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WHAT MOTIVATES RUSSIA? THE ROLE OF WAHHABISM IN RUSSIAN COOPERATION WITH CHINA IN THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION (SCO) by MICHAEL D. ZBORAY A Dissertation submitted to the Graduate School-Newark Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Program in Global Affairs written under the direction of Professor Simon Reich and approved by _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ Newark, New Jersey October 2016 © 2016 Michael D. Zboray ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION What Motivates Russia? The Role of Wahhabism in Russian Cooperation with China in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) By MICHAEL D. ZBORAY Dissertation Advisor: Professor Simon Reich This dissertation was made possible by a nationally competitive fellowship from IREX. I received six months of financial support from IREX’s Individual Advanced Research Opportunities Program (IARO) that funds policy-relevant research in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia. The fellowship was sponsored by the U.S. Department of State and allowed me to conduct field research in Moscow and Kazan between January 2014 and July 2014. I also traveled to Shanghai and Beijing for a total of four weeks to interview Chinese researchers. This fieldwork consisted of archival research and semi- structured interviews with policy experts. I use both qualitative and quantitative approaches including a modified Q-analysis to derive findings. The dissertation focuses on analyzing Russia’s motivations for participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an understudied, yet vital, regional organization – the largest in the world. The Russian-Chinese relationship is the fulcrum of a broader membership that includes eighteen other members, notably India and Pakistan. My research specifically addresses the question: “Why does Russia cooperate with China in the SCO given decades of political tensions between Moscow and Beijing?” In order to answer this question, I examine three main explanations for Russian participation in the SCO based on geopolitics, economics, and internal security. My ii primary hypothesis investigates whether Russia collaborates with China to safeguard itself from Wahhabi-inspired terrorism. My research concludes with theoretical and policy findings in the final chapter. I will briefly recapitulate four main points. First, anti-Americanism has not translated into a decisively anti-American vector for the SCO. Second, Russia’s rapprochement with China is not primarily due to increases in the sale of natural gas and oil. Moreover, Russia interprets China's plans for trade liberalization as an indirect way of controlling Central Asia. Third, Russian cooperation with China in the SCO is most likely due to the threat of terrorism. Based on Russia's ongoing conflict with jihadi terrorism and its belief that Saudi Arabia is the primary source of Wahhabism, it is important that Central Asia not become an area that could fuel terrorism. Fourth, my findings also include the results of a crucial case study that I conducted in city of Kazan. The results of the case study provide a secondary test of the primary argument and confirm that Wahhabism may in fact present a wider challenge to Russia. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract of the Dissertation……………………………………………………….…….ii Chapter 1: Introduction and Outline…………………………………………………...1 Observation……………………………………………………………………..1 Puzzle of the Dissertation………………………………………………………2 Question and Significance..................................................................................5 Summary of Explanations for Russian Cooperation with China in the SCO…..11 The SCO as an Instrument for Counterbalancing…….………………..11 The SCO as an Economic Instrument for Pursuing New Markets…….15 The SCO as an Instrument for Enhancing Russia’s Internal Security…20 Organization of the Dissertation………………………………………………27 Chapter 2: Alternative Explanations and Methodology…………………….……..30 First Explanation: Counterbalancing and Structural Realism..……..………..30 Defensive Realism and Counterbalancing…………………………….31 Offensive Realism and Counterbalancing….…………………………35 Application of Defensive Realism for Russia…………………………38 Russia’s Interest with China in the SCO………………………………43 Second Explanation: The Economic Pursuit of New Regional Markets….....45 Commercial Liberalism……………………………………………….47 Market Expansion and Regionalism…………………………………..50 Interests of Russia with China………………………………………...53 Relevance of the SCO……………..…………………………………59 Third Explanation: The SCO and the Formulation of Internal Security….…62 Theoretical Determinants of Terrorism…….………………………….63 Linkage between Terrorism and Religious Extremism….……………67 Jihadism………….……………………………………………..