig. 1), Case studies of tropical cyclones lagrangian dynamical model with full cyclonic and anti-cyclonic tangential wind with GRAPES compressible and non-hydrostatical circulation better established (instead of approximation. Some case studies on

tropical cyclones have been carried out In 2001, the China Meteorological with the new GRAPES. The preliminary Administration (CMA) launched GRAPES results showed the potential capability of (Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction the new GRAPES on tropical cyclone System), a national key project, in order to predictions. develop next generation of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system. RAMMASUN typhoon case study. The a) without ATOVS b) with ATOVS by experiment was designed as: GRAPES-3D-VAR The major objectives of the project, GRAPES_3DVAR for the analysis; WRF (Fig. 1) The altitude-longitude cross section of aside from developing new NWP systems (Weather Research and Forecast) model the temperature deviation from the horizontal for both operational and research applica- for the numerical prediction; Initial time: averaged-temperature along 23ºN. tions based on the recent achievements 4th July 2002, at 15UTC; Conventional in atmospheric sciences, were to set up data with (or without) ATOVS radiances an only cyclonic circulation) in vertical a base for further development toward used for the simulation; Resolution of from low levels to upper levels (Fig. 2) and a new climate system model for the 0.5625º×0.5625º in horizontal and 31 more moist vertical structure. Conse- studies on climate change and operation layers in vertical; First guess and lateral quently, the typhoon track predictions are of short term climate prediction; enhance boundary conditions provided by the significantly improved. For example, after the link between academic research global operational model T213L31 of 45 hours from the initial time, the position and operation; and to accelerate the NMC/CMA; 45 hours for the forecast time. of RAMMASUN predicted by the model transfer of research results to operational with 3D-VAR is clearly situated east of the applications. In comparison to the background, the Korean peninsular, very closed to the

Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 August 2004 Page 5

12UTC; Conventional data with (or with- As expected, the better predictions of out) ATOVS (AMSU-A and AMSU-B) used intensity, position and spiral cloud band for the simulation; Resolution of structure for two : KONI and 0.5625º×0.5625º in horizontal and 31 IMBUDU, were found in comparison to layers in vertical; First guess and lateral the simulations without ATOVS data (Fig. boundary conditions provided by the 5). It proved again a positive impact of global operational model T213L31 of ATOVS on the analysis and prediction of NMC/CMA; 24 hours for the forecast time. tropical cyclone associated with the a) without ATOVS b) with ATOVS by GRAPES-3D-VAR severe weather events. (Fig. 2) The altitude-longitude cross section of the The number of data reports used for tangential wind along 23ºN. experiment, including ATOVS data, is about 15 times to those used by the position observed. In contrary, the current routine OI scheme: 32853 data position of RAMMASUN predicted by the reports against 2253 data reports model without ATOVS still stayed west of (Fig. 4). the Korean peninsular (see Fig. 3).

(Fig. 5) The fields of precipitations accumulated over 24 hours. Valid time: 00UTC/20/07/2003 ~ 00UTC/21/07/2003. On left-up, simulation by GRAPES without ATOVS; on right-up, simulation by GRAPES with ATOVS; at bottom, satellite imagery at 00UTC/21/07/2003.

(Fig. 4) The coverage of observations intro- (Fig. 3) Rammasun typhoon tracks observed All experiments presented above were duced by GRAPES_3D-VAR at initial time of (blue line) and predicted (red line: with ATOVS, carried out in a no-cyclonic mode. It is well 12 UTC/20/07/2003 for the KONI and green line: without ATOVS). recommended that the experiments need IMBUDU typhoon case studies. The blue points to be conducted in a cyclonic mode of indicate the AMSU-a profiles, the red points: KONI and IMBUDU double typhoon case AMSU-b profiles, the black crosses: radiosonde assimilation to test the accumulative study. The experiment was designed as: profiles. The ratio of the total observation effects of the continual impact of data GRAPES_3DVAR for the analysis; reports used in GRAPES 3D-VAR assimilation sets. GRAPES_SISL model for the numerical against the radiosonde reports is 32853 against prediction; Initial time: 20th July 2003, at 2253, about fifteen times!

