#273 Leaving the Past Behind: The Russian Presidential Elections of 1996 by Hugh Phillips

I am grateful to many individuals and institutions for direct and indirect support for this project. Western Kentucky University and the International Research and Exchanges Board provided funds for travel to Russia and the Kennan Institute made possible a month of work inWashington D. C. My friend, Cynthia Etkin, read and commented on the entire manuscript for which I am deeply grateful. In Russia my research was facilitated by Boris Gubman, Elena Deshvoi, Anatolii Sokolovskii, Albert Tsvetkov and Lara Dubrova and the staff of the Gorki Public Library in Tver'. Back home I obtained invaluable and cheerful aid from the staff of the various libraries at Vanderbilt University, Duke University, and the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. I also want to thank my friends and colleagues James Baker, Richard Troutman, ElmerGray, and Bob Blalock for their encouragement and support. Finally limitations onspace preventanadequate expression ofappreciation to Laura, Daniel, and Jonathan, who have been there from the beginning.

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© September 1999 Woodrow International Center for Scholars Woodrow Wilson International Center The Kennan Institute for Scholars

The Center is the nation's living memorial to Named in honor of Ambassador Kennan's Woodrow Wilson, president of the United relative, George Kennan "the Elder," a States from 1913 to 1921. Created by law in ninet enth-century explorer of Russia and 1968, the Center is Wa hington, D.C's only Siberia, the Kennan Institute is commited to independent, wide-ranging institute for improving American expertise and knowl­ advanced study where vital current issues edge about the peoples and societies of the and their deep historical background are former Soviet Union. It is one of several area explored through research and dialogue. studies programs of the Woodrow Wilson Center. Lee H. Hamilton Board o/Trustees Joseph A. Can, Jr., Chair . Steven Alan Bennett, Vice Chair · Ex officio Kennan Advisory Chair, trustees:Madeleine K.Albright, Secretary of Herbert J. Ellison, University of Wa hington · State · James H. Billington, Librarian of Con­ Kathleen Parthe, University of Rochester· gress . John W. Carlin, Archivist of the United Oleksandr Pavliuk, Kyiv-Mohyla Academy · States · Penn Kemble, Acting Director, U.S. Elizabeth Pond, Boml, Germany · Linda Information Agency· William R. Ferris, Chair, Randall, University of Rhode Island · Jane National Endowment fo r the Humanities· I. Sharp, University ofMaryland, College Park · Michael Heyman, Secretary, Smithsonian Ambassador Thomas W. Simons, Jr., Institution· Richard W. Riley, Secretary of Education · Donna E. Shalala, Secretary of Stanford University · Mark von Hagen, Health and Human Services· rustee designated Columbia University· Grace Kennan by president fro m within the government: Warnecke, Women Economic Empower­ SamuelR. Berger, National Security Adviser· ment, Kyiv · Larissa G. Zakharova, Moscow Private citizen stees: Carol Cartwright · Daniel State UniverSity L. Doctoroff . Jean 1. Hennessey· Daniel L. Lamaute . Paul Hae Park· Thomas R. Reedy· Nancy M. Zirkin Wilson Council Albert Abramson· Cyrus A. Ansary· Burchenal Ault · ChariesF. Barber · Theodore C. Barreaux . Joseph C. Bell· John L. Bryant, Jr. . Conrad Cafritz . Nicola L. Caiola · Raoul L. Carroll· Albert V. Casey· Peter B. Clark · William T. Coleman, Jr.. Michael D. DiGiacomo · Frank P. Doyle · Donald G. Drapkin . F. Samuel Eberts ill · 1. Steven Edelson· John H. Foster · Barbara HackmanFranklin . Bruce S. Gelb .Jerry P. Genova · Alma Gildenhom .Joseph B. Gildenhom · David F. Girard-diCarlo . Michael B. Goldberg ·Raymond A. Guenter . Robert R. Harlin· a R. Harrah · Eric Hotung .Frances Humphrey Howard ·John L Howard · Darrell E. Issa .Jerry Jasinowski . Brenda Johnson· Dennis D. Jorgensen· Shelly Kamins · Anastasia D.Kelly ' ChristopherKennan · Steven Kotler· William H. Kremer· Ka thleen D. Lacey· Donald S. Lamm . Harold Levy . David . David S. Mandel· Edwin S. Marks· Robert McCarthy · C. Peter McColough . James D. McDonald · Philip .Jeremiah L. Murphy · Martha T. Muse . Gerald L. Parsky .L. Richardson Preyer · Donald Robert Quartel, Jr. . Edward V. . J. Steven Rhodes · Edwin Robbins· Philip E. Rollhaus, Jr. . George P.Shultz · Raja W. Sidawi . Ron Silver · William A. Slaughter' Timothy E. Stapleford . Linda Bryant Valentine · Deborah Wince-Smith· Herbert S. Winokur, Jr. LEAVING THE PAST BEHIND: THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF 1996

In 1996, for the first time Russians pay overdue wages influenced 38 chose among rival presidential candi­ percent of "voters inhis favor- the dates in a relatively free and demo­ highest figure for any issue listed."5 cratic process.1 Pro-democracy reform­ There can be no doubt that ers, led by Boris Yeltsin faced the Yeltsin showered financial promises on Communist-nationalist challenge of the Russians in a fashion grand Gennady Zyuganov. Whatever short­ enough to embarrass even the most comings may have existed in the cynical western politician. Treisman's process, Russians were unquestionably analysis, however, overlooks the fact free to vote for whomever they wished that Yeltsin's chief rival and head of a or even "none of the above." This was revived Communist Party, Gennady important not only for historical Zyuganov, promised the same things. reasons but also because the president At a 17 March rally in Moscow, the holds enormous power: Presidential Communist leader pledged to "in­ decrees are fully binding, unless they crease wages and pensions, [and] contradict parliamentary laws or the compensate those whose savings were Constitution.2 As Timothy J. Colton eroded by inflation.... 6 A Russian succinctly noted, Russia's choice did journalist calculated just before the not concern "legislators who can make first election that the total costs of fiery speeches about this or that, but Zyuganov's promises for renewed the next thing to an elected monarch."3 government funding to industry, And this "king" has his finger on a agriculture, education, health care and nuclear trigger second only to the social services would be between five United States in its destructive capa­ and seven times the present national bility. t? As early as March, western Literally within days, western economists p edicted that the Commu­ assessments of the election appeared. nists' spending promises would Michael McFaul and Peter Reddaway devour Russia's foreign currency spoke before a congressional commit­ reserves and lead to the economy's tee on 10 July, offering well informed, collapse "in a matter of months."B So if quite divergent, assessments of the Zyuganov hardly presented a tight­ meaning of the election.4 Daniel fisted economic alternative to Yeltsin. published the first evaluation Moreover, Yeltsin never delivered in Foreign Affairs. He wrote that on these promises before the crucial Yeltsin's liberal promises of old­ vote and even p ublicly acknowledged fashion American-style pork carried this fact at a May Day rally.9 Well he the president from his abysmal ap­ might because ITAR-TASS had re­ proval ratings to eventual victory. ported on 23 April that the 1996 bud­ Specifically, Yeltsin doubled the mini­ get allocated only a fifth of the benefits mum pension, effective 1 May, and to which veterans were entitled.lO On 8 ordered compensation for people May, after repeated criticism from whose savings had been devoured by Yeltsin, Pension Fund head Vasily the hyperinflation of the last few years. Barchuk fired back, blaming payment By the end of the campaign it was delays on Yeltsin's failure to pay the difficult to find any significan t social government's debt to the fund, which group that received no promises of totaled 4.6 trillion rubles for the period presidential largess. Yeltsin's effort to 1992-1995 Just before the

