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Museveni's Wars UNIVERSITEIT GENT FACULTEIT POLITIEKE EN SOCIALE WETENSCHAPPEN Museveni’s Wars Military interventions as a tool of regime stability Wetenschappelijke verhandeling aantal woorden: 26967 Martijn Engels MASTERPROEF MANAMA CONFLICT AND DEVELOPMENT PROMOTOR: PROF. DR. Koen Vlassenroot COMMISSARIS: DR. Tomas Van Acker ACADEMIEJAAR 2015 – 2016 Inzagerecht in de masterproef (*) Ondergetekende, …………………………………………………….Martijn Engels geeft hierbij toelating / geen toelating (**) aan derden, niet- behorend tot de examencommissie, om zijn/haar (**) proefschrift in te zien. Datum en handtekening …………………………..16 Augustus 2016 …………………………. Deze toelating geeft aan derden tevens het recht om delen uit de scriptie/ masterproef te reproduceren of te citeren, uiteraard mits correcte bronvermelding. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (*) Deze ondertekende toelating wordt in zoveel exemplaren opgemaakt als het aantal exemplaren van de scriptie/masterproef die moet worden ingediend. Het blad moet ingebonden worden samen met de scriptie onmiddellijk na de kaft. (**) schrappen wat niet past ________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 Abstract Deze verhandeling zal aan de hand van de Oegandese militaire interventies in het buitenland onderzoeken op welke manier militaire ontplooiingen in het buitenland gebruikt worden als instrument in het versterken en stabiliseren van een semi-autoritair regime. Vertrekkend vanuit de vier belangrijkste contexten waar Oegandese troepen de laatste twee decennia hebben gevochten, meer bepaald Congo, Somalië, Zuid-Soedan en de Centraal Afrikaanse Republiek, zullen de belangrijkste voordelen voor het regime van president Yoweri Museveni specifiek aan elke context worden ontbloot. Terwijl het theoretisch kader geconstrueerd is uit een kritische reflectie van de bestaande literatuur, is de hoofdmoot van de inzichten voortgekomen uit semigestructureerde interviews afgenomen tijdens een zestiendaagse veldwerkreis naar Kampala. Hiervoor werden parlementariërs, journalisten, onderzoekers en internationale vertegenwoordigers aangesproken. Drie verschillende voordelen konden worden geïdentificeerd: het beschermen tegen rebellengroepen door het uitbreiden van de strategische grenzen; het beïnvloeden van internationale donors om zo toegang te krijgen tot financiële steun en democratische speling; en het voeden van de patrimoniale machtsstructuur in het leger door bevelhebbers de mogelijkheid te geven tot exploitatie van militaire middelen en bezette gebieden. Recent blijken echter enkele tendensen een uitdaging te vormen voor deze voordelen. Een groeiende regionale integratie, het doorwegen van het democratisch deficit en een professionalisering in de legertop vormen meer bepaald de toekomstige uitdagingen voor militaire interventies als een instrument voor regime stabilisatie. 3 Table of Contents ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................... 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 6 1.1. ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK ............................................................................................................. 7 1.2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................... 10 1.3. SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY ................................................................................. 11 1.4. ORGANISATION OF THE DISSERTATION .................................................................................... 11 2. THREE BENEFITS FOR REGIME STABILITY ................................................................... 13 2.1. THE PRINCIPLE OF STRATEGIC DEPTHS ................................................................................... 13 2.1.1. “CROSS-BORDER CLEANING UP” IN THE DRC .......................................................................... 14 2.1.2. UGANDA’S ‘BUFFER STATE’ IN THE NORTH: SOUTH SUDAN .................................................... 19 2.1.3. THE SECURITY RATIONALE IN SOMALIA AND THE CAR .......................................................... 24 2.2. MANAGING DONOR PERCEPTIONS ............................................................................................ 26 2.2.1. BUILDING UGANDA’S IMAGE: ‘THE WAR ON TERROR’ AGAINST THE LRA ............................ 28 2.2.2. ‘SHOWCASE’ SOMALIA ............................................................................................................. 32 2.2.3. NEGLECTED EFFORTS IN SOUTH SUDAN ................................................................................... 35 2.2.4. MISADVENTURES IN THE CONGO ............................................................................................. 37 2.3. NETWORKS OF MILITARY PATRONAGE ................................................................................... 39 2.3.1. SHADOW NETWORKS IN THE DRC ............................................................................................ 41 2.3.2. MILITARY ENTREPRENEURISM AFTER THE DRC ...................................................................... 46 3. INTERVENTIONS AS A TOOL: RECENT CHANGES AND FUTURE CHALLENGES 52 3.1. REGIONAL INTEGRATION OF AFRICAN SECURITY ................................................................... 52 3.2. GROWING IMPATIENCE WITH THE DONOR COMMUNITY ........................................................ 53 3.3. A CHANGE OF GUARD IN THE MILITARY ................................................................................. 55 4. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................. 59 5. BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................................ 62 4 List of Abbreviations ADF: Allied Democratic Forces ADM: Allied Democratic Movement AFDL: Alliance des Forces Démocratiques de Libération AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia AU: African Union CAR: Central African Republic DRC: Democratic Republic of the Congo EASF: East African Standby Force EU: European Union FARDC: Forces Armée de la République démocratique du Congo FUNA: Former Ugandan National Army GoU: Government of Uganda ICC: International Criminal Court IFI: International Financial Institution LRA: Lord’s Resistance Army MLC: Mouvement pour la Libération du Congo MP: Member of Parliament NALU: National Army for the Liberation of Uganda NRM/A: National Resistance Movement/Army RCI-LRA: Regional Cooperation Initiative for the Elimination of the Lord’s Resistance Army RTF: Regional Task Force SFC: Special Forces Command SPLM/A: Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army SSDF: South Sudan Defence Force TCC: Troop Contributing Countries UK: United Kingdom UMLA: Uganda Muslim Liberation Army UN: United Nations UPDF: Uganda People Defence Force US: United States of America WNBLF: West Nile Bank Liberation Front 5 1. Introduction On May 12, 2016, at his fifth Presidential inauguration on Kololo Independence Grounds, Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni boasted “Uganda had been at peace for the first time in 500 years, for many years now (…) Uganda will remain at peace”. Whereas domestically the country has indeed been at peace for some time; abroad, the Ugandan military was at the time of the inauguration engaged on two different fronts: in Somalia and in the Central African Republic. Shortly after the ceremony, on July 14, the Ugandan army crossed the border with South Sudan once more, marking the second Ugandan intervention in the country in five years. In the late 1990s, Uganda was internationally reprimanded for their two invasions into Congolese territories. These examples already refute Museveni’s claim as a bringer of peace. One can say that the will of the president is indisputably the key to foreign policy decision making in Uganda (Clark 2001: 263). Museveni is seen as a major believer in the notion that military instruments are the ultimate expression of a state’s willingness to pursue foreign policy. It was his eagerness to intervene military on foreign soil that has marked Ugandan foreign policy over the last two decades (“Uganda’s foreign policy should not revolve around the President” 2016). Whilst claiming to have brought stability to Uganda after decades of internal struggles, military operations appear to remain the core-business of Museveni. One can ascribe this eagerness to his history as a soldier or his military mind-set, but it could also be possible to discover a correlation between external operations and internal regime stability. Clark (2001: 67) has argued that “foreign policy making in central Africa can most usefully be explained as a direct out-growth of domestic political needs”, identifying the most important domestic political need as regime security. Victor (2010) continued on this line of argument by establishing how African military policy often is used more as a tool to promote regime security than as a response to national security threats. He added to this that “garnering
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