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Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a Partnership Between Research and Operations

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Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a partnership between research and operations

J.D. Abraham Director General Weather and Environmental Monitoring Meteorological Service of Canada

IWET IV May 24 2012

Creation and evolution of the CHC: 25th Anniversary

September 25-28, 1985 – Hurricane Gloria affected the Maritime provinces. Canadians had to rely largely on U.S. forecasts concerning this intense storm. When the storm's effects on Canada were much less than predicted, there was considerable confusion in the media and the general public. This eventually lead to the creation of the CHC.

1980’s CNN – Growth in cable news and live coverage August 31, 1987 – Environment Canada established hurricane centres on each coast: at the then Maritimes Weather Centre (Bedford, N.S.), and at the then Pacific Weather Centre (Vancouver, B.C.). 2000 – The Canadian Hurricane Centre was established in Dartmouth, N.S., to serve all of Canada.

Canadian Hurricane Centre Ops

1987: First hurricane forecasting specialists were identified: Jim Abraham, Peter Bowyer, Al MacAfee, Ken MacDonald, John Merrick

CHC issues first bulletins on Hurricane Emily

1989: First Environment Canada meteorologist attends the WMO-NHC Hurricane Workshop

1991: First hurricane-forecasting training delivered in Canada by a U.S. National Hurricane Centre specialist (Hal Gerrish)

1994: Development and implementation of hurricane workstation software that prepares tracks and bulletins (Al MacAfee)

TC (not ET) Training

4

ET: a collaborative R&D and forecaster challenge

1989: Tropical Storm Hugo hits Ontario; this storm marks the first time Doppler images of a tropical cyclone are captured over Canada: Paul Joe

1993: First CHC member attends the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-III, Mexico)

1996 McGill University: Peter Yau and John Gyakum 1998: IWTC-IV Haikou : Special session on ET 1999: IWET I: Kaufbeuren DE (Sarah Jones and Roger Smith) 1999: AEPRI 2001: COMET partnership established 2003: IWET II and Hurricane Juan Halifax NS 2004: National Lab in each Storm Prediction Centre 2005: IWET III Perth AU 2012: IWET IV Montreal QC

6

.

Our knowledge and understanding of extratropical transition could be enhanced through a field

First International Workshop on Extratropical Transition Kaufbeuren, Germany, 10 - 14 May 1999

experiment with Intensive Observation Periods. Scientific objectives must be developed for such an experiment. The possibility of using existing resources should be considered, e.g. WWRP/WMO and Typhoon Committee in the Pacific, USWRP and the HRD field programme in the Atlantic. The participation of both forecasters and researchers is essential for the success of a field programme.

Outcome: Improved understanding, and better prediction through:

– Knowledge transfer (training and development, conceptual models, techniques)

– Technology transfer (numerical models, tools) – Data (aircraft, remote sensing, impacts)

Training: COMET Courses and Modules

Parametric Wind and Wave modeling

HURRICANE
LUIS

Wave Field at Sept.11 - 01Z

Sept. 10-11, 1995

11 / 06Z
105 knots

2
Max Reported Sig. Waves 17+ metres
3

QEII

11 / 00Z

*

95 knots

4

10 / 18Z

5
10

85 knots

6
9

10 / 12Z
85 knots

7
8

10 / 06Z
85 knots

Numerical Weather Prediction

• Coupled Modeling strategies • Ocean and atmospheric data assimilation • High resolution simulations • Vortex insertions

• Improved operational modeling suite

12

Storm surge prediction and water level alert system

• The first project to be brought to fruition through
AEPRI, with collaborators:
• Natacha Bernier, Janya Humble, Josko Bobanovic

and Keith Thompson (Dal)
• George Parkes, Serge Desjardins, and Al MacAfee

(MTs, MSC - Atlantic)

13

Storm Surge Prediction System

• Predicts sea level changes caused by weather systems • Based on Dal coastal ocean model • Driven by CMC regional forecast model surface pressures and winds
• Alerts forecasters of flooding risk from combination of

high tide and large surge

14

The January 21st 2000 Storm

• Powerful storm hit
Maritimes
• Significant flooding in Charlottetown
• Successful prediction by forecast model
• Forecast

“Helene” barotropic waves

Numerical Simulation

Large Atmospheric Computation on the Earth Simulator

• 40 clusters of 16 full SX-6 nodes • 8 vector processors per node Total 5120 PEs • Peak performance 40 Tflops/sec • Memory: 16 Gbytes/node Total: 10 TB • NEC IXS Xbar Interconnec

Collaboration

  • RPN:
  • ESC:
  • McGill University:

Michel Desgagné
Gilbert Brunet Robert Benoit Claude Girard Pierre Pellerin
Michel Valin

  • Wataru Ohfuchi
  • Peter Yau

John Gyakum
Ron McTaggart-Cowan
Yosvany Martinez

CSU:

Mike Montgomery

LACES: A Grand Challenge project on the Earth Simulator

964 hPa

ET Phase

985 hPa
Modelling the Full Lifecycle of

Hurricane Earl (Sept 1998) at 1km Resolution with the Canadian MC2 Model

Tropical Phase Class2 Hurricane

September 1998: Classified as a very active TC period

Observations

•Doppler Radar •Additional buoys •Aircraft flights CV580

• Michael 2000 • Karen 2001 • Isabel and Juan 2003 • Ophelia 2006

•Synthetic Aperture Radar

Hugo through King City radar 1989

21

Bouys: Trapped Fetch Resonant Waves
Defense Research: AXBT/AXCTD “Michael”

Aircraft Investigations

Cross-section of wind speeds

Key findings from the flights

• Highly asymmetric wind field • Deep wind region again on right-hand side (as in Michael 2000) • Drying-out above 900 mb (1000 m) on south side • Tilted eyewall - stadium effect or ET tilt? • High degree of variability in wind profiles in different sectors of the storm:
• Near 50% wind reduction in BL on east side outside RMW

• Near 20% (only) wind reduction near RMW and on south side
(downward momentum mixing more efficient; BL rolls seen in doppler may be helping?)
• This has significant implications for wind forecasting

• Challenges: • Isabel (GPS) winds, icing buildup • Juan some lingering GPS issues in high wind region

Another opportunistic SAR scan capturing wind field early in the ET process

Page 27

CHC Outcomes

• Very good relationship with research community and other operational centres (facilitated by WMO TMP, National Marine Lab and a wonderful TC community)

• Trained and motivated forecasters • Credibility with Canadian media and public

• Demonstrated public response to protect lives and property

Recommended publications
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