…….69 Wahhabism………..……………………………………………..……71 Centrifugal Forces in Russia: Ethnic Unrest and Wahhabism………..74 Relevance of Terrorism in the SCO…………………………………..81 Methodology for Testing Explanations………….………………………….84 Interviews……………………………………………………………..85 iv Archives……………………………………………………………….89 Data Analysis……………… ………………………………………….89 Chapter 3: Russia, China, and the Development of the SCO within Central Asian Regionalism………………………….………………….……………………………..91 Geostrategic Importance of Central Asia………………………………...91 Historical Interests of Russia and China in Central Asia………………..97 Promotion of a Multipolar World………............…………….……..97 Border Demarcation………………………………………………...99 Trade and Investment……………………………………………….100 Jihadi Terrorism……………………………………………………...101 Regional Organizations and Sovereignty…………………………….104 Regionalism in Central Asia: Sovereignty and Issue Areas……………110 Russian and Chinese Interaction in Central Asia……………………….115 Development of the SCO……………………………………………….119 Issue Areas in the SCO…………………………………………………124 Security Issues……………..……………………………………….125 Trade and Development………………..…………………………...131 Energy………………………………………………..……………..135 Conclusion……………………………………………………………...141 Chapter 4: Russian Perception of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.…...144 Context of Russian Cooperation with China………………………………...148 Geopolitical Hypothesis Results: Confirmatory Data……………………….153 Qualitative Information……… ……………………………………153 Russian Perception of American Policy……………………..153 The Role of the SCO and American Power………………….156 Quantitative Information…………………………………………..159 Geopolitical Hypothesis Results: Contradictory Data……………………….160 Qualitative Information…………….………………………………160 Quantitative Information…….……………………………………..164 Economic Hypothesis Results: Confirmatory Data………………………….165 Qualitative Information …….……………………………………...165 Russia’s Economic Objectives in Relation to China………...165 The SCO in Meeting Russia’s Economic Objectives………..168 v Quantitative Information……….…………………………………..170 Economic Hypothesis Results: Contradictory Data………………………….171 Qualitative Information……………….……………………………171 The Difficulty of Economic Cooperation……………………171 The Challenge to Russian Leadership in the Region………...173 Quantitative Information…………………………………………..176 Internal Security Hypothesis Results: Confirmatory Data…………………...177 Qualitative Information……………………………………………177 Threats to the Internal Security of Russia……………………177 Importance of Central Asia to Russian Internal Security……181 The SCO in Confronting Internal Security Threats…………..178 China and the SCO in Security and Economic Development..191 Quantitative Information…………………………………………..193 Internal Security Hypothesis Results: Contradictory Data…………………..194 Qualitative Information……………………………………………194 Quantitative Information…………………………………………..197 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………...198 Chapter 5: China’s Perception of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization…….206 Context of Russian-Chinese Cooperation……………………………………210 China’s View on the Geopolitical Hypothesis for China………..…………...213 Confirmatory Data………………………………………………...213 Contradictory Data………………………………………………...215 China’s View on the Economic Hypothesis for China………………………219 Confirmatory Data………………………….……………………...219 Contradictory Data………………………………………………...223 China’s View on the Internal Security Hypothesis for China………………..226 Confirmatory Data………………….……………………………...226 Contradictory Data………………………………………………...237 China’s View on the Geopolitical Hypothesis for Russia……….…………...238 Confirmatory Data…………….…………………………………...238 Contradictory Data………………….……………………………...240 China’s View on the Economic Hypothesis for Russia…….………………...241 Confirmatory Data………………………………….……………...241 Contradictory Data…………………………………….…………...242 vi China’s View on the Internal Security Hypothesis for Russia…….…………244 Confirmatory Data………………………….……………………...244 Contradictory Data…………………………….…………………...246 Perceptions of Shared Geopolitical Interests………………………………...246 Confirmatory Data…………………….…………………………...246 Contradictory Data………….……………………………………...247 Perceptions of Shared Economic Interests.…………………………………..248 Confirmatory Data……………….………………………………...248 Contradictory Data………………………………………………...248 Perceptions of Shared Internal Security Interests……………………………249 Confirmatory Data………….……………………………………...249 Contradictory Data………………………………………………...251 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………251 Chapter 6: Wahhabism’s Threat to Russia………………………………………….259 Co-Existence in Tatarstan and the Theoretical Background…………………261 Relationship between Economic Well-Being and Terrorism……..…………..261 Economic and Demographic Characteristics of Tatarstan……….…………...265 Social Foundation for Co-Existence:

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