Flood Forecasting and Reservoir Operation in the East-Telemark Hydropower System
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Flood forecasting and reservoir operation in the East-Telemark hydropower system Ånund Professor KillingtveitÅnund Killingtveit Emeritus Professor Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU 1 Telemark – major river basins Tinn (4119 km2) 2 Professor KillingtveitÅnund Hjartdal-Tuddal (1000 km ) Bø-Seljord (1056 km2) Tokke-Vinje (3640 km2) Norsjø (999 km2) Catchment area 10777 km2 2 Average flow 263 m3/s Telemark - Hydropower system Professor KillingtveitÅnund Vemork 1911 Såheim 1916 Some summary data: 33 Large HPPs 2179 MW 9932 GWh/year on average 7.5% of HP-generation in Norway 3 Svelgfoss 1907 Telemark- Main hydropower reservoir areas (1) Mår (2) Møsvatn (3) Tokke Professor KillingtveitÅnund 4 Telemark – most flood prone areas Professor KillingtveitÅnund Notodden Norsjø Skien Hjellevatn 5 Lake Møsvatn – The largest reservoir Professor KillingtveitÅnund Catchment area: 1510 km2 Lake/Reservoir area: 78.4 km2 Storage volume: 1066 Mm3 Regulation range: 900-918.5 m.a.s.l. First regulation in 1903 Increasing dam heights later 6 Rjukan - Flood and landslides in 1927 Professor KillingtveitÅnund 7 Tinnelva - Flood in 1927 Professor KillingtveitÅnund 8 Hjartdøla (close to Notodden) – Flood in 2015 Professor KillingtveitÅnund 9 Skien – Flood in 2015 Professor KillingtveitÅnund 10 Source: Varden Upstream – Downstream conflicts Action Flood Damage (Reservoir operation) Professor KillingtveitÅnund but also on > Environment > Energy > Economy > Social Response (Flood impacts) 11 Focus area for the flood model Professor KillingtveitÅnund 12 Flood forecasting model system Hjartdal- West Telemark Bø-Seljord Rjukan-Mår system Tuddal Regulated area HBV 3 Austb. Professor KillingtveitÅnund HBV 1 Kilen HBV 2 Hørte Un- regulated Tinnsjø Heddalsvatn Norsjø 13 Hjellevatn Flood forecasting model system External data Hydraulic model Hydrology model Professor KillingtveitÅnund 14 Flood forecasting model system Professor KillingtveitÅnund 15 Model is operated from one common user interface Menues and commands for Professor KillingtveitÅnund Model setup Data input HBV-model updating Hydrological simulation Hydraulic simulation Report generation Data export … … 16 Typical workflow for model use and operation Run inflow forecast Alternate forecasts by HBV-models for (scenarios) to map next 10 days inflow uncertainty No Professor KillingtveitÅnund Download operation Yes New operation plans for all upstream plans for upstream hydropower plants power plants? No Prepare plan for the Yes Is it possible to operation of improve operation Tinnsjø and Nordsjø in Tinnsjø/Nordsjø? Run flood-model and compute water levels in Norsjø and Hjellevann Results acceptable? No 17 Yes OK Summary – Telemark flood model • Significant flood risk in the river basin in downstream areas • Many large flood events recently – high media focus • Flood damage can be mitigated by hydropower reservoirs • Conflicts between flood mitigation and power generation Professor KillingtveitÅnund • Difficult to find optimal operation for reservoirs The Telemark flood model was developed as a tool • Tested during several years of operation since 2008 «Acid test» during the 2015 flood «Petra» • Good results, but also some weaknesses observed Client: Øst-Telemark Brukseierforening (ØTB) 18.