A Review of Natural Disturbances to Inform Implementation of Ecological Forestry in Nova Scotia, Canada
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Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a Partnership Between Research and Operations
Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a partnership between research and operations J.D. Abraham Director General Weather and Environmental Monitoring Meteorological Service of Canada IWET IV May 24 2012 Creation and evolution of the CHC: 25th Anniversary September 25-28, 1985 – Hurricane Gloria affected the Maritime provinces. Canadians had to rely largely on U.S. forecasts concerning this intense storm. When the storm's effects on Canada were much less than predicted, there was considerable confusion in the media and the general public. This eventually lead to the creation of the CHC. 1980’s CNN – Growth in cable news and live coverage August 31, 1987 – Environment Canada established hurricane centres on each coast: at the then Maritimes Weather Centre (Bedford, N.S.), and at the then Pacific Weather Centre (Vancouver, B.C.). 2000 – The Canadian Hurricane Centre was established in Dartmouth, N.S., to serve all of Canada. Canadian Hurricane Centre Ops 1987: First hurricane forecasting specialists were identified: Jim Abraham, Peter Bowyer, Al MacAfee, Ken MacDonald, John Merrick CHC issues first bulletins on Hurricane Emily 1989: First Environment Canada meteorologist attends the WMO-NHC Hurricane Workshop 1991: First hurricane-forecasting training delivered in Canada by a U.S. National Hurricane Centre specialist (Hal Gerrish) 1994: Development and implementation of hurricane workstation software that prepares tracks and bulletins (Al MacAfee) TC (not ET) Training 4 ET: a collaborative R&D and forecaster challenge 1989: Tropical Storm Hugo -
An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology Dissertations. No. 1734 An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting by Chandan Roy Department of Computer and Information Science Linköping University SE-581 83 Linköping, Sweden Linköping 2016 Cover image: Hurricane Isabel (2003), NASA, image in public domain. Copyright © 2016 Chandan Roy ISBN: 978-91-7685-854-7 ISSN 0345-7524 Printed by LiU Tryck, Linköping 2015 URL: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-123198 ii Abstract Introduction: Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict considerable damage to life and property every year. A major problem is that residents often hesitate to follow evacuation orders when the early warning messages are perceived as inaccurate or uninformative. The root problem is that providing accurate early forecasts can be difficult, especially in countries with less economic and technical means. Aim: The aim of the thesis is to investigate how cyclone early warning systems can be technically improved. This means, first, identifying problems associated with the current cyclone early warning systems, and second, investigating if biologically based Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are feasible to solve some of the identified problems. Method: First, for evaluating the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems, Bangladesh was selected as study area, where a questionnaire survey and an in-depth interview were administered. Second, a review of currently operational TC track forecasting techniques was conducted to gain a better understanding of various techniques’ prediction performance, data requirements, and computational resource requirements. Third, a technique using biologically based ANNs was developed to produce TC track and intensity forecasts. -
Tyringham MA (Town Review 03-17-2021)
Town of Tyringham Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Tyringham, Massachusetts Prepared by: GZA GeoEnvironmental, Inc. Prepared For: Local Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Update The Town of Tyringham, Massachuses Prepared in accordance with the requirements presented in the FEMA Local Mitigation Plan Review Guide and the Local Mitigation Handbook March 10, 2021 Photo credit: Town of Tyringham (https://www.tyringham-ma.gov/) GZA GeoEnvironmental, Inc. Table of Contents Quick Plan Reference Guide Understanding Natural Hazard Risk p.3 Secon 1: Introducon P.5 Secon 2: Planning Process p.8 Secon 3: Community Profile Overview p.12 Secon 4: Natural Hazard Risk Profile P.19 Secon 5: Natural Hazard Migaon Strategies P.33 