I second vote Yuri Trukhmanov, a retired within which to receive their pork. police colonel and campaign worker Even Richard Pipes, one of the Rus­ for candidate Aleksandr Lebed, stated sians' sharpest and most astute observ­ flatly: "For all Yeltsin's promises, ers, pointed out that "judging by pensioners here have not been elections, referendums, and opinion paid.. .for January, February, and polls, about two-thirds of Russians­ March. Teachers have not been paid for including the vast majority of educated April and May, and are now being sent people - favour democracy and the on two months' unpaid holiday."12 free market."18 If these economic matters wer But it also seems clear that Rus­ the pivotal issue, why did Russians sians voted for Yeltsin beeau e they bother SWitching to Yeltsin when had a fairly good idea of what they Zyuganov had already made extrava­ would be getting, even that was gant financial promises? The answer hardly exhilarating. Surely memories seems twofold: Yeltsin promised to of Yeltsin's heroic stand in the August carry out these pledges in a democratic 1991 communist coup lingered, how­ context and Yeltsin w as a "known ever tainted by the violence of October quantity" as a national leader. People 1993. Boris Nikolaevich had a certain who know himinsist that Yeltsin's reliable unpredictability but he made it formidable and ultimate goal is to go absolutely clear that there would be no down in history as the man who cre­ going back. ated a modem Russian democracy.13 In another assessment of the Viktor Kremeniuk, an analyst at the election, Angela Stent and Lilia USA-Canada Institute, asserted that, Shevtsova argue that a Communist "Yeltsin has changed from a party victory could not possibly have meant apparatchik into a democratic presi­ a return to a "command economy, dent."14 Zyuganov, however, wanted censorship, and a reinvigorated secret to spend the money within a recon­ police." "New groups with their own structed Soviet svstem.15 As the Com- stakes in the system are becoming munists' official platform asserted: more powerful and would resist any "Everything was right in Soviet history leader who might seek to impose (industrialization, collectivization). All radical change. The clock cannot be sacrifices are justified."1 6Whatpossible turned back...." 19 Perhaps, but the same argument could be put forth against a argument was made in the 19205: system that was always right? And why powerful capitalists had emerged in should anyone have doubted that, once the cities and even more important, the returned to power, the Communists peasan ts were in control of the land would have restored soperfect a system? and simply would not allow the state As AlexanderYanov observed justbefore to take it from them.20 Only a Commu­ the election: "Zyuganov is not just a nist minority seriously contemplated a former communist; his party is not even return to the disastrous postwar trying to hide its true 'patriotic' colors, policies of central control and the free nor is it claiming that it has reformed use of force that had become known as itself. [Moreover] Zyuganov's party "war communism." No one under­ belongs not to the liberal pro-Western stood until it was too late that Stalin wing of its alma mater but to its national­ intended to implement vision of ist, openly anti-Western extreme."17 socialism regardless of the costs. The majority of Russians pre­ Communist politicians have rarely ferred Yeltsin's democratic framework been "rational actors" and the Rus­ 2 sians know better than most munists received about 25 percent of people. Zyuganov is no Stalin; but he the vote, more than triple the results of spoke admiringly of Stalin and that the 1993 elections.21 As 1996 opened, was surely sufficient to chill the mar­ many analyst believed Zyuganov row of millions of Russians. was destined to assume the presidency This paper offers a brief, I hope in the summer. It seemed that history concise, description and analysis of the was about to repeat itself: once again a Russians' rejection of communism and revolution that began as a struggle Yeltsin's concomitant political reincar­ against tyranny seemed headed for a nation. It is based largely on journalis­ new despotism. Many Russians feared tic and scholarly accounts augmented that haVing ousted the Communists in by personal interviews and discussions 1991, they would see the return of their I had with Russians especially during former masters a scan t five years later. May and June, 1996, while in Moscow Others prayed for such an eventuality. and the provincial capital, Tver'. I In late 1995, there existed solid spoke with a many Russians as reasons for the these concerns. Not possible, but most of my conversations only did the December parliamentary were with librarians, archivists, aca­ elections reveal that large segments of demics, and other professionals. With the population would welcome a strangers, for example cab drivers or Communist come back; The New York bar tenders, I would follow a set Times reported that in the city of routine: I would ask who they thought Tambov, about 300 miles south of would win the election. If the person Moscow, the citizens had already made was not hostile, I would then ask why their choice publicly clear: the red he or she fel t one or the other candi­ Soviet flag, not the Russian tri-eolor, date would be victorious. Only if the flew over the city hall and other individual seemed agreeable to con­ government buildings. It is important verse further, would I then ask about to remember that while the Soviet their personal attitudes and hopes for Communist Party lost its control of the the election. This is admittedly an top echelons of power, at the local unscientific approach, but is certainly level, former Communists continued of some value in assessing general as administrators and leaders, wield­ attitudes in Russia. ing great power. Many of these people There is no pretense of compre­ clearly longed for the good old days of hensiveness; it will be many years Soviet socialism. There never was a before like a full story of the Stalinist-style purge throughout the 1996 Russian political events can be state bureaucracy. So in Tambov, they told. Still it is hoped that this examina­ came into the open. tion may be useful to scholars and A Communist victory seemed students who desire an outline of the especially likely because all of the most important events. In particular, various splinter communist groups this paper seeks to describe and ana­ and many nationalist organizations lyze Yeltsin's amazing fall and rise in rallied behind Zyuganov. Of particular the first seven months of 1996 against significance was the support of Viktor the background of crisis, crime, and Anpilov's unregenerate Stalinist party commmunism resurgent. that received 5 million votes in the The 1996 Russian political year December elections, despite little really began with the Duma elections campaigning and no paid advertising. of December 1995 wherein the Com­ In addition, several conservative, 3 patriotic groups expressed their sup­ Not surprisingly, Russians were port for Zyuganov.22 Moreover, a deeply worried about the upsurge in January poll in the military found that crime, a concern that increased as the 22 percent supported Zyuganov, 18 election neared.2B ew millionaires percent the ultra-nationalist and neo­ eagerly bought armored American­ fascist, Vladimir Zhirinovsky and a made Humvees, something of a cross mere 4 percent favored between a Jeep and a tank. A Moscow But several other factors played a dealership advertised the vehicle as much greater role in the Communists' the "ultimate protection from kidnap­ rise in popularity and Yeltsin's plunge. ping and assassination."29 Many of the Crime had spiralled d angerously out poor turned to the Communi ts' of control. The USSR, for all its faults, promise for a restoration of order. A provided its citizens with an almost young bookkeeper, who supported complete freedom of fear from violent Zyuganov remarked that "I want order crime, especially on the streets. Statis­ and security. I've got kids, and I want tics for 1995 revealed that Russia's per them to have at least what I had-a capita murder rate was double that of calm atmosphere and a stable upbring­ the United States.24 The killings of even ing."30 prominent politicians, journalists and A major part of the crime problem businessmen had become so common is that the police, like almost everyone that they hardly elicited much press else, remained grossly underp aid and attention anymore. In early February, therefore deeply involved in bribery Zhirinovsky learned that his close and kickbacks. In Tver' in 1994, I saw a associate, Aleksandr list compiled by the police giving the narrowly survived an assassination prices according to crimes that a victim attempt. Had the attack been success­ must pay before any action would be ful, it would have brought the number taken. For example, to recover a stolen Duma deputies killed since the 1993 car, the owner had to fork over half the elections to five. In that year, 21 per­ car's value. And when people were cent of Russians believed that the arrested, prosecution was difficult. In mafia actually controlled the country.25 the St. Petersburg District Attorney's On 26 February 1996, hitmen entered office, half of the professional the opulent Nevskii Palace Hotel in St. staff had no college training. Finally, Petersburg and mowed down two the police estimated that organized Russians and a Scottish businessman. crime spends about 50 percent its In 1995, a total of seventy-seven Rus­ profits to bride judges and pro ecutors. sian businessmen were gunned down An official at the Butyrka prison in St. Petersburg alone.26 Police esti­ revealed that, of the fourteen "thieves mated that in that year, there were at of the law," as the criminal elite are least 500 contract killings in the whole called, that had been arrested over the country, with 216 such murders in last two years, only one ever went to Moscow, up from 181 in 1994. As of court.31A substantial portion of Rus­ late April, only about 10 percent of sians were near the end of their pro­ such murders had been solved.27 A verbial patience and many be.lieved Moscow official annoymously told that, if nothing else, the Communists C that murder was how the mafia would know how to deal with crimi­ routinely dealt with businessmen who nals. refused to pay debts protection But the picture remained m urky. money. A retired Muscovite engineer told me 4 that crime has always been a major Yet while in Russia before the urban problem. The difference in 1996 election, I saw no increase in the was the spectacular public killings and already large numbers of beggars and the fact that most crime is now fully homeless. Nowhere did I detect food reported, whereas during the Soviet shortages or even complains about a era the press ignored not only crime lack of goods.36 Even the Communist but even natural disa ters. When I was daily, Pravda, conceded that the "most a graduate student Moscow 1982­ important Yeltsin success during his 83, there was much talk of someone years in office was to fill the shelves of 3 wielding an axe outside the Hotel stores various cities. ? How the Rossiia, killing several people, but government managed to keep the nothing appeared the media. And stores full during (and after) the Vasily Aksyonov recently marveled election warrants further study, al­ about how news of a 1953 earthquake though the answer seems to be contin­ Kazakstan that killed at least 100,000 ued borrowing to purchase foreign was completely suppressed in Russia.32 goods. Indeed, the crisis ofAugust Nevertheless, most Russians clearly 1998 showed foremost that Russia had believed that crime has risen dramati­ been on a borrowing binge for many cally and perception is often more years. important than reality. In any case, government income The economy remained a prob­ on election eve continued to fall. In lem. While hyperinflation receded, 1995 oil exports, a source of vital hard (official inflation ates for February currency, dropped by about 5 percent. and March 1996 were a mere 2.8 The head of Russia's Central Bank percent) the generally bleak picture estimated that a whopping 40 percent persisted. Yeltsin even conceded that of Russian businesses were ignoring "people are on the verge of starvation the law and no taxes. Thus, at some areas."33 Russia's Gross the end of March 1996, the Russian Domestic Product in 1995 was 50 Central Bank reported tax arrears percent of the 1991 total.34 The govern­ totalling about $8.4 billion. The federal ment announced March that GDP authorities charged that businesses, for had declined 17 per cent the last two the most part, avoided taxes through years; more serious was the barter and cash trasactions and mu1­ acknowledgement that the 1995 harvest tiple bank accounts under various was the worst since 1963. Grain produc­ names.38 Businessmen, in turn, re­ tion fell a staggering 25 percent below sponded that because their clientele the levels of 1994. Such a ituation was failed to pay its bills, they were unable potentially disastrous a country to pay taxes. Workers, for their part, where about 35 percent of the popu1a­ believed that the owners are taking tion lived below the official poverty line profits and investing them in the of $69 per month therefore, were myriad of fly-by-night and widely heavily dependent on bread for sur­ advertised "investment companies" vival. On 20 March, Yevgeny that have proliferated all over Russia, Savchenko, the chair of the Federation offering up to 50 percent returns on Council's Agricu1tural Policy Commit­ one-year investments. Daily, these tee, estimated that more one third schemes failed large numbers: By of Russia's food needs were m t by early March, 25 million investors had imports 1995 and conceded that the been defraud d.39 Yet, people keep problem was growing.3s coming back, hoping for lottery-like 5 success. A month later, the government Once a Soviet of privilege and revealed that its budget deficit for the fat budgets, the Academy saw its first quarter of 1996 continued to grow. funding slashed by two-thirds since Only domestic and foreign borrowing 1991. Some members eventually joined enabled the state to meet part of its the strike movement, loudly denounc­ obligations.4o Olga Dmitrieva, the head ing Yeltsin.43 of a subcommittee of the Duma's Also hard hit were coal miners, Budget Committee, sharply criticized who on 1 February 1996, Yeltsin's both Yeltsin and the Communist­ birthday, began a strike that quickly included about 500,000 people and spending while revenues continued to shut down over half of the coal mines in Russia. The miners' strike was The general results of this finan­ unique in that management joined the cial disaster were evid nt when the workers. The stoppage was centered in government announced that for the the western Siberian area known as the year 1995, it owed mdustrial and Kuzbass. In 1991, these miners were public sector workers $2.8 billion in instrumental in sweeping Yeltsin into late wages, an increase of 219 percent the Russian presidency. In the 1995 from 1994. The crisis manifested itself duma elections, they gave 53 percent many ways: some humorous, all of their votes to the Communists. After tragic. For example, the Times of a few days, the strike ended with London reported that a textile plant in Yeltsin's promise to begin payments to the city of Bashkortostan,located the miners.44 Where the money would thousands of miles from the ocean, come from remained a mystery. "paid" it wo kers with Russian sailor In March 1996 even soldiers suits. In Voronezh, a machine-building fighting Chechnya had not been plant gave its employees Chinese bras paid since November. Many of them rather than The situation be­ had only sneakers, rather than regula­ came so bad for educators in St. Peters­ tion boots, to wear. But they were burg that the leaders of the university hardly alone. Interior Mini ter, Anatoly professors' union went on a hunger Kulikov, urged Yeltsin to dip into hard­ strike demanding iliat professors currency reserves, renationalize banks, receive their full pay: $128 per month. and increase tariffs to provide the They should perhaps have been funds necessary to avoid a military thankful; secretaries at St. Petersburg collap e similar to the one that was State University received $19 a month, instrumental in the fall of the last not even close to the official poverty Tsar.45 line. The hospitals and other medical In the countryside, the economic institutes of St. Petersburg were also picture was equally bleak. Typical is feeling the pinch. Valery Koryukin, the example of Borodino, scene of the head of the Mayor's Health Commit­ savage 1812 battle with the forces of tee, told The St. Petersburg Press that Napoleon. In June, Father Igor while 1996 federal funding would Vostriakov, a young priest responsible meet staff salaries, the money left over for 20 parishes and churches in the could only buy 9 percent of the medi­ area spoke with the Times . His parish­ cines and 13 percent of the food ioners, he said, represented the losers needed for patients. from five years of reforms. The closure Even the prestigious Russian of th collective farm two years ago left Academy of Sciences felt the pinch. the elderly virtually destitute, while a 6 majority of the young have moved on (and are) more complicated and better searching for work. Vostriakov said than official statistics indicate. In that with a few exceptions- some Russia's "true" economy; the situation people who were thankful to Yeltsin is not so bad. The private sector, which opening the churches- the people comprises more than half of economic of Borodino supported Zyuganov.46 activity as of early 1996, is growing "by The only way for the state and 15 to 150 percent annually, depending nation to survive was to borrow on the industry in question." More­ money and import grain. But the over, "about 90 percent of private government was already so deeply in sector income and 40 percent of all debt that even the United States wages" go unreported to the govern­ government, hardly a model of fiscal ment and therefore fail to show up in responsibility, publicly urged Yeltsin to official statistics. 49 This is without balance his books. Moreover, the IMF doubt true. Anyone who has recently and other banks made it clear that spent much time in Russia knows that delivery of a $10.2 billion loan de­ all sorts of goods and services are pended upon a continuation of eco­ readily available on a cash and carry nomic reforms. Having little choice, basis with no records kept. The atti­ Yeltsin stayed the reform course and tude often encountered is that the on 23 February, the IMF announced its Soviet government stole from the decision to make the loan, with part to nation for so long, that now i th time be sent to Yeltsin before the June to get a bit back by not reporting election.47 But this was largely sym­ income. People who thrive in this part bolic; nothing short of an economic of the economy undoubtedly sup­ miracle could have provided the funds ported Yeltsin. to meet either Ye1tsin's or Zyuganov's The president also received campaign promises. But even this deal enormous good will from the public in held potential problems. The New York 1992 when he transferred ownership of Times reported that, Michel apartments from the state to the resi­ Camdessus, Managing Director of the dents. Although many Russians have IMF, explained with a straight face that been highly critical of the rampant the loan was granted, after months of corruption that accompanied much of haggling, because Yeltsin had kept the privatization process, people I inflation under control. He added that spoke with in Moscow, St. Petersburg, not making the loan "could be inter­ and rver' said receiving title to their preted as taking sides" in the election. apartment was by far the most popular Of course, all Russians knew that aspect of Yeltsin's privatization pro­ "taking sides" was precisely what the gram. A professor proudly told me that IMF was doing and Zyuganov went all his two-room apartment in Tver' out to portray Yeltsin as the puppet of would fetch $20,000. This fact must "imperialist banking asserting have been on people's ,minds as the that Russia was becoming "becoming election neared. dependent on foreign interna­ In a similar vein, Russia's regional tional organizations."48 It is doubtful leaders owed Yeltsin a great deal. He this charge helped Zyuganov: Russians had allowed them to become involved probably did not care where financial in business, although only semi­ aid came from, as long as it came. legally. Many had done quite well as Avraham Shama, however, argues budding capitalists and showed little cogently that economic matters were aversion to corruption. These powerful 7 figures knew all that could change bore no resemblance to the heroic under a Zyuganov government, espe­ figure of 1991.53 Anders Aslund, a cially since the Corrummists never Swedish economist who advised gave any promises to let the regional Yeltsin in 1992-93, went much further, elites continue business as usual. So asserting that "Russia needs a change these provincial bosses, for the most of government; unfortunately, the part, sided with Yeltsin.50 Communists are the only altern Still it is equally clear that the tive."54 Russian economy had serious prob­ It would be difficuJ t, however, to lems, a situation that benefitted argue that the loss of these men seri­ Zyuganov. Many people believe they ously h urt Yeltsin with Russian voters. will receive no pension upon retire­ Kovalev is certainly a respected man, ment or that inflation will consume but of little political weight, while whatever they do receive. All is far Gaidar remains a widely hated figure, from well when a family that includes associated with the explosive inflation a physician and a medical school that accompanied the freeing of prices department head must take in board­ in 1992. 55 The vast majority of Russians ers and regularly sell blood to make undoubtedly have never heard of ends meet. Even more distressing, the Aslund. Russian military reported an increase Nonetheless, it is little wonder in suicides among its officers corps, that people seriously considered a with psychiatrists reporting financial return to communism. The argument problems as a major factor. In one can be made that the election was instance, an officer of the 242nd Infan­ Zyuganov's to lose, something he try Regiment, with responsibility for managed to achieve with Yeltsin's the psychological welfare of his unsolicited help. regiment's officers and soldiers, com­ By the end March, of the major mitted suicide in despair over his reformers, only Anatoli Chubais hungry wife and children. He had publicly backed the president's re­ received "no pay for months."Sl election bid. In April, he joined Finally, Yeltsin watched the pro­ Yeltsin's campaign organization, reform leaders who rallied around him working especially in the St. Peters­ after the collapse of the USSR fall into burg area. He was quite famous for his almost unanimous opposition. In direction of the largest privatization of January, Sergei Kovalev, a Soviet-era state assets in history which put most dissident, nominee for the oble Peace of Russia's retail trade in private hands Prize and former member of Russia's and is very popular with the bankers Human Rights Commission, wrote a and financiers who financed Yeltsin's searing and comprehensive condemna­ re-election effort.56 On the other hand, tion of Yeltsin's policies over the last large numbers of Russians hated or at several months. He was especially least mistrusted Chubais for selling harsh on the war in Chechnya and government holdings at a fraction of concluded that he could not advise any their perceived value. Yet, even his "decent person" to vote for Yeltsin.52 support was essentially negative: He Former prime minister, Yegor Gaidar, said that Yeltsin was the only person asserted that the Communists' best capable of stopping Zyuganov. He hope for gaining the presidency was added rather extravagantly that a for Yeltsin to stand for reelection. He return to Communist policies would sadly observed that Yeltsin in 1996 lead to civil arY 8 By March, however, Yeltsin hit the any case, Yeltsin's economic adviser, campaign trail. It was irrunediately Aleksandr Livshits, announced on 8 clear that he had undergone a com­ April that the government would pletely unforeseen physical transfor­ make the payments over a long time mation. A former tennis pro had period, a policy that would prevent worked successfully to get Yeltsin into another burst of inflation.61 An early better physical condition, including a post-election analysis confirmed that 25 pound weight loss; therefore he was government efforts to reduce wage able to put in a far more energetic, arrears had accomplished little.62 even hectic, campaign schedule than In another typical example, on 28 anyone anticipated. One journalist March, Yeltsin tried to appease the described him as "full of strength and technical intelligentsia and the profes­ completely of himself."58 Most sorate. Rossiiskie vesti reported the important, Yeltsin had his notorious creation of 100 "presidential grants" drinking under control. Rumors worth a total of 6 billion rubles ($1.2 circulated that an aide stayed at the million) to be awarded annually to president's side and doled out vodka young scientists. He pledged to pro­ at levels that prevented obvious vide higher retirement pensions for drunkenness. In May, he even ad­ professors and researchers. Yeltsin also dressed this issue directly, conceding ordered the transfer to higher educa­ on television that he "drinks like a tional establishments of state-owned Russian," commonly understood to buildings they have leased for over 10 mean "to excess." He added that he 63 Without question, the people denied his drinking no one would directly concerned were pleased, but, believe him, a point beyond dispute. again, this measure brought little On the stump, as Treisman tangible, immediate relief. pointed out, Yeltsin promised money Looming over the whole cam­ and benefits to almost everyone, from paign was the bleeding wound of students to retirees. Specifically, he Chechnya, an autonomous republic promised to eliminate pension arrears within the Russian Federation which and to compensate people who lost Yeltsin invaded in December 1994 to their savings the horrific stifle an independence drive started in inflation of 1991- 1995.59This was 1991. By the eve of the first presidential transparently a political move: By all vote, the death toll from this war to accounts these two socio-economic subdue an area the size of New Jersey groups contain large numbers of senior reached at least 30,000, more than half citizens and they were overwhelm­ the number of Americans who per­ ingly pro-Communist. To meet these ished in Vietnam. Many Russians promises, Yeltsin had two basic believed that the actual number was choices: run the ruble printing presses closer to 000 .1>4 Five hundred and or spread the payments out over fifty soldiers were listed as missing or several decades. Andrei lllarionov, hostages of the Chechens. Most of the director of the Institute for Economic dead were civilians. Reports of Russian Analysis in Moscow, observed that the soldiers "fragging," or shooting, their former policy would bring back run­ own officers rose, with many of the away inflation and alienate the former spending most of their time in IMF.60 The latter choice would make no a drug- or alcohol-induced haze. real difference for Russians in the Young civilian men turned to drinking short-term, i.e., before the election. In brake fluid to develop stomach ulcers 9 that would free them from conscrip­ take care of itself. Especially forceful tion.65 All candidates denounced the for this poin t of view was Defense war but the former general and politi­ Minister Pavel Grachev.70 But even a cal newcomer, Aleksandr Lebed, had thoroughly west rnized and humane the clearest and most specific plan: he university professor agreed with bluntly said the was unwinnable Grachev, saying just before the war and a negotiated peace was the only began, "A few battalions and a few solution.66 Equally important, Lebed weeks and it will all be over." Instead, was untarnished by long association Russians saw their military humili­ with the corruption of Russia's politi­ ated, their citizens ubjected to all but cal establislunent. invincible terrorists and their image The was especially tragic further tarnished in the eyes of the because the Chechens have very good world. reasons to be angry and vengeful The crisis deepened dramatically toward the Soviet government. Under in mid-March as approximately 1,000 Stalin, they were deported from their Chechen rebels slipped into the al­ native land into Asia and not allowed ready devastated capital, Grozny, and to return until Gorbachev's era.67 But, made it a liVing hell for about a week. as former U.S. Ambassador to Mos­ Within a few days, the Russians and cow, Jack Matlock, Jr., has pointed out, their dwindling Chechen supporters everyone except the Communists held only a small fortified area in the suffered under the Soviet regime.68 So center, while only yards away rebels it perhaps made little sense for the strolled openly with their automatic Chechens to take out their vengeance weapons. During this same month, a on the post-Soviet leaders. tragicomic, paralytic confusion reigned It is more important, however, that in Moscow as Grachev announced by the beginning of 1996, everyone that, breaking with past policy, he was blamed Yel tsin for this fiasco; in March, willing to meet face to face with even his own Presidential Council v?l The very next day, he publicly denounced his Chechen policy. retracted his statement, saying it is This criticism was well-deserved: Many "time to forget about Dudayev," whom ofYeltsin's own defense and security he described as a "murderer."n Never­ specialists warned him against an theless, Yeltsin himself believed that invasion. Still, few seemed to remember only by ending this fiasco, did he have that in December 1994 Russians were any hope for re-election.73 strongly united in the feeling that On 31 March, Yeltsin unveiled a something had to be done about the new policy to end the war. Hope regime of Dzokhar Dudayev. This soared. All Russian troops were to Chechen "government," which seized withdraw from areas where peace power in a 1991 coup that lacked any prevailed, but they would continue to significant popular support, had openly fight "terrorists." In a dramatic m ove provided haven for people commit­ Yeltsin sent a telegram to Dudayev, ting crimes, usually violent and drug­ promising he was sincere in his desire related, in Russia. 69 Many Russians for peace and proposing negotiations. rejected the use of force to deal with the But Yeltsin refused to meet directly problem, but even among them there with the fonner Soviet Air Force was a strong feeling that the army general; instead, he appointed would effortlessly crush the Chechens, Kazakhstan's respected leader, showing the world that Ru sia could Nursultan Nazerbayev, to that task.74 10 A pro-reform presidential candi­ in Chechnya who refused to lay down date, Grigory Yavlinsky, who favored their arms. BO His policy, therefore, was direct negotiations with the Chechen virtually indistinguishable from separatists, dismissed Ye1tsin's plan, Ye1tsin's. In effect, Zyuganov endorsed saying the fighting would con tinue. As the existing policy of war.8l Mean­ it turned out Yavlinsky was right: in while, Yeltsin presented himself as a the following weeks, combat raged as man striving to achieve peace. One of before. In mid-April, Chechens am­ the strongest impressions I gained in bushed a poorly-protected Russian 1996 was Russians' anger and shame convoy, killing 93, according to the over the Chechen debacle. independent television network, NTV. Beyond Chechnya, broader In exasperation, Grachev offered to foreign policy concerns loomed large resign; Yeltsin ordered a halt to further on election eve, at least among the troop withdrawals. So the war dragged intelligentsia. While most Russians on and the bitterness in Moscow was remained overwhelmingly preoccu­ palpable. But in late April, the Rus­ pied with just getting by day to day, sians finally killed Dudayev, the victim almost half of Russia's voters hoped of a rocket attack in the Chechen the next president would "restore countryside. Yeltsin's camp acknowl­ Russia's status as a great power."82 edged that Dudayev's killing was done Several times in 1996, I heard Russians to win votes.75 It was also widely express anger and resentment at known that Yeltsin detested Dudayev Americans crowing about the U.s. as and therefore his removal was a sig­ the "only" superpower. Many would nificant step toward ending the .76 point out that Russia still had about Yet perhaps the war in Chechnya 20,000 nuclear warheads, more than was not as important as some polls or even America.83 Zyuganov's support­ individual Russians indicated. As the ers warmly applauded his frequent fighting dragged on, Yeltsin's popular­ promise to restore the might of the ity continued its slow climb. VTsIOM Russian state and its status in the announced that over the course of world.84 In January, Yeltsin responded March the president's popularity rate to this frustration when he replaced his grew by 13 percent.77 By mid-April pro-western foreign minister, Andrei only one percentage point separated Kozyrev, with the Soviet veteran, Yeltsin and Zyuganov in one opinion Evgenii Primakov. The latter immedi­ poll.78 And Yeltsin's negative rating ately asserted that Russia had become declined (from 43 to 39 percent) while "excessively pro-western" after the Zyuganov's almost doubled to 26 per demise of the USSR and that he in­ cent.79 Zyuganov simply failed to cash tended to restore Russia's "great in on Yeltsin's liability in Chechnya power" status. To underscore and present a clear alternative to the Primakov's point, the for president's policy. Throughout the Atomic Energy, Viktor Mikhailov, campaign, Zyuganov clearly stated announced in early March that Russia that Chechnya was within Russia's would continue developing new "vital interests," as was all of the nuclear weapons whose ultimate former USSR. He had no intention of purpose is to overcome any anti­ letting the Chechens establish inde­ nuclear defense system.8S A few weeks pendence. Indeed, speaking before the later, The New York Tim es reported Duma, Zyuganov declared it was time Mikhailov's announcement that to get"tougher" with the"gangsters" Russia intended to construct and 11 deploy new nuclear weapons in realized there was little to be gained by violation of the 1987 INF agreement. his denunciations of NATO expansion Moscow justified this forward and quietly dropped the matter in policy in part as a reaction to the early May.89 United States' insistence upon forging Domestic affairs remained para­ ahead with the expansion of NATO mount and in late March, Yeltsin m ade into the states of the former Warsaw a dramatic move that significantly Pact. Secretary of State Warren Christo­ helped his campaign and may some pher publicly call d expansion "non­ day alter Russia beyond recognition. negotiable," enraging Yeltsin and He issued a presidential decree on land Primakov. When former vice president, ownership that permits people to buy Dan Quayle, spoke in April before the and sell land for the first time since the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Conununist revolution. In fact, the academicians made abundantly clear only people who have enjoyed the full their anger with NATO expansion right to land ownership in all of although the topic was not on the Russia'5 history were the pre-revolu­ meeting's agenda. No U.s. policy tionary aristocracy and a minority of could have been better calculated to the peasantry. Yeltsin's order trans­ further damage Yeltsin in the eyes of formed people who rented land from Russians and reinforce the perception the state into outright owners of their of a need for a "strong man" to deal plot. The millions of people who live with the Americans. The pro-reform on farms that were state-run can newspaper, Rossiiskaia gazeta, henceforth sell their shares at no dered Clinton "understands how longer must they get the almost unat­ m uch [NATO] expansion helps the tainable permission of their neighbors Conununists." Similarly, George and colleagues. The only restrictions Kennan, the dean of America's Russian are that foreigners cannot buy land specialists, publicly deplored Clinton's and urban land is off limits.90 forward policy on NATO as ill-con­ Of course, opposition was imme­ ceived and dangerous.86 In an effort to diate and vociferous. Nikolai lessen the damage, British Prime Kharitonov, a leader of the pro-Commu­ Minister, John Major, assured the nist Agrarian faction in the Duma, said Russians that enlarging NATO would that you "can't just turn the farmlands proceed "slowly and cautiously," of Russia into real estate."91Zyuganov taking into account Russia's interests.87 asserted that he would never permit the But this issue simply failed to buying and selling of farmland and said resonant with large numbers of voters. Yeltsin's approval of such policies was The Communists' efforts to cash in on "killing" state and collective farms.92 So NATO expansion did not appreciably the Communists had won, this broaden their support. Valentin measure would have been revoked or Kuptsov, first deputy chairman of the perhaps become another piece of party, declared in late May: "The "superfluous paper," that has so richly choice could not be greater. We will littered Russia's past. Russia's farmers determine whether Russia is turned understood this: After the issuance of completely into a western vassal this decree, Yeltsin enjoyed a "sharp controlled by the U.s. or reacquires its rise" in popularity in the countryside,93 status as an independent, great calling into question the common power."88 Yet Zyuganov's ratings assumption that the farmers were I continued to fall or stagnated. Yeltsin atisfied with the kolkhoz system. 12 But fear remained strong in munist comeback. Similarly, only 23 Yeltsin's camp. It appears that the percent believed Zyuganov could beat president considered a preemptive Yeltsin in a runoff election.97 At the strike by declaring martial law and same time, however, wealthy Rus­ suspending presidential elections, sians flooded the Foreign Ministry using Chechen terrorism as justifica­ with visa requests to "vacation" in, say, tion. In late March, Ye1tsin's top legal Poland until after the election. And, of advisor, Mikhail Krasnov, formally course, these "tourists" intended to announced that elections might be take their money with them.98 The suspended if a "crisis emerges in the State Property Committee reported a country." But how this could have dra tic decrease in the privatization been done was unclear because the rate for the first months of 1996, creat­ Duma has never passed a federal law ing further revenue headaches for the on "emergency situations."94 When a government. The cause for the slow­ Yeltsin aide renewed such talk in May, down was investors' fears of a possible ITAR-TASS commentator, Tamara Communist victory with a subsequent Zamiatina, blasted the idea and renationalization of properties.99 Even pointed out that "not a single publica­ more alarming, rumors flew around tion," even the most pro-Yeltsin or Moscow about the organization of anti-Zyuganov, supported postponing Communist para-military units, remi­ the election.95 Such talk continued, but niscent of the revolutionary Red Yeltsin and Zyuganov consistently Guards of 1917. One report asserted rejected a postponement. that the Communist had 2,000 armed In early April, Yel tsin presented a volunteers in Moscow alone. The more polished and clearer campaign Communi t head of the Duma ­ strategy and style. He even plunged mittee on Security, Viktor lliukhin, into southern rural Russia, impover­ strongly denied this charge, but suspi­ ished and Communist-inclined. He cions lingered.loo criticized himself harshly and asked In the middle of April, Yeltsin people to forgive the fact that life had received more good news. For the first become so difficult for all but the 10 time the prestigious VTsIOM's poll of percent known as the "new Russians," 1,600 people over 18 years of age as the nouveau riches are called. In a showed only 1 percentage point more positive, if vague, vein, Yeltsin separating Zyuganov and Yeltsin, with emphasized "broad themes of family, both hovering just under 30 percent. fighting crime, ending the war in The same organization found, how­ Chechnya and strengthening CIS ever, that the Russian public remained integration."96 But Yeltsin hammered deeply divided and confused. Asked away most effectively at exposing the you were proposed a list of candi­ Communists. He placed before the dates to the presidential post, whom people visions not of order and secu­ would you pick out?" the results gave rity and superpower status, but of Zyuganov 26 percent to Yeltsin's 18 Stalinism and fear and a repressive percent. However, when you added to police-state with long lines for most Yeltsin's vote, Lebed's and Yavlinsky's goods when they were available at all. 10 percent each and those who favored This effort began to show results, other marginal but anti-communist but people were still nervous. Another candidates, the result was about a 50 April poll indicated that 40 percent of percent vote against Zyuganov. 101 Thus Russians definitely opposed a Com­ if a run-off occurred Yeltsin had a 13 reasonable chance for victory if all the industrial production should be re­ other candidates endorsed him or vived and the tax collecting system simply did not adamantly reject him. improved, but gave no specifics on This poll, combined with the death of how these universally acknowledged Dudayev, sent the Moscow stock needs could be met. He also denied market by 13 percent in one that he felt any pressure from "leftist week. Under strong pressure from parties," presumably meaning people Chubais, a reluctant Gaidar reversed like Anpilov.106 himself and endorsed Yeltsin. 102 In a May radio address, At the same time Yeltsin did well Zyuganov again struck a conciliatory on his China trip and signed a poten­ tone. He specifically pledged to sup­ tially lucrative petroleum deal with port a "mixed economy" and rejected a Kazakhstan and Oman, which in­ renationalization of privatized enter­ volved several U.S. oil If prises as long as they "pay their taxes successful his deal could break a honestly and properly." He added that deadlock of the past few years on "If you start taking things away tomor­ exploiting central Asian oil. 103 Even row, then I can assure you the result more good news arrived from Paris as will be turmoil worse than in April turned to May.l04 Eighteen Chechnya. " There would be no perse­ creditor nations granted Russia an cution of political opponents under a extra seven years to repay its $40 Communist government. He asserted billion debt. Specifically, the deal that "proper democratic development meant that Russia would only have to is impossible without political pay $2 billion in 1996, rather than the tition and opposition. The [Communist cheduled $8 billion. The Russian Party of the Soviet Union] rotted and negotiators then flew to London to talk fell apart because it just could not with other western bankers about the remove from office a general secretary rescheduling of $25.5 billion in other who sold it out and betrayed it." 107 loans. Thus, Yeltsin had more to spend But in general, his claim that the domestically, although still not nearly Communists had "reformed" was enough to meet obligations that grew unconvincing. His disparaging remark with each presidential campaign about Gorbachev indicated that speech. Zyuganov wanted the bureaucratic, On the other hand, Zyuganov's command form of socialist dictatorship campaignpresented a picture of developed under Brezhnev. Moreover, confusion, almost incoherence. The he favored a "voluntary" restoration of Communists' basic, and insoluble, the Soviet Union,lOB whereas in reality problem was to retain their core fol­ such a move could only be accom­ lOWing of about 30 per cent of the plished by force. Zyuganov even electorate, while somehow appealing publicly rebuked Yeltsin on election to voters who intensely disliked eve for his "loss" of Ukraine. The men Yeltsin, yet feared even more a return around Zyuganov assured their domes­ of the old regime. 105 The result often tic audiences that any talk of "soci31­ seemed like a deliberate attempt at democracy" was for export only: The obfuscation. In a 21 April TV interview, party intended to restore the Soviet Zyuganov said all forms of property Union and its centralized state-owned would be respected but refused to give economy if elected.I09 Zyuganov flatly specific guarantees about private added that "western European-style property. He added that dome tic social democracy stands no chance in 14 Russia."110 Anatoly Lukhianov, the dreadfully familiar to Russians: The Communists' top legal expert and the nationalization of "enterprises, shops, man slated to have become companies, subsidiaries of those Zyuganov's attorney-general, asserted: companies, equipmen t, buildings, "We are the same Marxist-Leninist patents, shares, and stockS."1l7 party." The published party program In early April, and after pro­ called for the "end to the blackening... tracted fighting among the party and of the teachings of Lenin."1ll For good its allies, the Communists finally measure, Lukhianov accused Yeltsin of published a summary of their

