Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a Partnership Between Research and Operations

Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a partnership between research and operations

J.D. Abraham Director General Weather and Environmental Monitoring Meteorological Service of Canada

IWET IV May 24 2012 Creation and evolution of the CHC: 25th Anniversary September 25-28, 1985 – Hurricane Gloria affected the Maritime provinces. Canadians had to rely largely on U.S. forecasts concerning this intense storm. When the storm's effects on Canada were much less than predicted, there was considerable confusion in the media and the general public. This eventually lead to the creation of the CHC. 1980’s CNN – Growth in cable news and live coverage August 31, 1987 – Environment Canada established hurricane centres on each coast: at the then Maritimes Weather Centre (Bedford, N.S.), and at the then Pacific Weather Centre (Vancouver, B.C.). 2000 – The Canadian Hurricane Centre was established in Dartmouth, N.S., to serve all of Canada.

Canadian Hurricane Centre Ops

1987: First hurricane forecasting specialists were identified: Jim Abraham, Peter Bowyer, Al MacAfee, Ken MacDonald, John Merrick CHC issues first bulletins on Hurricane Emily

1989: First Environment Canada meteorologist attends the WMO-NHC Hurricane Workshop

1991: First hurricane-forecasting training delivered in Canada by a U.S. National Hurricane Centre specialist (Hal Gerrish)

1994: Development and implementation of hurricane workstation software that prepares tracks and bulletins (Al MacAfee)

TC (not ET) Training

4 ET: a collaborative R&D and forecaster challenge 1989: Tropical Storm Hugo hits Ontario; this storm marks the first time Doppler images of a tropical cyclone are captured over Canada: Paul Joe 1993: First CHC member attends the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-III, Mexico) 1996 McGill University: Peter Yau and John Gyakum 1998: IWTC-IV Haikou : Special session on ET 1999: IWET I: Kaufbeuren DE (Sarah Jones and Roger Smith) 1999: AEPRI 2001: COMET partnership established 2003: IWET II and Hurricane Juan Halifax NS 2004: National Lab in each Storm Prediction Centre 2005: IWET III Perth AU 2012: IWET IV Montreal QC

6 .

Our knowledge and understanding First International Workshop on of extratropical transition could be Extratropical Transition enhanced through a field Kaufbeuren, Germany, 10 - 14 May 1999 experiment with Intensive Observation Periods. Scientific objectives must be developed for such an experiment. The possibility of using existing resources should be considered, e.g. WWRP/WMO and Typhoon Committee in the Pacific, USWRP and the HRD field programme in the Atlantic. The participation of both forecasters and researchers is essential for the success of a field programme. Outcome: Improved understanding, and better prediction through: – Knowledge transfer (training and development, conceptual models, techniques) – Technology transfer (numerical models, tools) – Data (aircraft, remote sensing, impacts)

Training: COMET Courses and Modules Parametric Wind and Wave modeling

HURRICANE Wave Field at LUIS Sept.11 - 01Z

Sept. 10-11, 1995 11 / 06Z

105 knots 2 Max Reported 3 Sig. Waves QEII 11 / 00Z * 17+ metres 95 knots 4

5 10 / 18Z 85 knots 10 6 9 10 / 12Z 85 knots 7 8

10 / 06Z 85 knots Numerical Weather Prediction

• Coupled Modeling strategies • Ocean and atmospheric data assimilation • High resolution simulations • Vortex insertions

• Improved operational modeling suite

Storm surge prediction and water level alert system

• The first project to be brought to fruition through AEPRI, with collaborators: • Natacha Bernier, Janya Humble, Josko Bobanovic and Keith Thompson (Dal) • George Parkes, Serge Desjardins, and Al MacAfee (MTs, MSC - Atlantic)

Storm Surge Prediction System • Predicts sea level changes caused by weather systems • Based on Dal coastal ocean model • Driven by CMC regional forecast model surface pressures and winds • Alerts forecasters of flooding risk from combination of high tide and large surge