The thirteenth National Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (NWTC- 13th National Workshop XIII) was held in Daishan County, Zhejiang province, from 10 to 14 on Tropical Cyclones April 2004. About 107 participants, from scientific research and operational departments, universities and polytechnics, and mili- tary and civil aviation sectors, attended the session. Topics in- cluded detecting technique, track, structure and intensity, wind and rain influence, and climatic aspects of tropical cyclones). For detailed information, log on to: www.typhoon.gov.cn.

China Typhoon Museum opened

The China Typhoon Museum, in Daishan County Zhejiang province, was opened to public on 10 December 2003. It is located beside the Kaomen Dam, a very famous dam in China known as “the First Dam against Typhoon in Zhejiang province”.

The Typhoon Museum is the first museum with a theme on disasters in China. It is a multi-function museum with a wide range of purposes, including science popularization, scientific research and tourism. Its total construction area is 5000 square th Opening of the 13 Session of National Workshop on Tropical Cyclones meters scheduled for completion in three stages. The first stage, (NWTC-XIII). which has been finished, covers an area of 2500 square meters

Page 6 August 2004 Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 mainly for demonstrating images, pictures, materials related to typhoons, etc. The second stage will function as an area for typhoon simulation and research, and the third stage will serve as a conference center.

Kaomen Dam in Zhejiang province China Typhoon Museum

Hong Kong The courses were met with very enthusiastic response, and a repeat was planned in early 2004 to meet public demand. Training courses on other topics are also in the pipeline.

Meteorological courses

conducted HK automates upper-air sounding operation

An Automatic Upper-air Sounding System was set up at the King’s Park Meteorological Station of the Hong Kong Observatory in early 2004, marking a new era of upper-air sounding in Hong Kong, China.

The system completely automates the HKO’s Automatic Upper-air processes of radiosonde preparation, balloon Sounding System filling and launching. It eliminates the risk associated with manual filling of balloons with hydrogen and manual launching in inclement weather conditions, in particular during the pas- sage of tropical cyclones. The outcome is increased efficiency, man- power savings, and enhanced personnel safety.

An officer of the Hong Kong Observatory lectures at a weather training course.

Severe turbulence during The Hong Kong Observatory conducted its first intro- typhoon Imbudo’s passage Location of LIDAR ductory meteorological courses for the general public and government personnel in 2003. A total of 31 flights reported en- A wide range of real-time weather information is now counter with turbulence at the Hong available on the Observatory’s web page. Besides using Kong International Airport (HKIA) personal computers at home or in the office, such weather during the passage of Typhoon IM- Lantau Island information is also accessible anywhere anytime through BUDO (0307) on 24 July 2003. Of the Observatory’s Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) website these encounters, 15 were moder- 1 km using a PDA. ate to severe turbulence. The Dop- pler Light Detection and Ranging LIDAR Doppler radial velocity display reveal- The courses are custom-designed to enable the (LIDAR) System operated by the ing small-scale wind disturbances with marked general public and government personnel to make good Hong Kong Observatory at the wind changes over a length scale of several hundred meters (see areas circled in red). use of the weather information on the web. Course partici- airport revealed the small-scale wind Cold/warm colors indicate winds blowing pants were taught the fundamental concepts of weather disturbances with a length scale of towards/away from the LIDAR. The white chart analysis, weather forecasting and interpretation of several hundred meters associated arrow indicates the background wind radar and satellite imageries. with the turbulence. direction.

Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 August 2004 Page 7 (Fig. 1) Predicted tracks for the Japan T0206 (CHATAAN) (Initial time: 00 UTC 6 July 2002) Black line: Analysis.

Blue line: Old TYM. JMA Typhoon Model improved Red line: New TYM.

The Typhoon Model (TYM) with a new physical process package was put into operation in July 2003 at the Japan (Fig. 2) Mean positional error of Meteorological Agency (JMA). In this package, a prognostic cloud TYM. scheme and radiation scheme including the direct effect of Blue bar (OLD) is the old TYM. aerosols were newly introduced. Along with this introduction, the Red bar (NEW) is the new TYM. prognostic Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization scheme Green Dots indicate the number of and the estimation of the roughness length on the sea surface in samples. TYM were modified.

