Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a Partnership Between Research and Operations

Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a partnership between research and operations J.D. Abraham Director General Weather and Environmental Monitoring Meteorological Service of Canada IWET IV May 24 2012 Creation and evolution of the CHC: 25th Anniversary September 25-28, 1985 – Hurricane Gloria affected the Maritime provinces. Canadians had to rely largely on U.S. forecasts concerning this intense storm. When the storm's effects on Canada were much less than predicted, there was considerable confusion in the media and the general public. This eventually lead to the creation of the CHC. 1980’s CNN – Growth in cable news and live coverage August 31, 1987 – Environment Canada established hurricane centres on each coast: at the then Maritimes Weather Centre (Bedford, N.S.), and at the then Pacific Weather Centre (Vancouver, B.C.). 2000 – The Canadian Hurricane Centre was established in Dartmouth, N.S., to serve all of Canada. Canadian Hurricane Centre Ops 1987: First hurricane forecasting specialists were identified: Jim Abraham, Peter Bowyer, Al MacAfee, Ken MacDonald, John Merrick <a href="/goto?url=http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/140D452D-5A08-43B0-A9FF-9B9B4B8C033E/187firstbulletinhurricane-emily_e-rev.txt" target="_blank">CHC issues first bulletins on Hurricane Emily </a>1989: First Environment Canada meteorologist attends the WMO-NHC Hurricane Workshop 1991: First hurricane-forecasting training delivered in Canada by a U.S. National Hurricane Centre specialist (Hal Gerrish) 1994: Development and implementation of hurricane workstation software that prepares tracks and bulletins (Al MacAfee) TC (not ET) Training 4ET: a collaborative R&D and forecaster challenge 1989: Tropical Storm Hugo hits Ontario; this storm marks the first time Doppler images of a tropical cyclone are captured over Canada: Paul Joe 1993: First CHC member attends the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-III, Mexico) 1996 McGill University: Peter Yau and John Gyakum 1998: IWTC-IV Haikou : Special session on ET 1999: IWET I: Kaufbeuren DE (Sarah Jones and Roger Smith) 1999: AEPRI 2001: COMET partnership established 2003: IWET II and Hurricane Juan Halifax NS 2004: National Lab in each Storm Prediction Centre 2005: IWET III Perth AU 2012: IWET IV Montreal QC 6.Our knowledge and understanding of extratropical transition could be enhanced through a field First International Workshop on Extratropical Transition Kaufbeuren, Germany, 10 - 14 May 1999 experiment with Intensive Observation Periods. Scientific objectives must be developed for such an experiment. The possibility of using existing resources should be considered, e.g. WWRP/WMO and Typhoon Committee in the Pacific, USWRP and the HRD field programme in the Atlantic. The participation of both forecasters and researchers is essential for the success of a field programme. Outcome: Improved understanding, and better prediction through: – Knowledge transfer (training and development, conceptual models, techniques) – Technology transfer (numerical models, tools) – Data (aircraft, remote sensing, impacts) Training: COMET Courses and Modules Parametric Wind and Wave modeling HURRICANE LUIS Wave Field at Sept.11 - 01Z Sept. 10-11, 1995 11 / 06Z 105 knots 2 Max Reported Sig. Waves 17+ metres 3QEII 11 / 00Z *95 knots 410 / 18Z 5 10 85 knots 6 910 / 12Z 85 knots 7 810 / 06Z 85 knots Numerical Weather Prediction • Coupled Modeling strategies • Ocean and atmospheric data assimilation • High resolution simulations • Vortex insertions • Improved operational modeling suite 12 Storm surge prediction and water level alert system • The first project to be brought to fruition through AEPRI, with collaborators: • Natacha Bernier, Janya Humble, Josko Bobanovic and Keith Thompson (Dal) • George Parkes, Serge Desjardins, and Al MacAfee (MTs, MSC - Atlantic) 13 Storm Surge Prediction System • Predicts sea level changes caused by weather systems • Based on Dal coastal ocean model • Driven by CMC regional forecast model surface pressures and winds • Alerts forecasters of flooding risk from combination of high tide and large surge 14 The January 21st 2000 Storm • Powerful storm hit Maritimes • Significant flooding in Charlottetown • Successful prediction by forecast model • Forecast “Helene” barotropic waves Numerical Simulation Large Atmospheric Computation on the Earth Simulator • 40 clusters of 16 full SX-6 nodes • 8 vector processors per node Total 5120 PEs • Peak performance 40 Tflops/sec • Memory: 16 Gbytes/node Total: 10 TB • NEC IXS Xbar Interconnec Collaboration <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">RPN: </li><li style="flex:1">ESC: </li><li style="flex:1">McGill University: </li></ul>Michel Desgagné Gilbert Brunet Robert Benoit Claude Girard Pierre Pellerin Michel Valin <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Wataru Ohfuchi </li><li style="flex:1">Peter Yau </li></ul>John Gyakum Ron McTaggart-Cowan Yosvany Martinez CSU: Mike Montgomery LACES: A Grand Challenge project on the Earth Simulator 964 hPa ET Phase 985 hPa Modelling the Full Lifecycle of Hurricane Earl (Sept 1998) at 1km Resolution with the Canadian MC2 Model Tropical Phase Class2 Hurricane September 1998: Classified as a very active TC period Observations •Doppler Radar •Additional buoys •Aircraft flights CV580 • Michael 2000 • Karen 2001 • Isabel and Juan 2003 • Ophelia 2006 •Synthetic Aperture Radar Hugo through King City radar 1989 21 Bouys: Trapped Fetch Resonant Waves Defense Research: AXBT/AXCTD “Michael” Aircraft Investigations Cross-section of wind speeds Key findings from the flights • Highly asymmetric wind field • Deep wind region again on right-hand side (as in Michael 2000) • Drying-out above 900 mb (1000 m) on south side • Tilted eyewall - stadium effect or ET tilt? • High degree of variability in wind profiles in different sectors of the storm: • Near 50% wind reduction in BL on east side outside RMW • Near 20% (only) wind reduction near RMW and on south side (downward momentum mixing more efficient; BL rolls seen in doppler may be helping?) • This has significant implications for wind forecasting • Challenges: • Isabel (GPS) winds, icing buildup • Juan some lingering GPS issues in high wind region Another opportunistic SAR scan capturing wind field early in the ET process Page 27 CHC Outcomes • Very good relationship with research community and other operational centres (facilitated by WMO TMP, National Marine Lab and a wonderful TC community) • Trained and motivated forecasters • Credibility with Canadian media and public • Demonstrated public response to protect lives and property

Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a Partnership Between Research and Operations

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