Hurricane Igor Off Newfoundland
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Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a Partnership Between Research and Operations
Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a partnership between research and operations J.D. Abraham Director General Weather and Environmental Monitoring Meteorological Service of Canada IWET IV May 24 2012 Creation and evolution of the CHC: 25th Anniversary September 25-28, 1985 – Hurricane Gloria affected the Maritime provinces. Canadians had to rely largely on U.S. forecasts concerning this intense storm. When the storm's effects on Canada were much less than predicted, there was considerable confusion in the media and the general public. This eventually lead to the creation of the CHC. 1980’s CNN – Growth in cable news and live coverage August 31, 1987 – Environment Canada established hurricane centres on each coast: at the then Maritimes Weather Centre (Bedford, N.S.), and at the then Pacific Weather Centre (Vancouver, B.C.). 2000 – The Canadian Hurricane Centre was established in Dartmouth, N.S., to serve all of Canada. Canadian Hurricane Centre Ops 1987: First hurricane forecasting specialists were identified: Jim Abraham, Peter Bowyer, Al MacAfee, Ken MacDonald, John Merrick CHC issues first bulletins on Hurricane Emily 1989: First Environment Canada meteorologist attends the WMO-NHC Hurricane Workshop 1991: First hurricane-forecasting training delivered in Canada by a U.S. National Hurricane Centre specialist (Hal Gerrish) 1994: Development and implementation of hurricane workstation software that prepares tracks and bulletins (Al MacAfee) TC (not ET) Training 4 ET: a collaborative R&D and forecaster challenge 1989: Tropical Storm Hugo -
Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats
8786 ReportScience Title and the Storms: the USGS Response to the Hurricanes of 2005 Chapter Five: Landscape5 Changes The hurricanes of 2005 greatly changed the landscape of the Gulf Coast. The following articles document the initial damage assessment from coastal Alabama to Texas; the change of 217 mi2 of coastal Louisiana to water after Katrina and Rita; estuarine damage to barrier islands of the central Gulf Coast, especially Dauphin Island, Ala., and the Chandeleur Islands, La.; erosion of beaches of western Louisiana after Rita; and the damages and loss of floodplain forest of the Pearl River Basin. Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats By Thomas C. Michot, Christopher J. Wells, and Paul C. Chadwick Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southeast Louisiana on August 29, 2005, and Hurricane Rita made landfall in southwest Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flew aerial surveys to assess damages to natural resources and to lands owned and managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Flights were made on eight dates from August Introduction 27 through October 4, including one pre-Katrina, three post-Katrina, The USGS National Wetlands and four post-Rita surveys. The Research Center (NWRC) has a geographic area surveyed history of conducting aerial rapid- extended from Galveston, response surveys to assess Tex., to Gulf Shores, hurricane damages along the Ala., and from the Gulf coastal areas of the Gulf of of Mexico shoreline Mexico and Caribbean inland 5–75 mi Sea. Posthurricane (8–121 km). -
2018 Hurricane Season Preview – Uncertainty Rules the Day
SHORELINES – July 2018 As presented to the Island Review magazine 2018 Hurricane Season Preview – Uncertainty Rules the Day The 2018 hurricane season started its rite of passage on June 1st (well not really – thanks Alberto) and will conclude six months later on November 30th. This year’s forecast is quite complex and uncertain for reasons we will discuss later, but in the interim; it’s important to review the common terminology we will be exposed to. For instance, Subtropical Storm Alberto formed in the Gulf of Mexico just before the official start of the hurricane season in late May and the remnants of this cyclone caused severe flooding in the western part of the State. So what’s the difference between a tropical storm and subtropical storm? Or a hurricane and a major hurricane? The following vocabulary list should help in our understanding. Tropical cyclone - warm-core, atmospheric closed circulation rotating counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical storm – a tropical cyclone with a maximum sustained surface wind speed ranging from 39 mph to 73 mph using the U.S. 1-minute average. Hurricane - a tropical cyclone with a maximum sustained surface wind speed reaching 74 mph or more. Saffir Simpson Scale – a scale including a 1 to 5 rating based upon wind speeds, again utilizing the U.S. 1-minute average. A category 1 hurricane has winds ranging from 74 to 95 miles per hour (mph), category 2 ranges from 96 to 100 mph, category 3 ranges from 111 to 130 mph, category 4 ranges from 131 to 155 mph, and a category 5 hurricane has sustained winds exceeding 155 mph. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER by DAY (To 1994) OCTOBER 1 1969
FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER BY DAY (to 1994) OCTOBER 1 1969 - 1730 - Clay Co., Orange Park - Lightning killed a construction worker who was working on a bridge. A subtropical storm spawned one weak tornado and several waterspouts in Franklin Co. in the morning. 2 195l - south Florida - The center of a Tropical Storm crossed Florida from near Fort Myers to Vero Beach. Rainfall totals ranged from eight to 13 inches along the track, but no strong winds occurred near the center. The strong winds of 50 to 60 mph were all in squalls along the lower east coast and Keys, causing minor property damage. Greatest damage was from rains that flooded farms and pasture lands over a broad belt extending from Naples, Fort Myers, and Punta Gorda on the west coast to Stuart, Fort Pierce, and Vero Beach on the east. Early fall crops flooded out in rich Okeechobee farming area. Many cattle had to be moved out of flooded area, and quite a few were lost by drowning or starvation. Roadways damaged and several bridges washed out. 2-4 1994 - northwest Florida - Flood/Coastal Flood - The remnants of Tropical Depression 10 moved from the northeast Gulf of Mexico, across the Florida Panhandle, and into Georgia on the 2nd. High winds produced rough seas along west central and northwest Florida coasts causing minor tidal flooding and beach erosion. Eighteen people had to be rescued from sinking boats in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle accompanied the system causing extensive flooding to roadways, creeks and low lying areas and minor flooding of rivers. -
Upgrades to the GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Model for 2014 (A JHT Funded Project) Morris A
Upgrades to the GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Model for 2014 (A JHT Funded Project) Morris A. Bender, Matthew Morin, Timothy Marchok, Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Richard Yablonsky and Robert Tuleya 68th Interdepartmenal Hurricane Conference Tuesday, March 5th GFDL 2014 Hurricane Model Upgrade • Increased horizontal resolution of inner nest from 1/12th to 1/18th degree with reduced damping of gravity waves in advection scheme • Improved specification of surface exchange coefficients (ch, cd) and surface stress computation in surface physics • Improved specification of surface roughness and wetness over land. • Modified PBL with variable Critical Richardson Number. • Advection of individual micro-physics species. (Yet to test impact of Rime Factor Advection) • Improved targeting of initial storm maximum wind and storm structure in initialization. (Reduces negative intensity bias in vortex specification) • Remove vortex specification in Atlantic for storms of 40 knots and less • Upgrade ocean model to 1/12th degree MPI POM with unified trans-Atlantic basin and 3D ocean for Eastern Pacific basin • Remove global_chgres in analysis step (direct interpolation from hybrid to sigma coordinates) New Cd and Ch formulation New Ch New Cd Current HWRF and GFDL Cd Current HWRF Ch Comparison of New cd and ch with Recent Referenced Studies Cd Ch Impact of Bogusing on Intensity Errors For Storms 40 knots or less Bogus No Bogus Bogusing Significantly Atlantic Degraded performance in Atlantic for weak systems No Bogus Bogus Bogusing Eastern Significantly Improved Pacific -
Product Guide
ProductsProducts && ServicesServices GuideGuide National Weather Service Corpus Christi, Texas November 2010 Products & Services Guide Page i Products & Services Guide Page ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This guide is intended to provide the news media and emergency services agencies with information and examples of the products issued by the National Weather Service in Corpus Christi, Texas. Armando Garza, former Meteorologist in Charge, initiated the development of this guide. Former meteorologists Bob Burton and current meteorologist Jason Runyen created most of the content for this guide. Warning Coordination Meteorologist John Metz directed the production of this guide. Recognition is also given to the entire staff of WFO Corpus Christi for valuable information and suggestions that were essential in the prepara- tion of this guide. If you have any suggestions for improving this guide, please contact the Warning Coordination Meteorologist or the Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service