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Reading Russia Right 3 SPECIAL EDITION 42 October 2005 SUMMARY After the fall of Communism, Reading Russia reverted to czarism. Russia Right But more importantly, Russia embraced capitalism. Although Dmitri Trenin Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace not democratic, Russia is largely free. Property rights are ore than twenty years after Russian leader understanding of what today’s Russia is and more deeply anchored than MMikhail Gorbachev began his policies of where it is headed. Available analyses of Russia perestroika and glasnost that led to the end of barely scratch the surface and are either too short they were five years ago, and the Cold War, a chill has entered relations sighted in their outlook or politically motivated. the once-collectivist society is between Russia and the West. Even as President These are serious and potentially dangerous Vladimir Putin prepares to assume the presi- flaws. Effective Western policies toward Russia going private. Indeed, private dency of the G-8, he is frequently criticized for demand a close, cool, and dispassionate view of consumption is the main driver taking Russia in the wrong direction. The very fundamental developments there. people who in 2000 called Putin a man with of economic growth. Russia’s whom they could do business are having second Russian Politics: Free but Not Democratic future now depends heavily on thoughts. Those once fascinated by Putin now publicly rebuke him. As they were exiting from communism in the how fast a middle class— Putin is shooting back, accusing the West of 1990s, most nations initially reached back, trying to weaken and dismember Russia. As almost instinctively, to their immediate pre- a self-identified group with politicians in the United States and Europe communist pasts. The Baltic states revived personal stakes in having a compare him to Mugabe or Mussolini, Putin’s their constitutions of the 1930s, the Armeni- aides invoke the Munich appeasers who tried to ans and the Azeris revived their political par- law-based government push Hitler eastward. In his September 4, 2005, ties of the late 1910s, and Eastern Europe, accountable to tax payers— address following the Beslan school tragedy, with the exception of East Germany, which Putin himself blamed the West for trying to promptly reunited with the Federal Republic, can be created. The West needs channel Muslim radicalism toward Russia. The once again became Mitteleuropa. This revival to take the long view, stay Kremlin now brands the so-called color revolu- of the past was a source of concern for West tions in Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan as a Europeans and Americans, who feared the engaged, and maximize contacts, Western ploy to install pro-American regimes reemergence of historical enmities and ten- especially with younger on Russia’s periphery and then to engineer a sions. These fears were realized in the former regime change in Russia itself. Yugoslavia, and they underpinned the dual Russians. I There is confusion in Western policies enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty toward Russia, in large measure resulting from Organization (NATO) and the European disillusionment but also rooted in profound mis- Union (EU). 2 Policy Brief Russia also reached backward to czarism, reigned, he was the real constitution. “Czar although initially this was not obvious. Boris Boris” was not interested in institution building, Yeltsin banned the Communist Party, dis- only in keeping his position as the supreme mantled the Soviet Union, was friendly to the arbiter. Thus, Putin is not destroying democratic West, tolerated open debate, and privatized institutions, which never existed in the first the economy. He was given the benefit of the place, but is the top bureaucrat controlling a doubt in Washington and the European capi- huge government bureaucracy, for which he sees tals, and his anti-communism was elevated to no need and, frankly, no possibility for demo- a surrogate of democracy. cratic institutions. But the picture Russia presented to the The czarist analogy is very bad news for outside world in the 1990s was massively dis- optimists who saw Russia becoming another torted. Russia was doubtless freer than ever Poland or joining post–World War II Dmitri Trenin is senior associ- before in all respects—both good and bad. Germany in thoroughly cleansing itself from ate and deputy director of the Parliament was lively but essentially power- its past. However, this analogy is more accu- Carnegie Moscow Center. He less. The electronic media were routinely crit- rate than the often used neo-Soviet one. Of retired from the Russian Army ical of the authorities but were owned by a course, calling the current regime czarist does after a military career that handful of people, known as oligarchs, and not mean that there is no difference between included participating in the depended on their