Secon 6: Regional and Intercommunity Consideraons P.35 Secon 7: Plan Adopon and Implementaon Aachments: 1: Community Profile Details 2: Natural Hazards 3: Natural Hazard Risk 4: FEMA HAZUS-MH Simulaon Results 5. Potenal State and Federal Funding Sources 6: Public Review Documentaon 7: References and Resources 8: Key Contacts Town of Tyringham Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan INSERT IMAGE OF THE TOWN’S RESOLUTION ADOPTING THE HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN Tyringham Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan GZA Town of Tyringham Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan INSERT IMAGE OF FEMA’S APPROVAL LETTER Tyringham Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan GZA Town of Tyringham Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan QUICK PLAN REFERENCE GUIDE The following provides a Quick Reference Guide to the Town of Tyringham Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Update: STEP 1: UNDERSTAND THE PLANNING PROCESS Section 2 - Planning Process describes the planning process and identifies the members of the Local Planning Team (LPT) that participated in the Plan develop- ment. -
Killingworth, Connecticut Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan
Killingworth, Connecticut Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan Prepared for: Killingworth Board of Selectmen Adopted by: Town of Killingworth, Connecticut ______, 2013 Prepared by: Lower Connecticut River Valley Council of Governments 145 Dennison Rd. Essex, CT 06426 (860) 581-8554 www.rivercog.org Killingworth, CT On the Cover Photo 1: Road Washout on Route 80 after 1982 Flooding Source: Middletown Press Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan 2 Killingworth, CT TABLE OF CONTENTS I. PLANNING PROCESS 7 A. Authority (ELEMENT C) 7 B. Purpose & Benefits (ELEMENT 7 C. Plan Development (ELEMENTS A & D) 7 1. Funding & Technical Assistance (F) 8 2. Plan Preparation (A.1 & D.2) 9 3. Agency Comment (A.2) 9 4. Public Involvement (A.3) 10 5. Incorporation of Existing Resource Materials (A.4) 10 D. Plan Adoption (ELEMENT E) 11 E. Plan Implementation (ELEMENT D) 11 1. Priorities 11 2. Responsibilities 11 3. Resources (C.6) 11 F. Plan Maintenance (ELEMENT A) 13 1. Maintenance Method (A.5) 13 2. Maintenance Update Schedule (A.6) 14 Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan 3 Killingworth, CT II. RISK ASSESSMENT & HAZARD IDENTIFICATION 17 A. The Town & the Vulnerability of its Resources (ELEMENT B) 17 1. Geography and Land Use Patterns 17 2. Demographics and Critical Facilities 19 3. Economics and Cultural Resources 25 4. The Environment and Ecological Resources 26 B. Natural Hazards (ELEMENTS B & C) 29 1. Flooding (B.1, B.2, B.3, B.4 and C.2) 32 2. Dam Failure (B.1, B.2, B.3, B.4 and C.2) 41 3. High Wind & Tornado (B.1, B.2, B.3, B.4 and C.3) 45 4. -
Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats
8786 ReportScience Title and the Storms: the USGS Response to the Hurricanes of 2005 Chapter Five: Landscape5 Changes The hurricanes of 2005 greatly changed the landscape of the Gulf Coast. The following articles document the initial damage assessment from coastal Alabama to Texas; the change of 217 mi2 of coastal Louisiana to water after Katrina and Rita; estuarine damage to barrier islands of the central Gulf Coast, especially Dauphin Island, Ala., and the Chandeleur Islands, La.; erosion of beaches of western Louisiana after Rita; and the damages and loss of floodplain forest of the Pearl River Basin. Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats By Thomas C. Michot, Christopher J. Wells, and Paul C. Chadwick Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southeast Louisiana on August 29, 2005, and Hurricane Rita made landfall in southwest Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flew aerial surveys to assess damages to natural resources and to lands owned and managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Flights were made on eight dates from August Introduction 27 through October 4, including one pre-Katrina, three post-Katrina, The USGS National Wetlands and four post-Rita surveys. The Research Center (NWRC) has a geographic area surveyed history of conducting aerial rapid- extended from Galveston, response surveys to assess Tex., to Gulf Shores, hurricane damages along the Ala., and from the Gulf coastal areas of the Gulf of of Mexico shoreline Mexico and Caribbean inland 5–75 mi Sea. Posthurricane (8–121 km). -