in Corpus Christi, Texas. The 2010 version of this guide was compiled and updated by Matthew Grantham, Meteorolo- gist Intern and Alex Tardy, Science and Operations Officer. The following forecasters and program leaders updated parts of the guide: Mike Gittinger, Tim Tinsley, Jason Runyen, Roger Gass and Greg Wilk. Products & Services Guide Page iii PRECAUTIONARY NOTE The examples used in this guide are fictional and should not be taken as factual events. These examples are meant to illustrate the format and content of each product produced by your local National Weather Service office. In some cases the examples were cut short and limited to one page. However, the information provided should be adequate to understand the product. -
RA IV Hurricane Committee Thirty-Third Session
dr WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE THIRTYTHIRD SESSION GRAND CAYMAN, CAYMAN ISLANDS (8 to 12 March 2011) FINAL REPORT 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION At the kind invitation of the Government of the Cayman Islands, the thirtythird session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee was held in George Town, Grand Cayman from 8 to 12 March 2011. The opening ceremony commenced at 0830 hours on Tuesday, 8 March 2011. 1.1 Opening of the session 1.1.1 Mr Fred Sambula, Director General of the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, welcomed the participants to the session. He urged that in the face of the annual recurrent threats from tropical cyclones that the Committee review the technical & operational plans with an aim at further refining the Early Warning System to enhance its service delivery to the nations. 1.1.2 Mr Arthur Rolle, President of Regional Association IV (RA IV) opened his remarks by informing the Committee members of the national hazards in RA IV in 2010. He mentioned that the nation of Haiti suffered severe damage from the earthquake in January. He thanked the Governments of France, Canada and the United States for their support to the Government of Haiti in providing meteorological equipment and human resource personnel. He also thanked the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and others for their support to Haiti. The President spoke on the changes that were made to the hurricane warning systems at the 32 nd session of the Hurricane Committee in Bermuda. He mentioned that the changes may have resulted in the reduced loss of lives in countries impacted by tropical cyclones. -
Summary of 2010 Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Forecast
SUMMARY OF 2010 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHOR’S SEASONAL AND TWO-WEEK FORECASTS The 2010 hurricane season had activity at well above-average levels. Our seasonal predictions were quite successful. The United States was very fortunate to have not experienced any landfalling hurricanes this year. By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu Emily Wilmsen, Colorado State University Media Representative, (970-491-6432) is available to answer various questions about this verification. Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 Email: [email protected] As of 10 November 2010* *Climatologically, about two percent of Net Tropical Cyclone activity occurs after this date 1 Research Scientist 2 Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science 1 ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS FOR 2010 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology 9 Dec 2009 Update Update Update Observed (in parentheses) 7 April 2010 2 June 2010 4 Aug 2010 2010 Total Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11-16 15 18 18 19 Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 51-75 75 90 90 88.25 Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 6-8 8 10 10 12 Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 24-39 35 40 40 37.50 Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 3-5 4 5 5 5 Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0) 6-12 10 13 13 11 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.2) 100-162 150 185 185 163 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 108-172 160 195 195 195 Note: Any storms forming after November 10 will be discussed with the December forecast for 2011 Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. -
Lecture 17 Ahrens: Chapter 14