JIgenocide" for the violent clashes in nomic ,11s As in 1917, there September and October 1993 between were promises of guaranteed employ­ the president and the Supreme 0­ ment, cheap housing and consumer viet. 1l2 As early as March, a high­ goods, and elimination of capitalists' ranking party member (and conspira­ JIexcessive profit "by means of a tor from the failed coup of August confiscatory tax on the rich. As in 1991), Valentin Varennikov, asserted Stalin's time, the chief empahisis was that the party had a secret "maximum on heavy industry, which the Commu­ program" which would be unveiled nists intended to restore to 1990 levels and implemented only after Zyuganov by protective tariffs and higher was in the Kremlin.1l3 A week before governent investment. Private land the first vote, in a stunning blunder, ownership would be strictly limited to Zyuganov spoke admiringly of Stalin, small garden plots, with retention of the greatest mass murderer in Russian the remarkably inefficient collective and western history, asserting that the farms. Profits of private businesses dictator had died too soon; had Stalin would be strictly limit d and prices of lived "five or six years longer, the industrial, agricultural and consumer Soviet Union would have been goods would also be controlled, beg­ undefeatable for ages."114 Zyuganov ging the question "what's left unregu­ also claimed that under Stalin lated?" Rent and utilities would also than a million people were killed, be set by the government and could suggesting that such slaugh ter was cost no more than 5 percent of a lease­ acceptable.ll5 With a Zhirinovsky-like holders' salary. Families of retired disregard for the truth and in an srevicemen would recieve free hous­ awkward attempt to court the Ortho­ ing. Jobs would be guaranteed for dox vote, Zyuganov publicly put forth university graduates in their chosen the bizarre notion that one of Hitler's speciality. Foreign companies would be goals in Russia was to establish Protes­ closely supervised and could not hold tantism. Yet Zyuganov's version of controlling interests in "key industries Hitler had its good points: he publicly of the basic branches of the economy." declared that in the 1930s, Jews held a A state monopoly would be estab­

