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Ed 071 192 Author Title Institution Report No ED 071 192 Eh004 792 AUTHOR Marien, Michael,_Ed. TITLE The Hot List Delphi. _An .7Exploratory Survey of Essential Reading for the Future.- INSTITUTION Syracuse Univ..ResearchCorp.,N.Y. Educational Pelicy Research Center.. REPORT NO EPRC-ER-6 PUBDATE 72 NOTE 99p.. AVAILABLE FROMEPRC Publications, 1206 Harrison Street, Syracuse, NeW York 13210 ($1.50) EDRS PRICE MF-$0.65 HC-f3.29 DESCRIPTORS *Annotated Bibliographies; Changing Attitudes; *Educational Change; *Futures; *LiteratureReviews; *Social.Change IDENTIFIERS *Eicplotatoty Reports;- Futures Research ABSTRACT This:report:lists 236booksand_ articles of which 192' haVe been rated by -a panel of 1 --gullified:,futurists. The findings-of this survey are beinT:made -- available to aid' in-the professionalization,of the field,tof future_ sresearch;to encourage and better -Surveys such as this one; and to providea somewhat authoritative list of selected readings for ,policymakers, professionals, students, and Concerned citizens who wish to further their -understanding -of futures, futurists, and fixturistics. The docUments- are rated according -to -merit andreadingaudience...Futures docUments are annotated and ,classified according to (1). general overviews;(2) general symposia and antholOgies; (3) technology and its impacts;(4). population, resources and environment:, (5) government and international relations:, (6) business and economics_;: (7)- the individual, the family,, and youth; (8) :comiunications and- education; (9) .futUres-mclassicanz; -(10)- utopiaS and Science-fiction; (11)-, ziethodology; and (12) :bibliographies and directories. From thete documents, 36 were selected as- a ,recommended -basic. library -fOr futurists.The-review also includes information about =how to acquire the documents surveyed...A related docuinent is ED- 061 '636., (Author/DN)- U.S. DEPARTMENT OF WEALTH. EDUCATION WELFARE OFFICE Of EDUCATION THIS,DOCUMENT HAS. SEEN REPRO. 11"4 DOM EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIG. INATING IT. POINTS Of VIEW OR OM. IONS STATED 00 NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE Of CATION POSITION OR POLICY, /HU EPRC Exploratory Report ER-6 THE HOT-_ LIST- DELPHI- :An Exploratory- Survey of- Essential Readinvfor-thet=Future -Michael:Marien , -Editor Educational Policy-Research Center Syracuse University - Research Corporation 1206_ Harrition Street Syracuse, New =York _13210 ---Datzwents are available fromthe Educational -Policy Research Ceritne'at Syracuse in three formats, besides-theregular-publica- tion,-NoteA-on-Age Future of Education: RESEARCH=REFORTS Reports which have completed review_by_thesEPRCandWhich- deal_with specific,_policy_eriented-research. The-reporti in thii i^+-Ies are-usually marked_byintenSive-xeseireh, either quan2iided -or historical,and addreis-themielves-to_specifir =research questions. EKPLORATORT=REPORTS Reports- which, - =while dealingEWith-policyAsaues,-often-approich- the _renlm_of-conjiatilie;_ they_-addreis_themselves-to-social iisues--and-thi-future, mak,,be-prescriptiverather-than-deirrip=, -tiVe in-tone,-ind_ate,,by nature, tore controversialin their conclusions. _The_:teiriew Of-these-repoitsZhy-the-EPRC-is as- = rigorous as-that-foe Research Reports,though-the,_ cOnclusions remain-those=of the researther-rather,than,necessarily-represent itig_eonsensUs, agreement along:the entire-Centerstaff.- WORKING-DRAFTS Working Drafts are pipers in-progress,:and-are_occasionally made available; in limitedfitipOly, to portions-ofthe public to-allow critical feedback And review.They -have gone thfough little or no organized review -at the-Center,_and-their-substance_ceuld reflect eithti of the-abovetwo-categories-of reports. -Copyright © 1972-by Syracuse UniversityResearch -Corporation,-Herrill Lane, University-Heightsi, Sytacuse,_New York t3210. No -part Of this publication may be reproducei-in-any fore without the priorwritten permissiOn Of the publisher. 'PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THIS COPY. RIGHTED MATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED BY 4241,-Idat -ERIC A ORG I/MONS-OPERATING UNOER AG EMENTS WITH THE US OFFICE or_EOUCATiON RIMER REPRODUCTION OUTSIDE THE ERIC SYSTEM REQUIRES PER MISSION OF THE COPYRIGHT OWNER- ,..... THE HOT LIST DELPHI An Exfloratory Survey of Essential Reading tot the Future Table of-- Contents Zreface- ,A: Some-Reservations_ -B. Eiplinition of:Riting-CocieS -C. -kBaSic Libraiy-for-Futurists: "The-Top 36" -D- -AcOiring-,DoCuMents E. -Listing_of Panelists -Part I:-Annotated-Listing of-Documents- _A. -General OVerViews -General _SyMpoisiaandjaitholOgieS. C: -Teehnology_and=its-Jmpects_ D. Population, Resources,.