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Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a Partnership Between Research and Operations
Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a partnership between research and operations J.D. Abraham Director General Weather and Environmental Monitoring Meteorological Service of Canada IWET IV May 24 2012 Creation and evolution of the CHC: 25th Anniversary September 25-28, 1985 – Hurricane Gloria affected the Maritime provinces. Canadians had to rely largely on U.S. forecasts concerning this intense storm. When the storm's effects on Canada were much less than predicted, there was considerable confusion in the media and the general public. This eventually lead to the creation of the CHC. 1980’s CNN – Growth in cable news and live coverage August 31, 1987 – Environment Canada established hurricane centres on each coast: at the then Maritimes Weather Centre (Bedford, N.S.), and at the then Pacific Weather Centre (Vancouver, B.C.). 2000 – The Canadian Hurricane Centre was established in Dartmouth, N.S., to serve all of Canada. Canadian Hurricane Centre Ops 1987: First hurricane forecasting specialists were identified: Jim Abraham, Peter Bowyer, Al MacAfee, Ken MacDonald, John Merrick CHC issues first bulletins on Hurricane Emily 1989: First Environment Canada meteorologist attends the WMO-NHC Hurricane Workshop 1991: First hurricane-forecasting training delivered in Canada by a U.S. National Hurricane Centre specialist (Hal Gerrish) 1994: Development and implementation of hurricane workstation software that prepares tracks and bulletins (Al MacAfee) TC (not ET) Training 4 ET: a collaborative R&D and forecaster challenge 1989: Tropical Storm Hugo -
Subtropical Storms in the South Atlantic Basin and Their Correlation with Australian East-Coast Cyclones
2B.5 SUBTROPICAL STORMS IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC BASIN AND THEIR CORRELATION WITH AUSTRALIAN EAST-COAST CYCLONES Aviva J. Braun* The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 1. INTRODUCTION With the exception of warmer SST in the Tasman Sea region (0°−60°S, 25°E−170°W), the climate associated with South Atlantic ST In March 2004, a subtropical storm formed off is very similar to that associated with the coast of Brazil leading to the formation of Australian east-coast cyclones (ECC). A Hurricane Catarina. This was the first coastal mountain range lies along the east documented hurricane to ever occur in the coast of each continent: the Great Dividing South Atlantic basin. It is also the storm that Range in Australia (Fig. 1) and the Serra da has made us reconsider why tropical storms Mantiqueira in the Brazilian Highlands (Fig. 2). (TS) have never been observed in this basin The East Australia Current transports warm, although they regularly form in every other tropical water poleward in the Tasman Sea tropical ocean basin. In fact, every other basin predominantly through transient warm eddies in the world regularly sees tropical storms (Holland et al. 1987), providing a zonal except the South Atlantic. So why is the South temperature gradient important to creating a Atlantic so different? The latitudes in which TS baroclinic environment essential for ST would normally form is subject to 850-200 hPa formation. climatological shears that are far too strong for pure tropical storms (Pezza and Simmonds 2. METHODOLOGY 2006). However, subtropical storms (ST), as defined by Guishard (2006), can form in such a. -
Variations Aperiodic Extreme Sea Level in Cuba Under the Influence
Extreme non-regular sea level variations in Cuba under the influence of intense tropical cyclones. Item Type Journal Contribution Authors Hernández González, M. Citation Serie Oceanológica, (8). p. 13-24 Publisher Instituto de Oceanología Download date 02/10/2021 16:50:34 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/1834/4053 Serie Oceanológica. No. 8, 2011 ISSN 2072-800x Extreme non-regular sea level variations in Cuba under the influence of intense tropical cyclones. Variaciones aperiódicas extremas del nivel del mar en Cuba bajo la influencia de intensos ciclones tropicales. Marcelino Hernández González* *Institute of Oceanology. Ave. 1ra. No.18406 entre 184 y 186. Flores, Playa, Havana, Cuba. [email protected] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was sponsored by the scientific – technical service "Real Time Measurement and Transmission of Information. Development of Operational Oceanographic Products", developed at the Institute of Oceanology. The author wishes to thank Mrs. Martha M. Rivero Fernandez, from the Marine Information Service of the Institute of Oceanology, for her support in the translation of this article. Abstract This paper aimed at analyzing non-regular sea level variations of meteorological origin under the influence of six major tropical cyclones that affected Cuba, from sea level hourly height series in twelve coastal localities. As a result, it was obtained a characterization of the magnitude and timing of extreme sea level variations under the influence of intense tropical cyclones. Resumen El presente trabajo tuvo como objetivo analizar las variaciones aperiódicas del nivel del mar de origen meteorológico bajo la influencia de seis de los principales ciclones tropicales que han afectado a Cuba, a partir de series de alturas horarias del nivel del mar de doce localidades costeras. -
The Influences of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and the African Easterly Jet on Hurricane Tracks During Strong and Weak Seasons
