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Enhancing Impact Assessment with Extrapolative Fiction Portland State University PDXScholar Dissertations and Theses Dissertations and Theses 1-1-1984 Enhancing impact assessment with extrapolative fiction Ruth-Ellen Miller Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Miller, Ruth-Ellen, "Enhancing impact assessment with extrapolative fiction" (1984). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 816. https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.816 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. ENHANCING IMPACT ASSESSMENT WITH EXTRAPOLATIVE FICTION by RUTH-ELLEN MILLER A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in SYSTEMS SCIENCE Portland State University 'C 1984 Ruth-Ellen Miller TO THE OFFICE OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH: The members of the Committee approve the dissertation of Ruth-Ellen Miller January 13, 1984. / Dr Martin Zwick APPROVED: Dr S E Rauch, Dean, Graduate Studies & Research © 1984 RUTH-ELLEN MILLER All Rights Reserved ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Over the years that I have been working on this dissertation, I have received far more than the usual share of time, effort, and understanding from all of my committee members--for which I am truly grateful. Together and individually, they have guided and advised me through the various stages of the process with remarkable patience and fortitude, and deserve considerable credit for the results. Beyond that, special thanks must go to my chairman, Dr. George Lendaris for taking this project on at a difficult time and shepherding it through the necessary steps to completion. Additional thanks go to Joseph Coates, who consented to take on the role of "outside reader" and provided very thoughtful and helpful comments on the draft. I hope I have done them justice in this final version. For supplying me with their own working notes and for taking the time to "talk methodology" with me, Ellen Heckler and Patricia Warrick deserve special thanks, as do Steve Rogers, Bill Rabiega, Nora Lehnhoff, and (again) Ellen Heckler for granting me free access to their libraries, and Arlene Landry for going beyond the call of friendship in coding IA reports. iv Thanks also go to Susan Page for her careful reading of early drafts, and to Sally Lopez for her assistance with this final one. And, finally, most gratefully, I acknowledge the love, patience, and unwavering support granted me by my colleagues and co-workers, my good friend Michela, and by those very special people in my life: Jack, Dawn, and Aurora. Thank you all, very much. TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii LIST OF TABLES . viii LIST OF FIGURES x CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1 Context For The Research 4 Approach and Overview 9 II THE EMERGING FIELD OF IMPACT ASSESSMENT. 21 Forms and Functions of Impact Assessment 22 Environmental Impact Assessment Technology Assessment A Generalized Definition of Impact Assessment . 36 Objectives for Impact Assessment The Results of Impact Assessment Concerns and Criticisms The Call for Alternative Approaches III EXTRAPOLATIVE FICTION 51 Futuristic Fiction as a Tool for the Policy Sciences . 52 Futuristic Fiction and Scenarios Forms of Futuristic Fiction Extrapolative Fiction and Impact Assessment . 60 Producing Extrapolative Fiction 62 The Editors Fans as Critics The Authors Al terna t i ve Verbal Models . 70 Transportation Stories Research and Development Stories Nuclear Power Stories Societal Forecasts IV COMPARATIVE ANALYSES OF IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND EXTRAPOLATIVE FICTION 100 Statistical Content Analysis . 101 Methodology Results Thematic Analysis 116 Approach Results Comparisons of Specific Impacts Described . 149 Transportation Systems Nuclear Power Plants V INCLUDING EXTRAPOLATIVE FICTION IN IMPACT ASSESSMENT . 177 A Synthesized Approach . 177 Collecting Information Developing Models Communicating the Results Including Extrapolative Fiction Appending EF Stories to IA Reports: Alternative Formats. 187 Stories as Scenarios in the Report Anthologies Quotes and References Extrapolative Fiction in the Research Process . 194 Including a Fiction-oriented Team Member VI ILLUSTRATIVE CASE STUDIES . 201 An Anthology Describing Life-Extending Technologies . 201 vi The Futures Group Study An Extrapolative Fiction Anthology The Guayule Rubber Studies . 224 The University of Arizona Assessment Developing An Alternative Model VII CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 249 Summary of Results 249 Discussion 253 Implications and Limitations of the Research 264 REFEH.ENCES 267 APPENDICES A Topical Bibliography of Extrapolative Fict ion . 279 B An Alternative Report Format for Assessing 284 the Impacts of Commercializing Guayule vii LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I SOME EXAMPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENTS ............ 