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Illegal Jaguar Trade in Latin America: an Evidence-Based Approach To Illegal Jaguar Trade in Latin America: An Evidence-Based Approach to Support Conservation Actions Melissa Micaela Arias Goetschel St. Cross College University of Oxford Supervised by Professor E.J. Milner-Gulland and Dr. Amy Hinsley Trinity Term 2021 A thesis is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 1 Declaration I declare that this thesis is entirely my own work. Contributions by other authors are stated in section 1.4. None of the work has been submitted, in whole or in part, for any previous degree application. Melissa Micaela Arias Goetschel St. Cross College 2 Dedication To my father, Luis Antonio Arias Villalba, who always dreamed of calling me ‘Doctor’, and to the majestic Panthera onca. 3 Acknowledgements I am eternally grateful to my supervisors, Professor E.J. Milner-Gulland and Dr. Amy Hinsley for their support throughout my DPhil. I was incredibly lucky to have been mentored by two brilliant female scientists who are pushing the boundaries of conservation science, while also being incredibly kind and human. Their lessons have made me a better researcher and conservationist, and will continue to have an impact on my career into the future. I owe so much to E.J. for being an inspiration as a conservation leader and optimist, a successful interdisciplinary scientist, and a highly efficient juggler of all things. I am amazed by everything you do and honoured to have been a part of it. I would also like to thank all my colleagues and friends at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Conservation Science (ICCS), the Oxford-Martin Programme on the Wildlife Trade, and the Department of Zoology. Sharing the ups and downs of this experience with such an amazing group of people has been certainly a highlight of my DPhil. I am sad that Covid-19 cut our time together short, but nevertheless I have been constantly inspired by your achievements and passion for wildlife. I am extremely thankful to my research collaborators in Bolivia, Mesoamerica and beyond. It would have been impossible to achieve this work without the help and hard-work from my research assistants, Paola Nogales-Ascarrunz, Pamela Jenny Carvajal-Bacarreza, Jorge Zapata-Munoz and Miguel Fernandez. I am also extremely thankful to Jenny Anne Glikman, Nuno Negroes, and ACEAA for financially, logistically and intellectually supporting my fieldwork in Bolivia; and to the Museum of Natural History of La Paz and the Ministry of Environment and Water of Bolivia for granting the research permits to conduct this work. My work in Mesoamerica was possible thanks to the encouragement and support of WCS Mesoamerica, particularly Lee McLoughlin, Kurt Duchez, John Polisar, Jeremy Radachowsky, Adrian Reuter, Ana Elisa Lambert, and the Guatemala and Belize country 4 offices. I thank Consejo Nacional de Areas Protegidas de Guatemala and the Belize Forest Department for granting the research permits to conduct this work. I am thankful to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, particularly Juan Carlos Vasquez and Johannes Stahl, for selecting me to conduct CITES’ Study on the Illegal Trade in Jaguars, and allowing my DPhil to achieve a greater impact on jaguar conservation policies. I am thankful to the multiple institutions who trusted me with their financial support, including the Wildlife Conservation Society, the Wildlife Conservation Network, the San Diego Zoo’s Institute for Conservation Research, the Rufford Foundation, the Society of American Mammalogists, the Society for Conservation Biology, St. Cross College and SENESCYT. I owe my gratitude to my research participants in Mesoamerica and Bolivia for donating their time and knowledge to this study. Opening doors to a stranger can be very difficult, and I am very grateful to have always been greeted with a smile. This work is a tiny reflection of their lives at the conservation frontlines. Last but not least, I am grateful to my family for being the foundation of my aspirations to embark on this journey. Thanks to my brothers, Santiago and Luis Antonio Arias, and my aunts, for keeping me close to their lives despite the distance, and to my mother, Jimena Goetschel, for being an emotional support and an unexpected research assistant. To Jade Stelle, for warming my lap and purring my worries away through all those days and nights of writing. And to my husband, Frederico Arana Meira, who was really the force behind this DPhil. Words will never be enough to say how much I appreciate and thank you for standing by my side through this academic marathon. This DPhil is as much yours as it is mine. We did it! 5 Table of Contents Declaration .............................................................................................................................................. 2 Dedication ............................................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................. 4 Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... 6 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 9 Resumen ............................................................................................................................................... 10 List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................... 11 List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................ 12 List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ..................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 15 1.1 Problem statement ............................................................................................................... 16 1.2 Aims and objectives .............................................................................................................. 20 1.3 Study systems ....................................................................................................................... 21 1.3.1 Bolivia ............................................................................................................................ 22 1.3.2 Mesoamerica ................................................................................................................ 25 1.4 Thesis outline ........................................................................................................................ 27 1.5 Other research and policy ..................................................................................................... 32 1.6 Research positionality ........................................................................................................... 34 Chapter 2 Theoretical Background ....................................................................................................... 39 2.1 Linking science and policy/practice in conservation and IWT .............................................. 40 2.2 The illegal wildlife trade (IWT) .............................................................................................. 47 2.3 The illegal wildlife trade in Latin America ............................................................................. 53 2.4 The illegal trade in big cats for Asian markets ...................................................................... 56 2.5 Human-jaguar dynamics and conservation importance ....................................................... 59 2.6 Methodological approach and ethics ................................................................................... 64 2.6.1 Key informant interviews .............................................................................................. 64 2.6.2 Questionnaire surveys .................................................................................................. 66 2.6.3 Sensitive questioning techniques ................................................................................. 67 2.6.4 Ethical considerations for studying sensitive behaviours ............................................. 69 Chapter 3 Prevalence and characteristics of illegal jaguar trade in north-western Bolivia .................. 71 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 73 3.2 Methods: ............................................................................................................................... 75 6 3.2.1 Study site, village and participant selection: ................................................................ 75 3.2.2 Survey Instrument and Questioning Techniques .......................................................... 78 3.2.3 Data analysis ................................................................................................................. 81 3.3 Results ................................................................................................................................... 83 3.3.1 Socioeconomic
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