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5. Assessment of Pribilof Islands Blue King Crab (PIBKC) [2017]

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5. Assessment of Pribilof Islands Blue King Crab (PIBKC) [2017] 5. Assessment of Pribilof Islands Blue King Crab (PIBKC) [2017] William T. Stockhausen Alaska Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service [NOTE: In accordance with the approved schedule, no assessment was conducted for this stock this year, however, a full stock assessment will be conducted in 2019. Until then, the values generated from the previous stock assessment (below) will be rolled over for 2018 specifications] Summary of Results Historical status and catch specifications for Pribilof Islands blue king crab (t). Shaded values are new estimates or projections based on the current assessment. Other table entries are based on historical assessments and are not updated except for total and retained catch. Year MSST Biomass TAC Retained Total OFL ABC (MMB) Catch Catch 2014/15 2,055 344 Closed 0 0.07 1.16 0.87 2015/16 2,058 361 Closed 0 1.18 1.16 0.87 2016/17 2,054 232 Closed 0 0.38 1.16 0.87 2017/18 230* Closed 0.33 1.16 0.87 2018/19 Not 1.16* 0.87* estimated *Value estimated from the most recent assessment Historical status and catch specifications for Pribilof Islands blue king crab (millions lb). Shaded values are new estimates or projections based on the current assessment. Other table entries are based on historical assessments and are not updated except for total and retained catch. Year MSST Biomass TAC Retained Total OFL ABC (MMB) Catch Catch 2014/15 4.531 0.758 Closed 0 0.0002 0.0026 0.002 2015/16 4.537 0.796 Closed 0 0.0026 0.0026 0.002 2016/17 4.528 0.511 Closed 0 0.0008 0.0026 0.002 2017/18 0.507* Closed 0 0.0007 0.0026 0.002 2018/19 Not 0.0026* 0.002* estimated *Value estimated from the most recent assessment 5-1 2017 Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation Report for the Pribilof Islands Blue King Crab Fisheries of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Regions William T. Stockhausen 20 September, 2017 Contents Executive Summary 3 A. Summary of Major Changes: 6 1. Management . 6 2. Input data . 6 3. Assessment methodology . 6 4. Assessment results . 6 B. Responses to SSC and CPT Comments 7 C. Introduction 9 1.Stock.............................................. 9 2. Distribution . 9 3. Stock structure . 9 4. Life History . 10 5. Management history . 11 D. Data 12 1. Summary of new information . 12 2. Fishery data . 12 3. Survey data . 14 E. Analytic Approach 15 1. History of modeling approaches . 15 2. Model Description . 16 3. Model Selection and Evaluation . 16 4. Results . 16 F. Calculation of the OFL 16 1. Tier Level: . 16 2. Parameters and stock sizes . 18 3. OFL specification . 18 G. Calculation of the ABC 20 1. Specification of the probability distribution of the OFL used in the ABC . 20 2. List of variables related to scientific uncertainty considered in the OFL probability distribution . 20 5-2 3. List of additional uncertainties considered for alternative σb applications to the ABC . 20 4. Recommendations: . 21 H. Rebuilding Analyses 21 I. Data Gaps and Research Priorities 22 Literature Cited 22 Tables 26 Figures 36 List of Tables 1 Management performance, all units in metric tons. The OFL is a total catch OFL for each year. 4 2 Management performance, all units in the table are million pounds. 4 3 Management performance, all units in metric tons. The OFL is a total catch OFL for each year. 5 4 Management performance, all units in the table are million pounds. 5 5 Basis for the OFL (Table 3 repeated). All units in metric tons. 19 6 Basis for the OFL (Table 4 repeated). All units in millions lbs. 19 7 Management performance (Table). All units in metric tons. The OFL is a total catch OFL for each year. 21 8 Management performance (Table 2 repeated). All units in the table are million pounds. 21 9 Total retained catches from directed fisheries for Pribilof Islands District blue king crab (Bowers et al. 2011; D. Pengilly and J. Webb, ADFG, personal communications). 26 10 Total bycatch (non-retained catch) from the directed and non-directed fisheries for Pribilof Islands District blue king crab. Crab fishery bycatch data is not available prior to 1996/1997 (Bowers et al. 2011; D. Pengilly ADFG). Gear-specific groundfish fishery data is not available prior to 1991/1992 (J. Mondragon, NMFS). 27 11 Total bycatch (discard) mortality from directed and non-directed fisheries for Pribilof Islands District blue king crab. Gear-specific handling mortalities were applied to estimates of non-retained catch from Table 2 for fixed gear (i.e., pot and hook/line; 0.2) and trawl gear (0.8). 