owners’ tastes, interests, the Russia of 2005 and 1913, but it does Geneva strategic arms control and fates. The oligarchs were allowed to pri- mean that Russia is back on its historical path negotiations and teaching at vatize the best parts of the economy, and in of development—roughly at the point where the Military Institute. Trenin collusion with the top bureaucracy, they took things started to go wrong—and has a chance was the first Russian officer over vital parts of the state. Yeltsin’s election of doing better this time. victory in 1996 and his handover of power to to be selected for the NATO Putin, like a king to his dauphin, tell us more A New Beginning Defense College and is a about his regime of electoral monarchy than Russia does not have to relive its tragic history. member of the International almost anything else. It would be a mistake to The domestic situation, the global environment, Institute of Strategic Studies. burnish Yeltsin’s reputation in order to brand and the historical memory of its people all mili- He holds a Ph.D. from the Putin as a renegade. tate for a better future. A close observer would Institute of the U.S.A. and Putin’s regime is openly czarist, a term note that Russia is like Western Europe in the Canada (1984), and was a more precise than “authoritarian,” which sense that it will have to advance economically, senior fellow at the Institute evokes the image of a traditional trains- socially, and politically, by itself and in stages. It of Europe from 1993 to 1997. running-on-time dictatorship. The defining is not like Central Europe, which could luckily He is the author of numerous element in present-day Russia is that the pres- fast-forward through some of these stages articles and books on Russian idency, or rather the president, a modern czar, because of its NATO–EU membership. security issues, including is the only functioning institution. A czar This distinction means that we need to be Russia’s Restless Frontier: The may be strong or weak, given to liberal or more careful in using the language of democ- Chechnya Factor in Post- reactionary ideas, but he is the sole decision racy when talking about Russia. Democracy maker. Putin’s Duma is much like that of everywhere in the West has been a fairly late Soviet Russia (Carnegie, 2004) Nicholas II, docile and acquiescent, while child of capitalism because it requires a self- and a forthcoming book on many of his governors are also like Nicholas’ conscious middle class to take root and flour- Russia and the new West, governor-generals. The capitalism now being ish. This can only be produced by successful which will be published in practiced is dependent on the authorities and and sustained capitalist development. Russia Russian by the Carnegie plays no independent role in politics. Indeed, is currently generating this kind of develop- Moscow Center in 2006. This politics in Russia today is court-driven and ment, but the process will take time. brief is based on an editorial essentially Byzantine. Democracy can only consolidate in a country published in the Taipei Times, This does not, however, constitute a rollback when the bulk of its society has standards well March 21, 2005. of democracy in contrast to the Yeltsin era. above minimal subsistence levels; otherwise Yeltsin may have enacted Russia’s first demo- an attempt to install democratic government cratic constitution, but in reality, as long as he will produce populism. Reading Russia Right 3 We also need to distinguish between rary Russia. This situation, truly unique democracy and freedom. Freedom comes first among post-communist and post-Soviet coun- and, through the cultivation of responsibility, tries, was self-defeating for the first batch of prepares the ground for a democratic polity. Russia’s liberal reformers. Russia, though undemocratic, is largely free. The need now is for a kind of hard- It is this freedom to worship, make money, headed liberalism that stands for freedom, and move around that pushes the country reform, and the Russian nation-state. In prin- forward: Freedom favors the activists. Politics, ciple, this brand of liberalism can emerge however, is the one area where this freedom is from the ranks of the new bourgeoisie and currently missing. the rising urban middle classes. A 2005 At present, Russia’s politics belongs to a INDEM report estimates that Russian busi- narrow and self-absorbed elite. Its antiquated nesspeople pay $316 billion in bribes annu- system of government by bureaucracy is both ally; they can hardly be expected to carry wasteful and dysfunctional. If the country is such a burden indefinitely, especially since to move forward along the path of democ- bribes do not always guarantee results. At racy, its leaders must agree about who owns some point, businesspeople are likely to start what, who makes the rules, and how to organizing themselves, first at the local level, change the rules.
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