Preliminary experiments with three typhoons in 2002 were carried out for 108 cases. Figure 1 shows the tracks for T0206 (CHATAAN) predicted by the old TYM and the new TYM, and the analyzed typhoon track. The recurvature of the typhoon move- ment was well predicted by the new TYM, while it was not pre- dictable for the old TYM. Figure 2 shows the comparison of the mean positional errors between the old TYM and the new TYM. A remarkable improvement in mean positional errors is seen at a later stage of the forecast time. The mean positional error is re- duced by 56 km in 72-hour forecast. As for typhoon intensity forecast, the new TYM shows almost the same performance as the old TYM.

Typhoon operational forecasting training scheduled Tropical cyclone track forecasts improved

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) narrowed probability circles for the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast starting June 1, 2004. This improvement is based on the verification results of the recent TC track forecasts.

The verification of the forecasts from 2001 to 2003 indicated the feasibility of reduction in the radii of the probability circles by about 10% on an average compared to the previous ones, in particular 25% for TCs with the movement speed of more than 15 kt.

On-the-job trainees at RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center

The Typhoon Operational Forecasting Training has been conducted by the RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center of JMA, annually, based on the agreement with the Typhoon Committee since 2001. The objective of the training is to improve the tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting skills of forecasters from the members of the TC.

In 2003, the training was carried out for two forecasters from China and Thailand from 23 July to 1 August. It included the introduction of operations at RSMC Tokyo, and lectures and on-the-job training on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting.

Above figure shows a comparison of the new probability circle with the old Two forecasters from Hong Kong and Malaysia were invited to one in the case of a track forecast of TY ETAU (0310) issued at 12UTC 6 participate in the training to be held from 28 July to 6 August August 2003. The red solid circles indicate new probability circles, and the 2004. blue dashed ones describe old probability circles.

Page 8 August 2004 Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 The narrowed probability circle is expected to allow disaster observed by radars which are calibrated by raingauge data from a prevention activities to be more effectively coordinated. weather observation network called AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Aquisition System). A circular range into which the tropical cyclone is expected to move with the probability of 70 % at each validation time. It is expected to contribute to more accurate and timely startup of disaster prevention activities.

JMA begins precipitation nowcast operation

The JMA started the precipitation nowcast on 1 June 2004. Its main purpose is to provide disaster prevention authorities with 10 min. 20 min. 30 min. more detailed information on heavy rains.

The precipitation nowcast provides forecasts of 10-minute precipitation up to one hour ahead with a horizontal resolution of about 1 km all over Japan (covering 20°N-48°N, 118°E-150°E) based on rainfall data from radar observations at intervals of 10 minutes. It is issued every 10 minutes. 40 min. 50 min. 60 min. In the nowcast, future rainfall distribution is derived from the extrapolation of the distribution and movement of rainfall A precipitation nowcast up to one hour ahead

observations; and to identify ways to further develop Argo for op- First Argo science workshop erational programmes.

The first Argo Science Workshop, sponsored by the Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), was held in Tokyo on 12-14 November 2003 with more than 250 participants from 22 countries.

The Argo project deploys profiling floats called Argo floats to observe water temperature and salinity from the sea surface to the water depth of 2000 meters. The observational data from these floats are automatically transmitted via satellites. JMA operates the Japan Argo Data Assembly Center to distribute the data for real-time international exchange. The floats are planned to cover the global ocean. The array has reached over 40% of its final total as of June 2004.

The Workshop, through oral and poster presentations and discussions, provided an opportunity for the exchange of informa- tion on the findings of the studies using Argo and other profiling floats; demonstrate the key role of Argo to play in oceanographic Argo float

Macao Talk on Meteorology” was provided to local high school students from March 8-19. The schools Macao celebrates WMD 2004 were given five different topics to choose from: 100 Years of Macao Cli- The Meteorological and Geophysical mate, Our Future Climate, Bureau of Macao SAR (SMG) celebrated Knowing Rainstorm, El the World Meteorological Day 2004 with a Niño and La Niña and its set of activities to promote the theme for Impact, and Air Pollution this year's celebration - “Weather, Climate and Health. The SMG and Water in the Information Age." staff lectured a total of 5616 students from 17 A series of lecture entitled “Interactive high schools. SMG Dir. Fong Soi Kun presides 2004 WMD affair.

Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 August 2004 Page 9 Atomic Clock with precision up to Observatory, a new service in Portuguese period, warnings now rely on the technol- nanoseconds (10-9) to provide time ser- was launched offering access to the latest ogy of Doppler weather radar as well as vice was also inaugurated on WMD at the weather forecasts of the world’s cities skilled forecasters, high-speed telecom- SMG Headquarters, with the Secretary for issued by the National Meteorological and munications, and effective radio and TV the Transports and Public Works, Eng. Ao Hydrological Services (NMHSs). The new contacts, to transmit the warnings to the Man Long, presiding the event. website which can also be accessed affected communities. Thus, in coopera- through http://www.worldweather.org, is tion with the local mobile telecommunication The precision of operated under the auspices of WMO. It is company, mobile phone users can now time is crucial and the Portuguese version of the World use the “Cell Broadcast” weather informa- is the base for the tion service to receive the weather infor- success in all the mation, including activities related three weather with the Age of In- forecast reports formation, espe- issued daily, and cially the rapid instant severe development of weather warning e - g o v e r n m e n t , if issued. The e-commerce and “Cell Broadcast” e-signature. mode is different from the SMS (Short Message Service) Synchronization of PC clocks is now mode since the former disseminates the being provided through time server in information instantaneously to all the SMG web, as well as special time service New website service in Portuguese users while the latter disseminates one to e-government and private sector. after another. Weather Information Service (WWIS) web- In order to reinforce better service and site developed by Hong Kong on behalf of Version 2.0 of easiness of the exchange of meteorologi- WMO. “100-Year of Macao cal information, all monthly and annual Climate” CD-ROM publication including Meteorological At present, 1003 cities from 153 WMO was also published Observation Report, Air Quality Monitoring members have their climatological data succeeding Version Report, and Annual Tropical Cyclone presented in this web site. 90 members 1.0 last year. Report are now available in electronic for- also supply weather forecasts for 858 Version 2.0 is en- mat (PDF format). More users can now cities. riched with more meteorological parame- download the e-publication through the ters, tabulated and graphical analyses SMG website at http://www.smg.gov.mo. In the case of small-scale severe information. Monthly and annual climate thunderstorms and rainstorms, specific data as well as 100-year or 48-year daily At the initiative of SMG, in cooperation warnings are possible only a few hours, or average climate data are available in the with the Institute of Meteorology of even minutes, before the damaging CD-ROM. Portugal and supported by the Hong Kong storms strike. Even for that critical short

of TC to prepare a synthesis report based on the responses to a Philippines questionnaire on achievements, successes and problems of TC Kuroiwa, Ti visit TCS members in mobilizing resources. The report will be provided to the Working Group on the Review of Operations and Structure of Koji Kuroiwa, Deputy the Typhoon Committee for Head of the Office of subsequent development International Affairs of of on or two project Japan Meteorological proposals on resource Agency, visited the mobilization. Typhoon Committee Sec retari at (TC S), Kuroiwa also met with Philippine Atmospheric, ADB official Nesiem G e o p h y s i c a l a n d Ahmad, Director of Re- Astronomical Services gional Sustainable Devel- Administration (PAGASA) opment Department and and the Asian Develop- Joseph Weinstock, Senior ment Bank (ADB) in Environment Specialist, to Manila, from 29 to 31 Left photo. Koji Kuroiwa (2nd from right) poses with (from right) TCS’ Martin F. Rellin, Jr. get their views on most M a r c h 2 0 0 4 , i n (meteorologist), Margaret Bautista (hydrologist) and Bella Mendoza, Rose Anillo and strategic approach for pos- connection with the Hannibal Marayag (staff). Right photo. Kuroiwa is flanked by R. L. Kintanar (left) and M. F. sible projects of TC to be implementation of the Rellin, Jr. bankrolled by institutions proposals on resource in Asia including the ADB. mobilization for the attainment of the objectives of the Typhoon Committee. Le-Huu Ti, Economic Affairs Officer of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) also visited the TCS Kuroiwa was appointed as rapporteur at the thirty sixth session on 30 June 2004 prior to his participation at the Workshop on