Meteorology Senior Theses Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects 2018 The nflueI nces of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and the African Easterly Jet on Hurricane Tracks During Strong and Weak Seasons Hannah Messier Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/mteor_stheses Part of the Meteorology Commons Recommended Citation Messier, Hannah, "The nflueI nces of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and the African Easterly Jet on Hurricane Tracks During Strong and Weak Seasons" (2018). Meteorology Senior Theses. 40. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/mteor_stheses/40 This Dissertation/Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Meteorology Senior Theses by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Influences of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and the African Easterly Jet on Hurricane Tracks During Strong and Weak Seasons Hannah Messier Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa Alex Gonzalez — Mentor Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames Iowa Joshua J. Alland — Mentor Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York ABSTRACT The summertime behavior of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), African Easterly Jet (AEJ), and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) can provide clues about key physical aspects of a particular hurricane season. More accurate tropical weather forecasts are imperative to those living in coastal areas around the United States to prevent loss of life and property. -
2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review
2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review WHITEPAPER Executive Summary The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a quiet season, closing with eight 2014 marks the named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or longest period on stronger). record – nine Forecast groups predicted that the formation of El Niño and below consecutive years average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main – that no major Development Region (MDR)1 through the season would inhibit hurricanes made development in 2014, leading to a below average season. While 2014 landfall over the was indeed quiet, these predictions didn’t materialize. U.S. The scientific community has attributed the low activity in 2014 to a number of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, predominantly anomalously low Atlantic mid-level moisture, anomalously high tropical Atlantic subsidence (sinking air) in the Main Development Region (MDR), and strong wind shear across the Caribbean. Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin was also influenced by below average activity in the 2014 West African monsoon season, which suppressed the development of African easterly winds. The year 2014 marks the longest period on record – nine consecutive years since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 – that no major hurricanes made landfall over the U.S., and also the ninth consecutive year that no hurricane made landfall over the coastline of Florida. The U.S. experienced only one landfalling hurricane in 2014, Hurricane Arthur. Arthur made landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane on July 4, causing minor damage. While Mexico and Central America were impacted by two landfalling storms and the Caribbean by three, Bermuda suffered the most substantial damage due to landfalling storms in 2014.Hurricane Fay and Major Hurricane Gonzalo made landfall on the island within a week of each other, on October 12 and October 18, respectively. -
Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats
8786 ReportScience Title and the Storms: the USGS Response to the Hurricanes of 2005 Chapter Five: Landscape5 Changes The hurricanes of 2005 greatly changed the landscape of the Gulf Coast. The following articles document the initial damage assessment from coastal Alabama to Texas; the change of 217 mi2 of coastal Louisiana to water after Katrina and Rita; estuarine damage to barrier islands of the central Gulf Coast, especially Dauphin Island, Ala., and the Chandeleur Islands, La.; erosion of beaches of western Louisiana after Rita; and the damages and loss of floodplain forest of the Pearl River Basin. Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats By Thomas C. Michot, Christopher J. Wells, and Paul C. Chadwick Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southeast Louisiana on August 29, 2005, and Hurricane Rita made landfall in southwest Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flew aerial surveys to assess damages to natural resources and to lands owned and managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Flights were made on eight dates from August Introduction 27 through October 4, including one pre-Katrina, three post-Katrina, The USGS National Wetlands and four post-Rita surveys. The Research Center (NWRC) has a geographic area surveyed history of conducting aerial rapid- extended from Galveston, response surveys to assess Tex., to Gulf Shores, hurricane damages along the Ala., and from the Gulf coastal areas of the Gulf of of Mexico shoreline Mexico and Caribbean inland 5–75 mi Sea. Posthurricane (8–121 km). -
Downloaded 09/24/21 04:27 PM UTC 1512 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 146
MAY 2018 C A V I C C H I A E T A L . 1511 Energetics and Dynamics of Subtropical Australian East Coast Cyclones: Two Contrasting Cases LEONE CAVICCHIA School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia ANDREW DOWDY Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia KEVIN WALSH School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia (Manuscript received 27 October 2017, in final form 13 March 2018) ABSTRACT The subtropical east coast region of Australia is characterized by the frequent occurrence of low pressure systems, known as east coast lows (ECLs). The more intense ECLs can cause severe damage and disruptions to this region. While the term ‘‘east coast low’’ refers to a broad classification of events, it has been argued that different ECLs can have substantial differences in their nature, being dominated by baroclinic and barotropic processes in different degrees. Here we reexamine two well-known historical ECL case studies under this perspective: the Duck storm of March 2001 and the Pasha Bulker storm of June 2007. Exploiting the cyclone phase space analysis to study the storms’ full three-dimensional structure, we show that one storm has features similar to a typical extratropical frontal cyclone, while the other has hybrid tropical–extratropical charac- teristics. Furthermore, we examine the energetics of the atmosphere in a limited area including both systems for the ECL occurrence times, and show that the two cyclones are associated with different signatures in the energy conversion terms. We argue that the systematic use of the phase space and energetics diagnostics can form the basis for a physically based classification of ECLs, which is important to advance the understanding of ECL risk in a changing climate. -
