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Jp 3.18 a Climatological Features of Typhoon Making Landfall Over the Korean Peninsula

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Jp 3.18 a Climatological Features of Typhoon Making Landfall Over the Korean Peninsula JP 3.18 A CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURES OF TYPHOON MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA Baek-Jo Kim1 and Ki-Seon Choi2∗ 1Policy Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul 156-720, Republic of Korea 2Earthquake Observation Division, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul 151-747, Republic of Korea 1. INTRODUCTION affected the KP, Lee et al. (1992) classified the KP-affecting TCs into six-track type The tropical cyclones (TCs), which form during the period 1960-1990 and then over the western North Pacific (WNP), analyzed the large-scale circulation account for 30 percent of the global total. associated with each track type. Also, Park et Among these TCs, on average, three per al. (2006) investigated the KP-affecting TCs year affect the Korean Peninsula (KP), and in terms of the relationship between rainfall one lands over the KP with tremendous connected to TCs and TCs' tracks or kinetic damage (Typhoon White Book 1996). energy. Ho et al. (2004) reported that, According to National Emergency through analysis of summertime TC activity in Management Agency (NEMA 2005), TCs the WNP during the period 1951-2001, the explain approximately 65 percents of the passage frequency of TCs from the amounts of damage caused by a natural Philippine Sea to northeast China including disaster during the last 10 years. Also, it is South Korea and the western region of Japan noted that damage by TCs may be much was reduced after the 1980s. It is also known more increased in case of considering a loss that TC motions are significantly controlled by of life by TCs. Therefore, in order to reduce regional atmospheric circulation rather than the damage brought by a TCs, the long-term the variability of the SST in the subtropics or variability of TC activity in each ocean basin tropics (Kim et al. 2005). has already been studied by many However, it is not easy to find the previous researchers. Chan and Shi (1996) showed study on KP-landfall TCs, but the study of that TCs activities in the western and central Kim et al. (2006) is just found. They defined North Pacific basins have increased since the TC landfall as an event where the TC center 1980s. In a study on the activity of TCs enters a circle with a radius of 5° from central affecting the KP, Park et al. (2006) showed Korea (128°E and 36°N). After that, they that the number of TC has rapidly increased analyzed the large-scale atmospheric since the 1990s. Actually, top 10 TCs with circulation associated with heavy rainfall the highest economic damage in South influenced only by the landfalling TCs. Korea have struck in recent years and made There have been many previous studies on landfall over the KP (KMA 2002). In addition, the climatological characteristics of TC in the a heavy rainfall influenced only by the landfall WNP(Chan 1985, Dong 1988, Wu and Lau TCs has increased since late 1970s (Kim et 1992, Lander 1994, Wang and Chan 2002, al. 2006). From this point of view, a study of and Yumoto and Matsuura 2001). They focus the long-term variability of the activity of KP- on the variability of TC genesis in the WNP, landfall TCs will be meaningful and valuable. which is mainly related to the El Niño- In studies of the climatological and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). statistical characteristics of TCs that have In the case of TC studies associated with the KP, the KP-affecting TCs are mainly ∗Corresponding author address: Ki-Seon made one of the objectives in this study. But, Choi, Earthquake Observation Division, as stated above, economic loses caused by Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul TCs in South Korea are much more great by 156-720, Republic of Korea. E-mail those making landfall over the KP. address : [email protected] Additionally, TC activity related to the KP need to be studied separately from the 10 8 Total climate patterns of subtropical or tropical ) TD 8 regions in order to reduce the damage by TY TS, TY 6 . TCs making landfall over the KP. The present TS study aims to show the interannual and 6 , TD 4 ( interdecadal variabilities of the KP-landfall TC. 4 y 2 uenc q 2. DATA (Total) Frequency 2 Fre In order to select the KP-landfall TC, the 0 0 present study employs the dataset of TC E1950 L1950 E1960 L1960 E1970 L1970 E1980 L1980 E1990 L1990 E2000 best- track for the WNP that has been Fig. 1. 