Press Releases
About Us > Press Releases FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 6, 2012 CONTACT: Marc La Vorgna / Lauren Passalacqua (Mayor's Office) - (212) 788-2958 Rachaele Raynoff (City Planning) - (212) 720-3471 MAYOR BLOOMBERG DELIVERS ADDRESS ON SHAPING NEW YORK CITY’S FUTURE AFTER HURRICANE SANDY The following are Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s remarks as delivered this morning at the New York Marriott Downtown: “Well good morning, everyone. Mr. Vice President, thank you. Your leadership and vision has helped inspire action on climate change, not just here in the United States, but by cities and countries and consumers around the world. “No one, I think, has done more to raise the public consciousness of this issue or to press for change on an international stage. And I want to thank you for coming here and lending your voice to our efforts to prepare New York City for the new realities that we face. “I do remember when we were up on a roof. For those of you that don’t realize what we’re talking about, if you paint your roofs white it reflects the sun, and in a five-story building it reduces the total energy needs of that building – because in the summer it costs a lot to air condition – by something like a quarter. “It is an amazing thing, and the next time you take off from LaGuardia or from Kennedy, if you get lucky and the plane banks over New York City you’ll be shocked at the percentage of roofs that today are white. It’s got to be something north of 80 percent. -
The Great Maritimes Blizzard of February 18-19, 2004
The Great Maritimes Blizzard of February 18-19, 2004 Chris Fogarty Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia Introduction On 18 February 2004 an intense low pressure system formed well south of Nova Scotia as cold air from eastern North America clashed with the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The storm moved northeastward passing south of Nova Scotia and over Sable Island. A vast area of heavy snow and high winds swept across Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and southeast New Brunswick bringing blizzard conditions and record snowfalls. Widespread amounts of 60 to 90 cm (24 to 36 inches, 2 to 3 feet) were experienced bringing Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island to a standstill. States of emergency were put into effect across these provinces in order for emergency officials to perform their duties and clean up the mammoth snowfall. It took days for many urban streets and highways to be cleared. 1. The Synoptic Situation A storm track map is shown in Fig. 1 with a time series of minimum sea level pressure in the inset based on analyses at the Maritimes Weather Centre in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The storm formed approximately 200 km southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC at 00 UTC 18 February. It then moved to the northeast at 35-40 km/h, attaining its lowest sea level pressure of 959 mb at 18 UTC 19 February 250 km southeast of Halifax, NS (Fig. 2). Fig. 1. Storm track and time series of minimum sea level pressure. 1 Fig. 2. Sea level pressure analysis of the storm at maximum intensity. -
Town of Kent Hazard Mitigation Plan
TOWN OF KENT HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN DECEMBER 2014 MMI #3843-04 Prepared for the: TOWN OF KENT, CONNECTICUT Kent Town Hall 41 Kent Green Boulevard Kent, Connecticut (860) 927-3433 www.townofkentct.com Prepared by: MILONE & MACBROOM, INC. 99 Realty Drive Cheshire, Connecticut 06410 (203) 271-1773 www.miloneandmacbroom.com The preparation of this report has been financed in part through funds provided by the Connecticut Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection (DESPP) Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security (DEMHS) under a grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The contents of this report reflect the views of the Town of Kent and do not necessarily reflect the official views of DEMHS. The report does not constitute a specification or regulation. Copyright 2014 Milone & MacBroom, Inc. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS & CONTACT INFORMATION This plan was prepared under the direction of the Town of Kent. The following individual should be contacted with questions or comments regarding the plan: Mr. Bruce Adams First Selectman Town of Kent 41 Kent Green Boulevard Kent, CT 06757 (860) 927-4627 This Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan could not have been completed without the time and dedication of the following individuals at the local level: Mr. Rick Osborne, Highway Department Mr. Bruce Adams, First Selectman The consulting firm of Milone & MacBroom, Inc. (MMI) prepared the subject plan. The following individuals at MMI may be contacted prior to plan adoption with questions or comments using the contact information on the title page or the electronic mail addresses below: Mr. David Murphy, P.E., CFM Associate, Water Resources [email protected] Copyright 2014 Milone & MacBroom, Inc. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
DYNAMIC COASTS in a CHANGING CLIMATE Lead Authors: David E
CHAPTER 2: DYNAMIC COASTS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Lead Authors: David E. Atkinson (University of Victoria), Donald L. Forbes (Natural Resources Canada) and Thomas S. James (Natural Resources Canada) Contributing Authors: Nicole J. Couture (Natural Resources Canada) and Gavin K. Manson (Natural Resources Canada) Recommended Citation: Atkinson, D.E., Forbes, D.L. and James, T.S. (2016): Dynamic coasts in a changing climate; in Canada’s Marine Coasts in a Changing Climate, (ed.) D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, T.S. James and C.S.L. Mercer Clarke; Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, p. 27-68. Chapter 2 | DYNAMIC COASTS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 27 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 29 4.3 PROJECTIONS OF SEA-LEVEL CHANGE IN CANADA 51 2 COASTAL VARIABILITY 29 4.3.1 PROJECTIONS OF RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL CHANGE 51 2.1 GEOLOGICAL SETTING 30 4.3.2 EXTREME WATER LEVELS 52 2.2 COASTAL PROCESSES 33 4.3.3 SEA-LEVEL PROJECTIONS 2.2.1 EROSION AND SHORELINE RETREAT 35 BEYOND 2100 54 2.2.2 CONTROLS ON RATES OF COASTAL CHANGE 36 5 COASTAL RESPONSE TO SEA-LEVEL RISE 3 CHANGING CLIMATE 38 AND CLIMATE CHANGE 54 3.1 DRIVERS OF CHANGE 38 5.1 PHYSICAL RESPONSE 54 3.2 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 40 5.2 ECOLOGICAL RESPONSE 57 3.3 CLIMATE DETERMINANTS 41 5.2.1 COASTAL SQUEEZE 57 3.4 TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS 42 5.2.2 COASTAL DUNES 57 3.4.1 TRENDS 42 5.2.3 COASTAL WETLANDS, TIDAL FLATS AND SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS 59 3.4.2 PROJECTIONS 43 3.5 STORMS AND SEA ICE 43 5.3 VISUALIZATION OF COASTAL FLOODING 60 3.5.1 STORMS 43 3.5.2 SEA ICE 44 6 SUMMARY AND SYNTHESIS 60 3.5.3 CHANGES IN STORM -
Planning for Sea-Level Rise in Halifax Harbour Adaptation Measures Can Be Incrementally Adjusted As New Information Becomes Available
i t y i fa x a l P a l h ional Munici eg r Photo courtesy of Planning for sea-level rise in halifax harbour Adaptation measures can be incrementally adjusted as new information becomes available Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM), the capital of Nova Scotia, is Atlantic Canada’s largest city. The municipality covers more than 5500 km2 and has a population of more than 390 000. Halifax Harbour, at the heart of HRM, is a major seaport with significant industrial, military and municipal infrastructure. Rising sea level, along with increased storm intensity and associated waves and storm surges, presents risks to damaging storms residents, property and infrastructure in coastal areas of In recent years, Halifax has experienced frequent extreme HRM. Following extreme weather events in September weather, including several major storms that caused 2003 and February 2004, HRM launched ClimateSMART extensive erosion and flood damage. Most notable was (Sustainable Mitigation & Adaptation Risk Toolkit) to help Hurricane Juan in September 2003, a “once-in-a-century” mainstream climate change mitigation and adaptation into event. This Category 2 hurricane made landfall just west municipal planning and decision making. ClimateSMART of Halifax and tracked across central Nova Scotia and initiated discussion of climate change and spurred further Prince Edward Island, leaving a trail of damage to property, adaptation action. infrastructure and the environment (cost estimated at In August 2006, the HRM Council adopted the Regional $200 million). A few months later, in February 2004, the Municipal Planning Strategy, an integrated land use severe winter blizzard that became known as “White Juan” planning guide for future development.