Hurricanes GEOG/ENST 2331 Lecture 17 Ahrens: Chapter 14 Figure to right Atlantic Hurricanes: 2018 Hurricanes Tropical cyclones Dynamics Formation Structure Movement Dissipation Ahrens: Fig. 1, p. 466 Hurricane Rita (Sept. 2005) Tropical cyclones The most powerful of all storms* Lesser intensity than tornadoes but larger size and longer life span makes hurricanes much more devastating Average diameters are approximately 600 km and central pressures average about 950 hPa but may be as low as 870 hPa Below 920 hPa is a Category 5 Tropical cyclone terminology Hurricane North American term Taino language “god of evil” Typhoon Western Pacific term “Tai fung” (Chinese) “Tai-fu” (Japanese) “Great wind” Severe Tropical Cyclone Southern Hemisphere and Ahrens: Fig. 3, p. 471 Indian Ocean Hurricane Juan, 2003 Tropical cyclone genesis areas and storm tracks Tropical related to surface sea temperatures Cyclones Ahrens: Fig. 14.11 SST Distribution All regions of tropical cyclone development frequently exceed 27°C (80°F). Definitions Tropical depression Low pressure system in tropical ocean Tropical storm (Named storm) Sustained winds of 60-120 km/h (18-33 m/s) Hurricane/Typhoon/Severe Tropical Cyclone Sustained winds of 120-180 km/h (33-50 m/s) Categories 1-2 Major Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Sustained winds exceedinG 180 km/h (50 m/s) Categories 3-5 Saffir-Simpson Scale for Hurricane Strength Herbert Saffir and Robert Simpson A&B: Table 12-2 Hurricane-strength storms: 2015 compared to average Basin 1 an 2 3 to 5 Total Average Atlantic 2 2 4 5.9 NH East Pacific* 5 10 15 9.0 NH West Pacific* 4 18 22 16.9 NH Indian 0 2 2 2.2 SH Indian 3 2 5 10.3 SH West Pacific 3 2 5 4.8 * Active TS Global 17 36 53 48.3 To Nov. -
2015 Edition of ‘Blue Ridge Thunder’ the Biannual Newsletter of the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Blacksburg, VA
Welcome to the Fall 2015 edition of ‘Blue Ridge Thunder’ the biannual newsletter of the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Blacksburg, VA. In this issue you will find articles of interest on the weather and climate of our region and the people and technologies needed to bring accurate forecasts to the public. Weather Highlight: Late September Rain and Flooding Peter Corrigan, Sr. Service Hydrologist Inside this Issue: Developing drought conditions across much of the area were brought to a dramatic end in late September as persistent heavy 1: Weather Highlight: th Late September Rain and rains began around the 24 and lasted through the first few days of October. Several stations recorded over 20 inches of rain for the Flooding month of September the vast majority of it falling in a 5 to 6-day 2: Summer 2015 Climate period. The “bullseye” for rainfall was northern Patrick County, VA Summary where Woolwine COOP picked up an amazing 21.18” for the month, most of it in that last week of September. Initially the rains were 3:. Tropical Season persistent but of light to moderate intensity but during the Wrap-up overnight hours of Sep. 28-29 several bands of much heavier rain 4-5: El Niño Looms: moved across the VA Blue Ridge and into parts of the New and Winter 2015-16 Outlook upper Roanoke basins producing widespread flash flooding across several counties. 5: NWS provides IDSS Support for WV State Fair 6: Focus on COOP – Staffordsville, VA 7: Floods of 1985 – 30 year anniversary 8: Recent WFO Staff Changes 8: Hobbyist/UAV Workshop Flash flooding on Sept. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2003
1744 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 133 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2003 MILES B. LAWRENCE,LIXION A. AVILA,JOHN L. BEVEN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN,RICHARD J. PASCH, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 30 April 2004, in final form 8 November 2004) ABSTRACT The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season is described. The season was very active, with 16 tropical storms, 7 of which became hurricanes. There were 49 deaths directly attributed to this year’s tropical cyclones. 1. Introduction hurricane, and Isabel’s category-2 landfall on the Outer There were 16 named tropical cyclones of at least Banks of North Carolina brought hurricane conditions tropical storm strength in the Atlantic basin during to portions of North Carolina and Virginia and record 2003, 7 of which became hurricanes. Table 1 lists these flood levels to the upper Chesapeake Bay. Elsewhere, tropical storms and hurricanes, along with their dates, Erika made landfall on the northeastern Mexico’s Gulf maximum 1-min wind speeds, minimum central sea Coast as a category-1 hurricane, Fabian was the most level pressures, deaths, and U.S. damage. Figure 1 destructive hurricane to hit Bermuda in over 75 yr, and shows the “best tracks” of this season’s storms. Juan was the worst hurricane to hit Halifax, Nova The numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes dur- Scotia, in over 100 yr. ing 2003 are above the long-term (1944–2003) averages This season’s tropical cyclones took 49 lives in the of 10 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes.