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February 22-28, 2018

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February 22-28, 2018 רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ה ש ל מ ( ( למ מ"ל Spotlight on Global Jihad February 22-28, 2018 Main events of the week The focus of the fighting in Syria has been moved to the area of eastern Ghouta (east of Damascus), where the Syrian forces are attacking (with Russian air support) in order to remove the threat of the rebels from the Syrian capital. The fighting in eastern Ghouta continues even after the UN Security Council resolution on a general ceasefire throughout Syria and President Putin’s order of a daily “humanitarian pause.” The shift in the focus of the fighting to eastern Ghouta gave a timeout to the rebel organizations in the Idlib region, mainly the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham. The pause was utilized by the organization for making preparations on the ground for the (anticipated) Syrian attack on Idlib. At the same time, internal clashes continued between the rebel organizations in the Idlib region, weakening the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham. In various provinces in Iraq, the Iraqi security forces continue to exert pressure on local ISIS networks. This week, many ISIS operatives were killed and detained and weapons were seized. ISIS still finds it difficult to adequately respond to the Iraqi activity. According to Jordanian media reports, the Jordanian General Intelligence Directorate uncovered an ISIS network of 17 operatives in November 2017. The network planned to carry out attacks on a number of targets, including Israeli businessmen who regularly visit a clothing factory in Jordan. Russia and the United States The arrival of two advanced fighter planes in Syria According to Russian media reports, two Su-57 fighter jets landed at Hmeymim base on February 12, 2018, along with four Su-35s and an A-50 early warning aircraft. Su-57 is a two- engine fighter aircraft with stealth capability, equipped with new generation advanced missile systems (Wikipedia; Zvezda TV website, August 11, 2017). A source at the Russian 052-18 2 Ministry of Defense said that the aircraft arrived as part of a “mission to test the aircraft’s performance under real conditions” (RBK, February 22, 2018). Russian military sources said that the aircraft would not participate in the fighting in Syria (Sputnik, February 26, 2018). Damage to a Russian site in eastern Ghouta1 According to a report by the Russian Center for Reconciliation, “armed groups” operating in the area of eastern Ghouta fired at residential areas and hotels in the suburbs of Damascus. On February 20, 2018, more than ten mortar shells were fired at the Russian Center for Reconciliation (Russian Defense Ministry website, February 20, 2018). According to a source close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the attackers belonged to the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the attack caused minor damage to the infrastructure of the Russian Center for Reconciliation (Kommersant, February 20, 2018). At present, it is not clear whether the Russian Center for Reconciliation was the target of the attack, or whether it was a case of collateral damage. The United States Daniel R. Coats, US Director of National Intelligence (DNI), presented the US intelligence community’s Worldwide Threats Assessment. The document estimates that ISIS and Al-Qaeda will continue to pose a threat to the interests and partners of the US around the world. With regard to ISIS, the estimate is that in the coming year, the organization is expected to focus on reorganizing in Syria and Iraq while strengthening its global presence. ISIS’s claim that it has a functioning caliphate that controls a population is incorrect. However, the organization’s core is still operating in Iraq and Syria, as part of its long-term strategy of reestablishing the Caliphate. According to the document, it is likely that ISIS will continue to prioritize terrorist attacks abroad. This is because its leadership may believe that if ISIS attacks continue to dominate the public discourse, and if the organization’s narrative continues to be popular, it will be hard for the Coalition to present ISIS as a defeated organization (DNI website, Worldwide Threats Assessment, February 13, 2018). 1Ghouta is the name of the orchard area that surrounds the city of Damascus on the east (eastern Ghouta) and on the west (western Ghouta). These orchards are irrigated by canals from the Barada River, which have turned Damascus, located on the outskirts of the desert, into an oasis. Villages were established in the area of the orchards. Over the years, the villages grew into towns and cities located in the Damascus region. The Arabic word ghouta means fertile oasis located in a valley with streams, gardens and vegetation. 