Learning from the Futures Palacky University Press Reviewed by: Dušan Bevilaqua Jan Szöllös Zpracováno v rámci projektu Neoprávněné užití tohoto díla je porušením autorských práv a může zakládat občanskoprávní, správněprávní popř. třestněprávní odpovědnost Eds. © Pavel Nováček, Th omas Schauer, 2011 © Palacký University, Olomouc, 2011 ISBN 978-80-244-2682-2 Authors Authors Pierre C. Armand, International Commission for Development of Haiti Peter Bishop, University of Houston José Luis Cordeiro, Millennium Project and Singularity University Jerome C. Glenn, Millennium Project Ladislav Hohoš, Comenius University in Slovakia Mikuláš Huba, Slovak Academy of Sciences and Palacký University, Olomouc Piotr Jutkiewicz, 4C Future, Warsaw Jaroslav Kalous, Charles University in Prague Ivan Klinec, Slovak Academy of Sciences and Club of Rome – Slovak Association Norbert Kolos, 4C Future, Warsaw Juraj Mesík, Society for Sustainable Living in Slovakia Czeslaw Mesjasz, Cracow University of Economics Romi S. Mukherjee, UNESCO Pavel Nováček, Palacky University in Olomouc and Club of Rome – Czech Association Erzsébet Nováky, Club of Rome - Hungarian Association Andrew Oerke, former Peace Corps Country Director Michael Platzer, Academic Council on the United Nations System Miroslav Polzer, Austrian Science and Research Liaison Offi ce (ASO), Ljubljana Th omas Schauer, Club of Rome – European Support Centre Anitra Th orhaug (Club of Rome – US Association) Helga Veigl, Club of Rome – Hungarian Association Václav Žák, independent expert, Czech Republic 3 Content Content Pavel Nováček: Learning from the Futures – 2015 and Beyond ................. 7 Learning from the Futures Peter Bishop: Scenario Development, Epistemology and Methods ..........11 Erzsébet Nováky, Helga Veigl: Messages from the Futures: Hungarian Experience ....................................................................................24 Miroslav Polzer: Building the Ethical Basis for Global Climate Change Action: An Issue for Science, Religion and/or Negotiation? ..................... 41 Michael Platzer: Communicating the Ethical Implications of Worst Case Climate Change Scenarios Th rough Religious Bodies ............................... 56 Sustainable Future or Business as Usual? Th omas Schauer: Sustainable Future – the Role of Information Technology ............................................................................ 59 Juraj Mesík: 2010–2030: From Sustainable Development to Sustainable Retreat ......................................................................................67 Andrew Oerke: Th e Four Invisible Horsemen of the Apocalypse and Poetic Th ought (Long-Term Issues Behind the “Global Problematique”) ..........................................................................80 One World – One Future? Jerome C. Glenn: Global Challenges we Face in 21st Century ................. 91 Mikuláš Huba: Rio Process: Pre-History – History – Present – Future ........ 101 Václav Žák: Post-communist Transformation – Lessons Learned from the Czech Example .............................................................................. 119 5 Content Views from the Americas Anitra Th orhaug: Th e Future of the Western Hemisphere ......................127 Pierre C. Armand: Haiti at a Crossroad and Elements of Sustainable Recovery ................................................................................132 Andrew Oerke: Th e Future of Microfi nance: From Sustainability to a Generative Paradigm, the GCEEF Microfi nance Agenda ................142 Th inking the Unthinkable: on the Verge of Reality and Fiction José L. Cordeiro: From Biological to Technological Evolution ...............151 Jaroslav Kalous: Why are we not Sustainable .............................................168 Romi S. Mukherjee: Towards an Ethics of the Exception: the Foresight of the Unthinkable .................................................................179 Open Space Ladislav Hohoš: Post-crisis Scenario of Globalization .............................189 Piotr Jutkiewicz, Norbert Kolos: Foresight in Small and Medium Enterprises: Polish Perspective............................................. 