Modelling Global Tropical Cyclone Wind Footprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-207 Preprint. Discussion started: 2 July 2019 c Author(s) 2019. CC BY 4.0 License. Modelling Global Tropical Cyclone Wind Footprints James M. Done1,2, Ming Ge1, Greg J. Holland1,2, Ioana Dima-West3, Samuel Phibbs3, Geoffrey R. Saville3, and Yuqing Wang4 5 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder CO 80301, US 2Willis Research Network, 51 Lime St, London, EC3M 7DQ, UK 3Willis Towers Watson, 51 Lime St, London, EC3M 7DQ, UK 4International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, HI 96822, US. 10 Correspondence to: James M. Done ([email protected]) Abstract. A novel approach to modelling the surface wind field of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. The modelling system simulates the evolution of the low-level wind fields of landfalling TCs, accounting for terrain effects. A two- step process models the gradient-level wind field using a parametric wind field model fitted to TC track data, then brings the winds down to the surface using a full numerical boundary layer model. The physical wind response to variable surface drag 15 and terrain height produces substantial local modifications to the smooth wind field provided by the parametric wind profile model. For a set of U.S. historical landfalling TCs the simulated footprints compare favourably with surface station observations. The model is applicable from single event simulation to the generation of global catalogues. One application demonstrated here is the creation of a dataset of 714 global historical TC overland wind footprints. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
1 a Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020
1 A Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020 2 3 Philip J. Klotzbach* 4 Department of Atmospheric Science 5 Colorado State University 6 Fort Collins CO 80523 7 8 Kimberly M. Wood# 9 Department of Geosciences 10 Mississippi State University 11 Mississippi State MS 39762 12 13 Michael M. Bell 14 Department of Atmospheric Science 15 Colorado State University 16 Fort Collins CO 80523 17 1 18 Eric S. Blake 19 National Hurricane Center 1 Early Online Release: This preliminary version has been accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, may be fully cited, and has been assigned DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1. The final typeset copyedited article will replace the EOR at the above DOI when it is published. © 2021 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 05:03 AM UTC 20 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 21 Miami FL 33165 22 23 Steven G. Bowen 24 Aon 25 Chicago IL 60601 26 27 Louis-Philippe Caron 28 Ouranos 29 Montreal Canada H3A 1B9 30 31 Barcelona Supercomputing Center 32 Barcelona Spain 08034 33 34 Jennifer M. Collins 35 School of Geosciences 36 University of South Florida 37 Tampa FL 33620 38 2 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 05:03 AM UTC Accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1. 39 Ethan J. Gibney 40 UCAR/Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science 41 San Diego, CA 92127 42 43 Carl J. Schreck III 44 North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System 45 Studies (CISESS) 46 North Carolina State University 47 Asheville NC 28801 48 49 Ryan E. -
Summary of 2002 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity And
SUMMARY OF 2002 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHORS' SEASONAL ACTIVITY FORECAST An Early Summer Successful Forecast of an Inactive Hurricane Season - But the Many Weak, Higher Latitude Tropical Storms That Formed Were Not Anticipated (as of 21 November 2002) By William M. Gray1, Christopher W. Landsea,2 and Philip Klotzbach3 with advice and assistance from William Thorson4 and Jason Connor5 [This verification as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/] Brad Bohlander or Thomas Milligan, Colorado State University Media Representatives (970-491-6432) are available to answer questions about this verification. Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 Phone Number: 970-491-8681 2002 ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST Tropical Cyclone Parameters Updated Updated Updated Updated Observed and 1950-2000 Climatology 7 Dec 5 April 2002 31 May 2002 7 Aug 2002 2 Sep 2002 (in parentheses) 2001 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Totals Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 13 12 11 9 8 12 Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 70 65 55 35 25 54 Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 8 7 6 4 3 4 Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 35 30 25 12 10 11 Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 4 3 2 1 1 2 Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 7 6 5 2 2 2.5 Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) (72.7) 90 85 75 35 25 31 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 140 125 100 60 45 80 VERIFICATION OF 2002 MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL FORECAST 7 Dec 5 Apr 31 May 7 Aug Fcst.