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Some Truths About Stock Markets by Aniket on August 2Nd, 10 Share Hi Some truths about stock markets by aniket on August 2nd, 10 Share Hi there, From this post onwards, I am going to kick off the discussion on shares as an option to create wealth. Let me start by saying 7 straight truths about stock markets. First, nobody gets rich quickly in stock markets. Some of your friends might have blindly invested in some stocks which, to their luck, gave them exceptional profits. Yet, they never became rich. Did they? So that’s the first truth about stock markets – it’s not a place where you get rich quickly.It takes time to grow your money. Second, it isn’t easy for beginners to make money on the stock exchange. If it was such a simple exercise, Mr. Warren buffet wouldn’t have become so famous. It takes genuine effort to spot profitable investments. Third, your broker, friends, neighbor, colleagues et al would come up with ‘sure shots’ everyday; there are too many stock analysts out there giving out fee based stock recommendations. It’s easy to get tempted by all these people around you. After many years in the market, my thoughts keep wavering when somebody comes up with such ‘sure shots’. Should I explain the fate of a beginner? It’s important to stay off from these temptations. It implies that you ought to have ‘independent thought’. Independent thought is something very hard to carry through. Fourth, most of the investors are a bit too casual with stock markets. They ‘play’ in stock markets. Stock exchange is a wrong place to have fun, speculate and try luck. Stock market is a place dominated by heavy investment houses and financial experts. This is a place where the world’s brightest finance professionals put their best efforts to make right investment decisions. They do all this because it’s real business, with real money and real profits. Nobody is playing around. So, to be successful, you too, need to be serious. You have to view it as a business. When you buy shares, you are buying a company to that extent. Buying a company is no Fun! Fifth, realise the fact that broker’s income is the commissions you give. The more you trade, the more they get. When I was serving as the manager of a broker, I used to get monthly targets for the volume of brokerage that should be generated. If I don’t do that, my salary payment gets delayed. Each branch was viewed as a profit center. Myself and my colleagues used to hit our targets but our investors rarely did! Most of the brokerage houses encourage their clients to do as many trades as possible whether it’s good for them or not, and keep doing it until you have used up all their money. If you get too many frequent ‘Sure shot market tips’ thru sms, mails and phone calls – think twice. Your broker may be interested only in generating commissions. Make sure you don’t get into such traps. Do have faith in your broker, but don’t blindly follow them. They can give you advice but they can’t guarantee that you will make a return on any investment in the stock market. Sixth, as you begin to study the principles, you’ll hear about derivative instruments like futures and options. Things like options and futures are NOT for the beginner with limited resources. They are highly technical, involve the potential to lose all of your investment quickly and need constant monitoring. Playing Futures and options without adequate working knowledge is like gambling at Las Vegas. Finally, you have to keep on working on your stock picking skills. Keep following the market developments. You’ll also need to study some basics on economics, accountancy, income tax and mathematics. So, # No quick riches in stock markets # it’s not the place to have fun with money # you shouldn’t be blindly believing your broker’s recommendations # never try your luck # and, learning is the only way -to make right choices in stock markets. So, let’s begin from the roots. My next post would explain what shares are. Till then ….. ……. Think about the above said 7 points and take a decision that – You’ll put maximum efforts to learn the game and be serious with investments. You’ll not be tempted to make money quickly. You’ll become a smart investor! May God help you to achieve your goals. Bye!!Stocks-explained by aniket on August 2nd, 5 Share Hi there, The first step for anyone is to understand stocks. INTRODUCTION Share means a portion of anything. In our context, share means a portion of ownership of a company.Now, let me discuss the concept with the help of an example. This will help you to get a clear idea of what a share is. Let’s look at a fictional company ‘Say-it-with-flowers’. SCENE 1- The beginning A young couple decides to start a business. Since they knew floral decorations, they decide to start a flower shop. They name their business as ‘Say-it-with-flowers’. They borrowed some money from the bank and started their shop in a small space. The business became successful. However, they made little profit because; all the earnings were invested back into business to buy more flowers to accommodate the increasing level of customers. SCENE 2- A decade after. Ten years later, the business has grown rapidly. The bank loan has been paid off. Profits are over Rs 10 lakhs per year. It also has a book value of Rs 50 lakhs. (Book value is the net value of what the company owns- machinery, furniture, building less any loans). Convinced that “Say-it-with-flowers” could do well in neighboring cities, the couple decides to open two new branches. They research their options and find out that it’s going to cost over Rs 52 Lakhs to open two outlets. To find this 52 lakhs, they had two options- one, take out a loan from the bank. Two, sell part of their company. Since interest rates are high, they decide to take the second route. But how? What would be the cost of a share in say-it-with-flowers? Who will do the valuation? There were several questions to be answered. SCENE 3-The big leap To sell part of their company, the company has to be valued. The person who values a company is called an ‘underwriter’. The underwriter researches the past records, future prospects, background of the promoters etc and discovers that the company is worth 10 times its current profits. What does this mean? Simply, you would multiply the earnings of Rs 10, 00,000 by 10. In this company’s case, the answer is Rs 1 Crore. Add book value, and you arrive at Rs 1crore and 50 Lakhs. This means, in the underwriter’s opinion, “Say-it-with-flowers” is worth Rs 150 lakhs. 40% of 150 is 60 lakhs. So, the couple decides to sell 40% of their company to the public. The underwriters find investors who are willing to buy the 40% share, and give a check for Rs 60 lakhs to the couple. Since the couple still has 60% share, the control of say-it-with-flowers is still with them. SCENE 4- The benefit Now the couple gets 60 lakhs by selling 40% stake in their business to the public. Using that money, “Say-it-with-flowers” successfully opens the two new outlets for Rs 52 lakhs.The balance 8 lakhs is used for day to day operations of the three shops. The two new stores both make around Rs 10, 00,000 a year in profit each.Between the three stores, “Say-it-with-flowers” now makes an annual profit of Rs 30 lakhs. The value of the business is now Rs. 450 lakhs (3 shops x 10 lakhs x 10 times + 50 lakhs x 3) and the couple’s 60% stake is worth Rs 270 lakhs.(450 x 60%) SCENE 5 – At the stock market. Since the people who bought 40% of the share for 60 lakhs, is now worth 180 lakhs, the shares of say-it-with-flowers is in great demand. Since the company increased the wealth of shareholders 3 times, there are investors who are willing to purchase the shares even for an amount higher than 180 lakhs. Each day, shares of say-it-with-flowers are sold to the highest bidder. The place at which the bidding and buying process takes place is called the stock market. SCENE 6 – You as an investor.. Let’s assume that the total shares of the company are 50,000 shares. So, 40% available to the public is 20,000 shares. The issue price was Rs 300 (60 lakhs/20000) but, now the share is worth Rs 900(180 lakhs / 20000). Since a section of the public feels that this winning streak of the company would continue, there is heavy demand for the share and due to this, the price keeps moving up. Suppose the price is Rs 1250 now. Should you buy? The answer is –no. Why? Because, the shares are trading above the ‘real value’ of Rs 900. This real value is also called ‘intrinsic value’. Price drops to Rs 750. Should you buy? Now, one day, due to some rumors, the stock market crashes, and consequent to that, the price of the share plummets to Rs 750 per share. Should you buy? May be, yes! Why? Because, now the share price is below the real value and some time later , you can expect the rumors to settle and that will result in the prices moving back to it’s original level of Rs 1250 or more.
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