28 12 Bycatch (in kg) of PIBKC in the groundfish fisheries, by target type. 29 13 Bycatch (in kg) of PIBKC in the groundfish fisheries, by gear type. 30 14 Summary of recent NMFS annual EBS bottom trawl surveys for the Pribilof Islands District blue king crab by stock component. 31 15 Abundance time series for Pribilof Islands blue king crab from the NMFS annual EBS bottom trawl survey. 32 16 Biomass time series for Pribilof Islands blue king crab from the NMFS annual EBS bottom trawl survey. 33 17 Smoothed mature male biomass (MMB) at the time of the survey for Pribilof Islands blue king crab using using the Random Effects Model. 34 5-3 18 Estimates of mature male biomass (MMB) at the time of mating for Pribilof Islands blue king crab using: (1) the “raw” survey biomass time series and (2) the survey biomass time series smoothed using the Random Effects Model. Shaded rows signify averaging time period for BMSY /MSST. The 2017/18 estimates are projected values (see Appendix C). 35 List of Figures 1 Distribution of blue king crab, *Paralithodes platypus*, in Alaskan waters. 36 2 Map of the ADFG King Crab Registration Area Q (Bering Sea), showing (among others) the Pribilof District, which constitutes the stock boundary for PIBKC. The figure also indicates the additional 20nm strip (red dotted line) added in 2013 for calculating biomass and catch data in the Pribilof District. 37 3 Historical harvests and Guideline Harvest Levels (GHLs) for Pribilof Islands red and blue king crab (from Bowers et al., 2011). 38 4 The shaded area shows the Pribilof Islands Habitat Conservation Zone (PIHCZ). Trawl fishing is prohibited year-round in this zone (as of 1995), as is pot fishing for Pacific cod (as of 2015). Also shown is a portion of the NMFS annual EBS bottom trawl survey grid. 39 5 Time series of survey abundance for females (immature, mature, and total). 40 6 Time series of survey abundance for males in several categories (immature, mature, sublegal, legal and total). 41 7 Time series of survey abundance for females (immature, mature, and total). 42 8 Time series of survey biomass for males in several categories (immature, mature, sublegal, legal and total). 43 9 Size frequencies by shell condition for male Pribilof Island blue king crab in 5 mm length bins from recent NMFS EBS bottom trawl surveys. 44 10 Size frequencies from the annual NMSF bottom trawl survey for male Pribilof Islands blue king crab by 5 mm length bins. The top row shows the entire time series, the bottom shows the size compositions since 1995. 45 11 Size frequencies by shell condition for male Pribilof Island blue king crab in 5 mm length bins from recent NMFS EBS bottom trawl surveys. 46 12 Size frequencies from the annual NMSF bottom trawl survey for male Pribilof Islands blue king crab by 5 mm length bins. The top row shows the entire time series, the bottom shows the size compositions since 1995. 47 13 FOF L Control Rule for Tier 4 stocks under Amendment 24 to the BSAI King and Tanner Crabs fishery management plan. Directed fishing mortality is set to 0 below β (= 0.25). 48 Executive Summary 1. Stock: Pribilof Islands blue king crab (PIBKC), Paralithodes platypus. 2. Catches: Retained catches have not occurred since 1998/1999. Bycatch has been relatively small in recent years. No bycatch mortality was observed in 2016/17 in the crab (e.g., Tanner crab, snow crab) fisheries that incidentally take PIBKC. Bycatch mortality for PIBKC in these 5-4 fisheries was 0.166 t (0.0004 million lbs) in 2015/16, but this was the first non-zero bycatch mortality in other crab fisheries since 2010/11. Most bycatch mortality for PIBKC occurs in the BSAI groundfish fixed gear (pot and hook-and-line) fisheries (5-year average: 0.048 t) and trawl fisheries (5-year average: 0.309 t). In 2016/17, the estimated PIBKC bycatch mortality was 0.018 t in the groundfish fixed gear fisheries and 0.364 t in the groundfish trawl fisheries. 3. Stock biomass: Stock biomass decreased between the 1995 and 2008 surveys, and continues to fluctuate at low abundances in all size classes. Any short-term trends are questionable given the high uncertainty associated with recent survey results. 4. Recruitment: Recruitment indices are not well understood for Pribilof Islands blue king crab. Pre-recruits may not be well-assessed by the survey, but have remained consistently low in the past 10 years. 5. Management performance: The stock is below MSST and consequently is overfished. Overfish- ing did not occur. The following results are based on determining BMSY /MSST by averaging the MMB-at-mating time series estimated using the smoothed survey data from a random effects model; the current (2017/18) MMB-at-mating is also based on the smoothed survey data.
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