052-18 3 Main developments in Syria The fighting in Eastern Ghouta Fighting in Syria focused this week on eastern Ghouta, where the Syrian forces (with Russian air support) carry out airstrikes and ground attacks in order to remove the rebel threat from Damascus. On February 24, 2018, the UN Security Council adopted a unanimous resolution calling for a 30-day general ceasefire throughout Syria. According to the resolution, all parties are required to allow the UN convoys safe, unimpeded and sustained access to all areas. The Security Council also called on all parties to lift the siege from populated areas such as eastern Ghouta, the Yarmouk Basin (controlled by ISIS, in the southern Golan Heights), Al-Fu'ah and Kafraya (two Shiite villages about seven km northeast of Idlib, besieged by the rebel organizations). President Putin ordered daily “humanitarian pauses” to allow for the evacuation of civilians suffering from severe difficulties. The UN Security Council resolution notes that the ceasefire does not apply to military operations against ISIS, Al-Qaeda, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and other organizations described by the Security Council as “terrorist organizations” (the UN official website, February 25, 2018). Excluding these organizations from the ceasefire agreement gives legitimacy to the Syrian regime (and Russia, which supports it) to carry on with the military activity against the rebel organizations in eastern Ghouta. The campaign to take over the Idlib area Shifting the main site of the fighting to Eastern Ghouta allowed the rebel organizations, mainly the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, a temporary lull in the Idlib area. The operatives used the temporary lull to prepare for defense against the Syrian forces. The preparations on the ground focused on the town of Saraqib, about 16 km southeast of Idlib. The town is situated on an important junction near the main Damascus-Hama-Aleppo highway. The rebel organizations blocked the roads leading to Idlib with embankments of sand and earth; placed snipers on areas dominating the routes, and reinforced the checkpoints on roads leading to Idlib (Butulat Al-Jaysh Al-Suri, February 26, 2018). On the other hand, the Syrian forces, which finished mopping up most of the area east of the Hama-Aleppo road, halted their advance toward Aleppo for the time being and shifted their attention to the fighting in eastern Ghouta. 052-18 4 In the meantime, internal confrontations between the rebel organizations in the Idlib area continue. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, which is the dominant organization in this area, moved armored vehicles and heavy weapons from Idlib to fight against the “Front for the Liberation of Syria” (a rebel organization which was established recently by merging the Ahrar Al-Sham and Nour Al-Din Al-Zenki organizations). The trigger for this move was the Ahrar Al-Sham organization’s takeover of a hangar belonging to the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham near the Turkish border, about 35 km north of Idlib (Furat Post Facebook page, February 27, 2018). Tanks and artillery of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham transferred from Idlib to fight rival rebel organizations (Furat Post Facebook page, February 27, 2018) Armed operatives of the Ahrar Al-Sham organization at a hangar belonging to the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham (Furat Post Facebook page, February 27, 2018) Yarmouk refugee camp area According to a Syrian opposition news website, ISIS recently sent a number of operatives to the area south of Damascus. The arrival of these operatives had an effect on the confrontations between ISIS and the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham. One of 052-18 5 the new arrivals is called Abu Ahmad al-Iraqi, the new official in charge of ISIS’s Sharia office in southern Damascus. At the same time, ISIS operatives south of Damascus received large sums of money, allowing the organization to pay salaries, which were recently denied from its operatives (revospring.com, February 21, 2018). A Lebanese news website and Syrian media outlets reported that an agreement had been reached between the Syrian regime and operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham on the operative’s evacuation from the Yarmouk refugee camp. According to the agreement, operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham will be evacuated to northern Syria (probably to the Idlib area). In return, dozens of wounded people (according to another version, 160 wounded and sick people) will be evacuated from the besieged Shiite villages of Kafraya and Al-Fu'ah (about 7 km northeast of Idlib). The Red Crescent will supervise the implementation of the agreement. Furthermore, according to the agreement, several operatives of the militias supporting the Syrian regime, who are currently detained by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, will be released. The sides are reportedly still discussing the manner of implementation of the agreement (Al-Modon, February 21, 2018); Khotwa; Al-Durar Al-Shamiya, February 25, 2018).
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