JIcontrolling interest in the entire lished for "strategically important economic system of western civiliza­ export goods," meaning petroleum tion."11 6 and gas. Finally the Communists But most revealing and troubling called for the "certification of harmful of all, Igor Bratishchev, a party econo­ intellectual output," whatever that mist openly revived one of the Bolshe­ means. The funds for this massively viks' original goals: The global estab­ expensive program would come not lishment of socialism in the next from the IMF but the reestablishment century. And his vision of socialism is of export tarriffs on oil and gas. 119 15 Many Russians told me it was highly Another effort on 27 May to elucidate unlikely such a policy could raise Communists' policy positions sufficient revenue to meet its goals. yielded nothing concrete. Rather the Duma member, Irina Khakamada, said platform simply contained trite prom­ that Zyuganov's plans meant "govern­ ises to do things like "accelerate ment monopolies on international modernization" and give priority to trade, strict state control of banks, the interests of "Russia and labor...."123 more attempts at renationalization of Andrei TIlarionov said that property."120 In the 1920s the Commu­ Zyuganov's economic platform consti­ nists faced a simliar problem with tuted a "common set of modern insuffficiet capital; Stalin "solved" this myths" that reveal d either delemma thourgh forced labor and Communist's ignorance or his effort to terror. On the stump, Yeltsin guaran­ position himself for office of prime teed that Russians remained acutely minister.124More bluntly, Viktor Linnik, aware of this fact.121 the former editor of Pravda, pointed A serious problem with out that too much of Zyuganov's Zyuganov's economic plan was its campaign was simply negative, "child­ general vagueness, especially in the ishly anti-Yeltsin," in his words, and area of privatization. The Communists that the Communists "proved weak on pledged absolute respect for all positive signs which finally limited privatization accomplished "without his voter appeal."l25 Violating the law." But, as The St. Finally it is important to note that Petersburg Times asked, what does this the Communists never successfully mean? "Privatization was largely backed away from this extreme, reac­ accomplished not by law but by tionary program. Indeed, if anything presidential decreee." Had the Com­ their stance toughened as first vote munists won, they might well have neared. And the press the ruled that Yeltsin's decrees were null historian, Yevgenii Anisimov, wrote a and void because he had carried out a devastating critique of the Zyuganov "coup d'etat" in September 1993 and program in mid-May that must have therefore all his subsequent actions caused a shudder in most readers.126 were illegal. Or they could have ar­ In short, the Communists be­ gued that privatization was illegal lieved that the rural and senior citizen because it had never been confirmed vote would be sufficient to win the by the Duma.122These were quite presidency. Thus they failed to reach serious matters and, judging from out to groups that might have been conversations with Russians, many their allies: "skilled workers, youth, people feared a Communist regime the intelligentsia and residents of the might well renationalize most private largest cities." The Communists talked property. Others were not so sure: A of new people and new methods; at restaurant owner in Tver' told me that one point, Zyuganov spoke of the such a drastic action was unlikely serious need to reach "young people because private business and apart­ and many who are skilled laborers in ment ownershop were too well­ high-technology" parts of the esatablished. Still the fear on his face economy.127But in the end they relied was real. It was impossible to say with on the groups that had voted for them confidence what the Communists in might do and Zyuganov's ambiguity By mid-April, the Communists only exacerbated fears of the worst. had clear warning that their ortillles 16 had plunged considerably from the the issue of conscription. In a bid for heady days of December 1995. In re­ the youth vote, he decreed the gradual gional elections :in Sverdlovsk province, transformation of the Russian military the pro-Yeltsin Eduard Rossel's organi­ into an all-volunteer force, with an end zation triumphed, with the Conununists to conscription by 2000. a separate receiving only 16 percent of the vote.In decree, Yeltsin also ordered that only other recent regional contests, Corrunu­ volunteers be sent to combat zones, nists had lost ten seats in the Altai like Chechnya. Boris Gromov, a former territory's legislative assembly. And this deputy defense minister active in despite (or because of), Zyuganov's visit Yeltsin's campaign, claimed these just before the vote. Omsk the Com­ moves were unrelated to the impend­ munist failed to win a single seat in the ing election, an assertion only the most regional assembly. Most ominous, these purblind could have believed.132 areas had traditionally been areas of Whatever the motivation, the gesture Conununist support.129 was probably not necessary. A poll of Nonetheless and fearing the students at Moscow State University worst, German Chancellor Helmut and the city's various institutes of Kohl and French Premier Jacques higher education, revealed an over­ Chirac publicly and vigorously en­ whelming majority favoring Yeltsin. dorsed Yeltsin. More important, they Only at the Federal Security Service quietly poured substantial sums into Academy did Zyuganov obtain a Yeltsin's election coffers. Michael plurality of 49 percent; among students McFaul, a senior analyst at the at Moscow State's Department of Carnegie Endowment's Moscow office Economics, the Communist leader supported this largess. Regarding a received not a single vote.J33 possible Communist victory he said, Meanwhile, Yeltsin continued think the west is right to panic. "130 The strewing extravagant fiscal promises. Clinton administration's efforts were He signed a decree authorizing the far milder and largely nullified by its payment of compensation to deposi­ stance on NATO expansion. tors over eighty years old who lost As the campaign wore on, Yeltsin their savings to inflation. Compensa­ moved to counter Communist and tion is to be on a sliding scale up to nationalist nostalgia for the former 1/000 times their initial deposit, with a USSR. He met with the presidents of maximum payment of one million Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus rubles ($200). While this p olicy imme­ on 16 May. They signed an integration diately affected only a small number of agreement that dealt mainly with tariff voters, it was a group strongly in the regulation, the unification of foreign Communist camp. And it had a ripple currency control, and statistical ac­ effect: In general Yeltsin's ratings counting. The next day, the four presi­ among the elderly rose "notably dents gathered with the other CIS higher."I34 Also, a new Federal Social leaders to discuss further integration State Fund for the Defense of Deposi­ measures. At the end of the meeting, tors and Shareholders was formed at the other presidents indirectly en­ the beginning of May. The forked dorsed Yeltsin, declaring their "sup­ over $31 million to be used to compen­ port of the democratic process in sate investors.135 Russia. " 131 As if to compound the state's At the same time, on 16 May, monetary problems, Yeltsin issued a Yeltsin completely reversed himself on decree on 21 May promising to freeze 17 the number and level of taxes as of radio journalists. Meetings with top January 1997. The president also government officials highlighted the exempted firms from the 10 trillion event. Yeltsin pointedly asserted that rubles ($2 billion) in penalty payments am not calling on you to campaign on owed as a result of late payment of [my behalf], but I expect from you a taxes. Finally, he cut the daily penalty responsible attitude toward what is for future tax arrears from 1 percent to happening in Russia./I Procurator­ 0.3 percent. With a revised Tax Code General Yuri Skuratov promised he languishing in the Duma, Yeltsin's would devote "special attention to decree carr"ed the weight of law and protecting journalists' rights in cases w as extraordinarily popular with when the victim of a crime, or the business. It also showed a fiscal irre­ accused, is a journalist." On 7 May, sponsibility that would embarrass State Press Committee Chairman, Ivan even most western politicians.l36 Laptev, advised the journalists on Continuing his policy of lavish obtaining legal tax and customs privi­ promises, on a late May trip to the far leges under the law on state support north, Yeltsin fla tly declared, "I've for the mass meclia.139 come with full pockets....Today a little The media's bias was sufficiently money will be coming into blatant that in the Moscow apartment Arkhangelsk Oblast'." In Vorkuta, building where I stayed in June, a Yeltsin announced 133 billion rubles resident Zyuganov supporter became ($26.6 million) for the Pechora coal so furious that he climbed to the roof basin. More telling, the head of the and destroyed the television antenna Independent Miners' Union said that for the building. Yasen Zasursky, dean 78 billion rubles in back wages arrived of Moscow University's journalism just before Yeltsin. In addition, the school remarked that "the old heritage president promised other benefits for of partisanship is still there. /1 140 Mikhail the miners, including"subsidized Gorbachev told an audience in Kazan summer holidays for thousands of that are under a complete infor­ children, grants for the construction of mation blockad e."141 In a similar vein, retirement homes in warmer regions, Yavlinsky said that the whole cam­ and a 40-60 percent reduction in paign had revolved around "to what railroad tariffs on coal from extent Zyuganov [is] worse than Vorkuta./l137 Similar promises would Yeltsin. "1 42 Simply because the press continue from a government already was no longer under government deeply in debt. control did not mean it was impartial. Yet, few journalists asked Yeltsin Of particular interest was the slick the tough and obvious question: and free newspaper/' Ne dai bog (God Where will the money come from?l38 forbid), which was almost entirely The reason for this attitude was that devoted to bashing Zyuganov. It first the media, especially television, un­ appeared in Zyuganov's home region, abashedly favored Yeltsin. Daily he Orel province, left free of charge in the received only positive coverage from mailboxes of practically all newspaper most reporters. Without a doubt, subscribers. It had a daily run of 10 ltsin's camp used its full powers of million and usually featured a doc­ incumbency to win over the media. On tored, full page color photograph of a 6-7 May, the government's regional hideous Zyuganov, making him ap­ press agency opened an all-expenses pear insane or devilish or both. Anti­ paid "seminar" for 80 television and 60 Communists loved it and delighted in 18 showing it to foreigners. The govern­ people in the West understand that a ment issued instructions that no one political fight is going on here that has was to interfere with the distribution no rules. And if the Communists win, of Ne dai bog. 143 On election eve, the then the media will lose their indepen­ state owned television network, aRT, dence. There is no 9 broadcast a four-part serial on the Similarly, Igor Golembevsky, writer Maxim Gorky, that stressed the editor of the pro-reform Izvestiia, brutal excesses of the Stalinist regime. remarked that "Naturally the people The film ended with a solemn who work here are democrats and that voiceover: "Now, at the end of the influences stories. There is a century, Russia is once again in danger political struggle going onhere that of losing its way, and turning toward peaks on 16 June, and it is not like the this evil system."144 West, where there is no danger of On the other hand, Zyuganov democracy being destroyed."Iso received favorable press only from However, one hould be careful in Pravda and Sovetskaia Rossiia. It is, assessing the media's role in the however, important to note that these election. For obvious reasons, the newspapers were readily available former citizens of the Soviet Union are throughout Russia. And OSCE observ­ quite cynical about veracity in the ers said that legal provisions about free press. In most of the twentieth century, TV and radio time for candidates were it has been the tool of the ruling clique followed with "scrupulous fairness."HS and is still viewed with great skepti­ On all other fronts, Zyuganov cism. Moreover, its power is cleady constantly faced questions about the Professor Zasursky pointed horrors of Soviet communism, espe­ out that during the 1995 parliamentary cially the purges, the anti-church elections, two of the main television campaigns, and the crushing of dis­ channels, aRT and RTR, clearly fa­ sent. An exasperated Zyuganov ac­ vored Prime Minister Viktor cused the national media, particularly Chemomyrdin's Our Home is Russia. television, of conducting an "informa­ That failed to prevent the Communists tion blockade" of his campaign. Politi­ from outpolling that party by more cal commentator, Andrei Cherkizov, than two to one.1Sl shot back that "there is a Communist Then in early May, the prestigous press to build up Zyuganov's im­ Institute of the Sociology of Parlia­ age."146 Cherikizov had a point. In late mentarianism dropped a genuine March, Moscow-based sociologist bombshell: it announced that a poll of Boris Grushin analyzed almost a 6,000 people across Russia showed month of campaign coverage and Zyuganov's support at between 38 and found not one of Pravda's 56 stories 47 percent. If accurate it appeared about Yeltsin was favorable.147 possible that the Communists could The reason for this bias w as win outright in the first ballot. What obvious: To a great extent, the media made the news especially Significant is owed its freedom to Yeltsin. Journalists that this institute was virtually alone felt that to have been impartial to in predicting a strong showing by Zyuganov, who clearly intended to Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic reintroduce censorship, would have Party in both the 1993 and 1995 elec­ 152 been foolish and suicidal. 148 As Nikolai tions. In the 26 May New York Times Svanidze, a Russian television director, Magazine, Alessandra Stanley wrote said on 1 May 1996: "I am not sure that from Moscow: "IjYeltsin makes it into 19 the second round," he still might fail to prices 74 percent in dollar terms in just pick up enough support to beat two months. The Moscow Times ruble­ Zyuganov." (Italics added). adjusted index leaped to an all-time But almost simultaneously, C high of 233.50. One exhausted trader and The Moscow News released a poll exclaimed "We hit the record number indicating that Yeltsin was pulling of deals we've done. All our clients are ahead in the presidential race, having calling in at the same time. The dealers opened a significant lead over are on the phone constantly." 156 Zyuganov. The poll gave Yeltsin an In early June, Russian eyes tem­ advantage over his opponent with 27.7 porarily focused on St. Petersburg's percent of respondents favoring the mayoral run-off between incumbent president, contrasted with Zyuganov's Anatoly Sobchak and his breakaway 19.3 percent. Twenty percent were First Deputy Mayor, Vladimir undecided. A VTsIOM poll gave Ye1tsin Yakovlev. The Gallup poll gave a more modest 28 to 27 percent advan­ Sobchak a solid ten point lead and a tage. IS3 The deputy director of The poll by the Academy of Sciences gave Institute for Comparative Social Sobchak an eleven point lead.ls7 But in search, Anna Andreyenkova, pre­ a major upset, Yakovlev won 47.9 dicted that the president would percent to Sobchak's 45 .8 percent, with continue his rise in popularity. "We 6.3 percent voting against both candi­ have been monitoring Yeltsin's dates.lss Moscow was abuzz with progress constantly," she said. "Since speculation about the implications for mid-April he has been gaining in the presidential race (and the reliability popularity at a rate of 1 to 3 percent of Russian polls) because Sobchak had per week. Zyuganov's support is tried to link his quest to remain in absolutely stable, he is standing in power to Yeltsin's struggle with the place." Andreyenkova added that Communists. Aleksandr Yerofiyev, a "Ye1tsin is waging a very effective researcher for Gallup in Russia, said campaign, if not completely openly. He the ultimate national effect depended is constantly on television, constantly on who would be able to put his spin traveling, creating the impression of on events. "The Communists will the balanced, moderate master of the probably try to create the myth that the country, something we haven't seen defeat of Sobchak signals a defeat for much of for the past two years.Yeltsin's Yeltsin. If they can perpetuate this most effechve tactic has been to say 'I myth then the results will hurt may not be great, but I'm the best of a Yeltsin. " 159 bad lot'. That is what he is doing As it turned out, the Communists now. "154 never got a chance to try to exploit Yeltsin continued his ascent from Yakovlev's upset. The day of his the depths and some believed a victory election the new mayor said "There are in the first round was possible, Yeltsin today no alternatives to Boris Yeltsin, included. The economy did its bit to and people that I respect, like help the incumbent: inflation remained Yavlinsky, should understand this and very low. 155 Optimism gripped the confirm it. " 160 business community. On 29 May, Meanwhile, Yeltsin continued his Moscow stock markets reached hectic pace. In Perm, on 31 May, he record-setting highs, with The Moscow strolled around the city talking with Times index soaring 18.96 points, pensioners and teenagers alike, rein­ continuing a rally that raised stock forcing his vigorous, yet smooth, 20 image. Even when an elderly woman agreement with the rebels that called berated him on her wholly inadequate for a complete cease-fire and cessation pension, Yeltsin remained cool and of hostilities as of midnight 31 May. On promised that minimum pensions the 29th, Yeltsin made a well-televised would eventually equal the minimum visit to the troops near Grozny creating standard ofliving.161 But the crowds a mostly favorably impact.165 Even a were mostly sympathetic. In his after­ few Communists admitted that the noon speech, he promised a landslide president's trip was a brilliant political victory in the first vote and an end to stroke. Reactions varied and many "civil and ethnic unrest in Russia," a people were Simply bewildered, but reference to Chechnya.162 mo t seemed favorably impressed. In the week before the first vote, Even the strongly anti-war Izvestiia, Yeltsin put in a murderous schedule, found praise for Yeltsin, but lamented accented by his continuing largess, that that he had should have taken similar soon led to an undisclosed heart steps earlier. l 66 On 10 June, Yeltsin attack. He spent Monday, the 10th, obtained an agreement to end the criss-crossing Russia from Siberia to month war. The deal provided for a the Black Earth region. Wednesday Russian troop withdrawal by the end saw a whirlwind tour of St. Petersburg, of August and for the Chechens fight­ where he promised 350 billion rubles ers to disarm. Once Russia's troops ($70 million) to the Baltic Shipbuilding had left, local elections were to be held, Factory for the completion of an seemingly removing an obstacle that icebreaker. He also issued a series of had been blocking agreement. The decrees on 7 and 8 June that included arrangement, however, failed to deal the transfer of 3.8 trillion rubles ($790 with the future status of Chechnya, an million) to pay for teachers' annual issue that had wrecked previous leave, instructed Chernomyrdin to agreements.167 Non theless, the mili­ submit a bill within twenty days to the tary approved Yeltsin's peace initiative: Duma that would give civil servant A poll in January gave him only 4 status to health and ducation special­ percent support among Russia's ists and raise their salaries. Yeltsin also soldiers; in the June election a majority gave residents of Russia's Far East a 50 of the military supported him and a percent di count on rail or air fares to whopping 82 per cent of those fighting central regions once every two years. in Chechnya voted for Yeltsin. l 68 Finally, he proposed a bill that would As it turned out, this agreement raise child allowances for single had little affect on events in Chechnya. mothers and reduce taxes on families The press continued to report viola­ with several children. On Friday he tions of the ceasefire. Still, despite the returned to his hometown, opinion polls, there is no evidence that Ekaterinburg.163 There the vodka the fighting hurt Yeltsin significantly began to flow unabated once again. or that the Communists were able to However, before the party began benefit from it. Yeltsin had a final problem to tackle. Meanwhile, Zyuganov kept an Aware of an opinion poll which equally active travel pace, especially claimed that almost 60 percent of since he had completely eschewed any Russians felt ending, not winning, the national advertising campaign. In­ war in Chechnya was of paramount stead, he relied on grassroots activism, importance, he worked hard at just something Zyuganov called "man to that.1M In late May, he signed an man, heart to heart" canvassing. But in 21 the week before the first balloting, Russia is with US." 17! Russians are Zyuganov speeches remained entirely certainly unsophisticated in western­ negative: he spoke of the hungry style political campaigning, but surely Russians who, if placed one after they can spot such blatant incoherence. another, would stretch from Moscow Just days before the election, a to the Ural Mountains; the unem­ bomb ripped through a metro car ployed from Moscow to the Volga killing four and injuring twelve. River and those swindled in the no­ Yeltsin blamed it on unnamed ele­ holds-barred investment companies, ments attempting to destabilize the from Moscow to Lake Baikal, north of nation at that important time. How­ the Mongolian border. A western ever, Yeltsin's friend and supporter, reporter covering the Communists, Moscow mayor, Yuri Luzhkov, was observed that "Zyuganov said he less political. "The explosion was would change the country, restoring carried out by those who doubt their the Russia of old. He did not explain success in the elections and want to how. He just said he would...." 169 aggravate the situation in order to Even more telling were the cancel voting. The terrorist act is remarks of Valentin Romanov, first backed by the forces which want to secretary of the Samara city ­ bring the country back to 1917, the nist Party committee. Speaking before 1930s, the postwar year, the years of a secret party plenum on 18 he queues, shortages, limited freedom characterized Zyuganov's campaign and limited consciousness." Once statements as "insipid" and described again, Zyuganov stumbled badly. His his platform as "nothing but slogans." response to this vitriolic attack showed There was no dissent from Romanov's either remarkable restraint or an remarks.170 Clearly many Communists inability to take off the gloves politi­ were already prepared for the coming cally. In neither case, did it net him defeat. political points. He told a gathering of At a final Moscow rally, the students near Moscow University that atmosphere was positively bizarre. A "This [bombing] is the latest ymptom few hundred young people, brought in of several years of free-for-all politics," especially for the occasion, mixed a bit referring to the often uneasily with the far more numerous messy nature of emergent democracy. elderly rank and file with their posters He then offered his standard attack on of Lenin and Stalin. The speakers gave rampant crime. "We demand that the forth a wholly muddled "message." authorities take effective security Zyuganov said, "We will lead the measures and fight those who commit people not to the past but to the future. such atrocities." I72 Thus, having been We will rely not on concentration charged practically with terrorism, camps, not on an Iron Curtain, not on Zyuganov responded with an ordinary prison labor but on modem culture, campaign speech. the best Russian and Soviet tradi­ At a final press conference, tions." Zyuganov then quoted exten­ Zyuganov predicted a Communist sively from the Bible, comparing victory in the first round. "Mr. Yeltsin Yeltsin to a "beast from Hell" and claims that his rating has grown from 6 making a strong pitch for the national­ to 50 percent. Only bamboo in the ist vote. Viktor Anpilov followed, tropics grows at such a rate," crying that "We will win because Zyuganov quipped in rare effort at Lenin is with us, Stalin is with us, and humor. "We are confidently going to 22 the polls, and I can say that we have Most surprising was Aleksandr won because the latest polls Lebed's third place finish with 15 say that two-thirds of the country's percent.178 The iormer general, para­ citizens support the ideals of popular trooper and boxer, ran on a no-non­ patriotism and social justice," he sense anti-crime and corruption plat­ said. 173 form. 179 Moreover, his intention to end There were little grounds for conscription and create a professional Zyuganov's optimism. On the army appealed to many young voters. election's eve, a final poll showed that According to one specialist, the Yeltsin while only 36 percent of the respon­ camp had been in touch with Lebed dents intended to vote for Yeltsin on since March and in April a deal was the 16th, a whopping 57 percent struck that included giving Lebed believed Yeltsin would ultimately be access to Yeltsin's financial backers and re-elected. In January, only 14 percent promised him a prominent post in thought Yeltsin could win a second Yeltsin's next govenunent.1BO After the term. Indeed, of the people who June vote, Yeltsin's people presented definitely intended to vote in the the general with $20 million to finance second round, 53 percent favored a last minute media blitz.l8l As the Yeltsin with only 36 percent for ballot count was still under way, Zyuganov.174This VTsIOM poll shows Yeltsin and Lebed began discussions clearly the deep division and sense of that quickly led to the latter's appoint­ resignation that gripped Russia in the ment as Ru sia's new security late spring and what a remarkable ter. 182 Within hours, Grachev was comeback Yeltsin had managed. sacked and promptly went into a only about a third of the electorate had vodka-soaked depression.183 a reasonably favorable of Nezavisimaia Gazeta, citing"a well­ Yeltsin, a solid majority shrugged and informed source in the Kremlin," expected his victory. Clearly, the asserted that Yeltsin intended to make feeling was there was no viable alter­ Grachev the "main culprit for the native. failure of the federal forces in In fact, neither candidate called it Chechnya, the collapse of military correctly for the first round. In the June reform and the calamitous situation in 16thballoting Yeltsin got 35 percent to the army." Yavlinsky had also made it Zyuganov's 32. In all, democratic­ clear that Grachev's head was his price centrist candidates garnered 60 per for supporting Yeltsin in the run-off cent of the vote and most observers election.1S4 correctly believed they would rally Yet Lebed kept his distance. around Yeltsin, if only because of their Speaking of the choice between distaste for Zyuganov. While the first Zyuganov and Yeltsin, he growled to round showed clearly that many reporters: "1 faced two ideas, an old Russians longed for a return to com­ one which caused much bloodshed munism,175a solid majority were anti­ and a new one which is being carried Communist.176 onetheless, Yeltsin out very poorly. I chose the new could not be complacent. A poll of idea."18S An individual clo e to Lebed 1,500 people in fifty-six cities and flatly stated that: "We've got to empha­ villages conducted by the All-Russian size that Lebed is joining the adminis­ Public Centre on 18- 19 June tration so as to reform it, get rid of the revealed that only 47 percent definitely corrupt element, and keep YeI tsin up to intended to vote for Yeltsin. I77 the mark."l86 The emphasis was more 23 on fear of Communism, than positive With Lebed on board, it looked support for Yeltsin. like things would go smoothly: A poll An All-Russian Public Opinion from CNN/ Moscow News gave Center on 19 June announced that of Yeltsin 50 percent to Zyuganov's 24.8. Lebed supporters 39 percent favored Therefore, even Zyuganov got all of Yeltsin while only 14 percent would the 13 percent who remained unde­ vote for Zyuganov. But 39 percent also cided, YeItsin would still win. Then had yet to make up their minds. 187 ot Yeltsin disappeared for the week surprisingly, Lebed voters felt little before the runoff. Officially he had a zeal come election day. As Yuri cold and laryngitis; all Andreyevichy, an engineer, said: "1 fears were on his heart and ng. voted for Lebed because I believe he The concerns were well-founded: the would try to do something against Times reported that between the two ime and corruption. Now he's with elections Yeltsin let himself go in a Yeltsin, I suppose I'll vote for Yeltsin, grand manner, guzzling vodka and but I'm afraid Yeltsin's regime may neglecting his medication. First reports simply stifle him, or sack him again, indicated Yeltsin had suffered a mild and nothing will change."I88 stroke.192 (In fact, Yeltsin's condition On the evening of the 19th, there had been quite serious. His hear t was occurred a bizarre affair wherein able to pump only of the bers of the Federal Security Service usual blood flow and doctors stopped arrested two Yeltsin campaign aides and his heart attack only by the injection of interrogated them at gunpoint for eleven a clot-dissolving drug.) 193 hours, before charging them with the YeItsin's camp was in a near attempted robbery of $500,000. frenzy, the main concern being a low Zyuganov painted this as another turnout that would benefit the Com­ example of the sleaze around the presi­ munists, who, with their greater dent, while the press called it an attempt dedication would be a t the ballot boxes to thwart democracy and prevent the en masse. Even with good turnout, final round of voting.189 However, Yeltsin Yeltsin supporters were nervous. and Lebed quickly turned the affair to Deputy Chairman of the All-Russian their political advantage. Aleksandr Movement for the Social Support of Korzhakov, presidential securitychief, the President, Vyacheslav Nikonov, Lev Soskovets, first deputy prime said he expected a turnout of 64 per­ minister and Mikhail Barsukov, head of cent and that Yeltsin would squeak b y the FSB, the successor to the KGB, all lost with 50.8 percent, while Zyugan ov their jobS. 190 Korzhakov had been would receive 46.8 percent.194 Good Yeltsin's most trusted aide and long-time weather was a major concern: younger, drinking companion. But many Russians Yel tsin-inclined voters might take the and western reporters sawall three as day off and head for their dachas. A closer to the Communists than reform­ turnout under sixty percent was ers: The Times asserted that they disliked viewed as potentially diastrous.195 the press, westerners and intellectuals, Some consolation came in the had protectionist views on the economy form of Yavlinsky's backhanded and considered elections as an evil to be endorsement: he urged his supporters avoided ifnecessary.19l Yeltsin was not to vote for Zyganov or "again t cleaning house again, but this time the both." Zhirinovsky's position was opponents of reform were being shown equally lukewarm. On the eve of the the door. final vote, Chemomyrdin said "We are 24 not in the grip of euphoria at all. There Just after the election, while there is a general feeling of concern."196 were reports of some infringement of