Page 10 August 2004 Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 The workshop, organized by the National Water Resources Board (NWRB) and sponsored by the ESCAP, forms part of Phase III of the ESCAP project “Capacity Building on SPM of Natural Resources Development and Environmental Protection” which was implemented in 2000.

The Philippines has been selected as one of the countries for the case studies to be undertaken in the five sub-regions of Asia and the Pacific on application of SPM for integrated water resources management (IWRM). The programme of ESCAP is to compile relevant experiences and achievements on application of SPM for integrated water resources management.

The findings of the compilation will be the subject of a regional Le-Huu Ti (right) of ESCAP meets with Martin F. Rellin, Jr. (left) and Roman workshop on SPM in Bangkok in November 2004 as contribution L. Kintanar, meteorologist and coordinator of TCS, respectively. of UNESCAP to the implementation of the outcomes and meeting the targets established at the World Summit on Sustainable Strategic Planning and Management (SPM) of Water Resources, Development (Johannesburg, September 2002), to develop held in Manila, from 1-2 July 2004. integrated water resources management plans by 2005.

Republic of Korea

Wind profiler network established

The first phase of the project on the establishment of the wind profiler observing network in Korea, which was started in 2001 to enhance the upper-air observing capability of the Korea Meteoro- logical Administration (KMA) by installing a total of 10 wind profilers over the Korean peninsular until 2007, was successfully completed in 2003.

Under phase I, three wind profilers were installed at field sites in Haenam, Munsan and Ganneung area while a control center to Present (left) and future (right) network for upper-air observation with 8 ra- collect and process observed wind profiler data was set up at the diosondes and 10 wind profilers. KMA headquarters in Seoul.

Each wind profiler, which is being operated with an antenna of 1.3GHz, sends observed data up to the height of 5 km to the control center at an interval of 10 minutes and displayed at the website of the Wind Profiler Network that has windows of time series of observed data, vertical gradient, ranged-corrected SNR, spectral width and skewness.

After quality control and processing of data in BUFR code on a real-time, data is transmitted to the KMA's 3 dVar system of 10 km resolution for assimilation. Such as- similated data is used for running of KMA NWP models for short-range forecast. The schematic diagram (below) shows the flow and processing of observed data. Processed data in BUFR code is also being provided to research institutes and universities in Korea for collaboration.

Wind profiler data at Haenam and Munsan sites when ty- The data flow of KMA Wind Profiler Network phoon Mindulle passed through southwest (upper) and west coast of South Korea (lower) on 3-4July 2004.

Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 August 2004 Page 11

New S-band and C-band weather radars installed

The KMA installed an S-band weather radar at Mt. Gwangdeok (Gwangdeoksan) and a C-band radar at Mt. Myeonbong (Myeonbongsan) in 2003 to compensate the radar beam blockage area in Gangwon and Gyungbook inland province, respectively. During Typhoon Rusa’s pas- sage in 2002, the existing KMA radar net- work had not detected much of the rainfall in Gangwon province. With the a b installation of the Gwangdeoksan radar Distribution of radar echoes (a) without and (b) with Gwangdeok radar at 21:20KST on January 20th 2004. and operated in winter of 2003, it has

aided effectively in monitoring and de- tecting weather phenomena in the area. The Myeonbongsan radar is under test-run and will be operational in mid-2004.

Acquisition and preprocess At present, KMA has been carrying out a Level-2 geophysical system for Aqua parameter retrieval using Level 1B data. In addition, KMA will establish a web-based imagery display system and validation system at the end of 2004. The KMA upgraded its X-band receiving system for the acquisition of direct broadcast Aqua satellite data, by a) b) adding Aqua X-band facilities and processing S/W to the existing Terra/MODIS X-band facilities in 2002. This allowed the usage of the MODIS Level-1B data from both Terra and Aqua.

