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Conflicts in the South Caucasus: Political, Security and Development Challenges

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Conflicts in the South Caucasus: Political, Security and Development Challenges Roundtable Seminar Conflicts in the South Caucasus: Political, Security and Development Challenges Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, Tbilisi 5 and 6 July 2005 The Caucasus Policy Institute, King’s College London in association with The Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Tbilisi) The Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House, London) and Conciliation Resources (London) INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................4 Denis Corboy, Director, Caucasus Policy Institute, King’s College London:......... 4 Ambassador Alex Rondelli, President, Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies:............................................................................................. 4 OPENING REMARKS ................................................................................................................5 Zurab Noghaideli, Prime Minister of Georgia:..................................................... 5 Panel I: POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES AND CONFLICTS ...............8 Alexander Russetsky, Director, The South Caucasus Institute of Regional Security, Tbilisi..................................................................................................... 8 Stepan Safaryan, Director of Research, The Armenian Center for National and International Studies, Yerevan............................................................................... 9 Hijran Huseynova, Professor in Political Sciences, Faculty of International Relations and Law, Baku University.....................................................................12 DISCUSSION: .............................................................................................................................14 Panel II: NON-TRADITIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES AND CONFLICT .........19 Christopher Langton, Head, Defence Analysis Department, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London.....................................................................19 David Darchiashvili, Open Society Georgian Foundation, Tbilisi .......................22 Domitilla Sagramoso, Principal Researcher, Caucasus Policy Institute, King’s College London; Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London ...........................................................................26 DISCUSSION: .............................................................................................................................28 Panel III: REVIEWING REGIONAL CONFLICTS IN 2005 – LOCAL AND REGIONAL CONDITIONS .....................................................................................................32 Oksana Antonenko, Senior Research Fellow, Russia/CIS, International Institute for Strategic Studies, London ...............................................................................32 Ghia Nikolaishvili, Adviser to the Minister on Conflict Issues, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Georgia ...................................................................................................37 Elin Suleymanov, Senior Counsellor, Foreign Relations Department, Office of the President, Republic of Azerbaijan.........................................................................41 Varuzhan Nersessian, Head of the OSCE Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Armenia ..................................................................................................43 DISCUSSION...............................................................................................................................45 Panel IV: THE WAY FORWARD: PRACTICAL MEASURES .......................................49 Giorgi Khutsishvili, Chairman, International Center on Conflict and Negotiations, Tbilisi...................................................................................................................49 Scott Newton, Chair of the Centre for Contemporary Central Asia and the Caucasus, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.............50 Charles King, Ion Ratiu Associate Professor, School of Foreign Service and Department of Government, Georgetown University ............................................54 Panel V: THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION......56 Roy Allison, Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House, London.....56 Maxim Yusin, Head, Foreign Affairs Desk, Izvestia............................................58 Roy Reeve, Head of Mission, OSCE, Tbilisi........................................................60 Romualds Razuks, South Caucasus Liaison Officer, NATO ...............................61 DISCUSSION...............................................................................................................................63 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS..................................................................69 Archil Gegeshidze, Senior Fellow, Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, Tbilisi.................................................................................70 Roy Allison, Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House, London.....72 Day 1: Tuesday 5th July INTRODUCTION Denis Corboy, Director, Caucasus Policy Institute, King’s College London: Mr Prime Minister, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, I would like to welcome you on behalf of the London side of this project. This is a joint project between the Caucasus Policy Institute at King’s College, the Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham House, and Conciliation Resources. We are very grateful to our host, the Georgian Foundation. Also participating from London, we have the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the London School of Economics. I have to comment that in London we have perhaps the largest number of policy experts and academics working on the Caucasus of anywhere. It is a critical mass situation, and this event here demonstrates very well that we can and do all work together. This is a very positive thing. It is a great pleasure to have the Georgian Foundation as a partner. The seminar is a continuation of work that has been going on for roughly eight months now, a continuation of a similar seminar that was conducted in London in April. The purpose is to examine the regional conflicts in a wider framework and to take a fresh look at them in the light of recent developments. How have these impacted on the conflicts, strategically, politically and economically? In the region, changes in Georgia have been dramatic. As the Prime Minister must know, having democratic elections is the easy bit. The difficult bit is starting only now: good governance, economic development and creating a successful business model. This conference also takes place as a new international dimension comes into being: not just stronger US interest in the region, but, one hopes, a continuing EU policy, or a soft policy of the EU, which has been an enormous success in Eastern Europe. We hope to see it developed and extended in this part of Europe as well through the neighbourhood policy. There is a change in Russia’s attitude in the region, both positive and negative. On the positive side, we have to point to the BASIS agreement. But there are also some negatives. What we intend to do at the end is to produce a report and draw conclusions. One final remark: our work is happening in London among friends. I hope that we can build on this and the contacts that have been created through this project. Thank you very much. Ambassador Alex Rondelli, President, Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies: 4 Welcome to our new facilities! We in the Foundation are happy to have such an interesting gathering of people here. You are always welcome here. We believe that hosting this conference is very important for our region. Unfortunately, so far the use of force has prevailed and the political solution seemed never near, but I think that meetings like this, and our joint efforts, make a better job and bring us nearer to a political solution. At least now more and more people understand that the use of force is useless. Conflict resolution is probably becoming one of the most important topics in our current agenda in the region. So once more welcome! We will try to make your work here both pleasant and useful. These two words the most important, perhaps, when a host is addressing the guests. Thank you! I would like to ask the Prime Minister of Georgia to open our seminar. Prime Minister. OPENING REMARKS Zurab Noghaideli, Prime Minister of Georgia: Thank you, Denis. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to welcome you to Tbilisi and to Georgia. It is a special pleasure for me to make these opening remarks at the request of the Caucasus Policy Institute and the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. It is not only symbolic that my statement today follows up the address delivered by my predecessor and friend – the late Zurab Zhvania -- at the very first meeting of the Caucasus Policy Institute eight months ago. As a proponent of new and creative approaches, it is my wish too to support the Institute together with the Georgian Foundation to become generators of fresh and constructive ideas on meeting and overcoming the challenges faced by the south Caucasus region. The winds of change currently affecting the south Caucasus have been brought about by the Rose Revolution. Today Georgia is a vibrant pluralist country
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