But the Communists were also electoral laws, there were no IIgross scared. On 24 June, Zyuganov pro­ violations," according to the Times . The posed a pact between himself and elections were conducted in a fair and Yeltsin that would guarantee that no open fashion. This was largely due to matter who won the runoff vote, the the Communists, who conducted Communists would not be shut out. themselves with laudable honesty at One-third of the new governm n t's the polls. Possessing by far the largest members would be Zyuganov support­ political organization in Russia, they ers, one-third from Yeltsin's people and could easily have used intimidation the final third from other factions and stuffed or destroyed ballots. There represented in the Duma. With Lebed is no indication they did so; by all in Yeltsin's camp, the president had accounts people were free to vote as little reason to take Zyuganov's offer.197 they pleased.201 On the fourth, Finally, Yeltsin won 54 percent to Zyuganov conceded defeat but the Zyuganov's 40 percent, with a 69 Communists were not about to give percent turnout. In the most general up. Zyuganov's top aid, Anatoly tenns, Yeltsin carried most districts in Lukianov, remarked ominously that the Far East and Siberia and his native "even God cannot defeat the idea of Urals region and secured more than 70 communism."202 percent of the vote in Moscow and St. Unfortunately, gross violations Petersburg. Zyuganov carried districts did indeed occur. Russia's electoral law south of Moscow in the Communist limited each candidate to a spending "Red Belt" and in Siberian mining limit of approximately $3 million. districts. Yeltsin's top campaigner According to the Washington Post and Sergei Filatov called it a difficult Peter Reddaway of George Washing­ victory, adding that "We now see that ton University and a veteran Russian our people are not thoughtless ma­ observer, the Yel tsin team violated this chines but are civilized personalities."198 limit by perhaps as much as 17,000 However that may be, a close percent. It is easy to imagine how analysis of Russia's electoral geogra­ loudly any western politician would phy in 1996 revealed a highly complex have protested such a staggering picture. Contrary to expectations, violation of the rules. Yet, Zyuganov voters did not choose a candidate remained largely quiet on this issue based on their socioeconomic status: probably because he felt unsure of his They did not "vote according to their ability of rule a Russian many believed stomachs." One example should on the "edge of financial and economic suffice: Yeltsin swept Ivanovo province crisis." 203 which also had some of Russia's Comparing the 1996 election with highest unemployment rates.199What the previous years' parliamentary seems to have been of most impor­ elections, a few facts stand out. Elec­ tance in 1996 was an urban versus toral turnout was high in both cam­ rural political culture; the former paigns. About 65 percent of the elector­ identified most with the reformist ate turned out in December 1995; the tendencies ofYeltsin and the latter number was slightly higher about six looked more to the Communists and months later. Apathy played little role "traditionalism, especially 'red' tradi­ in the contests. In 1995, the Commu­ tionalism."200 nist faction received 32.2 percent of the 25 vote and in June 1996, they actually attitudes towards the policies of the dropped to 32 percent. In a head-to­ leadership."20?The clear lesson here is head fight with Yeltsin, Zyuganov only that if the leadership fails to respond to managed to increase his total by 8.3 the voters' needs, they will perhaps percent; meanwhile Yeltsin moved abandon the ballot box in favor of from 35.3 percent in June to 53.8 in more traditional, and violent, means of July. And this despite the fact in the Russian political action. interval between presidential voting But a problem remains: what rounds Yeltsin virtually vanished, needs, or simply attitudes, did the Chemenko-like, from public view.204 voters express in the final round? Both But a close look at the political candidates had promised much the landscape in 1995- 96, also revealed the same: increased social spending, law terrible divisions among the "liberal­ and order, some sort of end to the democratic" groups and factions. One Chechen war. But there were differ­ specialist, V. L. Sheinis, put the number ences: Zyuganov stressed Russia's loss of such national groups at seven, and of its "superpower" status and its noted that after the elections they had "humiliation" before the western shown no propensity toward coopera­ capitalists. Apparently only a decided, tion. Indeed, these organizations if sizable minority, cared. More impor­ fought to maintain their independence, tant was history. Zyuganov was unable which can only weaken Russian to shake off the heritage of seventy democracy. Furthermore, Sheinis years of communism, not that he tried believes that the democratic forces very hard to do this. Many people must look beyond Russia's new voted "purely in order to prevent middle class and address the problems Communist revenge."208 faced by Russia's wage earners, who Russians were still not very still constitute a majority and are not enthusiastic about the future after the enthusiastic with simplistic slogans election. A VTsIOM poll asked: "In about "Less government!"205 Nonethe­ What Way the Political Situation less in 1996 these democrats had in Russia Change after the Election?" "nowhere to turn but Yeltsin.''206 The results was that 30 percent From discussions with Russians thought the situation would become and a reading of the contemporary "more quiet and stable;" 19 percent literature, it is clear that Yeltsin won thought it would "become worse;" 39 because of a Widespread fear of com­ percent thought there would be no munism and a desire to stay the course change and 12 percent were unde­ within a fledgling and imperfect cided.209 In other words, a majority democracy. The Institute of Social and believed things would get worse or Political Studies of the Academy of remain the same. And few Russians Sciences conducted a poll in June 1996 were happy with the status quo in that revealed some basic facts. First the 1996. Indeed, one poll found 92 percent vast majority of Russians believed that believed that "ordinary people do not their political leaders, at all levels, did receive a just share of the national not care about the concerns of "ordi­ wealth."210 And in polls from 1994 nary people," but were responsive to through 1996, a solid majority of the desires of "other interests much Russians asserted that "the rich will more powerful." Yet 80 percent voted get richer, and the poor, poorer."211 because it was the only way for these Without question, Yeltsin's ex­ ordinary people to "convey their travagant financial promises were 26 important (and u tterly reckless) and western elections and therefore often he used the power of incumbency to misWlderstood outside Russia. the utmost, but, as noted, Yeltsin had It is also important that Yeltsin's failed to deliver much by the final vote health and his alcoholism, which and Zyuganov also promised a finan­ fascinated the western media, aroused cial cornucopia. But foremost, it must little interest in Russia.217 A retired be kept in mind that the Russians nurse who voted for him remarked endured over seventy years of Com­ that or anyone of us could drop t rule and the memories simply dead tomorrow." An advertising refused to go away. The majority of executive probably spoke for many Russians with whom I spoke recalled Russians when he asserted that flit's the Soviet era with fear and loathing. the court that makes the king."218A Americans usually forget that Stalin Muscovite named Gleb emphasized had to kill literally millions of Russians that: "We are voting today to keep the to impose his grisly vision of socialism Communists from coming back to on the coun try. Russians remember power. We have no choice but to vote this all too well. And Yeltsin quite for Yeltsin. It is irrelevant ifhe is sensibly hammered away mercilessly healthy or sick, alive or dead."2 19 on this point. Zyuganov's ill-advised Few people were wildly enthusi­ response that Stalin made the USSR a astic about either candidate. But as the superpower and maintained "order," election neared, and people realized Simply failed to appeal beyond his they had to make a final and irrevo­ existing core of supporters.212 On the cable choice with enormous, incalcu­ eve of the first vote, a World War n lable consequences for the future, they veteran exclaimed to a group of Com­ rejected communism. A Russian physi­ munists in Perm, "You want cian and professor up a Zyuganov, you want to go back to the feeling I often encountered just before time of the Soviet Gestapo? You must the election: "1 hate Yeltsin and I hate all be mad!"213 The elderly ballerina, Zyuganov. But I'm voting for Yeltsin." Maya Plisetskaia, remarked "1 will When I asked himwhy, he replied that vote for Boris Yeltsin. We cannot allow a return of the Communists was a repetition of a Stalinist, Communist, "unthinkable."220 socialist, or whatever name you call it, Nevertheless, it is an historical regime."214Natalia Saprykina, a stu­ fact that the Russians have never dent who voted for Yeltsin said that experienced democracy, at least for any Zyuganov, "is mostly supported by appreciable length of time. Therefore, former Communists. They're used to it is difficult to argue that most Rus­ living under that regime and they're sians understood fully what they not comfortable now. I don't wish meant when they voted for such a anything bad for them, but it's time for system. An elderly citizen of the us to live."215 The issue was Soviet­ Siberian city of Akademgorodok style 216 versus an emerg­ eloquently addressed the burden of ing whatever its Russia's past and the political backward­ tions. Yeltsin and Zyuganov were ness of its citizens. Speaking with a primarily the symbols of these two western reporter she said: "Its not our alternatives. Their personalities or fault, you knOw. For 70 years we were "charisma" meant little. The Russian slave in a totalitarian regime. It will take election was above all a battle of a long time for us to be able to think for principles, something uncommon in ourselves. Pray for US."221 Nonetheless, 27 in 1996 Russians voted to stay on a ably the Communists' last throe, espe­ course that allowed them to elect their cially if they fail to remodel themselves own leaders: to for themselves. along social-democratic lines, as many Also it seems that the Commu­ east European communists have done.226 nists' historical penchant for religious But it was almost certainly Yeltsin's last persecution hurt them. Zyuganov tried major political fight. Despite his recov­ to persuade people that was all in the ery from triple bypass surgery and the past, but few uncommitted voters were new energy he has shown at least on convinced. Often, over the past several occasions after the election, Yeltsin's years, Russians of all types (even some remarkable political career is over. Itis Communists) have told me that the root too early to tell ifhe will indeed be of their country's continuing crises is a remembered as he man who brought loss of spiritual values. Only under democracy to ,227 Gorbachev, when it was too late, did the Finally, not only democracy but Communists cease their systematic the institution of the state itself is harassment and abuse of religious again in serious trouble in the spring believers. Zyuganov was simply "un­ of 1999. The previous August, the able to attract true believers to his economy took a serious nose dive, the bloc."222 A retired engineer conceivably value of the ruble dropping from 6 to spoke for many older Russians when the dollar to 24 in early May. The he said that the Communists had government's hard currency reserves irreparably damaged what he believed have fallen to about $15 billion. In is one of Russia's great historical other words, Bill Gates' personal strengths: its religious piety.223 fortune is about three times that of the That the election simply took Russian state. With the NATO attack place is of great historical significance. on Yugoslavia, nationalists and com­ Russia's political culture has always munists and just about everyone else emphasized such notions as "he who have indulged in an outburst of anti­ is not with us, is against us" and "if western rage that could quite easily the enemy will not submit, he will be turn into anti-democratic and anti­ annihilated." The Soviet regime fully capitalist movements. It seems that institutionalized this attitude.2.24 But in only the "do nothing and hope" strat­ 1996, rather than annihilation or force, egy of Prime Minister Evgenii Russians had a choice. And the victors Primakov is holding the country to­ and losers accepted the nation's ver­ gether. In the summer of 1990 as dict. perestroika entered its death throes, the It is important to note that the dezhurnaia on my floor of Moscow's typical Zyuganov supporter is fifty­ University Hotel told me "I don't know five years old and lives in the country­ what the future holds; I only know we .225 Russia is now a mostly urban can't go on like this." The same holds society and with life expectancy at about true for Russia just a year before the years and falling, this was prob­ next presidential election in 2000.

28 Notes 1. Yeltsin's election as president in June 1991 was different, having been con­ ducted within the old Soviet system. 2. Christia n Science Monitor, 11 September 1996. An apt comparison is to the "de Gaulle-era French constitution." David Remnick, Resurrection: The Struggle for a New Russia (New York: Random House, 1997),94. It must be noted, however, that local authorities often block or delay implementation of presidential decrees. 3. Timothy J. Colton, "Russians Get Real about Politics," Demokratizatsiya (Sum­ mer 1996): 373. 4. Russia's Election: What Does it Mean? Hearing before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 10 July 1996 (Washington D. c.: Government Printing Office, 1996.) 5. Daniel Treisman, "Why Yeltsin Won," Foreign Affairs, (September/ October 1996): 67-69. 6. Open Media Research Institute, Daily Digest, 19 March 1996. He also denounced the dissolution of the USSR. This now defunct source was an invaluable tool for researchers on the World Wide Web, who lack access to major research libraries. It consisted of information gleaned from a number of Western and Russian sources. Hereafter cited as OMRI. Presently, the online service of Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty fulfills a similar need. 7. The Times, 14 June 1996. 8. The Sunday Times, 31 March 1996. 9.0MRI, 2 May 1996. A few days later in Yaroslavl', Yeltsin blamed local authori­ ties and enterprise directors for the failure to pay salaries on time. OMRI, 6 May 1996. 10. OMRI, 3 May 1996. 11. OMRI, 8 May 1996. 12. The Times, 28 June 1996. 13. The Sunday Times, 23 June 1996. 14. The Sunday Times, 23 June 1996. 15. The Communists and their allies created quite a stir in March when they formally denounced the Belovezhaskaia agreements of December 1991 that effec­ tively dissolved the USSR. 16. Cited in Alessandra Stanley, "The Hacks are Back," New York Times Magazine, 26 May 1996. Historians are still calculating the total "sacrifices" involved in the Soviet experiment; but the numbers of dead are in the tens of millions. 17. Alexander Yanov, "The Puzzles Of Patriotic Communism: Gennadii Zyuganov, The Russian Milosevic?" Boston University, Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and Policy, Publication Series Number 12, 1996, . 18. Richard Pipes, "Russia Finally Buys Freedom," The Sunday Times , 30 March 1997. 19. Angela Stent and Lilia Shevtsova, "Russia's Election: No Turning Back," 29 Foreign Policy, (Summer, 1996): 92. 20. In fact, "Communists were rare birds in the countryside of the 1920s." Sheila Fitzpatrick, Stalin's Peasants, (New York, 1994), 26. 21. Of the 450 seats in the Duma, the Communists won 157, Our Home is Russia 54, the Liberal Democrats 51, Yabloko 45 and the Congress of Russian Communi­ ties, 5. Minton F. Goldman, Russia, the Euras ian Republics and CentrallEastern Europe, 6th ed. (Guilford, Connecticut, 1996),72. 22. OMRI, 18 March 1996. 23. OMRI, 4 April 1996. 24. On 5 ovember 1996, The New York Times reported that the Moscow daily murder rate was almost twice that of New York. The occasion was the murder of an American businessman, who took 12 machine gun slugs in the back outside the Radisson-Slavianskaia. 25. Stephen White, Current History, October, 1993. Probably Zhirinovsky's anti­ Semitism hurt him in the summer elections: an April poll by the American Jewish Committee found that only about 16 per cent of Russians harbor anti-Semitic feelings. Morning Edition, National Public Radio, 16 April 1996. 26. St. Petersburg Press, 5- 11 March 1996. In the middle of the campaign this newspaper changed its title to the St. Petersburg Times. Available online, it is a great source for current events. 27. OMRI, 29 April 1996. 28. Segodnia, 18 Ap ril 1996. Source was a VTsIOM poll conducted from 4-10 April. 29. The Sunday Times, 18 February 1996. 30. The Christian Science Monitor, 1 December 1995. 31. St. Petersburg Press, 1 January-5 February 1996. 32. Interview with Vasilii Aksyonov, NPR, "All Things Considered," 19 September 1996. 33. Segodn ia, 16 February 1996. 34. Segodnia, 28 February 1996. 35. OMRI, 22 March 1996. 36. A VTsIOM poll in May found that only about 5 percent of Russians were concerned about a "lack of foodstuffs and basic commodities." Segodnia, 15 May 1996. 37. Pravda, 9 July 1996. 38. OMRI, 10 April 1996. 39. Nezavisimaia gazeta, 17 February 1996. Moscow Metro cars, for example, were liberally plastered with advertisement for these "investment" companies. Zyuganov tirelessly attacked such fraudulent operations but to no apparent avail. See for example, Pravda Rossii, 12 January 1996. This was the weekly supplement to Pravda. 40. OMRI, 23 Apri11996.

30 41. Segodnia, 20 April 1996. 42. The Sunday Times, 3 March 1996. 43. St. Petersburg Press, 30 January- 2 February 1996. 44. Kommersant-Daily, 6 February 1996. 45.0MRI, 12 February 1996. Despite Yeltsin's promises, Russia's General Confed­ eration of Trade Unions reported in late September that wage arrears had actually increased to $9 billion for the first eight month of 1996. Moreover, unemployment totaled 8 million, or six percent of the employment-age population. Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 30 September 1996. 46. The Sunday Times, 9 June 1996. 47. Segodnia, 23 February 1996. 48. OMRI, 20 April 1996. 49. Avraham Shama, "Inside Russia's True Economy," Foreign Policy, (Summer 1996): 111-127. 50. Nezavisimaia gazeta, 6 June 1996. 51. Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 30 September 1996. 52. Izvestiia, 24 January 1996. 53. Nezavisimaia gazeta, 24 January 1996. 54. New York Times, 13 February 1996. 55. Goldman, Russia, p. 75. 56. New York Times, 11 September 1996. Russia now has a smaller state sector than (EU and OECD member) Italy. St. Petersburg Press, 23-29 January 1996. 57. St Petersburg Press, 16- 22 April 1996. 58. Kommersan t- Daily, 9 April 1996. 59. Rossiskaia gazeta, 24 February 1996. 60. OMRI, 14 February 1996. 61. OMR1, 9 April 1996; Ibid., 8 July 1996. 62. Treisman, "How Yeltsin Won," p.69. 63. Rossiiskie vesti, 29 March 1996. 64. Jeremy Bransten estimated that 30,000 died in the Chechen war. May 28, RFE / RL Online Report. On 3 September, Russia's Security Minister, Aleksandr Lebed, reported that 80,000 had perished in Chechnya. OMRI, 4 September 1996. 65. The Sunday Times, 14 April 1996. 66. For an excellent, concise portrait of Lebed see S. Frederick Starr"A Russian Politician to Reckon With" in The Christian Science Mon itor, 15 December 1995. 67. John M. Thompson, A Vis ion Unfulfilled: Russia and the Soviet Union in the Twentieth Century (Lexington, Massachusetts, 1996), 337. 68. Jack F. Matlock, Jr., Autopsy on an Empire: The American Ambassador 's Account of the Collapse of the Soviet Un ion (New York, 1995), 23.