-Environment E. -GoVernme4 andlInteinationil-RelatiOns- F. Business and-EconolicZ Gi The Individual, Family, and Youth H. ComMuniCitiOnS and Education I. -Flittires "Classics" -Utopias-and-Science Fiction_ _K. Methodology- L. BibliogiaOhies and Directories (Supplement)- Biassed Reading-ToWards Hankind's_Future Part III: Original Instructions to-Panelists With-Footnoted Commentary- Part IV: Summary and Proposal for-a Global Selection System Indexes to Documenti Listed in Part I Index by Author Index by Organization Index by Selected Subject Chart 1: Documents Rated as "Essential" by More Thin One-Third of Panelists PREFACE -None-of-us=have-any,ready-made't answers. The_fun_ofiiiing_a-reporter -is -to -iiCognire-_ho4 little we:kno4.-_ SO-listen-Co a-lot-Of-different-voices. Stone This - exploratory report liSts 23=bOoiS and articles; of which 192-haVe-bein-rated =by-a_panel_of-14-vell'-ilualified-futuriats. -It is_the first _attempt -known -ef-to seturera-aollective judgment on the important literature in-any field-of study. The 46 presented_here-with=several-major reservations, which users -are urged -to -bear in mind. lievertheless,_in contrast to the-scientiitiCiimpulse to_report only aolid-findings, the-reiults of this-survey-are-being made-aVaileble on aliiited=basis-bedauSe -they will- hopefully-serve-to-further-profesSionaiize tile-field of futures research (or futuristics or-futurology); to- encourage -more andibetter-surveys such aSithie_one, and7-perhaps most importantly to provide a somewhat authoritative list of selected- readings for policy=makers, professionals, students, and- concerned- citizens who wish tolurther-their understanding-of futures, iuturiets, and futuristics, It is- appropriate -that this survey is being published through the auspiCeS of the Educational Policy Research Center, for it con- cerns a critical but generally neglected realm that might best be described as "elite adult education." Although the study of- alter- native futures is open-to anyone,_ and futuristics Can Stand separately as a subject or can infuse the entire curriculum from elementary to grachlate school, it-i6 of-most urgent-concern to present-and pro- spective leaders of-society=who are responsible for charting broad direationl=-inirenting the future, for better or Worse. Some of our political and intellectual leaders-mayfbe kept well=informed-through informal processes, but there -is-no---sysiemetic method by which the outpouring_of-printediliterature in-our nation= -not to Mention the worldis-combecito-identi6-those -books, articles, and-reports -that are-most-- critical -to de-I/eloping an- -understanding ii_tO-Where- our-nation and huianity-as awhole is headed-and-eight-be-heided. -Th16-repOrt=will-hopefullyeontribute to the realization Of-stieha proces6. A. Some Reservations The-listing-that follows is-merely-a faint suggestionof what a globallY=Selected lict of "essential reading" might look like. The-reservations-concern time lags, size and dompoSition of the panel, and Methodologidal_difficulties. 1. A Rather !!Cool"-Hat-Liit The intention -of this-exercise-was to provide a list of currently essential reading -- the "hot" items that could prove critical to in- fluencing_our-understanding of preient problems and possibilities. It employeS a Delphi=like methodalogY1 in-that a panel of_experts is employed for two iterations -and responses both in rating items and in providing annotations and comments have been kept anonymous. Although there will always-be durable "classics" of five, ten, or even twenty yeare-Vintage, there is a bias in thiS exercise toward the-older and_better-known Zocueents due to -the inevitable time lags -The oelphi methodology -- essentially a series of questionnaires--is perhaps the best-knoWn of the - recently developed techniques-for probing the future. It is described by Helmer in Social Technology (no. 197) and exemplified by the ongoing work at the Institute for the Future (e.g., see nos. 10 and 13). ii in dissemination: Panelists volunteered their services, and surely did _netlleve-tithe to locate and-digeOt newer works- that -might be considered-as more up -to -date statements.Moreover,- there -was a -time lag in_the condtict of=thiS-exercise: documents- were nominated during-April-and May- -1972, and rated during-June and:July: _Addi-- tional deleyt hive-caused inis report to-be- Prepared-in September-- a_lag of several months during-which _new and_nordwoithy-documents may-hive appeared.2 116--rettilting list will therefore-not be- surprising to=-many- professional _futurigts. _Moierhan_two=thirdt of the_36 tbp-rafted = documents- (see -Chart 1)-were publithed=before 1970.Nevertheless;_ the titling of this report is retained as "The Hot List_Delphi" to -6UggestA4hat might be, more-than_what it. 2. Panel_Size,and-Composition The-driterion for_panel membership-was "some degree Of critical appreciation -of at least 500 futures-_or fututetrelited-documents;" As-of April
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