5-year variation of the landfall archived by the Regional Specialized frequency of KP-landfall TCs. The bar and Meteorological Centers (RSMC)-Tokyo solid and dashed lines denote a 5-year total Typhoon Center during the period 1951-2004. frequency, a TD and extratropically This dataset includes 6-hourly latitude- transiotioned cyclone frequency, and a TS longitude positions and intensity such as and TY frequency, respectively. A capital E central pressure (hPa) and maximum and L denotes "early" and "late," respectively. sustained wind (MSW; kt) of TCs. Here, the MSW along the TC intensity is divided into 5 Until the 1970s, most TCs made landfall in grades such as tropical depression (TD; August, but, since the 1980s, the months of MSW < 34kt), tropical storm (TS; 34kt ≤ more frequent landfall has changed to June MSW ≤ 47kt), severe tropical storm (STS; and July. Generally, we can see that the 48kt ≤ MSW ≤ 63kt), typhoon (TY; MSW ≥ landfall frequency of KP-landfall TCs is the 64kt), and extratropical cyclone (ET). -1 highest in July and August, but the ratio of We also use the 6-hourly wind (m s ) and that in June to the total landfall frequency is geopotential heights (gpm) reanalyzed by the also not low. National Center for Environmental Prediction- Month the National Center for Atmospheric 56789105678910 Research (NCEP-NCAR) to characterize the 8 8 6 1950s 1990s 6 related atmospheric circulation patterns 4 4 (Kalnay et al. 1996). 2 2 0 0 8 8 6 1960s 2000s 6 3. INTERANNUAL VARIATION IN THE KP- 4 4 LANDFALL TCs 2 2 0 0 Frequency 8 30 TOTAL 6 1970s 20 Fig. 1 shows the 5-year variation of the Frequency 4 landfall frequency of the KP-landfall TCs. The 2 10 0 0 landfall frequency of the early 1960s and 8 10 ) Percentage % 6 1980s 8 ( early 2000s is quite high and that of the 6 4 4 period of the 1970s to the 1980s is relatively 2 2 0 0 low. However, the landfall frequency again Percent increases from the late 1980s onward, which 5678910 5678910 Month is consistent with Park et al. (2006), who Fig. 2. Decadal variation of the monthly analyzed the trend of TCs that affected the frequency of KP-landfall TCs. The units of the KP. The correlation coefficient between both light and dark gray bars are frequency and is 0.55, which is significant at the 95% percent, respectively. confidence level. The increase in the landfall frequency of KP-landfall TCs after the late The decadal variation of the landfalling 1980s is more remarkable in that of a TC with track patterns of KP-landfall TCs shows more intensity greater than the TS. Simultaneously, distinctive characteristics (Fig. 3). TCs in the the landfall frequency of the TD decreases. past mainly passed through the middle or This result reflects that the landfall frequency northern region of the KP, but, in recent of TCs with strong intensity has increased years, they have made landfall on the south more and more in recent years. coast and then passed over the east coast of Fig. 2 shows the decadal variation of the the KP. That is, this reflects that the main monthly landfall frequency of KP-landfall TCs. landfalling track of KP-landfall TCs tends to year mean of KP-landfall TCs. The region of shift south-eastward. This south-eastward the maximum recurving is in the vicinity of shift is more clear in the change of the mean Nanjing in Mainland China and the axis of regression track at each decade (thick lines relatively high frequency also is toward the in Fig. 3). southwestern sea of the KP. In the variation of the 10-year mean recurving location, we 1950s(8) 1960s(12) 1970s(6) can see the clockwise and simultaneously southward shift of the recurving location, which is the same direction as the landfalling track shift of KP-landfall TCs. 1980s(8) 1990s(9) 2000(7) Fig. 3. Decadal variation of the landfalling track of KP-landfall TCs. In (b), thick lines denote regression mean tracks and the numbers in parentheses represent the landfall frequency of KP-landfall TCs during each decade. This is because, in the past, many KP- Fig. 5. Decadal variations of the recurving landfall TCs tended to land at the KP after locations (dark circles) and the recurving recurving on Mainland China. However, in frequency (contour) of KP-landfall TCs recent years, the tracks of the TCs have changed to come not via Mainland China but 4. INTERDECADAL VARIATION IN THE KP- from the East China Sea (Fig.4). Therefore, LANDFALL TCs the increase in recent landfall frequency of KP-landfall TCs with strong intensity is due to In order to examine the characteristics of the recent increase of TCs passing over the interdecadal variation on the frequency of TC sea that can sufficiently supply the energy to landfalling the KP, the change-point analysis the TC. is applied. The indices associated with the KP-landfall TC used in the analysis are 1950s(29%) 1960s(29%) 1970s(5%) following : ㆍ Frequency of TC (TDET) with intensity of tropical depression to extratropical transition of TC ㆍ Frequency of TC (TSTY) with intensity of 1980s(18%) 1990s(14%) 2000s(14%) tropical storm to typhoon ㆍ Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) on TC with intensity of tropical storm to typhoon ㆍ Total moving distance (TMD) of TC for its life time.
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