201 Ivan Klinec: Th e Future of Economics: Creative Design of the Unifi ed Economic Th eory .................................................................206 6 Pavel Nováček Learning from the Futures – 2015 and Beyond Pavel Nováček Th e conference “Learning from the Futures” was organized by Palacky University in Olomouc (Department of Development Studies) in cooperation with the Millennium Project, European Support Center of the Club of Rome and Czech, Slovak, U.S. and Hungarian Associations of the Club of Rome. Th e meeting could become inspiration for another meeting in 2012. Not because of the “end of our days” in December 2012 according to the Mayan calendar, but because in this year we shall celebrate several important milestones in our journey for a more sustainable future: – 40 years from the fi rst report to the Club of Rome “Limits to Growth”; – 40 years from the fi rst U.N. environmental conference in Stockholm and establishing of the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP); – 25 years since formulation of “sustainable development” published in Brundtland Report “Our Common Future”; – 25 years from Montreal Protocol concerning ozone layer depletion; – 20 years since UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro – 20 years from beginning of the Millennium Project and 15 years since publishing fi rst “State of the Future” Report; – 20 years from Albert Gore’s proposal for the Global Marshall Plan (in his book “Earth in Balance”); – 15 years from Kyoto protocol concerning greenhouse gas emmissions; – and 10 years from the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. But perhaps the most important – in 2012 just 3 years will remain until deadline to achieve the Millennium Development Goals in 2015. And I am afraid MDG’s will not be a success story in 2015 at all. Th erefore we, people interested and involved in environmentally and future oriented studies, should start to formulate scenarios and proposals about what to do and 7 Learning from the Futures – 2015 and Beyond where to go next. What can we do by 2015 and especially what we can and should do aft er 2015? We are not heads of powefull states or big and infl uential multinational corporations. But still it is our responsibility to do our best for a better future. Allow me to quote Czech theologist Karel Skalický: “Present day futurologists are endangered by the pitfalls of laxity, alibism and self- satisfaction, which manifest themselves by describing the future rather than thinking about it. Such an attitude is more futurography than futurology. Futurulogists, the people dealing with the future, behave in a short-sighted way until they understand futurology more as a futurosophy. However, to deal with it, it is necesssary to have courage and a strong motivation, which is not possible without a fi rm hope. It is necessary to add to the present futurography a futurosophy with a prophetic aspect. Th e result has then to be something more than a series of scenarios, conclusively futurosophy has to help us discover the sense and the aim of our lives. It has to give us a prospect of the fi nal end of the human story on the Earth.” 30 years ago American futurologist Roy Amary defi ned future oriented studies in following way: “Future is not possible to predict exactly because future is not predetermined (is not inevitable). And because future is not predetermined we can infl uence it by our individual choices”. Th e following pages discuss diff erent aspects of our common future – from global challenges, issues of sustainability, development of Western Hemisphere (with special focus to Haiti), to “thinking the unthinkable” in Herman Kahn’s words. What we, people involved in NGOs, think tanks and academic institutions can do for a better future by 2015 and beyond? As Th omas Schauer says: “How do scenarios for our future look like? What are future risks and opportunities and how can we outline possible measures which go beyond present cosmetics?” 8 Learning from the Futures Peter Bishop Scenario Development, Epistemology and Methods Peter Bishop Introduction Th e future is an endless source of fascination for professionals and the general public alike. Ever since the dawn of human consciousness, we have wondered “What happens next?” We have the ability, unique among all species, to imagine states and conditions that are not immediately present. Nevertheless we are not much better at answering the “What’s next?” question today even though strategic foresight has been practiced professionally for more than half a century. What’s the problem? Is the future inherently unknowable? Or are there ways to know the future that are yet to be discovered? While not able to answer these questions defi nitively, this paper approaches them with a review of how we think about the future, some of the methods we use, and some recommendations for doing as well as we can today. Epistemology Th e future is a vast, complex, confusing set of possibilities to most people, and even to some professionals who make their living predicting it. Is thinking about the future much diff erent from thinking about other diffi cult topics, like the hidden laws of the physical world or the character of previous civilizations? No, thinking about the future is no diff erent. It is the same as thinking and knowing about any state or condition that is