14 The January 21st 2000 Storm

• Powerful storm hit Maritimes • Significant flooding in Charlottetown • Successful prediction by forecast model • Forecast “Helene” barotropic waves Numerical Simulation

Large Atmospheric Computation on the Earth Simulator

• 40 clusters of 16 full SX-6 nodes • 8 vector processors per node Total 5120 PEs • Peak performance 40 Tflops/sec • Memory: 16 Gbytes/node Total: 10 TB • NEC IXS Xbar Interconnec Collaboration

RPN: ESC: McGill University: Michel Desgagné Wataru Ohfuchi Peter Yau Gilbert Brunet John Gyakum Robert Benoit Ron McTaggart-Cowan Claude Girard Yosvany Martinez Pierre Pellerin Michel Valin

CSU: Mike Montgomery LACES: A Grand Challenge project on the Earth Simulator

964 hPa

ET Phase

985 hPa Modelling the Full Lifecycle of Hurricane Earl (Sept 1998) Tropical Phase at 1km Resolution with the Canadian Class2 Hurricane MC2 Model

September 1998: Classified as a very active TC period Observations

•Doppler Radar •Additional buoys •Aircraft flights CV580 • Michael 2000 • Karen 2001 • Isabel and Juan 2003 • Ophelia 2006 •Synthetic Aperture Radar

Hugo through King City radar 1989

21 Bouys: Trapped Fetch Resonant Waves Defense Research: AXBT/AXCTD “Michael”

Aircraft Investigations

Cross-section of wind speeds Key findings from the flights

• Highly asymmetric wind field • Deep wind region again on right-hand side (as in Michael 2000) • Drying-out above 900 mb (1000 m) on south side • Tilted eyewall - stadium effect or ET tilt? • High degree of variability in wind profiles in different sectors of the storm: • Near 50% wind reduction in BL on east side outside RMW • Near 20% (only) wind reduction near RMW and on south side (downward momentum mixing more efficient; BL rolls seen in doppler may be helping?) • This has significant implications for wind forecasting • Challenges: • Isabel (GPS) winds, icing buildup • Juan some lingering GPS issues in high wind region

Another opportunistic SAR scan capturing wind field early in the ET process

Page 27 CHC Outcomes • Very good relationship with research community and other operational centres (facilitated by WMO TMP, National Marine Lab and a wonderful TC community) • Trained and motivated forecasters • Credibility with Canadian media and public • Demonstrated public response to protect lives and property

Courtesy, Newton Pritchett Courtesy, Newton Pritchett Courtesy, CBC SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR

• EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND:

WITH THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE KATIA WELL OFFSHORE OF NEWFOUNDLAND, ITS RAPID FORWARD SPEED OF TRAVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS MAY TRIGGER RAPID TIDE-LIKE CHANGES IN HARBOUR WATER LEVELS OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THE MOST PROBABLE PERIOD FOR THIS WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, AND AREAS MOST PRONE TO THIS RANGE FROM THE SOUTHERN AVALON TO THE BONAVISTA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORMS THAT HAVE RACED ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS (MOVING OVER 100 KM/H) IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN HARBOURS TO RISE AND FALL 2 OR 3 TIMES OVER THE SPAN OF AN HOUR AND FLUCTUATE BY AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 METRES (6 TO 10 FEET). THIS IS AN ADVISORY THAT THIS MAY - REPEAT MAY - OCCUR AND INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ON THE WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PREDICTING THE ACTUAL WATER LEVEL CHANGES FOR VARIOUS HARBOURS IS VERY DIFFICULT. THE HIGH (NATURAL) TIDE IN THE REGION WILL BE IN THE 7:30 TO 8:30 PM TIME FRAME TODAY, WHEN SUCH EFFECTS WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT IF THEY OCCUR.

34 Research-operational partnerships: Benefit to public safety • International partnerships facilitated by IWTC and IWET • Substantial benefit from forecaster-researcher interaction – Knowledge transfer (understanding, conceptual models, training and development) – Technology transfer (models, tools and techniques) – Data (aircraft, remote sensing, impacts)

• Recruitment, retention and succession planning

35 Thanks Merci!