The KMA also established a system generating the Level-1B data from AIRS, AMSU, AMSR-E within sensors of Aqua in 2003. This processing system is termed ACAP (Aqua Catalog And Products generation). ACAP is the Level- 1B product generation system for the Aqua/AMSR-E, which is based on the processor ADS (AMSR Data processing Software) developed by KMA and STREC with cooperation from Japan’s NASDA (National Space Development An example of microwave imagery from AMSR-E on Aqua for the 14th typhoon Agency). ADS was released to the public in June 2003 after MAEMI passing through the Korean peninsula. a) 36.5 GHz image and b) 89.0 GHz image at 0453UTC on September 12, 2003. a 1-year sensor verification period.

• 48 hour typhoon Position forecasting of existing typhoons for the following 72 hours (2003) intensity forecasting

• Intensity forecasting of existing typhoons for the following 48 The KMA presently hours (2004) uses Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System (TAPS), Particularly, a func- an operational software to tion of STIPS (Statistical support typhoon fore- Tropical Cyclone Intensity casting. KMA forecasters Prediction Scheme) was use TAPS for monitoring, included in the 2004 analyzing, and forecasting version of TAPS to meas- tropical cyclone activities ure the intensity of exist- which occur in the North- ing tropical cyclones for west Pacific region. the following 48 hours.

TAPS has undergone Position forecasting from Models Intensity forecasting from STIPS the following steps since 2000:

• Construction of TAPS by METRI/KMA and Kongju National University (2000-2003)

Page 12 August 2004 Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 the typhoon would be diagnosed and used New typhoon bogussing scheme as an input for the 3DVAR system.

In this scheme, the typhoon in the One of the most important issues in background field of the 3DVAR cycle is numerical typhoon modeling is realistic moved to the observed position, where bogussing of the observed typhoon. the surface pressure and wind fields are Approximating the intensity and location compared with the observed fields to of the bogussed typhoon close to the decide the observation increment. The observation data is essential to improve observation error is empirically deter- typhoon track and intensity prediction. In mined as a linear increase with the addition, bogussed typhoon fields are distance from the typhoon center. required to be harmonized in a dynamic balance. The application of the 3DVAR typhoon bogussing technique for the past typhoon As the 3DOI (3-Dimensional Optimal events showed promising results. Verifi- Interpolation) was replaced with 3DVAR cation of typhoon tracks and intensities (3-Dimensional VARiational method) in indicated that the new scheme has a December 2003 at KMA as an analysis better prediction capability. The most scheme for the global model data assimi- noticeable improvement was the realistic lation system, more meteorological obser- representation of pressure at the typhoon vation could be assimilated in the KMA’s center. The new typhoon bogussing The predicted typhoon track (blue) by 3DVAR typhoon bogussing at 00UTC 19 June 2004, and the analysis system. One example was the scheme is now in operation in KMA since observed track (black), for the sixth typhoon of 3DVAR typhoon bogussing, where the June 2004. 2004, Dianmu. observation increment and error ratio for

Thailand

TMD director-general in Open Green World

Aftermath of the killer floods in Mae Ramat.

August-September and for people in the south during October- November.

Anant noted that the killer floods and mudslides that struck Mae Ramat killed 6 people, destroyed nearly 200 houses and damaged more than 300 houses which left 6000 people home- less. Infrastructures and agricultural areas were also severely affected as the results of the 2-day accumulated rain just immediately before the severe event, particularly, the 124.7 mm. of the 20 May heavy rain.

Anant Thensathit Anant further warned especially those who live in the flood- prone areas in the mountains to be aware of this kind of natural disaster, particularly, when the 24 hr. rainfalls are above 90 mm. Anant Thensathit, director general of the Meteorological He issued concern in June-September when they should be more Department of Thailand gave an interview in Open Green World alert to heavy rain during this period of active monsoon trough on 28 May 2004. when upper Thailand will be mostly affected.