31 69. Bill Keller, who covered Russia from 1986 to 1991 observed that "the Chechens exploited their position within Russia to raise the money for their war of inde­ pendence. This included siphoning off oil, swindling the Russian state in a series of bank frauds, transforming Grozny into a great black-market emporium and serving as home base for Moscow's toughest network of gangsters." The New York Times book review of Chechnya: Calamity in the Caucasus, by Carlotta Gall and Thomas de Waal. 70. Goldman, Russia, the Eurasian Republics, and Central/Eastern Europe, 6th ed., p. 70; 84-85. 71. OMRI, 4 March 1996. 72. OMRI, 5 March 1996. 73. Segodnia, 9 April 1996. Sound reasons existed for Yeltsin's attitude about the necessity of ending the war if he was to win an extremely close race. In late 1995, when Ye1tsin's poll numbers were in the cellar, the All-Russia Center for Public Opinion Research found that fifteen percent of Russians said they"could sup­ port" Yeltsin if he "stopped the fighting in Chechnya." Yuri Levada, "Uneasy Lies the Head that Wears the Crown," New Times, March 1996: 4-5. In mid-April, Natalia Zorkaia of VTsIOM attributed much of Yeltsin's problems to his failure to find a peace settlement. Moscow Tribune, 17 April 1996. In May, voters in one poll placed "ending the Chechen war" as the top national priority. Segodnia, 15 May 1996. The p aper's source was a VTsIOM poll. 74. The Times, 1-2 April 1996. 75. Michael Kramer, "The People Choose," Time, 27 May 1996. 76. Segodnia, 24 Apri1 1996. 77. Komsomolskaia pravda, 10 April 1996. 78. ational News Service, Moscow, d. Web site: < nns.ru/ e-elects / e-president/ e-oprosI4.html>. 79. OMRI, 27 March 1996. 80. Segodnia, 8 February 1996. 81.Christian Science Monitor, 30 May 1996. 82. Segodnia, 18 April 1996. The newspaper's source was a VTsIOM poll. 83. New York Times, 20 September 1996. 4. Izvestiia, 3 February 1996. 85. OMRI, 6 March 1996. 86. PBS News Hour, 19 April 1996. 87. The Times, 20 April 1996. Clinton's NATO policy greatly accelerated an im­ proved Sino-Russian relationship as seen in Yeltsin's visit to China in late April wherein he and Chinese leaders implicitly com plained of America's "attempt to monopolize international affairs" and China denounced the eastward expansion of NATO. The two countries also signed substantive economic and military agreements. OMRI, 25 April 1996. 88. Michael Kramer, "The People Choose," Time, 27 May 1996.

32 89. Speaking before the Council of Europe, Primakov y said that Moscow would like to see the council as the "cornerstone" of a new all- European security system "without dividing lines or blocs." OMRI, 5 May 1996. 90. Ne:w Yo rk Times, 7 April 1996. As of April 1999, this measure existed, for the most part, only on paper. 91. New Yo rk Times, 7 April 1996. 92. OMRI, 28 March 1996. 93. Treisman, "Why Yeltsin Won," p .66. 94. OMRI, 22 March 1996. 95. Nezavisimaia gazeta, 17 May 1996; OMRI, 29 May 1996. 96. Segodnia, 9 April 1996. 97. Chicago Tribune, 18 April 1996. 98. The Sunday Times, 31 March 1996. 99. OMRI, 22 April 1996. 100. Moskovskii komsomolets, 12 April 1996. 101. National News Service, Moscow, Internet Service, "Campaign '96," Nd. This invaluable source can be accessed on the web at: . 102. Moskovskie novosti, 28 April- 5 May. 103. Rossiiskie vesti, 26 April 1996. 104. OMRI, 29 April 1996. 105. Nezavisimaia gazeta, 26 April 1996. 106. OMRI, 23 April 1996. 107. OMRI, 15 May 1996. 108. OMRI, 18 March 1996. 109. Christian Science Monitor, 23 April 1996. 110. Chicago Tribune, 18 April 1996. For more details on Zyuganov's anti-western attitudes, see his book, I Believe In Russia. 111. The Moscow Times, 25 May 1996. 112. The Sunday Times, 31 March 1996. 113. OMRI, 17 May 1996. 114. OMRI, 11 June 1996. 115. The Moscow News, 25 May 1996. Italics added. In his recent biography of Stalin, the late Dmitrii Volkogonov asserts that 1.75 million were officially ex­ ecuted in 1937- 38 alone. 116. From Zyuganov's, Beyond the Horizon, cited by Stanley, "The Hacks are Back," p . 45. 117. Stanley, "The Hacks are Back," p. 46. 118. Izvestiia, 13 April 1996. 33 119. The New York Tim es, S April 1996; Izvestiia, 13 April 1996; Zavtra, 1996, 1:1- 3. Zavtra is a sharply anti-Yeltsin weekly. 120. The New York Times, S April 1996. 121. In late May, Zyuganov elaborated more bluntly on his economic plans. He stated that the "state must take care of all forms of ownership useful to Russia." The Times, 15 June 1996. 122. St. Petersburg Times, 26 May- l June. This information came from a commen­ tary by Sergei Markov, a senior associate at the Moscow Carnegie Center. Nezavisimaia gazeta ran a similar article on 12 May. 123. Sovetskaia Rossiia, 28 May 1996. 124. Nezavisimaia gazeta, 31 May 1996. 125 . The Times, 14 June 1996. Minton Goldman agrees that Zyuganov's vague and negative campaign limited his voter appeal. Goldman, Russia, p. 74. 126. Komsomolskaia pravda, 16 May 1996. 127. Pravda Rossii, 18 January 1996. This was the weekly supplement to Pravda. 128. Boris Kagarlitskii, "0 prichinakh porazheniia ," Svobodnaia mysl' 1996, 9: 3. Kagarlitski is political scientist with the Russian Academy of Sciences. 129. Nezavisimaia gazeta, 17 April 1996. 130. The Sunday Times, 31 March 1996. 131. OMRI, 17 May 1996. 132. OMRI, 17 May 1996. 133. Moskovskii kornsomolets, 12 May 1996.

134. Treisman, "Why Yeltsin Won,II p.67. 135. OMRI, 17 May 1996. 136. OMRl, 22 May 1996. 137. OMRI, 27 May 1996. Well might Yeltsin address the issue of wage arrears: 42 percen t of Russians rated it one of their main complaints against the government. Segodnia, 15 May 1996. The source was a VTsIOM poll. 138. Regarding Communist promises for a plethora of new spending programs, the majority of journalists were merciless in asking how they would be funded. For example, see the extensive analysis and condemnation of the Communist economic program in Kommersant-Daily, 13 April 1996. 139. OMRI, 9 May 1996 . 140. Christian Science Monito r, 26 April 1996. 141. The Times, 6 June 1996. 142. Nezavisimaia gazeta, 7 June 1996. 143. Time, 27 May 1996. 144. St. Petersburg Times, 17 July 1996. 145. Ron Synovitz, 1996 In Review: Election Roundup II - Russia, Romania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. ND.

34 146. OMRl, 10 April 1996. 147. Christian Science Monitor, 26 April 1996. Pravda has not fared well since the election: In late May, its Greek owners decided to turn the newspaper into a tabloid. They said the paper consistently lost money, its staff were drunks, and it printed nothing of interest. The Times, 31 July 1996. 148. Zyuganov's platform specifically called for "public control of state radio and television." Kommersant Daily, 16 February 1996. 149. The Times, 2 May 1996. 150. Christian Science Monitor, 26 April 1996. 151. Christian Science Monitor, 26 April 1996; Izvestiia, 12 April 1996. 152. The Times, 1 May 1996. 153. Izvestiia, 14 May 1996. 154. St. Petersburg Times, 26 May- 1 June 1996. 155. Segodnia, 7 May 1996. 156. St. Petersburg Times, 10-16 June 1996. 157. St. Petersburg Times, Ibid. 158. St. Petersburg Times, Ibid. 159. St. Petersburg Times, Ibid. 160. St. Petersburg Times, Ibid. 161. Rossiiskie vesti, 1 June 1996. 162. The Times, 1 June 1996. 163. St. Petersburg Times, 16-23 June 1996; OMRI, 10 June 1996. 164. Segodnia, 15 May 1996; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Daily Report, Russia, 28 May 1996. 165. Segodnia, 28-29 May 1996. 166. lzvestiia, 29 May 1996. 167. The Times, 11 June 1996. 168.The soldiers voted as they did on orders from their superiors, with Defense Minister Grachev leading the way in bringing the military in line. The Sunday Times, 2 June 1996. It would be Grachev's last service to Yeltsin, who fired him after the June 16 vote. Part of the explanation for Yeltsin's success with the sol­ diers is that in April Grachev denied a request from Communist Party campaign organizer Valentin Kuptsov to allow Zyuganov to meet with servicemen. 169. The Sunday Times, 9 June 1996. 170. Kommersant-Daily, 21 May 1996. 171. The Times, 10 June 1996. 172.The Times, 13 June 1996. 173. Segodnia, 14 June 1996. 174. Segodnia, 13 June 1996.

35 175. V. O. Rukavishnikov, T. P. Rukavishnikova, A. D. Zolotykh, and Iu. Iu. Shestakov, "v chern edino 'raskolotoe obshchestov'?", Sotsiologicheskii issledovanii, 1997,6: 89. 176. Interview with Aleksei Salmin, President of the Russian Social-Political Center. Nd. This interview occurred between the first and second votes. . 177. .This is from the Russian language web site of the Russian ational News Service. Hereafter cited as NNS after the web site citation. 178. "Results of Presidential Elections-1 Round," National News Service, Moscow, Internet Service, nd. 179. Trud, 4 June 1996. 180. Michael McFaul, Russia's 1996 Presidential Election: The End ofPolarized Politics (Stanford, California: Hoover Institution Press, 1997),50-51. Mcfaul gives no source for this specific information. His prediction that 1996 meant the end of polarized politics has not proven true. 181. The Sunday Times, 23 June 1996. 182. e Times, 17 June 1996. 183. The Sunday Times, 23 June 1996. 184. St. Petersburg Press. Petersburg Times, 26 May- 1 June 1996.Yavlinsky received 6 percent of the vote. 185. Christian Science Monitor, 19 June 1996. 186. The Times, 28 June 1996. 187. . NNS. 188. The Times, 28 June 1996. 189. The Sunday Times, 23 June 1996. 190. Izvestiia, 21 June 1996. 191. Besides the Times account of the events of 19 June, the reader can consult the Christian Science Monitor, 24 June 1996. 192. The Sunday Times, 6 July 1996. Subsequently, the Kremlin admitted Yeltsin had suffered a mild heart attack. 193. The New York Times, 13 December 1996. 194. OMRI, 26 June 1996. 195. Christian Science Monitor, 28 June 1996. 196. Christian Science Monitor, 2 July 1996. 197. Christian Science Monitor, 25 June 1996. 198.Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 4 July 1996. 199. Andrei Maximov, ed. Maximov's Companion to the 1996 Russian Presidential Elections (Moscow: Maximov Publications, 1997), 200; A. Kolosov and R. F. Turovskii, "Elektoral'naia karta sovremennoi Rossii: Genizis, struktura i evoliutsiia," Polis, (1996) 4: 41. 36 200. Kolosov and Turovskii, "Elektoral'naia karta sovremennoi Rossii: Genezis, struktura ii evoliutsiia," Polis, (1996) 4: 42. 201. At a Moscow press conference on 4 July, international election observers from the OSCE, the Council of Europe, and the European Parliament, declared that the 3 July runoff had been "free, unbiased, and fair," Russian and Western agencies reported. "Russian Presidential Elections, '96," OMRI, 4 July. 202. St. Petersburg Press. Petersburg Times, July 8-17, 1996 203. Peter Reddaway's Testimony before the U. S. House Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 10 July 1996. Some of Zyuganov's own supporters doubted that he really wanted to take power because he "would not know what to do with it." Moskovskii komsomolets, 25 July 1996. 204. V. L. Sheinis, "Proiden li istoricheskii rubezh?" Polis, January 1997: 96. Sheinis is a economist and member of Yabloko's Duma faction. 205. Sheinis, " 95. 206. John Lloyd, "Nowhere to Turn but Yeltsin," Demokratizatsiya, (1996) 4:325­ 329. 207. V. O. Rukavishnikov, et al, "V chern edino 'raskolotoe obshchestov'?", Sotsiologicheskii issledovanii, (1997) 6: 90. 208. Kommersant-Daily, 1 March 1996. 209. Moskovsky Komsomolets, 18 July 1996. 210. V. O. Rukavishnikov, et al, chern edino 'raskolotoe obshchestov'?", Sotsiologicheskii issledovanii, (1997) 6: 91. 211. "Monitoring obshchestvennogo Sotsiologicheskii Iss ledovanie, (1997) 1:153. 212. Even Pravda conceded this point in its 9 July issue. 213. Ibid., 1 June 1996. 214. The Times, 13 June 1996. 215. Christian Science Monitor, 28 June 1996. 216. By this term I mean foremost, a political dictatorship directing a command economy through force and threats. Or even better is Academician Tatiana Zaslavskaia's blunt statement that the "Soviet system was profoundly criminal." Trud, 1 March 1996. 217. In 1994, a Russian university professor, when telling me of Yeltsin's inability to sober up sufficiently to meet the Irish prime minister some months earlier, was unable to contain his laughter at what western observers saw as a major blunder. 218. New York Times, 4 July 1996. 219. The Times, 4 July 1996. Italics added. 220.Interview with Dr. Anatoly Sokolovsky, Tver, Russia, 15 May 1996. 221. The Sunday Times, 9 June 1996. 222. Pravda, 9 July 1996.

37 223. Interview with Albert A. Tsvetkov, Moscow, 2 June 1996. Mr. Tsvetkov is a retired military engineer. 224. I. G. Chaikovskaia, "Sovremennye politicheskie protsessy (Aktual'nye problemy I obshchie tendentsii), Vestnik Nauchnoi Informatsii, (1997), 6:7- 8. 225. Even among Russians over-55 Zyuganov's margin of victory was not huge: 41 percent to 34 percent. Segodnia, 26 July 1996. 226. Writing in 6 October 1997 The Washington Post, Fred Hiatt noted that Zyuganov's party "hasn't followed its Eastern European cousins into social­ democratic respectability...." 227. As of April 1999, Russian democracy was on the ropes. Following the August collapse of the ruble, Yeltsin appointed a government headed by Evgenii Primakov with a large number of Soviet-era bureaucrats. However, Communist calls for a general strike in October 1998 failed and th re is little evidence that Russians desire a return of the Soviet system.

38