28 II SOME EXAMPLES OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS 34 III RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES FOR TA AND EIS 37 IV OBjECTIVES FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT 40 V SOME COMMENTS uN IA REPORTS . 42 VI EXAMPLES OF EXTRAPOLATIVE FICTION 75 VII WORKS SELECTED FOR THE STATISTICAL CONTENT ANALYSIS--IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORTS 103 VIII WORKS SELECTED FOR THE STATISTICAL CONTENT ANALYSIS--EXTRAPOLATIVE FICTION STORIES 104 IX IMPACT CATEGORIES USED FOR THE CONTENT ANALYSIS . 106 X DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CODERS ON A SAMPLE TEXT 108 XI INFORMATION USED IN t-TESTS, ILLUSTRATIVE ....-. 109 XII SIGNIFICANCE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEANS 112 XIII DIFFERENCES BETWEEN AGGREGATED CATEGORIES 113 XIV IMPACT CATEGORIES DESCRIBED BY ALL OR NO EF STORIES AND IA REPORTS . .. 115 XV EF STORIES SELECTED FOR THEMATIC ANALYSIS 117 XVI TrlEMES SYNTHESIZED FROM EF STORIES--1940-80 122 XVII TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES ASSESSED IN THE SRI REPORT . .. 153 XVIII COMPARISON OF IMPACTS DESCRIBED--AUTOMATED ROADWAYS . 156 XIX CONTENTS OF THE SEABORG REPORT . 162 XX IMPACTS DESCRIBED IN THE SEABORG REPORT 164 viii XXI CLASSIFICATION OF POSTULATED ACCIDENTS 166 XXII IMPACTS DESCRIBED IN THE IA REPORTS ON NUCLEAR POWER . 170 XXIII CONCERNS ABOUT NUCLEAR POWER DESCRIBED IN EF STORIES . 173 XXIV COMPARISON OF IMPACTS DESCRIBED FOR NUCLEAR POWER . 175 XXV POSSIBLE OUTLINE FOR AN IA REPORT THAT INCLUDES EF STORIES . 189 XXVI TIME-BASED TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR AN ANTHOLOGY ON LIFE-EXTENDING TECHNOLOGIES . 192 XXVII SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACTS 206 XXVI II EF STORIES DESCRIBING LIFE-EXTENSION TECHNOLOGIES . .. ..... 213 XXIX KEY ACTORS INTERVIEWED FOR THE GUAYULE STUDY 234 XXX QUESTIONS USED FOR THE GUAYULE INTERVIEWS 236 XXXI ONE OUTLINE CONSIDERED FOR THE GUAYULE STUDY STORY . 238 ix LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 1. The genres and subgenres within the larger body of futuristic fiction, including extrapolative fiction . 7 2. The research approach used for this dissertation 10 3. Alternative configurations for integrating extrapolative fiction into the impact assessment process . 16 4. Content analysis procedure, in which the contents of message A are compared to those of message B to see differences in the sources 101 5. Molitor's issues-tracking model, used to determine the effectiveness of EF stories in identifying emergent issues . 121 6. Articles dealing with nuclear power plant safety 1940-1980 . 132 7. Articles dealing with Blackouts, 1940-1980 134 8. Articles dealing with Public worker strikes 136 9. The pattern of modelforms in a synthesized approach, with its emphasis on mental and verbal models . 182 10. Divergence map framework for placing EF stories in time . 191 11. Format for the SRI report, incorporating anecdotal images as sidebars . 199 x AN ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION OF Ruth-Ellen Miller for the Doctor of Philosophy in Systems Science presented January 13, 1984. Title: Enhancing Impact Assessment With Extrapolative Fiction. APPROVED BY MEMBERS OF THE Dr William A Rabieg:"_~j'---- Dr Martin Zwick This dissertation proposes tpe use of fiction as models to enhance the process of impact assessment (IA) and to improve the quality of IA reports. It demonstrates that works of extrapolative fiction (EF), a subset of 2 science fiction, raise issues and clarify concerns not cur­ rently included in the IA process, suggesting the potential for improving the relevance of IA results for decisionmakers. The dissertation also demonstrates that EF stories can en­ hance the presentation of IA results, making those results more readable. Through literature review and content analysis, the current IA process is shown to lead to results lacking in specific content areas (e.g., effects on emotional well-being and community cohesiveness) necessary for their utility to decisionmakers. The body of literature here called extrapo­ lative fiction is then shown to include many content areas missing in existing assessments. Two alternatives for an IA process that could incor­ por.ate extrapolative fiction are presented and discussed by means of examples. The first includes existing EF stories as a part of or an appendage to an IA report. The example is a preliminary combining of published EF stories with an IA report concerning life-extending technologies. The second includes the use of existing EF stories in the assess­ ment process through inclusion of an EF-oriented reader on the IA team. The example is a case description of an IA pro­ cess regarding the commercialization of guayule as a source of natural rubber, a process in which the
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