Anant said on the TV program that the landslides at Mae Moreover, Anant stressed that in the October-November- Ramat, Tak province, in upper Thailand, on 20 May 2004, was December period, Thailand will be under the influence of north- the result of the impact of the 02B Tropical Cyclone in the east monsoon carrying cold air from China which marks the Andaman Sea. He warned the people in the upper part province beginning of the winter season. to be prepared and be alert to flooding and heavy rain during

Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16 August 2004 Page 13 2004. This installation is a milestone for - WSO Pohnpei (Ceasar Hadley), and U S A the NWS-M and represents the completion of the first phase of the program. Republic of the Marshall Islands - WSO Majuro (Reginald White) Micronesian meteorologist Now, for the first time, all five of the training program Micronesian Weather Service Offices have The second phase of the NWS-M milestone MICs with a bachelor degree in meteoro- program is now in progress with students logy and extensive training in weather from Micronesia studying for a degree in operations. The Offices (MICs) are: meteorology at the University of Hawaii. The fifth graduate of the NOAA National Weather Service – Micronesian Republic of Palau On completion of their degree and Meteorologist Training Program (NWS-M) - WSO Koror (Maria Ngemaes), operational training, they will return to was officially installed as the their home stations/WSOs with a rich Meteorologist-in-Charge (MIC) of the Federated States of Micronesia, background in science and operations for Majuro Weather Service Office in the - WSO Yap (David Aranug) improving the weather services within Republic of the Marshall Islands in July - WSO Chuuk (Johnson Elimo) Micronesia.

Disasters as part of WGH meeting in Seoul Integrated Resource Management” to be held in Seoul in Sep- The meeting of the Working Group in Hydrology (WGH) tember. was held at the Korea Water Company building in Seoul, Korea, on 27-28 February 2004. The group members The WGH also from China, Japan, Korea and Malaysia, was joined by went on a field trip hydrologists from the Korea Meteorological Agency, with at Pyeong Taek catch- Typhoon Committee Secretariat hydrologist Margaret ment, selected for the Bautista as well as experts from local water-related on-site training on agencies. flood hazard mapping which is one of the The group discussed their activities for 2004, activities for the including the program of activities of the workshop KIWE’s Koh Denk-Koo (third from right) briefs the hydrologists on September workshop. entitled “Living with Risk: Dealing with Typhoon-related the technical details of the Pyeong Taek catchment.

The Typhoon Committee News- Meeting of the Working Group on the Review of Operations and letter is published in English Structure of the Typhoon Committee (WG ROSTY) in Bangkok by the Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS).

The Working Group on Coordinator: the Review of Operations and Structure of the Typhoon Dr. Roman L. Kintanar Committee (WG ROSTY) held its meeting in Bangkok, 4/F PAGASA Main Office Thailand, from 20-22 April Building, Science Garden 2004, attended by core Complex, Agham Road, Diliman, members from China, Hong Q u e z o n C i t y 1 0 0 1 , Kong, Japan, Malaysia, the PHILIPPINES Philippines, South Korea and Telefax: (632) 4349026 Thailand. E-mail: [email protected]

WG ROSTY meeting The 3-day meeting, presided by WG chairman The Newsletter is available on James Weyman of USA, reviewed and discussed the information collected from the members request to the Editor or of TC. More refined proposals to be submitted at the 37th TC session were developed on the Coordinator at the above address. following topics: Editor: ∗ New proposed Terms of Reference (TOR) for the TC, TC chairperson, TC vice-chairperson, Martin F. Rellin, Jr. TC secretary, TC secretariat, TC advisory working group, and working groups on Assistant Editor: meteorology, hydrology, and disaster prevention and preparedness, and Typhoon Re- Hannibal B. Marayag search Coordinating Group; Staff: ∗ Frequency of TC meetings, strategic plan and annual operating/work plan, and seeking Bella U. Mendoza and obtaining feedback/input from and among TC members; and Rosemarie Z. Anillo ∗ Effective and efficient budgetary process of the TC, resource mobilization, and strategies Roman O. Mendoza and one/two detailed projects proposals to be used for resource mobilization.

Page 14 August 2004 Typhoon Committee Newsletter No. 16